Cabrera will hit better than Barfield did in 07. Look at the OPS+ again and explain to me how Asdrubal is going to be worse than that.

Carmona may regress but what you describe is more than just a small slip. His peripherals don't suggest anything that extreme.

Victor last year .301/.374/.505. Victor's mean numbers .301/.373/.473. His OPS+ last year was an incredible four points above mean. In other words, Victor last year was average Victor.

We've gone back and forth on Peralta forever so I will just agree to disagree there. Byrd, on the other hand, is incredibly consistent. Last season seems about right for him again. Hard to say with the HGH and all of that.

All in all. I think that this team is prime to repeat last year's performance. Factor in a return for Hafner, continued development from the bullpen and the 5-8 starters and improved output from LF and 2B they could be even better.

If there is no C.C. in the rotation and we don't get a MLB ready pitcher in a trade, we have a rotation of:

Carmona
Westbrook
Lee
Laffey
Sowers/Miller

If Carmona regresses to just "good" (something like a 3.75 ERA), that's pretty shaky, since Lee, Laffey, Sowers, and Miller are all question marks. That's why, if we trade C.C., I think it's vital to get an MLB ready starter in the deal.

Some general pointers, for everyone, on the topic of regression.

1. It cuts both ways -- we always talk about down, but it works "up," too.  It just seems like it's mostly a "down" thing because the word "regression" sounds like something is getting worse, and because it usually combines with the age curve to produce results that are slightly more negative than positive.

2. It is much more powerful than the age curve, because the age curve generally projects much smaller year-over-year differences than the random lucky ridiculousness that shoots up a guy's batting average by 60 points, then takes it all back the next year.

1. Realistically, Gutierrez will improve but is very unlikely to break out, already being 25, and having progressed so slowly since breaking out at age 20.

2. Maybe so and maybe not.  Relievers, who the hell knows?  K-brera?  Andy Brown?  Matt Miller?

3. Absolutely.

4. Not much that is really compelling, though.

7. Westbrook is already better -- after returning from the DL, he had a 3.54 ERA over 19 starts.  That is fantastic #2 starter stuff right there.

8. Praying on this one.

1. Actually, C.C.'s numbers in 2007 were very similar to those in 2006, other than the brief DL stint in 2006 -- his ERA went from 3.22 to 3.21, his WHIP from 1.17 to 1.14, and as others have noted, that level really dates back to July 30, 2005.  He cut down on the walks in 2007 but allowed more hits -- he actually was a bit unlucky on BIP -- and there's really not much reason to think he'll fall back at age 28.

2. I agree Carmona is in for a regression, but the improvement and adaptability he showed last season, and just age 24, I don't think a major fall is going to happen.  His K rate rose dramatically after the first two months, and this is consistent with his being age 23.  Keep in mind that PECOTA at least projected him to be #2 starter good even before last season, and after his 2007 performance, the bar must be raised a little.  I think he will still be a Top 15 pitcher, just not the guy who should have won the Cy Young.

3. We cannot fall back in left field, because we were already too terrible.  It is pretty much impossible.  Even if we run Dellucci and Michaels out there again, the likelihood that our production out of that position will improve is extremely high.  That is regression.

4. You don't think AstroCab can manage a 594 OPS?  Really?  Well, I think he can.  And I think he's at least two wins better on defense -- seriously, two wins, I mean that.

5. I see no reason to predict a defensive decline for Jhonny.  He wasn't that great, and I think he can sustain that level for another year or two.  It is highly unusual for a player's discipline to decline as he gets older -- it actually peaks at age 34 if you can believe that -- so you're going to have to do some fancy explaining to get anyone onto that bus.

6. The Central is improving, other than the Twins, but the other teams in the Central also have to deal with that.  The White Sox will not be a factor, but it will still be tougher to take games from them with Swisher on board -- but Detroit will also have that problem.  No doubt Detroit is the real threat, but even as they make big improvements, they continue to get older and more fragile.

7. Victor is in for a small regression, but not necessarily with his throwing.  Victor played much of 2006 with a broken toe, which wasn't made public until after the season, yet he still managed to post solid throwing numbers in the second half of that season, something it's easy to forget.  His performance was twice as bad as you remember, but it really was only for three or four months, not the whole season.

8. Byrd too was not really that different 06 to 07 when you add it all up.  I think we need to view him as a #5 guy with a nice upside.