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Offer to Sabathia on the table

This from Paul Hoynes:

http://tinyurl.com/26ohrn

Shapiro being tight-lipped as usual.  What are the odds C.C. would sign a hometown "discount" contract like Jake Peavy ?

My wag is that he was offered a 4 year deal for between $15-17 mil./year, maybe with incentives for wins, innings pitched, Cy Young, etc, and possibly with a club option for a 5th and 6th year.

I maintain my earlier stance that if I were the Indians mgt., and he maintained his insistence of exploring the free agent market, that I'd trade him before the mid point of the 2008 season.  No way the Tribe can afford to not get anything in return ala Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez.

I just hope it doesn't come down to that ...

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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I bet that CC doesn't take a Peavy-like discount.  No firm basis for that belief, just what I'm feeling.  I think CC genuinely likes playing in Cleveland and likes the organization, but I think he'd like to make between $115-$120M over six years more than, and I'd be shocked if the Tribe gave him that much, but he'd probably get it pretty easily on the market.

by CU Adam on Jan 8, 2008 11:06 AM EST   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
If I find out the Tribe offered less than 5yr/100mil I will be pretty pissed off.

by Toxicadam on Jan 8, 2008 11:16 AM EST   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Yeah, that's probably going to be the minimum. I have a feeling the sticking point is going to be the guarenteed years - the Indians will offer 5, Sabathia will want 6.

by Ryan on Jan 8, 2008 11:21 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Somehow, this all seems familiar.

by Thommy on Jan 8, 2008 12:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I think the Indians will offer 3 + 1 vesting in the hopes of settling at 4 + 1 vesting.  I think Shapiro is prepared to see Sabathia walk on the principle of not guaranteeing a fifth year, which is really a sixth year including the season yet to be played, at this salary level and to a pitcher.

Sabathia's impending free agency is historic -- he'll be 28 years old with perhaps 117 wins; Zito was also 28 but only had 102 wins.  But the Indians are a disciplined organization that responds to research and operates on core principles.  They're not going to throw those principles out the window entirely.  They don't want to guarantee any pitcher more than three years.  They'll give C.C. a four-year extension, guaranteeing five seasons total, out of respect for his increasingly historic place in the history of the franchise, as with Thome.  But that's all they'll give, and realistically, all they should give.

Whether it's $70 million or $110 million, the Indians can't compete with hypothetical free agent opportunities and won't try.  C.C. is simply going to decide whether he wants to be on this team or go for the most dollars.  I don't see how making the offer $90 million or $100 million is going to change things.

by Jay on Jan 8, 2008 12:28 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Thank you for presenting the rational argument.

The "throw as many years and dollars as possible at C.C." group simply isn't taking into consideration what C.C.'s current situation is (not on the open market and unable to compare offers on the table) and how long-term contracts to pitchers are preferably constructed.

by The DiaTriber on Jan 8, 2008 12:51 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I agree with these points Jay, but for nothing else than irrational fanboyism, I really hope we can keep CC. I'd love to see Captain Cheeseburger head to the HoF one day donning a Tribe cap.
Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Jan 8, 2008 1:23 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
"donning a Tribe cap" . . . ridiculously tilted to the side. Boy, that drives me nuts.

by ploni on Jan 8, 2008 1:56 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I love it. Not on anybody else, but it is CC.
Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Jan 8, 2008 2:02 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Oh brother! Is there a more irrelevant point you could be flustered about?

p.s: His cap tilt is a tribute to the negro leagues.

by crazymoloh on Jan 8, 2008 3:22 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I thought the tilt came from when he played little league.  C.C. would play first base and tilt his hat to make it look like he was paying attention when he was really talking to his friend down at second.  I swear I heard this during a broadcast once, but maybe C.C. was just BS'ing with the announcer.  

by Pronk33 on Jan 8, 2008 3:28 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I seem to recall that he said the hat was in commemoration of his high school teammates.

by fleerdon on Jan 8, 2008 3:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
i thought it was because if you draw a line in axis with his hat it points directly towards indonesia when he is standing on the mound, except in ballparks like arlington that didn't comply to the standard east-west orientation of home plate and the pitcher's mound.

by Brick. on Jan 8, 2008 4:32 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I heard the same thing about his HS team from another source.  I just can't remember what that source was.

On the other hand, my son's pitching coach told him to do something similar with a runner on first.  Turning the brim of the cap slightly to the left makes it harder for the baserunner to tell if you've looking at him or looking in for the sign.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Jan 8, 2008 5:50 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I think C.C is a better pitcher then Zito but why in the "Bill James is God" are you using wins as a qualification to prove it.  Seriously, you are better then that Jay.

And I agree the Ball is in C.C court because the Indians are not going to break the bank to resign him.

All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident LGT kinesiologist! Straw,Drink

by E5 on Jan 8, 2008 5:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
i think it's safe to say using wins to evaluate a career has some value.

saying carlos silva is better than johan santana becuase he got 2 wins last week and johan got zero is silly.  wins also don't tell the whole story from season to season, but it's pretty safe to say cy young was better than scott erickson because he had a lot more career wins.

i'm not going to draw a line in the sand where they become usesless, but there's no way you can discount the stat entirely.

over time, for the most part, the cream will rise to the top in regards to wins.  cc has a lot, it takes time to pile up a lot, even with good luck, and he is still pretty young.

the point is valid.

by Brick. on Jan 8, 2008 5:44 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
It's not that Wins are completely useless, it's that, like other traditional statistical measures, they are more dependent on other players' performances and situations than other measures of pitching (such as WHIP).  An average pitcher can have a ton of wins if he's on a team that provides a lot of run support, and a superior pitcher can have few wins despite being tremendously successful in keeping men off base.  Clemens's 2005 season with Houston was one of the best of his career, but he finished 13-8 (the Astros were shut out NINE times in his 32 starts).

by Denver Tribe Fan on Jan 8, 2008 6:05 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
yeah, i know.  i get what wins are, and why the stat is flawed.

my point is, over a long enough span of time, clemens will have a season with the opposite luck to cancel out that one.  and the fact that cc is the age he is with the wins he has isn't a complete fluke - the longer his career is, the more that's the case.

by Brick. on Jan 8, 2008 10:12 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Turk beat me up on this a few weeks ago, maybe I can find that thread and re-post my response.

The short version, I am not entirely "better than that" yet, apparently.

by Jay on Jan 8, 2008 6:31 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
The truth is that many agents still use this as a metric for what a pitcher is worth, so it is hardly meaningless in when discussing large FA contracts.  Of course, we all know that it isn't the best measure of a pitchers talent, but I'd guess that the correlation to talent is higher than we'd like to think.  This is especially the case when you are talking about a large enough sample size - at the minimum it means you are durable and probably throw up an above average percentage of quality starts.  That ain't nothing, folks.

by Thommy on Jan 8, 2008 7:41 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
wins are all that matters--period---

by rustyparts on Jan 9, 2008 11:34 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Yes.  But "wins" (by the team) are not the same thing as "wins" (credited to a pitcher).  Very often a pitcher is credited with "winning" a game that he had very little to do with winning, or not credited for a game that he deserved to win.

Faulty credit afflicts almost half of a pitcher's starts in one direction or another, which makes "Wins" more or less worthless.  It simply doesn't tell you how well someone pitched, and that's what you want to know.

It's kind of like grading all hitters based on their sac flys.  You'll get most of the great hitters at or near the top, but there's a huge random element determining how many they got.

by Jay on Jan 9, 2008 12:16 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Shapiro has GOT to find a way to get Jason Bay and those 8 sac flys in an Indians uniform!

by Brick. on Jan 9, 2008 12:23 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
From this thread:

Funny you should ask, I scold myself every time I use wins, in any context, and the career context is pretty much the only time I trot it out anymore.  I haven't yet found another quick shorthand for "magnitude of career greatness."  I think that career wins, like season ERA, gets you there with at least a precision of +/- 10% and probably better.  Even Blyleven was only screwed out of about 11.5% of the wins he should have had, and was really screwed out of wins for a long, long career.  So until I take the time come up with something better to toss out in a non-statistical conversation, career wins it is.

by Jay on Jan 8, 2008 10:53 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I thought there is a statistic that adjusts wins up or down based on run support.  In that scenario, I believe Blyleven had over 300 wins.  I like that one, if it's accurate, because it riffs off a common vocabulary and makes intrinsic sense.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Jan 9, 2008 5:29 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
you cant adjust wins-----lol----you stat heads are going crazy again

by rustyparts on Jan 11, 2008 10:58 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
you can't just blindly follow the edicts of the BBWA-----lol-----you smarmy traditionalists are going crazy again
Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Jan 11, 2008 11:21 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
What you're adjusting is how credit is assigned for wins.

And of course you can adjust it.  You can adjust it to make it useful as a measuring stick, which in its current form, it isn't.

Let's keep in mind that "Wins" as credited to pitchers are not actually part of the game, they're just part of the scoring.  Just as it makes no difference whether a guy reaches base on an "infield single" or an "infielder's error," it makes no difference whether the win (or loss) was credited to the starter, a reliever or the batboy.

Either the team won or the team lost.  That is the straightforward part, and that is the real game.

"Wins" for pitchers are just a scoring mark, nothing more.  They don't mean anything in terms of the game on the field, and they are BY DEFINITION not the same thing as a good pitching performance.

by Jay on Jan 11, 2008 11:29 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
whats a couple million when you make that much anyway?  its crazy.  either he wants to be in cleveland or not--perhaps it is time to trade CC for better or worse---he is just a rental this year if we dont sign him before spring training, anyway. lets just trade him into the NL and take our chances on the pitching depth we have.  its not as if we have won any world series with him and he cant be replaced---lets get something back from some team and make CC's walk out of town worth it.  just my opinion, i have been wrong before a few times.....

by rustyparts on Jan 9, 2008 11:29 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
its not as if we have won any world series with him and he cant be replaced

Come on, these hack arguments aren't going to fly here. Sabathia was probably the best player on the Indians last year - they don't make the playoffs without him.

by Ryan on Jan 9, 2008 12:42 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
So we should have left him off the playoff roster. Got it.

by fleerdon on Jan 9, 2008 2:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
you will have to make the playoffs without him 2009 ryan--lets be honest here---the guy can make huge dollars but unless he is willing to settle here for slightly less huge dollars, which he wont, we have just lost an investment with no return---trade him now or face the manny factor

by rustyparts on Jan 11, 2008 11:08 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
We've made three different investments in C.C., each with a huge return on investment.

First, when we drafted him, signed him with a bonus, and developed him (1998).  That gave us the rights to at least his first six major league seasons at low cost and risk.  We got all six years, and we got them quickly, which improves the ROI.  He made 185 starts and was at least average for all six seasons, well above average for two of them.  We also got a long, exclusive negotiating window for a future contract extension, which we fully leveraged.

Second, when we locked him up to a long-term deal at the start of 2002.  That $9.5 million locked in his cost but increased the risk.  He averaged 31 starts over the four guaranteed seasons, again, with average or better performance each year.

Third, when we extended his contract by three years at the start of 2005, for a total of $24.5 million.  He has been an elite pitcher for the first two years of that deal while being paid perhaps half the market rate for that performance.  We still have a third year of ROI to collect on that.

There can be no question, our ROI for C.C. has been absolutely enormous.  Now, you want to talk about asset management, that's a whole other question.

by Jay on Jan 11, 2008 11:47 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Why would you expect their first offer to be that high?  I don't think their final offer will be that high.

The largest contract ever given to a pitcher as a contract extension is five years, $91.5 million, and it was given by one of the richest teams, not by a small-market team.  Outside the powerhouse teams, the record is five years, $73 million.

An offer of four years at $18.5 million, total of $74 million would give Sabathia the highest salary ever on a contract extension -- for any player -- and the second-largest overall contract for a pitcher.  They might push it to $100 million with a vesting fifth year option and incentives.

But the Indians will not be setting contract records (outside of 1-to-3 guys like Grady), and it's just foolish to expect them to.

by Jay on Jan 8, 2008 12:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
No, I don't expect their first offer to be that. But, where they END UP should be in the 5yr/100 million range. It would indicate thatthey are TRULY serious about retaining CC.

by Toxicadam on Jan 8, 2008 1:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
is there an ALL YOU CAN EAT BUFFET clause? Because that might be enough to put any contract over the top.

by emd2k3 on Jan 8, 2008 1:28 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
We could sign CC for the major league minimum with the ALL YOU CAN EAT BUFFET clause, but the org is weary that a small market team couldnt afford those dollars.

by elsandito on Jan 8, 2008 3:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
So they aren't serious unless they set a new record with his contract?

Not serious unless they offer him 37% more than Oswalt got, 10% more than Zambrano got?

That is a silly and arbitrary standard.  Personally, I think for this team to commit anything like $75 million is as serious as a heart attack.

These other numbers get thrown around, those are about market awareness, but market awareness does not equate to one player's value to one team.  The Indians need to be aware of the former but chiefly concerned with the latter, and I believe that they are.

by Jay on Jan 8, 2008 1:38 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Jay is probably right, both about the range of the dollars and the likelihood that Shapiro will follow the program and not try to compete with the big market teams.  But this discussion is kind of depressing.  If CC wants 6 years or more money and the team won't give (and we know that), why didn't we pursue Haren (with the locked in salary for the next couple of years) more seriously?

by Denver Tribe Fan on Jan 8, 2008 4:32 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
What makes you think we didn't seriously pursue Haren? I'm under the impression we did, and Beane wanted an arm, a leg, a kidney, a clone, and Jacobs Field.

by Voltaire on Jan 8, 2008 4:57 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
You're probably right.  I'm just pissed we didn't get him.

by Denver Tribe Fan on Jan 8, 2008 6:06 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Fair enough. Yeah, he'd have been a nifty pickup.

by Voltaire on Jan 8, 2008 9:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I don't know how seriously we pursued Haren, but I would guess "quite."

The more interesting question, to me, is, if teams are overpaying for guys like Haren to the point where we can't get him, shouldn't we be leveraging that inefficiency by trading C.C.?

by Jay on Jan 8, 2008 6:33 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I've thought about this quite a bit.

Even though you miss on prospects in trades, I'd rather take known quantities at AA, AAA, and the major league level than gamble on two draft picks.

You have to assume some type of regression for C.C., though we all hope he's turned the point in his career where he's going to post Cy Young caliber seasons for two or three of the next five seasons.

He's just been THAT good of a pitcher since the 2005 All-Star break. In a perfect world, he continues that in an Indians uniform.

If the Indians are Sabathia are sooooo far away on contract extension talk this offseason, I would think Shapiro would have to at least look at the possibility of a trade.  I think he's prepared to ride this one out, though.

If the Indians do it, you know they'll require a major league ready starting pitcher.

Even if SF would have the cash to pay C.C. (with Zito), beyond one of Cain or Lincecum, they don't have anything to offer.

I wouldn't be opposed to a deal to Seattle, but there's just no legit starting arm the Mariners will deal.

Could always turn to Omar Minaya for the blockbuster, but that'd be a position-player heavy return.

Chad Billingsley, anybody? He's legit, and you can't even blame it on Dodger Stadium.

by rick on Jan 8, 2008 7:19 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
there is no such thing as a known at AA or AAA

by rustyparts on Jan 9, 2008 11:39 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
You're bending words and missing the point.

It's much more likely that you can tell what kind of player a guy will be at AA/AAA than you can when he's some high school or college draftee who has no professional experience.

I'd make a bet that if you choose from among the top AA/AAA talent, you can identify more to-be bona fide major league regulars than you would if you had to make that same bet based on undrafted players.

To suggest otherwise would be quite foolish, or, put you in line to spearhead some otherworldly psychic scouting program that'd have 30 teams vying for your employment.

by rick on Jan 9, 2008 3:25 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
the santana offers are the better barometer, to the extent they are to be believed.  phil hughes and another ml ready prized prospect?  even if i don't have any idea why he's prized, how could we not make that deal?

i love CC, i don't want CC to be a yankee, but honestly, it's practically driving me crazy that we're apparently not trying to make that deal.  (i say "apparently" because i don't know we're not, and also i'm assuming we can swap melky out for a real prospect).

by emil minty on Jan 8, 2008 8:30 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I've been wondering how Minny doesn't do that deal in a heartbeat. I'm assuming they will wait as long as they can to play NY and Boston off each other, but it looks like Hughes+ is on the table now, while the Sox have so far refused to offer Bucholz. Either of those guys have the potential to replace the contribution of a Santana or CC eventually, and be a better than avg ML pitcher right now.

But we're not quite in the Twins' situation - we're banking on next year to take the next and last step into the world series. CC is critical to that. In order to trade him we'd have get someone who can come close, at least in theory, to replacing his production. That's a very short list, although Hughes may be on it.

by mcrose on Jan 8, 2008 9:03 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
i do get that, i just feel like we need to do it if we can.  i can't tell if that's irrational or not.  when i was a kid it was always really important to me to own all the star wars action figures even though i was never interested in actually playing with them.  the idea of having miller, hughes and laffey all set and ready to contribute in 2008 just makes me drool.  with fisto honing his skills and sowers/lofgren in the wings, some perverted instict tells me that i would enjoy a year of miller/hughes/laffey anticipation even more than another cy young season out of cc.  it's probably a good thing i'm not in charge of running a baseball team.  

by emil minty on Jan 8, 2008 11:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
The truth is that if Carl Pohlad really wanted to pony up the money to extend Santana, he could afford it.  He's one of the richest guys in the world.  Those who think Dolan is Ebenezer Scrooge would have to come up with a new description of tightwaddery from another dimension to describe Pohlad.

That being said, I'm wondering if the Twins thought that they would be able to get the moon, stars, a leg, and a kidney for Santana and are now rethinking the whole trade thing in light of the offers they are reported to have received, especially since Pohlad has the means to extend Santana if he chooses well beyond the opening date of the new stadium, when the revenue will presumably pour in if they put a good product on the field.

The question for the Twins regarding Johan Santana should be whether signing him or trading him will put a better product on the field in 2010, with little consideration of 2008 and 2009.

"Hey, you! Get off our lawn!" -- New Detroit Tigers Team Motto

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jan 9, 2008 9:37 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I hit post before I got to the main point, which is that the question for the Tribe is how best to win it all in 2008 as opposed to 2010.  Those are two completely different trade objectives.  

I'm not so sure that trading CC fits in with the win it all in 2008 objective.

"Hey, you! Get off our lawn!" -- New Detroit Tigers Team Motto

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jan 9, 2008 9:43 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
If there's a flaw in that reasoning, it's that Hughes also helps (though to a lesser extent) in 2008, 2009, and 2011 and 2012. I know the story -- 2008 is the year and all -- but if Hughes is 70% of what people hope he can be, he helps the franchise for years.

I love C.C., love love love him, but in this market I don't know if keeping him makes sense.

That said, none of these rumored trades have actually happened yet -- the Mariners have NOT traded Adam Jones for Erik Bedard, the Yankees have NOT traded Phil Hughes for Johan Santana. Sometimes I wonder whether the longer we discuss that sort of thing publicly, the less likely it becomes.

by fleerdon on Jan 9, 2008 11:48 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I more or less agree, and I basically think we can get from the Yankees or Red Sox whatever they've already offered for Santana -- who is a year older by the way -- although that assumes C.C. would be willing to negotiate a ridiculous extension with his new team.

Melky is actually a pretty damned good prospect, but the problem is that he's been in the majors.  So we can probably just keep him in the deal and either send him down to Buffalo for a year-long tune-up (or whatever) or flip him to another team.

Better still would be to leave Melky out of it and throw in a Cano/Barfield swap, but that puts AstroCab back in Buffalo until we can find a taker for Peralta.  Hell, I've heard dumber.

by Jay on Jan 8, 2008 11:34 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Hughes, Tabata and Alan Horne. If it becomes clear CC won't sign, I could be swayed for that package.

by mcrose on Jan 9, 2008 1:45 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
no way we trade CC to an american league team---duh

by rustyparts on Jan 9, 2008 11:43 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Is there a National League team that has both the talent to acquire C.C. AND the cash to extend him AND the willingness or competitive need?

by fleerdon on Jan 9, 2008 11:51 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
The Dodgers definitely have the personnel to do so; whether they have the will to do so as far as we know remains unexplored.  I've not heard much about them being in on any pitchers this year.
"Hey, you! Get off our lawn!" -- New Detroit Tigers Team Motto

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jan 9, 2008 12:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Surely the Mets could swing it, since they're in the Santana sweepstakes.  How about CC for David Wright?

by Denver Tribe Fan on Jan 9, 2008 1:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I wonder whether we would trade C.C. for anything other than a top-flight starter or an A starting prospect. Replacing C.C. with Hughes would be a step backward a bit (at least initially), but replacing him with a position player might be a step off a cliff.

by fleerdon on Jan 9, 2008 2:06 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Drool. But as far as '08 goes, if Carmona regresses significantly, we'd have a really crappy rotation. Really crappy.

by Voltaire on Jan 9, 2008 2:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
-8 in 08? The tribe has to much talent not to finish .500 but I see a regression coming for many reasons.
  1. C.C (regular season) was significantly better then his career norms and will regress to mean.

  2. Carmona will regress and the league will catch up to him because throwing on one side of the plate like in the playoffs is going to hurt him.  He has good stuff and will not be overrun but a regression will happen for sure.  Maybe around 4.20 ERA 1.30 Whip.  I do see his K rate improving significantly however.

  3. LF Production (lack of it)

  4. 2B Production. Astro Cab isn't developed enough to post better numbers then Barfield.  He is an upgrade defensively but not enough to change our overall defense.

  5. Jhonny Peralta will most likely regress defensively to the point between his best and worst seasons. Offensively his power will increase but his plate discipline will slip.

  6. That AL Central continues to improve.

  7. Victor will regress to mean and might slip with stolen base percentage.

  8. Paul Byrd will have his typical one good year followed by one bad year.

On the positive side of things

  1. Franklin Gutiérrez will improve.

  2. The bullpen will improve with Jensen Lewis and Aaron Laffey will being significant parts of the team. Both pitchers will progress to be integral parts of the bullpen and starting staff.

  3. We are still a young team.

  4. We have trade chips if we need to acquire players.

  5. Good farm system depth with a few good prospects.

  6. Adam Miller

  7. Jake Westbrook will be better this year.

  8. Hafner will return to near career norms.
All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident LGT kinesiologist! Straw,Drink

by E5 on Jan 9, 2008 6:18 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
LF situation is the same as last year, only now one half of the platoon is healthy. This, rather than being a negative, is actually a good thing.

Cabrera will hit better than Barfield did in 07. Look at the OPS+ again and explain to me how Asdrubal is going to be worse than that.

Carmona may regress but what you describe is more than just a small slip. His peripherals don't suggest anything that extreme.

Victor last year .301/.374/.505. Victor's mean numbers .301/.373/.473. His OPS+ last year was an incredible four points above mean. In other words, Victor last year was average Victor.

We've gone back and forth on Peralta forever so I will just agree to disagree there. Byrd, on the other hand, is incredibly consistent. Last season seems about right for him again. Hard to say with the HGH and all of that.

All in all. I think that this team is prime to repeat last year's performance. Factor in a return for Hafner, continued development from the bullpen and the 5-8 starters and improved output from LF and 2B they could be even better.

I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Jan 9, 2008 9:21 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
To clarify my original post, here is what I meant:

If there is no C.C. in the rotation and we don't get a MLB ready pitcher in a trade, we have a rotation of:

Carmona
Westbrook
Lee
Laffey
Sowers/Miller

If Carmona regresses to just "good" (something like a 3.75 ERA), that's pretty shaky, since Lee, Laffey, Sowers, and Miller are all question marks. That's why, if we trade C.C., I think it's vital to get an MLB ready starter in the deal.

by Voltaire on Jan 9, 2008 9:43 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Ummm, Byrd should be in there. Ooops.

by Voltaire on Jan 9, 2008 9:45 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I could just as easily see Carmona being better than he was last year. He has yet to establish a mean to regress to. He's still on the ascending curve. Not that I'd be surprised either way, but most of his faults last year (and there weren't many) were due to maturity rather than ability.

by mcrose on Jan 10, 2008 12:52 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
And that would be totally awesome, and for all I know, far more likely to happen. But, I don't think the Indians can afford to take the chance, that's all.

by Voltaire on Jan 10, 2008 1:08 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Kudos for making a solid stab at balance, Edgar, but given your arguments on both sides of the ledger, why speculate about a -8?  (Although we might lose five wins just based on evening out some team-wide luck.)

Some general pointers, for everyone, on the topic of regression.

  1. It cuts both ways -- we always talk about down, but it works "up," too.  It just seems like it's mostly a "down" thing because the word "regression" sounds like something is getting worse, and because it usually combines with the age curve to produce results that are slightly more negative than positive.

  2. It is much more powerful than the age curve, because the age curve generally projects much smaller year-over-year differences than the random lucky ridiculousness that shoots up a guy's batting average by 60 points, then takes it all back the next year.

Now then, Edgar's 8 Up:

  1. Realistically, Gutierrez will improve but is very unlikely to break out, already being 25, and hav