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Swisher Traded to White Sox

The Oakland A's traded outfielder Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox for left-handed pitcher Gio Gonzalez, right-handed pitcher Fautino De Los Santos and outfielder Ryan Sweeney.

Based on potential, the White Sox gave up an awful lot to get Swisher. It will be interesting to see how this trade is viewed a few years down the road.

Star-divide

Here's the link: http://www.insidebayarea.com/sports/ci_7872666

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Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I'd agree...at first glance this looks like a (potential) big win for the A's

by APV on Jan 3, 2008 2:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Did Shapiro forget to pay his phone bill this offseason?

by Tribe Alive on Jan 3, 2008 2:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Swisher > Dellucci+Michaels

This (and trading for Dan Haren) is exactly the kind of the move the Indians should be making. They could have dumped Dellucci somewhere (St. Louis), traded Michaels, and have been able to use either Francisco or Choo as the fourth outfielder.

Makes too much sense, I guess.

by Ryan on Jan 3, 2008 3:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I'd dump both Dellucci and Michaels to keep Francisco and Choo for LF & backups for CF/RF. I'd also take a look at Barton, if he comes back from rule 5, as a 4th outfielder.

by kov on Jan 3, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Let's not get too crazy here. I like Francisco, but not as a starting left fielder.

by Ryan on Jan 3, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Crazy? Risky perhaps, but not crazy.

Compare the situation to 3B in 2007 when the Tribe gave the starting job to a guy who in AAA the year before hit .267/.309/.766 with 0 SB.

At least BF hit .318/.382/.878 with 11 SB in AAA in 2007 (and was named the most exciting player in the International League by the managers).

by kov on Jan 3, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
At least BF hit .318/.382/.878 with 11 SB in AAA in 2007 (and was named the most exciting player in the International League by the managers).

Actually, he had 22 stolen bases. Either way, it's not enough for me to trade David Dellucci (even if he's coming off an injury-marred season) to start him. Francisco's 26 and he put those numbers up in his second full season in AAA. He's not that good, and I've been a Francisco fan for awhile.

by Ryan on Jan 3, 2008 9:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
What if gasp the other teams didn't want to do that?

by Voltaire on Jan 3, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
No. I think it's clear Shapiro has jumped the shark. We need a new GM in here if we want to compete.
Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Jan 3, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
What, trade for Dellucci? Worry about that after the trade.

by Ryan on Jan 3, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Good to see I'm not the only one that was thinking along those lines. Hard to believe Shap has "missed out" on some of these players, given what their trade value ended up being.
Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Jan 3, 2008 3:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
OK, well, let's play the equivalents game.  Here's my first try (feel free to disagree/correct):

Gonzalez = Laffey
De Los Santos = Jeff Stevens
Sweeney = Francisco

So we're giving up Laffey/Stevens/Francisco for Swisher.  I think I'd do that if we're confident we can move Delluci/Michaels for prospects.

by NickFantana on Jan 3, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I'd say that Gio Gonzalez has way more upside than Laffy.

by gte619n on Jan 3, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Sweeney's not that good. I'd use Brad Snyder instead, and that might be pushing it.

by Ryan on Jan 3, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Also! Lofgren's a better comp for Gonzalez.

by Ryan on Jan 3, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I'd put one of our young guys from Lake County as the De Los Santos equivalent...maybe Hector Rondon

by APV on Jan 3, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
So we're looking at Lofgren/Snyder/Rondon for Swisher.  

Or, to hear Andrew tell it, Lofgren/Snyder/Jesus on a Brontasaurus.

by NickFantana on Jan 3, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I'll buy the Snyder thing. I've got no love for Sweeney.

I'll leave the Fautino thing be for a moment, right after I drop this link:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6920

And this link:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6912

Again, I hate having to follow this stuff blindly as much as anyone, but I have to believe it's in play here.

by afh4 on Jan 3, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I love you and everything but I think that's a little insane.

Both Fautino and Gio are somewhere between Laffey and Adam Miller in terms of trade value, in my estimation. Fautino is not, as somebody tried to claim, equivalent to Jeff Stevens. I've never seen him pitch or anything but Goldstein gave him 5 stars and his stuff is apparently sick. The numbers are incredible but he's one guy where they're not telling the whole story.

I'd love Nick Swisher; but I think the White Sox overpaid, by a lot, and I'm glad we didn't do the same.

As for the Haren deal, I just think Beane liked the kids from Arizona better.

by afh4 on Jan 3, 2008 3:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
And so I'm not just making things up, a little free content:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/1/3/153310/6909

Sickels' has Gio and Fautino both as B+'s. I'll be surprised Lofgren, Miller, and Laffey all three rate that highly (though I think Laffey will be ineligible).

Here's the Oak list, so you can see who Gio and Fautino are now ahead of:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/1/2/135032/1530

I hate going with scouts as much as anybody but I think this is an instance where there's something that we, as armchair evaluators, can't have a grasp on. Fautino is a better prospect than he appears; he's going to move fast, apparently, and get his age-level stuff resolved.

by afh4 on Jan 3, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Keith Law isn't that high on Gonzalez. He likes the trade for the WSox. From his 1/3 chat.

Quote:
Keith Law: White Sox announced the deal - third player is A-ball pitcher Fautino de los Santos. I like this deal for Chicago.

Quote:
Bryan (Toronto): What are your thoughts on the three guys that Oakland got in the Swisher deal? Kevin Goldstein at BP had them ranked 1st (de los Santos), 2nd (Gonzalez) and 8th (Sweeney) in the Sox system.

Keith Law: de los Santos is the key - two plus pitches, could use a third one to be a starter, decent control. Gio to me is just a back-end guy, going to a good park/defense will help. Sweeney is a 5:00 hitter - great power in BP, no power in games. Has a good swing, good approach, plays a capable CF, but he's got to show some power after 7 pm.

Quote:
Brett (WI): Gio Gonzalez as a back end guy? He had a 3:1 k/bb ratio - which was up from last year, ground ball rate improved a lot, and guys hit .216 off him in the Southern League vs. .236 in A ball. He only gave up 10 HR in 150 IP which was WAY down from the 24 he gave up the year before. All good numbers & all show improvement. Why only a back end guy?

Keith Law: Fringy fastball, overuses his CB (works in the minors, won't work like that in the majors), iffy command.

by ronh on Jan 4, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I love when somebody provides bunch of stats and then gets "fringy fastball" back from a guy who's seen Gio pitch, what, maybe 3 times ever?

Not that Law is necessarily wrong it's just...groan.

by afh4 on Jan 4, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
How is this insane?

Swisher's hurt by his home park - his career road OPS is .840, home OPS is .808. Put him between Martinez and Garko, and he'll won't get pitched around like he did with Oakland.

He's signed through 2011 with an option for 2012. That's 5 years of control, which will probably cover his most productive years.

by Ryan on Jan 3, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I think the price is insane. Not Swisher.

Obviously, the big difference here is in how everyone sees Fautino in relation to the Indians' own farmhands.

by afh4 on Jan 3, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
So, I guess to clarify further, I think we're probably looking at something like:

Lofgren or Laffey/Jeff Stevens or maybe someone like Sipp/Weglarz or Mills as a PTBNL/and a high ceiling low level guy like Roasario.

That, to me, is insane. Of course, there's no good way for me to create equivalent value because I don't really think we have an equivalent players. We have other good players but not exactly the same kind of players.

by afh4 on Jan 3, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Leaving Sweeney out of the equation (to me he has 0 value), I agree with you that the White Sox gave up a lot. But Swisher, given his team-friendly contract, is a really valuable commodity. That's 5 years of .850-.900 OPS with good defense. Is that more valuable than 1 year of Johan Santana? Heck yes.

by Ryan on Jan 3, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Well, we agree, in a vacuum, that Swisher is super valuable. I totally agree. My only knock on Swisher is his hair. And all that damn chewing tobacco.

To really evaluate this though, we have to really decide what the Indians would have to give up.

Looking at some different ranking systems that I sort of trust, for simplicity's sake, Sickels' has it as two B+ guys and a C+ guy, and Goldstein has it as a 5 star guy, a 4 star guy, and a 2 star guy.

I wish Sickels had the Indians list out. It would simplify things.

The A's aren't really trading for need right? 5 Star guys in Goldstein's system are rare, rare things. They are the most elite players, and most systems have 2 of them at the most, at least that's what it looks like anecdotally to me.

So, what's the equivalent?

Can we turn the 5 star into two 4 stars? That means we're trading Hodges, Mills, and Miller, plus someone equivalent to Ryan Sweeney, which in our system Brown, Crowe, or Huff. So, best case, Hodges, Mills, Miller, and Crowe? Oof. That's a lot.

I'd be interested to see what other people thing is an equivalent deal. I'm not really sure.

by afh4 on Jan 3, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I've got your back on this one.  Those are stud pitching prospects that the Sox gave up.  I think your Hodges/Mills/Miller/Crowe package is too much though. I'd substitute Mills for, say, Lofgren and that sounds about right.  Let's think about that though - we're talking a 1/2 starter, a 3/4 starter, and a full time, ML average 3B.  Not bad at all.

Why are we so concerned about who 'won' anyway?

The real question is this - is it going to make any difference to the White Sox with the Tribe and the Tigers being as strong as they are?  I think that's the key issue here - Swisher isn't going to push them over the edge of anything, and I don't think they can compete for 2 years given the competition anyway.  At that time, it's likely that they would rather have back what they just gave up - but that's just my opinion and I can understand arguments either way.

by Thommy on Jan 3, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
The major issue in this thread isn't that this improves the White Sox, but that Swisher was traded, and the Indians didn't get him.  

I know we're all prospect hounds around here, but think what you're saying. Swisher is under Chicago's control at less-than-market rates for the next five seasons, and he's young enough to be among the best corner outfielder in the league for all five of those seasons. That's about as valuable a commodity as has been traded this offseason, and yes, I know Miguel Cabrera was traded last month.

This deal might not make that much sense for the White Sox, but it certainly would for the Indians, who can win now, and who really could use a good left fielder. The trade market is the one arena in which the Indians aren't outgunned because they can match almost any package of players a competitor offers. I understand why they don't want to strip their system to get a rent-a-player, but Swisher and Haren were both signed for long periods of time, which would allow enough time to replace the talent given up.

 

by Ryan on Jan 3, 2008 7:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Yeh, I think his contract was/is a huge factor. That was the prime reason we were so hot on Haren. At least it was mine.

by mcrose on Jan 3, 2008 9:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I certainly agree that Swisher is an extremely valuable commodity, but, as you know, the issue isn't of his value, it's of the cost it would take to attain that value.  Of course the Indians could have gotten him, but apparently the FO felt that his incremental value to our OF wasn't worth what the A's wanted from us, or that the A's were looking for two top pitching prospects, or just liked the package better, or Kenny caught Beane on a good day, or that the Indians FO suspects something about Swisher's career path, or that the A's weren't satisfied with Adam Miller's health record in a deal they had to have an A pitcher, or they weren't looking for a starter to be ready in 2008, but rather 2010 (which is what it looks like to me).  There's so much here we don't know, and in that situation you have to ask if you have faith in your FO to make the right decisions.  Of course, we will never know what the A's wanted from us, so I don't feel that we should condemn our FO for not making a deal.

And it's not fair to mention that the major issue in this thread isn't that it doesn't improve the White Sox to the point of making anything different for them.  True, it's not your issue in this thread, but it was something that occurred to me when thinking about the trade, so I mentioned it.  OK, I didn't stay spot on target to the conversation, but that's hardly a flag-throwing violation in these here parts - especially when it is mentioned as an observation, and not a counter-argument.

by Thommy on Jan 3, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
This is basically what I was going for. Nice job, Tom.

On another point, I agree with Ryan in the since that we have a full cupboard of prospects but I think the lack of elite prospects makes it hard to say that we can always outspend another team, like the White Sox in this instance.

In order for us to outspend the White Sox 3 prospect deal, I think we're realistically looking at a 5 prospect deal and, if they don't like Miller (which it seems Beane doesn't), I think you're looking at a near impossible deal.

Not having that big stick (in the Teddy Roosevelt since, not the Manny Ramirez sense) prospect to swing around makes it much, much harder to make a deal of this magnitude in any reasonable way. Our big stick is Asdrubal in everyone seems to be in agreement that no one can have him.

I honestly don't think we have the pieces to match the White Sox deal. Barring Asdrubal, it's very, very easy to spin either Gio or FDLR as a better prospect than anyone in the Indians system using a combination of stats and scout style rankings. And I don't mean spin in some duplicitous way, I just mean it's an argument that I can easily see Beane buying.

So, at this point, what I see the situation as is Beane looking for the best deal and, let's just imagine it came down to CWS and CLE. All the pieces are on the table and the Indians are offering 5, maybe 6 players, and the White Sox are offering 3. But the 2 that Beane likes the best are part of the CWS deal. It's reasonable, and even sort of swashbucklingly Beane like, to take the two best prospects.

Who could we honestly throw at them and still maintain any kind of farm? Or, even if we wanted to strip the farm, who could we throw at them? Our best pitching prospects appear to be on the wrong time table for Oakland, and our hitting prospects aren't anywhere near good enough to overwhelm the fact that pitching was what was wanted.

Another thing we haven't brought up is that Chicago probably acquired Swisher as a CF, which obviously affects value. So, maybe the decision was made to back out because we'd have to pay a CF price, or even beat a CF price, for a corner OF.

Overall though, I agree with Tom's sentiment that I can't fault a FO I trust for not making moves when I don't know the specifics. Maybe Beane thinks FDLR is the best prospect in baseball. Maybe Shap is confident Hodges is the answer at third, by midseason this year. Whatever reason he made the call, I trust him until he gives me reason not to trust him.

The Carlos Quentin thing...groan.

by afh4 on Jan 4, 2008 4:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Swisher playing center field makes me smile.  Mind you, this is only after a cursory look at his defensive stats, so feel free to correct me. Anyway,  this seems like a poor way of getting the most out of a player's value.

BTW, two fun quotes from the ESPN article, here

Comment 1: "I got off the plane from the winter meetings, I said to David, 'Who are we kidding?'" Beane said. "We can't let hope be our strategy here. That's what we're doing. ... We can't waste another year. If this needs to be done, it needs to be done."

Comment 2: "I did not plan on paying this type of price, but I also did not plan on getting this type of player," Williams said. "Swisher was not a player on the market. Billy Beane did not want to move him. We had to make it attractive enough where they would engage in conversation."

by Thommy on Jan 4, 2008 8:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Yeah Swisher in CF seems crazy to me too but the A's actually played him there in 59 games last year. Think Beane uas trying to drive up his value or something? He'd hardly ever played there before.

Regardless, if you look at their roster, they have to play either Dye, Quentin, or Swisher in CF in order to play both Konerko and Thome. Quentin hasn't ever played a game in CF in the majors and Dye obviously isn't an option.

I think he'll be playing CF. And he'll probably run into walls and everyone will love him.

I'm scared the White Sox might accidentally be good. If they get Magglio years out of Thome, Konerko, Crede, or someone like that, plus the pitching sort of holds together, plus Quentin plays like he should, well that seems like a lot of contingency, but I'm anxious.

by afh4 on Jan 4, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Posting at 4 in the morning...groan.

by fleerdon on Jan 4, 2008 8:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
And it's not fair to mention that the major issue in this thread isn't that it doesn't improve the White Sox to the point of making anything different for them.  True, it's not your issue in this thread, but it was something that occurred to me when thinking about the trade, so I mentioned it.

My point was that, like you said, the trade might not change the competitors in the division race (still looks like Detroit, Cleveland, and Minnesota if they keep Santana), but it certainly would have helped the Indians in the race. I wasn't trying to exclude any comments on whether or not it helped Chicago.

by Ryan on Jan 4, 2008 8:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
?
Wow!
All Truth Goes Through Three Stages ... It is ridiculed It is violently opposed Finally, it is accepted as self-evident LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Jan 3, 2008 5:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
So far this offseason, the sox have traded their two best pitching prospects and their first and fourth best positional prospects for nick swisher and carlos quentin.  I can't say that I would be on board with that if I were a sox fan.  I like both quentin and swisher, but I am not crazy about putting swisher in center field on an everyday basis.  

by ClarkM on Jan 3, 2008 3:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Agreed. I think KW has screwed this up, hard. The Sox ML roster is poorly constructed and they have no help in the minors.

On top o that, I've never liked Danks and this season did nothing to change that.

by afh4 on Jan 3, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
This is a little surprising to me, but I think it makes sense.  Well, looks like the A's are going for the wholesale rebuild on the Marlins' / D-Backs model, rather than an incremental one.

I had kind of forgotten about Gio Gonzalez, but there's a lot to like about a 21 year old starter who Ks nearly 12 / 9ip in AA.  I wonder why the Sox had him repeat AA at all, based on his 2006 performance.    

formerly 'tourist

by jhon on Jan 3, 2008 3:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Mark Ellis is probably up for grabs, given the firesale. The subject of acquiring an excellent 2B and moving ACab to shortstop has come up recently.

by mcrose on Jan 3, 2008 4:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Makes sense. Move Cabrera to short, Peralta to third. Infield defense gets dramatically better.

by Ryan on Jan 3, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Do we really think Peralta can just play third?

by afh4 on Jan 3, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I was actually thinking of moving JP altogether - his contract is much like Swisher's, making him potentially quite valuable to other teams. Including ours, I know, but the prospect of an airtight middle infield next year really appeals to me.

The O's are still looking for a Tejada replacement, aren't they? How bout JP to Baltimore for Rhadames Liz plus another prospect or two? Then flip a lesser prospect package to the A's for Ellis.

by mcrose on Jan 3, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
whats a fair trade for one year (right?) of mark ellis? iffy health, and hes 30 years old.

by 7foot3 on Jan 3, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Well, it has to be a minor leaguer. It's this year plus a club option for 2008.

I dunno. Maybe somebody like Trevor Crowe? Jordan Brown?

by afh4 on Jan 3, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
And they cut payroll. As long as they get a decent prospect or two in return, it would be worth their while - picking from our depth, not our top ten.

by mcrose on Jan 3, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
lets assume beane is smart enough to get #11 or 12 then. goldstein says thats huff and goedert

by 7foot3 on Jan 3, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I was thinking even farther down, like Herrmann/Rondon. I may be wrong, but that still seems like a good deal for Beane.

by mcrose on Jan 3, 2008 5:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
They trade for Quentin AND Swisher? What fudge are we doing? Trying to figure out how to operate a phone?

by crazymoloh on Jan 3, 2008 4:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Yeah, the Quentin thing pisses me off. I'd do Mills or Hodges for Quentin.

by afh4 on Jan 3, 2008 4:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
We can't trade Beau Mills!

by mkwng on Jan 3, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
This just in Dolan installs new phone system at the Jake.  

Shapiro's phone looks like this:

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Jan 3, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I'm the biggest Beane fanboy ever, but I can't believe people think the White Sox overpaid here. Kenny Williams actually did really well, and I like this more for the ChiSox than I do for the A's.

Damn, I wish we had picked up Swish.

by Kos on Jan 3, 2008 4:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I would agree it would be that way for most teams that think they have pitching depth and will compete this year. Unfortunately for the White Sox, they are wrong on both cases. 70 win teams shouldn't be gutting their farm system.

by 7foot3 on Jan 3, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
Oops.

I don't think it matters. They're old, so they'll have to completely rebuild in 2-3 years. They can't tear down AND rebuild to a contending level before De Los Santos hits free agency, so it's not like he is a tremendous help to their chances of contending.

by Kos on Jan 3, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
if they tore it down last year and this offseason, they could have rebuilt within 6 years, and that would be assuming DLS is ready to go right now, and i would guess he's 2, maybe 3 years away

by 7foot3 on Jan 3, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree - I think by the time De Los Santos
is likely ready to perform at the ML level, the White Sox would have been about ready to emerge from their rebuilding, much like we started to in 2004-2005.  

Hello everyone, I hope you all had a great New Year's holiday!  :-)

Regarding this trade, I think it's a sizable gamble by the White Sox to win within the next few years - Thome will be pushing 40, and combined with his injury history, could really affect his production.  Dye will be pushing his late-30s, and again, with his injury history, along with a severe dropoff in production in 2007, could really make him a liability offensively as well.  

Other guys like Konerko and Pierzynski will be pushing their mid-30s, so the nucleus they won the 2005 WS with will likely not be able to push them towards a playoff appearance by themselves.  I'm not sure Swisher and Quentin combined with that former nucleus will be enough to propel them into the postseason past 2009.  Combine that with a razor-thin farm system after this trade, and the White Sox could be looking at a sizable rebuild that will probably take them 3-5 years to complete, and that's presuming that everything goes right.  It could take 6+ years to do it as their farm system is more like our farm system back in the 1980s; our farm system in the late 1990s after Hart had made trades like Rincon-Giles arguably still had a little more in it than the White Sox's system currently does.  And unlike the late 1990s Indians, these White Sox have a more challenging division to compete with, making this trade and "go for it now" approach that much riskier for them as they might lengthen the eventual rebuilding process by a few years due to their razor-thin system.

As was implied in the corresponding MinorLeagueBall thread on the Swisher trade, Williams may not be around that long, which is probably why he's going for it all now, but when you look at the current strength of the AL Central, the White Sox likely would need 8-9 things out of 10 to go right for the White Sox to even emerge from this division as a postseason participant.  The Indians and Tigers are still a few notches above the White Sox in my opinion, and even the Twins and Royals are pretty comparable to the White Sox, especially if Liriano comes back close to a comparable level as before (a sizable IF) and the Royals continue to progress as a team and get a nice return from their signing of Jose Guillen and other FAs.

Therefore, I think it's a very large gamble by the White Sox - while Swisher is a solid player, I'm not sure the White Sox are close enough to contending for the postseason with their question marks in the rotation (Danks, the 5th spot, Contreras - is he still there - not sure?) and the bullpen (which faltered greatly in 2007, and only Linebrink, who was inconsistent himself in 2007, added to it if I recall correctly,) to pay such a high price for a player who probably won't put them over the top.  

Arguably, they were closer to a postseason appearance when they acquired Podsednik and other pieces going into 2005 (the White Sox won 80+ games in both 2003 and 2004, plus, the Twins were really the only sure bet to excel in the division at that time.)

I agree with Ryan that the Indians are in a better position to make a move such as this, though I don't think I'd be willing to pay such a high price like Miller, Laffey, Mills/Hodges, and Crowe for Swisher - I'd probably look for a cheaper alternative, as Swisher is prone to hot and cold streaks; for that price, I'd look for someone who is more consistent and not prone to such hot and cold streaks.  Plus, I believe Swisher has been injury-prone at times as well, so I probably would not be willing to pay that price for him.

Just my 2 cents - no offense.

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Jan 3, 2008 9:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Additional thought to my last paragraph!
Hello again everyone,

I meant to mention also that part of the reason why I think the Swisher price is high for us is because 1/2 of that proposed equivalent package it would probably take for us to acquire him would include two ML-ready or close to ML-ready pitchers that could help us within the next year.  Combine that with the fact that Byrd likely won't return, Lee's status and performance ability is uncertain, and the fact that Sabathia is still not resigned, and I think the loss of Laffey and Miller (even with Miller's ability to stay healthy an uncertainty) would negate our ability to replace the two possible pitchers we could lose after 2008 and counteract the increased offense we'd get from Swisher, and that's presuming Swisher has more hot than cold streaks and that he remains healthy, both of which are not certainties (though Swisher has stayed pretty healthy the past two seasons, but had missed some time the two seasons prior to that.)

Just my 2 cents - no offense.

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Jan 3, 2008 9:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I agree - I think by the time De Los Santos
If the White Sox are in the tank near the trade deadline this year, they do have some players to deal if they really want to blow it up - Thome, Konerko, Dye, while not what they once were, might look mighty attractive at the trade deadline to a team looking to put themselves over the top.  
"Hey, you! Get off our lawn!" -- New Detroit Tigers Team Motto

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jan 3, 2008 9:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I agree - I think by the time De Los Santos
Wouldn't that be a big slap in the face of the Sox. Half a season after trading away their top prospects they end up being "sellers" at the trade deadline.

I wouldn't count on any trades by the midseason. Shapiro is pretty adverse to being taken advantage of in trades, and when you buy at the trading deadline, you usually are taken advantage of. (Lofton was a nice pick up an and all, but he's no Nick Swisher or Jim Thome).

by hans on Jan 4, 2008 12:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I agree - I think by the time De Los Santos
It would indeed be a slap in the face for the White Sox if they have to rebuild this year; however, it is worth noting that they used their prospects to get a couple players (Swisher, Quentin) that are young enough to be worthy of rebuilding around.  

I'm not necessarily saying that the parts they have available should they blow it up would be attractive to Shapiro - but they would be attractive to a team looking for a bat to put them over the top, and the Sox might actually be able to rebuild faster.  

It sounds like the A's weren't planning to trade Swisher but got an offer they couldn't refuse.  Shapiro's style is not to make those kinds of offers.

However, since Swisher, whom everyone seemed to think was not on the market, was traded, it menas that pretty much the entire A's roster is now up for grabs. Shapiro should be in discussions to being both Eric Chavez and Huston Street to Cleveland for a package including Marte, some pitching (Sowers, Lee, Laffey), and maybe an excess infield prospect (Hodges, Rodriguez?) - as Jay has mentioned before in another thread, the A's have the luxury of letting Marte struggle his way into the Show, while the Indians can afford to overpay for Chavez, especially with Blake to back him up and keep him rested.  Perhaps we could also get Ellis to plug in at second, so we can move AC to short and think about flipping Peralta in a package for a left fielder.

"Hey, you! Get off our lawn!" -- New Detroit Tigers Team Motto

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jan 4, 2008 9:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I agree - I think by the time De Los Santos
I'd love to see something like this happen, but I'm starting to believe that nothing is going to happen this offseason beside the CC contract extension talks.

by hans on Jan 4, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I think this trade slightly benefited the White Sox more. Swisher is still young (only 27) and is under contract for five more years, right when he is in his prime. He's already proven that he can hit for production with his 35 homer 95 RBI year in 2006, and last year was probably just a down year because of the A's miserable season. Point being he has an upside and is a good young player the White Sox now have on their team.

As for the A's, Ryan Sweeney is the only one on their 40-man roster. At 23 by seasons start he has only a .213 batting average in 80 at bats. Yeah not really a fair shot to judge a player, but he's too unestablished to believe at the moment that the A's got him as a bargain.

Same with Gio Gonzalez and Fautino De Los Santos. Yeah they're have an upside, but again are still unproven major leaguers. This trade has a similar outcome to the Tigers acquisitions of Willis and Cabrera. Yes they gave up two very very promising young prospects, but they acquired two all stars who were only 25.

by Wild Thing on Jan 3, 2008 5:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I'm not sure I agree with your assertion against Gonzalez and De Los Santos, "...But again are still uproven major leaguers". Alot can happen between the years a player plays in the minor and in the majors, but the game is fundementally the same. These two pitchers are very good, and its more likely they fail due to an injury rather not being able to "proven major leaguers". I think they've proven that they have the talent to be major leaguers already. A proven major leaguer isn't reall worth much, a "good" major leaguer is. And both of these pitchers look like they can be that. Sweeney on the other hand isn't really that valuable, and is simply "filler" in the deal.

Kenny Williams and some others (Theo Epstein's use of Marte last year for example) seem to be on this idea of aquiring prospects with the inteded purpose of trading them at their highest prospect value (prior to breaking into the majors) for major league talent. Unfortunetly for Williams, this move isn't likely to vault the team into the playoffs, but who's to say they don't make another move and really go all out.  

by hans on Jan 3, 2008 6:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
I don't think the wild card is coming out of this division next year, particulary if MIN keeps Santana. Yeah, the White Sox aren't likely to challenge the tribe and tigers for the division title, but they have certainly improved this offseason, as has KC, and MIN likely breaking even (losing Hunter, gaining Young and the return of Lirano).

Another NY,Boston, and two other teams playoffs... such is life in baseball I guess.

by hans on Jan 3, 2008 6:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Swisher Traded to White Sox
It's worth noting, though, that except for the Red Sox, the league is trying to catch up to us. When you factor in our pitching depth and age-related improvement for a number of our players, it's probably going to take more than a young outfielder here or there to make up that distance.

As for the Swisher deal itself . . . well, I'm a big Swisher fan, but I don't want to deal Laffey, and that's probably where these talks would have started. It's tough, though, inasmuch as Swisher was more or less the perfect guy for left.

by fleerdon on Jan 3, 2008 6:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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