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Around SBN: Has Kentucky Improved Since the Non-Conference Season?

Dave, Buffalo NY: Your earlier comment on Mills, is he Ryan Garko in the majors?

Keith Law: (1:30 PM ET ) This is my fear.

Yes? No?

about 1 year ago Dscn0271_tiny bewwolv 79 comments 0 recs  | 

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I have no idea what that even means. Saying a guy in high-A has a significant likelihood of becoming an an as of yet unquantified MLB spare part hardly seems like something we should fear.

The fact that it’s a dumb analysis is also a problem. But more than that, are we “afraid” of a first rounder reaching the majors and probably being good for a couple of average to above-average seasons? It seems like a decent outcome. Not the one I want but a decent one.

by afh4 on Oct 16, 2008 9:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Decent outcome, sure, but it would be disappointing and below all our expectations. And calling this a dumb analysis is a little harsh — I mean it’s just gut reaction on a chat, not meant to be analytical.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Oct 17, 2008 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ugh, disregard that, sorry. I didn’t see his earlier comment about Mills before I posted.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Oct 17, 2008 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You sold me. Andrew, I agreed with you initially, not such a bad outcome, but this guy was the 13th overall pick in the draft, and it’s not like he’s a college senior, an “all-safe” pick. He was 20, supposed to have real upside.

by Jay on Oct 17, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but if we play the numbers on the 13th pick in the draft doesn’t “MLB player” come up as a pretty decent outcome?

And, Phil, I just meant it was a dumb for the reaons Jay just alluded to-he’s not Ryan Garko, not even close. If Mills fails, it’s unlikely to be in the same way Garko did/is/might be. It’s pretty useless to draw a comparison between Mills and guy who entered the minors at a year older than Mills is right now. Adding to that, they’re not very similar hitters anyway, even if they were the same age.

What Law could’ve said that I might’ve agreed with is that Mills might be Russ Branyan. That’s a better numbers comparison. But, Law has made some kind of judgment on Mills’ power, though it doesn’t jibe with any other reports I’ve read or with his numbers.

by afh4 on Oct 17, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Assuming his power doesn’t break through this year (who knows if it will or won’t, but I agree that this is a crucial year), his worst-case is Travis Lee. Best case: Brad Fulmer, Paul Sorrento. Middle: Lee Stevens. Garko isn’t even on the map; he’s a very different hitter. I’m also holding out hope that his glove improves. A fringe 3B ought to be decent at 1B, unless he actually isn’t much of 3B at all.

Branyan isn’t a good comp, because he has some versatility and he has such prodigious power. ’Gotta go with poor fielding lefties with the medium-build.

by jhon on Oct 17, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And by medium build I mean that for a 1B. Large being Ryan Howard, small being Will Clark.

by jhon on Oct 17, 2008 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That’s probably a better list but I think there’s a decent chance that Mills becomes Branyan-esque. He’d have to hit 40 bombs this year which isn’t super likely but it’s also not insane-he hit 36 HRs in less than 450 ABs in college, whatever that means.

At the least I’d say Branyan is a hell of a lot closer than Garko. You’re right, though, and it’s what I was getting at-Garko and Mills are not the same. At all.

by afh4 on Oct 18, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh and I’ll add that MILB power numbers might be sort of suppressed now as opposed to in Branyan’s hey day. But maybe not.

by afh4 on Oct 18, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with this. He has the right size. I don’t know what Law’s smoking. I don’t know who can tell if he’ll hit 10 or 40 HRs in a full season in the majors, but it seems clear to me that, barring injury, one day we’ll find out.

by jhon on Oct 18, 2008 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I gotcha. Can’t disagree with that.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Oct 17, 2008 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Depends. I think if you run the numbers without injuries or pitchers, it’s not a great outcome.

by Jay on Oct 18, 2008 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’d pay somebody 5 dollars a month to have a site that could run those numbers.

by afh4 on Oct 18, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dammit, Beau. You popped up in batting practice, you are doomed for failure

by Roger Dorn on Oct 16, 2008 10:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh come on. This is not what Klaw said or thinks.

by Peter Bendix on Oct 17, 2008 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think my issue is that he really didn’t base this off actual performance, but what he saw in one AFL game. That is what some scouts do, but Law also prides himself on using both scouting and statistics. I just don’t really see a Garko comparison at all here, but I also don’t dedicate my life to this stuff, so I would value his opinion over mine

by Roger Dorn on Oct 17, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I mean, for one thing they don’t bat from the same side of the plate. It’s a brainlessly basic filter, but essential. If you ‘re out to dis’ his prospects substitute Lyle Overbay.

by jhon on Oct 17, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think (without putting too many words in his mouth) that he was expressing his opinion based on what he saw in BP and the game. But he’d be the first to tell you that this was one BP and one game, and that you have to factor stats into things too.

That being said, I think Jay summed it up well above: if most minor leaguers became Ryan Garko, that’d be an awfully good result. But if Beau Mills became Ryan Garko, it’d be disappointing.

by Peter Bendix on Oct 17, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can’t read the link, but isn’t Law exercising what is known as wit? I don’t remember the rhetorical term, but it plays as follows: “So, you wife has finally returned from her trip to Buenos Aires.” “Yes, it’s a real drag.” Paraprosdokian, maybe?

Isn’t Law wowing us with his wit?

by odradek on Oct 17, 2008 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was actually quoting Lebowski.

by Jay on Oct 18, 2008 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, I’m wrong about this. The real quote is: “This is our concern, dude.”

by Jay on Oct 19, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah this is getting ridiculous

by hans on Oct 17, 2008 12:12 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the bigger question is, what happened to Garko? He seemed like he was doing great until he had to repeat the season in AAA because he was blocked in Cleveland.

Avg/obp/slg/ops

AAA 2005: .303/384/498/882.

AAA 2006: 247/.352/.420/.772

Is there any chance he could recover?

by world dictator on Oct 17, 2008 2:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

A first baseman who can’t quite scrape .500 slugging isn’t “doing great.”

Garko’s star as a prospect was based on being a prodigious contact hitter and a catcher. If a catcher has a season like this, you just shake it off and see if he can bounce back, but he’s not a catcher anymore, and we should stop pretending he should have been considered all that much juicier than Jordan Brown.

by Jay on Oct 17, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This just isn’t true though. When Garko’s stardom burst in ‘04, he was already being moved slowly to 1b. Absolutely no one thought he would stick at catcher; it wasn’t even considered.

by Joe. on Oct 17, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think that’s exactly right. You say “it wasn’t even considered,” but he played almost half his games in 2005 at catcher. They started moving him part-time to first base late in 2004, when it became clear that he wasn’t slowed down by the promotion to Akron. They thought he could help the team very soon in a platoon with Broussard, but you have to remember that at the time, we still had Josh Bard, so Garko was not very valuable to us as a backup.

I think, in retrospect, that they overreacted to these factors. Sickels wrote at the end of 2004, “Garko is ideally suited to be a platoon player/pinch-hitter/supersub, spelling Martinez at catcher, giving the other guys days off, similar to the role Matthew LeCroy plays in Minnesota.” But they didn’t go that route, in part because Garko proceeded to hit well in Buffalo though not extremely well, and he was already 24. The Indians signed Eduardo Perez for 2006 and traded Bard for Shoppach, both moves in some sense a vote of no-confidence for Garko.

Bottom line, Garko at one point seemed to have an interesting set of complementary tools, and they tried to make him into a core player, and he doesn’t really seem to have the tools for that kind of role. It’s probably too late to try to get him back in a catcher’s getup, but that’s a shame.

by Jay on Oct 17, 2008 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hello Jay,

I generally agree with what you said, but if I recall correctly, I’m not sure there were that many who thought that Garko could play serviceable or solid defense at catcher at the ML level. To me, he seemed more like a 3rd-string/emergency catcher, much like LeCroy (which is why I think Sickels made that comment).

Personally, I wouldn’t have minded grooming him in that role, which would have increased his value. Granted, you wouldn’t have played Garko that often behind the plate – perhaps once a week or a few times a month, but it may have been enough to spell Martinez and Bard (who was still here in 2005), while getting Garko’s bat into the lineup.

Additionally, if I recall correctly, another reason why the Indians may not have pursed the Garko behind the plate idea could have been due to the fact that I think the Indians’ pitching staff had major trouble trying to keep the opposing teams from running at will (partly due to the pitching staff not holding runners well, partly due to Martinez’s supposedly “weak” arm, etc.) I’m guessing that the fact that Garko was not a great defensive catcher, and I believe, reportedly had trouble throwing with a consistent release point, they probably figured they needed to have a stronger defensive catcher back behind the plate whenever Martinez was not catching (which explained Bard, and later, Shoppach), which is probably why they never really strongly considered playing Garko behind the plate as a 3rd catcher or pinch-running for Martinez or Bard too often because they didn’t really think Garko could handle the rigors of being a ML catcher well enough to justify playing him there at any point over the course of season.

The pitching staff had such problems with holding runners and keeping them from stealing bases at will; combine that with the fact that Garko was not a consistent-enough thrower from behind the plate and the fact that Broussard was struggling at 1B offensively that the Indians probably felt that Garko could make a more positive impact just playing regularly/semi-regularly at 1B (not at DH either, since Hafner was still going well at that time). By the time the situtation changed (i.e. Garko finally was up to the Majors to stay, teams weren’t running on the Indians at will because of improved recognition by the pitching staff in holding runners and the fact that Martinez had improved his throwing mechanics), the idea never was seriously revisited and Garko remained a 1B/DH type.

One other point about the Perez signing reflecting a “no-vote of confidence” in Garko: The Indians have always seemed sort of cautious when asking an inexperienced player to take on a larger role of the team – think of Sizemore not starting the year with the Indians in 2005 until Juan-Gone went down with an injury and having Alex Cora hold the SS position in 2005 until later in the season before Peralta was given the SS position full-time.

Being that 2006 was a year we were supposed to contend, it’s not surprising that the Indians wanted an experienced veteran to platoon with Broussard, rather than the inexperienced Ryan Garko. Granted, Garko’s 2006 season dimmed his star quite a bit because of how poorly he did at AAA, but I don’t know if signing Perez to start the 2006 season was because they had “no confidence” in Garko – based on the Indians’ recent ways of constructing their teams, they almost always prefer to have an experienced veteran be at the ML level, with an established prospect (which Garko was after the 2005 season) waiting in the wings at AAA. We’ve often talked about it as having depth, something that some LGTers have complained about in the past because we often will not hand the reins to the young, promising player, especially in a year we are expected to contend, much like the Sizemore and Peralta examples from 2005 I mentioned above.

I think that is the major reason why Garko was not platooning with Broussard to begin the 2006 season – it wasn’t so much that they had no confidence in Garko, but the fact that they don’t usually like to put that type of pressure on an inexperienced player to begin their careers and would rather have those inexperienced, but promising, players to be depth at AAA in the event that the experienced veterans they do sign don’t work out as planned (as was the case with both Juan-Gone and Cora; Perez did turn out very well – combine that with Garko’s falling-off at AAA in 2006, and that helped to greatly diminish his star after his solid 2005 season).

Just my 2 cents.

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Oct 17, 2008 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Garko was not a great defensive catcher.

I don’t remember ever seeing him play behind the plate, but based on his first-base skills, this qualifies as an extremely generous assessment.

by odradek on Oct 17, 2008 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hello odradek,

I think that statement is equivalent to

“Not a good defensive catcher.”
“A poor defensive catcher.”

Basically, he could play the position if need be (i.e. 3rd/emergency type) – he could probably play it every so often and not hurt you, but the Indians didn’t go this route, and it would seem very unlikely they’d consider that option now.

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Oct 18, 2008 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Joe, I don’t think it was a matter of choice. The Indians “didn’t go this route” not because they had an option but because Garko couldn’t cut it. The team decided he couldn’t play the position if needed. I’m sure they would have loved to have him able to play, but he couldn’t hack it.

There would be no reason for them to consider that now. It’s not even an option.

by odradek on Oct 18, 2008 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really don’t think that was the case, but Garko continuing to be a catcher became pointless once we acquired Shoppach.

by Jay on Oct 18, 2008 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tell me you didn’t just bring back the “Alex Cora blocked Peralta” nonsense.

Jhonny Peralta started the majority of games at shortstop in April 2005.

Juan-Gone was a cheap “flier” signing with basically no cost.

And nobody could have predicted (or did predict) that either guy would have an All-Star caliber season as a rookie.

This whole subject is overplayed, and it’s surprising to see it rehashed by a guy who’s been around here for a couple of years already.

by Jay on Oct 18, 2008 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Have the Indians had a Matt Lecroy type player since Wedge has been manager? I know Blake was to have filled this role, but Wedge seems either to let a guy get splinters or run him out on the field every day.

by odradek on Oct 17, 2008 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hello again odradek,

I agree – Wedge could improve in the area of playing guys enough and not playing them too much, though in fairness to Wedge, he did rest Sizemore more in 2008 and utilized Shoppach more, though that was mostly because Victor became injured not long into the 2008 season and was out for a good chunk of the season; whether Wedge would have utilized Shoppach as much if Victor had remained healthy, I’m not sure, but I think if Shoppach is on the 2009 roster, he has to be in the lineup pretty regularly and Victor is at 1B or DH when Shoppach is catching.

All the more reason why that Garko being a 3rd/emergency catcher would have been useful now, being that if one of them was injured, you’d have a 3rd option to go to. It makes me wonder whether they’d look to include a player who could catch on a 3rd string/emergency basis on the 2009 roster? I think Blake was that guy (not Garko) in the past few years – would they look to find someone who could catch in a pinch if the need arose (due to injury to Victor or Shoppach)?

Just my 2 cents.

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Oct 18, 2008 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wedge says he used Grady too much and thought his late-season fade may have been from fatigue.

I’d say no way in hell does Wedge use Shoppach that much if Victor wasn’t hurt.

I think the Indians have to carry a third catcher of sorts in 2009, no?

by odradek on Oct 18, 2008 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not really. There are only a handful of guys to whom Wedge has given the splinter treatment for more than a couple of weeks. I can’t really think of any other than Bard, Marte and Rouse.

by Jay on Oct 18, 2008 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gonzalez? Aubrey? Velandia? Barfield? That’s just this season.

by odradek on Oct 18, 2008 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who are those guys?

Barfield was barely around prior to September expanded rosters.

The other three were short-timer fill-ins, not anyone who was considered for the 25-man in the Spring.

by Jay on Oct 18, 2008 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

When Barfield came back he mostly sat. Who knows, maybe Velandia or Gonzalez had value. They never played because Wedge played Carroll most every day. Maybe they suck, but Wedge must base his decisions on batting-practice behavior.

by odradek on Oct 18, 2008 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought this was interesting:

Jack (Lexington, Virginia): I know you’ve gotten a lot of Tribe questions today, but one more—where do Weglarz and Huff rank overall? (not just in Cleveland’s system)—are both in the top 100? top 50? What do you expect from them going forward? Thanks-

SportsNation Keith Law: You know, you’re right, Weglarz is at least top 3 in that system. I like him over LaPorta long-term.

by world dictator on Oct 17, 2008 2:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

hey! that’s me!

he kind of answered my question

by Cap'n Snegiryov on Oct 17, 2008 7:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think he was basically saying that both are Top 3 and therefore likely Top 100.

by Jay on Oct 17, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that would make sense

by Cap'n Snegiryov on Oct 17, 2008 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I instinctively like Beau, but I can’t argue differently, having never seen him play. I’m looking forward to this Spring Training.

Why does it seem so hard to find a good 1B / DH these days?

by jhon on Oct 17, 2008 11:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Gotta be the smaller ballparks…

by millionairesrow on Oct 17, 2008 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

uh…bigger ballparks

by millionairesrow on Oct 17, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you ever find yourself laughing out loud until you realize that what you are laughing at is actually sad? laugh followed by “awwwww”. yeah, I just did that. rec anyway

proverbial "moron in a hurry"

by 94neverout on Oct 17, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think we have lost perspective on what a real power-hitting prospect looks like. Laporta is the real deal and hopefully will show it this year. Santana is interesting. Mills is a guy who was talked about having that power, but while he hasn’t been “bad” so far, hasn’t showed super power. I feel he’s a guy who seems like he’s on the brink of developing real power numbers, but this coming year is probably critical for evaluating that. Weglarz has never shown great power. The fact that he hits batting practice and the occasional in-game homerun a long way is not a testament of his ability to consistently hit the ball a long way, but rather his ability to simply hit a ball a long way. Given his great plate discipline, there’s reason to be optimistic he’ll develop the ability to more regularly hit long bombs. I think that is the reality, though.

by APV on Oct 17, 2008 11:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Isn’t Weglarz a little young to take that slant? I mean he is young and big plus his stats. Power develops with time. the fact that he has such a good starting point with the eyeball test is something to optimistically translate into “pojected power hitter.” Right?

proverbial "moron in a hurry"

by 94neverout on Oct 17, 2008 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

of course…Wegz is still a very good prospect. But he’s a prospect with a potential for power, not actual power. Given his age, he’s got some time to figure it out. It would be nice if he started blasting HRs as soon as he gets to Akron next season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that doesn’t happen. I’d be more concerned were he to repeat AA and still not show huge power numbers.

by APV on Oct 17, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But isn’t the point, that “given his age” he should physically develop into a power hitter, considering his starting point physical development, plate discipline, and ability to hit the ball far already (i.e. at this young age). Not that he’s going to “figure it out”. Physical development isn’t figured out.

by hans on Oct 17, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

how much more is he going to physically develop…he’s already like 6’4" 230. I think the development has to do with “figuring out” how to consistently use that size to his advantage…which isn’t a given. It’s a given he’s physically capable of hitting long HRs, and he’s already got that. The consistently making solid contact and elevating the ball is harder.

by APV on Oct 17, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The relevant physical development isn’t just height and weight, it’s the development of more strength in the arms and shoulders. Most men in their late 20’s have seen this just by looking in the mirror, or going up a shirt size.

by Jay on Oct 17, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, you know me, it’s all about age. Weglarz was 20 this year, no man muscles at all on the guy. He hit a few bombs (10) and he hit 25 doubles and triples. My concern with him isn’t that he won’t develop the power, it’s that he needs to become a little better contact hitter in order to exploit his discipline and power. That is, it’s fine to hit .270, but I doubt .270 in Kinston is going to translate to .270 in the majors. He’s got the discipline, and his ISO might double, but he won’t be able to maintain that walk rate as he moves up, so it seems like he’d better start getting more consistently good wood.

With Mills, it seems like he’s older, because he was drafted out of college a year and a half ago. Truth is, he just turned 22 a couple of months ago, so it stands to reason his power will develop more fully over the next two seasons, age-22 and age-23 officially. He doesn’t look like a likely impact bat, but a very good bat, sure. Lots of well-rounded power hitters peak late anyway.

by Jay on Oct 17, 2008 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, c’mon. 24 HRs at age 19 is a lot of homeruns. That’s once every 18 ABs or so. This year, LaPorta went yard once every 16 ABs.

Obviously there’s a lot of risk with Weglarz but if he’s not a real power prospect then I don’t really know what one looks like at age 19 or 20.

That’s a pretty decent question. What does a power hitter look like at 19 or 20? I wish I could get a combined line on that.

by afh4 on Oct 17, 2008 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent analysis, rec city

by Roger Dorn on Oct 17, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fantastic. Also, I think the term, “Make Stick” should be universally adopted around here and probably added to the Wiki.

Does anyone know where I can get MiLB → MLB statistics in like, a spreadsheet form (especially important is that the players have the same unique identifier)? If so, I can do a ex-post regression to see what this looks like across all of MLB.

I will curve fit the balls off this.

Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.

by gte619n on Oct 18, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We have a wiki?

by world dictator on Oct 18, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Only if you know how to ask for it, I think. It’s like the double-double at In-and-Out.

by fleerdon on Oct 19, 2008 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great stuff, Dave. I went back and glanced at ManRam and Branyan’s years when I wrote the initial comment and thought the same thing-how low the power numbers are.

Obviously it’s parroted all the time but we really have to ignore power numbers when guys are young and look at K’s, contact, plate discipline, and size.

I wonder what the likely outcome is for a guy like Branyan-insane power very young. I wonder if there are many guys like that who turn out.

by afh4 on Oct 18, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Abner Abreu is a good example of this.

by bewwolv on Oct 18, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I still think Wegz tracks Adam Dunn pretty closely.

by fleerdon on Oct 19, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here’s the problem with that. Dunn played 66 games in the bigs as a 21-year old, hitting 19HRs in that span and putting up an ISO over .300. Wegz will probably spend his entire age-21 season in Akron, and his best ISO comes from 2007 when he put up a number of .224 split between A- and A+. Wegz has some similarity in his skill set, but is actually quite different in actual performance/level/age issues. Dunn did start his age-21 season at AA, so maybe Wegz will do what he did then next year (hit 32HRs in 94 games at the AA/AAA level), but I’m not holding my breath.

I like Wegz a lot. He is a great prospect. It’s possible he’ll be a great power hitter in the majors. But you can’t, right now, project some sort of equivalence between him and one of the top 5 power hitters over the past 8 seasons in the majors.

by APV on Oct 19, 2008 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, but I just did.

Seriously, though, I don’t pretend that this is my forte, or actually even something I’m good at. I look at the two of them and I see some basic similarities in three-true-outcomeyness, advancement rate, and in having a pretty-good-but-not-earth shattering age 20 season. It gives me reasonable hope that Wegz is a productive major leaguer. I certainly concede he’ll have to have a ridiculous 2009 for me to ever mention him and Adam Dunn in the same sentence again, so “pretty closely” was an overstatement. Fair?

I enjoy it a great deal, and I think I get the gist of it, but this prospect analysis bootcamp element of LGT never really seems to take for me. I think I’m still a sucker for counting stats. If you’ve got a second, can you think of a decent comp for Wegz?

by fleerdon on Oct 19, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t have a good comp in mind, and in some ways, maybe Dunn isn’t a bad comp. I guess my main point is to rally against the homerism for our own guys. I tend to think I’m as much of a champion of the guys in the Indians system as anyone around here, but I also try to keep some reality about what we can reasonably expect from these guys based on what they’ve actually done up to this point. Jay has his PTM list, which places a premium on age and level. Another thing I tend to look for are guys who put up truly exceptional numbers in any part of their game (guys who go "Kouzmanoff"). I like to look at those guys because those truly exceptional numbers are occasionally a sign of true breakout season in which a guy has really elevated his true talent level. Aaron Laffey is a good example of this. He always had good age/level numbers on his behalf, but never had truly great numbers (except perhaps his GB-rate) until 2007. All of a sudden he showed a dramatically increased ability to strike guys out in addition to force them to hit the ball into the ground. And he showed this across both Akron and Buffalo. The followup challenge is to then repeat that performance, to show that what you saw really was a consolidation of talent rather than a freak year. Wegz has fantastic OBP skills. It’s the kind of skill you can have some confidence will remain solid as he advances because he is so good at it. It’s also the kind of skill which we can hope will be a positive indicator of other skills, like power, developing in the future. Michael Brantley showed an exceptional ability to make contact this year. A guy like Jon Gaub, who I don’t think any of us knew prior to this season, put up exceptional K-numbers in A ball this year (striking out ~40% of the guys he faced). That’s the kind of number you have to pay attention to. They are the kind of numbers that, to me, make a guy interesting.

I shouldn’t write posts while doing multiple things…this is one of the more rambling posts i’ve made in a while.

by APV on Oct 19, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like this post. Not as rambling as mine.

As old school as it is, I really think it comes down to batting average for which of these three (LaPorta, Mills, Weglarz) is going to make it. If any of them can hit .270 in the majors, they will be a good corner player, the power will be there. But hitting .270 in the majors is a really hard thing to do. What is the best proxy for BA in the majors? My guess is BA and K’s. So far LaPorta has shown the best BA (mainly from college), Mills was pretty good last year, Weglarz has not done it yet but he is young. It will be fun watching these guys.

by oxforddave on Oct 19, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I want you to know, Dave, I want Marte off the roster just so you and I don’t have to fight anymore.

by Jay on Oct 19, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But then I would never post! It is hard to post when you just agree with main thread.

by oxforddave on Oct 19, 2008 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But hitting .270 in the majors is a really hard thing to do.

Nah, you just need to be hot for two weeks right Jay? :-)

by world dictator on Oct 19, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Batting average is the least of that guy’s problems.

by Jay on Oct 20, 2008 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I enjoy it a great deal, and I think I get the gist of it, but this prospect analysis bootcamp element of LGT never really seems to take for me.

Glad I’m not the only one who feels this way. I’m probably just too dumb/lazy.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Oct 20, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I never would have guessed this many threads would turn into Garko discussions during the offseason.

And the playoffs aren’t even over yet.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Oct 17, 2008 11:37 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If I may…. Gark represents the season to me. Going into this season I had high expectations. What followed was a huge disappointment.

Now going into next year we essentially have the same problems we needed to address last year. But without CC.

What should my expectations on Gark be? and for the team?

proverbial "moron in a hurry"

by 94neverout on Oct 17, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with the first paragraph. Garko is a nice metaphor for the season (except for the Indians playing better in the second half)

I don’t agree with the second paragraph. I think we need a lot more than we did last offseason, considering the loss of Westbrook, the lack of any bullpen stepping up-itude, and even the loss of Blake, Byrd and the continued corpse-like status of Dave Dolilciueuci (misspelled out of spite.)

by NickFantana on Oct 18, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

How many times has Kieth Law actually seen Mills at the AFL? If the answer is one, I’m gonna be kind of pissed.

by Joe. on Oct 17, 2008 11:47 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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