meet the met
bob nightengale of USA today says that Johan Santana is officially a New York Met. All still pending a deal for the Mets to sign Santana. The Twins are getting Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.
link:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-01-29-twins-mets-santana_N.htm
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93 comments
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Re: meet the met
by Brick. on Jan 29, 2008 4:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
by Nat on Jan 29, 2008 4:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by emd2k3 on Jan 29, 2008 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by rolub on Jan 30, 2008 9:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Toxicadam on Jan 29, 2008 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by 7foot3 on Jan 29, 2008 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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On a side note, would you take this package, minus Humber or Mulvey, for Sabathia?
by NickFantana on Jan 29, 2008 5:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by zempf on Jan 29, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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Alex Escobar
by APV on Jan 29, 2008 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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What does everyone think of their haul from this deal? I feel like Humber's stock has fallen a bit, but I know Gomez was pretty highly though of. I thought they were really trying to get Martinez thrown in too, weren't they?
by zempf on Jan 29, 2008 5:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Carlos-Gomez-1.shtml
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Philip-Humber.shtml
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Kevin-Mulvey.shtml
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Deolis-Guerra.shtml
The guy I like the most may be Mulvey, and that's largely because 4 HR in 151 IP is stellar stuff. Gomez hasn't shown much pop or a discerning eye, Humber looks good but doesn't have the ceiling, and Guerra is just a baby (who also put up pedestrian numbers).
I guess the only thing that makes sense is that the package Santana wants dictates that the other bidding teams' offers weren't as high as reported. In other words, the cost of acquiring him is the contract as much as the players involved. Even that explanation is weak, though, I admit.
by Thommy on Jan 29, 2008 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
by afh4 on Jan 30, 2008 1:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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Gomez looks pretty nice though if you take into consideration his speed and some projection of power. Mulvey could be a decent back end rotation starter and Humber at this point is only that good as well barring a return to pre-TJ Humber
by hans on Jan 30, 2008 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
"Yes! Yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes, oh happy day!"
by maledicta on Jan 29, 2008 5:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by Turkmenbashi on Jan 29, 2008 5:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
Liriano (pending injury)
Boof Bonser
Scott Baker
Matt Garza
Phil Humber?
Yeah, I'll take ours.
by maledicta on Jan 29, 2008 5:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by maledicta on Jan 29, 2008 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
kevin slowey and glen perkins are rotation candidates
maybe they'll also look to ramon ortiz and sydney ponson again, if we are lucky.
by rick on Jan 29, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
by Roger Dorn on Jan 29, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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So, would this mean that the Yankees actually did "leave the table", so to speak?
by Toxicadam on Jan 29, 2008 5:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by emil minty on Jan 29, 2008 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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i think you have to give some deference to the twins when it comes to identifying talent.
johan santana himself may turn out to be the best rule five pick ever, and that's a list that includes roberto clemente.
i think the twinkies know how to pick arms, for sure. if there's any criticism, it's in their lack of offensive prospects.
but give them some credit for mauer, morneau, cuddyer, and the likes of jacque jones and torii hunter. that's a lot more that some teams have produced in the last 10 years.
by rick on Jan 29, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
and some scouts still think ellsbury's value is at an all-time high right now, and that he's closer to the .740OPS player he was in 363 AAA ABs last season before having an unreal 116 ABs with the big club.
think coco crisp in his last two years in cleveland.
by rick on Jan 29, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
by Gradyforpresident on Jan 29, 2008 6:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by Jay on Jan 29, 2008 6:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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I would have taken the yankers offer too, but I am glad they didn't.
It looks like the twins are going to be where we were in 03-04, but they have a considerable head start with Liriano, Mauer, Nathan, et al. As of now they may be average, but in a few years they should be fearsome.
With the big two getting hip to keeping their young players, it may lead to a leveling off of salary escalation, which can only help us.
by pdx on Jan 29, 2008 6:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by Nof on Jan 29, 2008 9:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Nof on Jan 29, 2008 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by pdx on Jan 29, 2008 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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And in the end, a team with a bigger budget will be more able to take a risk on a free agent. I see the biggest difference between the small market teams (ie Indians) and the big market teams (ie Red Sox/Yankees) exemplified by the JD Drew signing. If we had that contract, we wouldn't be able to do anything. On the other hand, the Red Sox were looking at acquiring Santana and giving him a $150M contract despite the fact that they already had $30.5M locked up in pitching for 2007.
by Nat on Jan 30, 2008 7:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
by Roger Dorn on Jan 29, 2008 7:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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Between that and Santana leaving the AL Central, I like the trade from an Indians fan's perspective.
by Ryan on Jan 29, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by nickjs21 on Jan 29, 2008 7:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by NickFantana on Jan 29, 2008 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by nickjs21 on Jan 29, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
The other one of the Nicks: "How much?"
Such was life that fateful day at LGT. The day Santana left America's League.
by Brick. on Jan 29, 2008 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by nickjs21 on Jan 30, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by nickjs21 on Jan 31, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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Every AL Central Division team plays every other Central Division team, what, 16 games/year or so. They all will face any pitcher about the same number of times. Teams from other divisions in the AL have a slight advantage for the wild card because they only face Central Division teams 6 times/year and so are likely to face Santana two fewer times than the Indians will.
All of which is to say, a player switching leagues is incredibly unlikely to make a damn bit of difference within the division.
by madherb on Jan 29, 2008 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by Roger Dorn on Jan 29, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Jay on Jan 29, 2008 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by rustyparts on Jan 29, 2008 7:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by Jay on Jan 29, 2008 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Brick. on Jan 29, 2008 7:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by Jay on Jan 29, 2008 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by rustyparts on Jan 29, 2008 8:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by Ryan Kelsey on Jan 29, 2008 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Voltaire on Jan 29, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Jay on Jan 29, 2008 11:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by crackaddictwhit on Jan 29, 2008 10:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by Jay on Jan 29, 2008 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by emil minty on Jan 30, 2008 12:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
- The Twins are bad at evaluating hitting talent.
- Therefore, the Twins generally would do worse in a trade where all the players coming back were hitters.
- The Twins are bad at developing hitters.
- Therefore, the Twins generally will get a poorer result out of the hitters they acquired than another team might have.
by Jay on Jan 30, 2008 9:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by NickFantana on Jan 30, 2008 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Jay on Jan 31, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
Brick, on the other hand, with spelling errors and all, is posting about .381
by NickFantana on Jan 31, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Brick. on Jan 31, 2008 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
It's sort of a Catch 22 because if I was drinking I would be more brave, more likely to sneak in a drink but I can't start drinking without sneaking in the drink. See what I'm saying?
by NickFantana on Jan 31, 2008 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
Man, I'm ready for the Wire to end and the baseball season to start.
by mauichuck on Jan 31, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by NickFantana on Jan 31, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
Also, what happened to Bubbles in the past two episodes? They had this whole thing going with him getting over Sherod's death and then he disappears. I'm worried for him.
by NickFantana on Jan 31, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by mauichuck on Jan 31, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by jhon on Jan 31, 2008 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Gradyforpresident on Jan 31, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Gradyforpresident on Jan 31, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Gradyforpresident on Jan 31, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Gradyforpresident on Jan 31, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by NickFantana on Jan 31, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Gradyforpresident on Jan 31, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by nickjs21 on Jan 31, 2008 8:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Gradyforpresident on Jan 31, 2008 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by CaptainPenny on Jan 29, 2008 11:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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by Ohiokie on Jan 30, 2008 8:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
I think the perceived value of Johan Santana was considerably higher among fans than in actuality. Granted, this stance requires one to believe that the "other" packages were either false or taken off the table once Cashman and Epstein understood Santana's demands.
That last part is the key one for me. Trying to be clear: I think the team acquiring Sanatana was essentially purchasing, with prospects, the right to negotiate an incredibly, incredibly expensive deal with him.
So, right off the bat this reduces the market to 3, maybe 5 teams in MLB. While it's counterintuitive to say that Santana might've had more value had he been available as a rental, I think it might be accurate. If Santana did not demand an extension to go with his trade, then the Twins might've been able to get additional teams into the race and drive the price up. I'm thinking of a team like the Rockies or Diamondbacks or something; teams that don't want to extend Santana but think they have a window of opportunity for next year.
So, if you believe that Santana could only go to a max of 5 teams, then I don't think it's a huge leap of faith that the Twins went to each of those teams, had some preliminary talks (where we got leaks of Hughes/Cabrera+), and in the course of those talks, the extent of Johan's contract demands came out. Those teams decided that the price in prospects+cash was much too rich and either reduced their packages or pulled out of the race.
This is my round-about theory about how what the Mets paid was, in fact, market value for Santana. I am creating this argument largely because I find it impossible to believe that Minyana bullied the Twins around. That seems inconceivable.
I guess what I need as evidence is for Santana to sign a 7/155 deal, something so rich that I can even see Boston and NYY walking away.
In an odd way, I see it as a parallel for the Matsuzaka posting, except that the posting fee is lower because they know no reasonable contract will be agreed upon.
My other two theories are thus:
1-The Twins scouting staff is still in place and they believed these were the best pitchers available. That sounds insane, but this staff found Santana, found Liriano, found Nathan. If they really wanted these pitchers, I'm inclined to think they're right. If this is the case, I think Deolis is the key to the deal. He's the only one raw enough that I'm prepared to say scouts could have a totally different and correct read on him.
2-If Bill Smith is an idiot, maybe he drew a line in the sand and said "I will not keep Santana in the AL." It makes sense in some weird way, if you think "My team wants to win the WS, any NYY or BOS team with Santana will be better, therefore I cannot trade him within the AL since no one else can pay the price to sign him."
3-The Steinbrenner boys decided to show off and refuse to play. If that happened, I can see how this package is seen as better than Boston's. I don't really like Lester or Ellsbury. I'd still take them over this group I think but I can see it.
But, if he did that, then I think he essentially reduced the bidders to the Mets and maybe a half-hearted Dodgers. So, he had to try to get Minyana to bid against himself.
Or, maybe the other packages just aren't as good as I think and I've lost my mind as an observer. But it seems insane to me to leave any package with Hughes alone and take this one. Hell, I might take just Hughes instead of this one. I'd think about it.
by afh4 on Jan 30, 2008 1:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
Honestly, after the off-season the Yankees had, I'd believe that the new Steinbrenner is full of doo-doo and Cashman really has things under control in New York. There was not a single trademark over-paying move, unless you count re-signing Rivera, which I would contend the Yankees almost had to do from a PR perspective.
by NickFantana on Jan 30, 2008 9:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: meet the met
A fourth alternative theory, currently making the rounds among Aaron Gleeman's commenters, is that Santana himself suddenly gave Smith a deadline of now to complete a deal or he would invoke his no-trade clause and walk at the end of the season, and the Mets' current offer was the best Smith could do immediately. Seems pretty farfetched to me--more of a "stabbed in the back" rationalization by disappointed Twins fans--but I suppose it is at least theoretically possible.
As a Tribe fan I am pleased Santana is leaving the AL, but I can't help feeling a twinge of regret as well. I live in Minneapolis and it was a neat feeling to know that, fifteen or sixteen times a year, I only had to drive a few blocks (Twins fans being notorious frontrunners, the Metrodome was almost never sold out) to see the best pitcher in baseball. I usually made it down at least once or twice a season (most recently on Labor Day, when he and his team got shut out by CC and company) and it makes me sad to think that will never happen again.
by Jackdaw on Jan 30, 2008 3:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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I can hear E5 now, "with Santana gone the Indians lose at least 4 wins. Next year's projected record: 82 and 80"
by mauichuck on Jan 30, 2008 6:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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I never thought of it that way, but I agree. Good point.
by Pronk33 on Jan 30, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by gte619n on Jan 30, 2008 8:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Turkmenbashi on Jan 30, 2008 9:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Toxicadam on Jan 30, 2008 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by drerikbrady on Jan 30, 2008 9:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by NickFantana on Jan 30, 2008 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Toxicadam on Jan 30, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by NickFantana on Jan 30, 2008 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by fwembt on Jan 30, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Voltaire on Jan 30, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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