Offer to Sabathia on the table
This from Paul Hoynes:
Shapiro being tight-lipped as usual. What are the odds C.C. would sign a hometown "discount" contract like Jake Peavy ?
My wag is that he was offered a 4 year deal for between $15-17 mil./year, maybe with incentives for wins, innings pitched, Cy Young, etc, and possibly with a club option for a 5th and 6th year.
I maintain my earlier stance that if I were the Indians mgt., and he maintained his insistence of exploring the free agent market, that I'd trade him before the mid point of the 2008 season. No way the Tribe can afford to not get anything in return ala Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez.
I just hope it doesn't come down to that ...
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by CU Adam on Jan 8, 2008 11:06 AM EST 0 recs
Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Toxicadam on Jan 8, 2008 11:16 AM EST 0 recs
Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Ryan on
Jan 8, 2008 11:21 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Thommy on
Jan 8, 2008 12:00 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Sabathia's impending free agency is historic -- he'll be 28 years old with perhaps 117 wins; Zito was also 28 but only had 102 wins. But the Indians are a disciplined organization that responds to research and operates on core principles. They're not going to throw those principles out the window entirely. They don't want to guarantee any pitcher more than three years. They'll give C.C. a four-year extension, guaranteeing five seasons total, out of respect for his increasingly historic place in the history of the franchise, as with Thome. But that's all they'll give, and realistically, all they should give.
Whether it's $70 million or $110 million, the Indians can't compete with hypothetical free agent opportunities and won't try. C.C. is simply going to decide whether he wants to be on this team or go for the most dollars. I don't see how making the offer $90 million or $100 million is going to change things.
by Jay on
Jan 8, 2008 12:28 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
The "throw as many years and dollars as possible at C.C." group simply isn't taking into consideration what C.C.'s current situation is (not on the open market and unable to compare offers on the table) and how long-term contracts to pitchers are preferably constructed.
by The DiaTriber on
Jan 8, 2008 12:51 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Turkmenbashi on
Jan 8, 2008 1:23 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by ploni on
Jan 8, 2008 1:56 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Turkmenbashi on
Jan 8, 2008 2:02 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
p.s: His cap tilt is a tribute to the negro leagues.
by crazymoloh on
Jan 8, 2008 3:22 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Pronk33 on
Jan 8, 2008 3:28 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by fleerdon on
Jan 8, 2008 3:29 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Brick. on
Jan 8, 2008 4:32 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
On the other hand, my son's pitching coach told him to do something similar with a runner on first. Turning the brim of the cap slightly to the left makes it harder for the baserunner to tell if you've looking at him or looking in for the sign.
by Harry Doyle on
Jan 8, 2008 5:50 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
And I agree the Ball is in C.C court because the Indians are not going to break the bank to resign him.
by E5 on
Jan 8, 2008 5:35 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
saying carlos silva is better than johan santana becuase he got 2 wins last week and johan got zero is silly. wins also don't tell the whole story from season to season, but it's pretty safe to say cy young was better than scott erickson because he had a lot more career wins.
i'm not going to draw a line in the sand where they become usesless, but there's no way you can discount the stat entirely.
over time, for the most part, the cream will rise to the top in regards to wins. cc has a lot, it takes time to pile up a lot, even with good luck, and he is still pretty young.
the point is valid.
by Brick. on
Jan 8, 2008 5:44 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Denver Tribe Fan on
Jan 8, 2008 6:05 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
my point is, over a long enough span of time, clemens will have a season with the opposite luck to cancel out that one. and the fact that cc is the age he is with the wins he has isn't a complete fluke - the longer his career is, the more that's the case.
by Brick. on
Jan 8, 2008 10:12 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
The short version, I am not entirely "better than that" yet, apparently.
by Jay on
Jan 8, 2008 6:31 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Thommy on
Jan 8, 2008 7:41 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by rustyparts on
Jan 9, 2008 11:34 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Faulty credit afflicts almost half of a pitcher's starts in one direction or another, which makes "Wins" more or less worthless. It simply doesn't tell you how well someone pitched, and that's what you want to know.
It's kind of like grading all hitters based on their sac flys. You'll get most of the great hitters at or near the top, but there's a huge random element determining how many they got.
by Jay on
Jan 9, 2008 12:16 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Brick. on
Jan 9, 2008 12:23 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Funny you should ask, I scold myself every time I use wins, in any context, and the career context is pretty much the only time I trot it out anymore. I haven't yet found another quick shorthand for "magnitude of career greatness." I think that career wins, like season ERA, gets you there with at least a precision of +/- 10% and probably better. Even Blyleven was only screwed out of about 11.5% of the wins he should have had, and was really screwed out of wins for a long, long career. So until I take the time come up with something better to toss out in a non-statistical conversation, career wins it is.
by Jay on
Jan 8, 2008 10:53 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Bogalusa Bomber on
Jan 9, 2008 5:29 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by rustyparts on
Jan 11, 2008 10:58 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Turkmenbashi on
Jan 11, 2008 11:21 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
And of course you can adjust it. You can adjust it to make it useful as a measuring stick, which in its current form, it isn't.
Let's keep in mind that "Wins" as credited to pitchers are not actually part of the game, they're just part of the scoring. Just as it makes no difference whether a guy reaches base on an "infield single" or an "infielder's error," it makes no difference whether the win (or loss) was credited to the starter, a reliever or the batboy.
Either the team won or the team lost. That is the straightforward part, and that is the real game.
"Wins" for pitchers are just a scoring mark, nothing more. They don't mean anything in terms of the game on the field, and they are BY DEFINITION not the same thing as a good pitching performance.
by Jay on
Jan 11, 2008 11:29 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by rustyparts on
Jan 9, 2008 11:29 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Come on, these hack arguments aren't going to fly here. Sabathia was probably the best player on the Indians last year - they don't make the playoffs without him.
by Ryan on
Jan 9, 2008 12:42 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by fleerdon on
Jan 9, 2008 2:00 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by rustyparts on
Jan 11, 2008 11:08 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
First, when we drafted him, signed him with a bonus, and developed him (1998). That gave us the rights to at least his first six major league seasons at low cost and risk. We got all six years, and we got them quickly, which improves the ROI. He made 185 starts and was at least average for all six seasons, well above average for two of them. We also got a long, exclusive negotiating window for a future contract extension, which we fully leveraged.
Second, when we locked him up to a long-term deal at the start of 2002. That $9.5 million locked in his cost but increased the risk. He averaged 31 starts over the four guaranteed seasons, again, with average or better performance each year.
Third, when we extended his contract by three years at the start of 2005, for a total of $24.5 million. He has been an elite pitcher for the first two years of that deal while being paid perhaps half the market rate for that performance. We still have a third year of ROI to collect on that.
There can be no question, our ROI for C.C. has been absolutely enormous. Now, you want to talk about asset management, that's a whole other question.
by Jay on
Jan 11, 2008 11:47 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
The largest contract ever given to a pitcher as a contract extension is five years, $91.5 million, and it was given by one of the richest teams, not by a small-market team. Outside the powerhouse teams, the record is five years, $73 million.
An offer of four years at $18.5 million, total of $74 million would give Sabathia the highest salary ever on a contract extension -- for any player -- and the second-largest overall contract for a pitcher. They might push it to $100 million with a vesting fifth year option and incentives.
But the Indians will not be setting contract records (outside of 1-to-3 guys like Grady), and it's just foolish to expect them to.
by Jay on
Jan 8, 2008 12:20 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Toxicadam on
Jan 8, 2008 1:14 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by emd2k3 on
Jan 8, 2008 1:28 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by elsandito on
Jan 8, 2008 3:37 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Not serious unless they offer him 37% more than Oswalt got, 10% more than Zambrano got?
That is a silly and arbitrary standard. Personally, I think for this team to commit anything like $75 million is as serious as a heart attack.
These other numbers get thrown around, those are about market awareness, but market awareness does not equate to one player's value to one team. The Indians need to be aware of the former but chiefly concerned with the latter, and I believe that they are.
by Jay on
Jan 8, 2008 1:38 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Denver Tribe Fan on
Jan 8, 2008 4:32 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Voltaire on
Jan 8, 2008 4:57 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Denver Tribe Fan on
Jan 8, 2008 6:06 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by Voltaire on
Jan 8, 2008 9:00 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
The more interesting question, to me, is, if teams are overpaying for guys like Haren to the point where we can't get him, shouldn't we be leveraging that inefficiency by trading C.C.?
by Jay on
Jan 8, 2008 6:33 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Even though you miss on prospects in trades, I'd rather take known quantities at AA, AAA, and the major league level than gamble on two draft picks.
You have to assume some type of regression for C.C., though we all hope he's turned the point in his career where he's going to post Cy Young caliber seasons for two or three of the next five seasons.
He's just been THAT good of a pitcher since the 2005 All-Star break. In a perfect world, he continues that in an Indians uniform.
If the Indians are Sabathia are sooooo far away on contract extension talk this offseason, I would think Shapiro would have to at least look at the possibility of a trade. I think he's prepared to ride this one out, though.
If the Indians do it, you know they'll require a major league ready starting pitcher.
Even if SF would have the cash to pay C.C. (with Zito), beyond one of Cain or Lincecum, they don't have anything to offer.
I wouldn't be opposed to a deal to Seattle, but there's just no legit starting arm the Mariners will deal.
Could always turn to Omar Minaya for the blockbuster, but that'd be a position-player heavy return.
Chad Billingsley, anybody? He's legit, and you can't even blame it on Dodger Stadium.
by rick on
Jan 8, 2008 7:19 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
by rustyparts on
Jan 9, 2008 11:39 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
It's much more likely that you can tell what kind of player a guy will be at AA/AAA than you can when he's some high school or college draftee who has no professional experience.
I'd make a bet that if you choose from among the top AA/AAA talent, you can identify more to-be bona fide major league regulars than you would if you had to make that same bet based on undrafted players.
To suggest otherwise would be quite foolish, or, put you in line to spearhead some otherworldly psychic scouting program that'd have 30 teams vying for your employment.
by rick on
Jan 9, 2008 3:25 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
i love CC, i don't want CC to be a yankee, but honestly, it's practically driving me crazy that we're apparently not trying to make that deal. (i say "apparently" because i don't know we're not, and also i'm assuming we can swap melky out for a real prospect).
by emil minty on
Jan 8, 2008 8:30 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
But we're not quite in the Twins' situation - we're banking on next year to take the next and last step into the world series. CC is critical to that. In order to trade him we'd have get someone who can come close, at least in theory, to replacing his production. That's a very short list, although Hughes may be on it.
by mcrose on
Jan 8, 2008 9:03 PM EST
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by emil minty on
Jan 8, 2008 11:14 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
That being said, I'm wondering if the Twins thought that they would be able to get the moon, stars, a leg, and a kidney for Santana and are now rethinking the whole trade thing in light of the offers they are reported to have received, especially since Pohlad has the means to extend Santana if he chooses well beyond the opening date of the new stadium, when the revenue will presumably pour in if they put a good product on the field.
The question for the Twins regarding Johan Santana should be whether signing him or trading him will put a better product on the field in 2010, with little consideration of 2008 and 2009.
by woodsmeister on
Jan 9, 2008 9:37 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I'm not so sure that trading CC fits in with the win it all in 2008 objective.
by woodsmeister on
Jan 9, 2008 9:43 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
I love C.C., love love love him, but in this market I don't know if keeping him makes sense.
That said, none of these rumored trades have actually happened yet -- the Mariners have NOT traded Adam Jones for Erik Bedard, the Yankees have NOT traded Phil Hughes for Johan Santana. Sometimes I wonder whether the longer we discuss that sort of thing publicly, the less likely it becomes.
by fleerdon on
Jan 9, 2008 11:48 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Melky is actually a pretty damned good prospect, but the problem is that he's been in the majors. So we can probably just keep him in the deal and either send him down to Buffalo for a year-long tune-up (or whatever) or flip him to another team.
Better still would be to leave Melky out of it and throw in a Cano/Barfield swap, but that puts AstroCab back in Buffalo until we can find a taker for Peralta. Hell, I've heard dumber.
by Jay on
Jan 8, 2008 11:34 PM EST
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by mcrose on
Jan 9, 2008 1:45 AM EST
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by rustyparts on
Jan 9, 2008 11:43 AM EST
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by fleerdon on
Jan 9, 2008 11:51 AM EST
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by woodsmeister on
Jan 9, 2008 12:01 PM EST
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by Denver Tribe Fan on
Jan 9, 2008 1:29 PM EST
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by fleerdon on
Jan 9, 2008 2:06 PM EST
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by Voltaire on
Jan 9, 2008 2:07 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
- C.C (regular season) was significantly better then his career norms and will regress to mean.
- Carmona will regress and the league will catch up to him because throwing on one side of the plate like in the playoffs is going to hurt him. He has good stuff and will not be overrun but a regression will happen for sure. Maybe around 4.20 ERA 1.30 Whip. I do see his K rate improving significantly however.
- LF Production (lack of it)
- 2B Production. Astro Cab isn't developed enough to post better numbers then Barfield. He is an upgrade defensively but not enough to change our overall defense.
- Jhonny Peralta will most likely regress defensively to the point between his best and worst seasons. Offensively his power will increase but his plate discipline will slip.
- That AL Central continues to improve.
- Victor will regress to mean and might slip with stolen base percentage.
- Paul Byrd will have his typical one good year followed by one bad year.
- Franklin Gutiérrez will improve.
- The bullpen will improve with Jensen Lewis and Aaron Laffey will being significant parts of the team. Both pitchers will progress to be integral parts of the bullpen and starting staff.
- We are still a young team.
- We have trade chips if we need to acquire players.
- Good farm system depth with a few good prospects.
- Adam Miller
- Jake Westbrook will be better this year.
- Hafner will return to near career norms.
by E5 on
Jan 9, 2008 6:18 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Cabrera will hit better than Barfield did in 07. Look at the OPS+ again and explain to me how Asdrubal is going to be worse than that.
Carmona may regress but what you describe is more than just a small slip. His peripherals don't suggest anything that extreme.
Victor last year .301/.374/.505. Victor's mean numbers .301/.373/.473. His OPS+ last year was an incredible four points above mean. In other words, Victor last year was average Victor.
We've gone back and forth on Peralta forever so I will just agree to disagree there. Byrd, on the other hand, is incredibly consistent. Last season seems about right for him again. Hard to say with the HGH and all of that.
All in all. I think that this team is prime to repeat last year's performance. Factor in a return for Hafner, continued development from the bullpen and the 5-8 starters and improved output from LF and 2B they could be even better.
by fwembt on
Jan 9, 2008 9:21 PM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
If there is no C.C. in the rotation and we don't get a MLB ready pitcher in a trade, we have a rotation of:
Carmona
Westbrook
Lee
Laffey
Sowers/Miller
If Carmona regresses to just "good" (something like a 3.75 ERA), that's pretty shaky, since Lee, Laffey, Sowers, and Miller are all question marks. That's why, if we trade C.C., I think it's vital to get an MLB ready starter in the deal.
by Voltaire on
Jan 9, 2008 9:43 PM EST
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by Voltaire on
Jan 9, 2008 9:45 PM EST
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by mcrose on
Jan 10, 2008 12:52 AM EST
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by Voltaire on
Jan 10, 2008 1:08 AM EST
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Re: Offer to Sabathia on the table
Some general pointers, for everyone, on the topic of regression.
- It cuts both ways -- we always talk about down, but it works "up," too. It just seems like it's mostly a "down" thing because the word "regression" sounds like something is getting worse, and because it usually combines with the age curve to produce results that are slightly more negative than positive.
- It is much more powerful than the age curve, because the age curve generally projects much smaller year-over-year differences than the random lucky ridiculousness that shoots up a guy's batting average by 60 points, then takes it all back the next year.
- Realistically, Gutierrez will improve but is very unlikely to break out, already being 25, and hav


