Looking Ahead to 2009 (with Bill James projections)
by Kyle Boddy on Oct 22, 2008 6:56 AM EDT
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PrintEd. Note: The writeup below includes an advance release of the 2009 projections from The Bill James Handbook 2009, which are used with the permission of the book's publisher, Acta Sports. The book will be available on Nov. 1 and can be pre-ordered direct from the publisher by clicking this link. We're not affiliated and aren't making a commission, just giving credit where credit is due. Everybody knows that Bill James rocks. [Jay]
I got an advance copy of Bill James's 2009 projections (as did Jay, I think). Here they are for Cleveland Indians hitters (AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS):
Hafner,Travis 0.270 0.384 0.496 0.880 Sizemore,Grady 0.277 0.374 0.500 0.874 Martinez,Victor 0.300 0.374 0.463 0.837 Choo,Shin-Soo 0.282 0.365 0.452 0.816 Shoppach,Kelly 0.256 0.328 0.485 0.813 Garko,Ryan 0.282 0.358 0.449 0.807 Peralta,Jhonny 0.274 0.341 0.461 0.802 LaPorta,Matt 0.252 0.324 0.446 0.771 Francisco,Ben 0.271 0.334 0.428 0.762 Gutierrez,Fran 0.271 0.329 0.428 0.757 Cabrera,Asdr 0.277 0.349 0.404 0.753 Dellucci,David 0.241 0.329 0.409 0.738 Marte,Andy 0.248 0.314 0.408 0.722 Carroll,Jamey 0.260 0.340 0.329 0.669
And pitchers (IP / BB / SO / ERA):
Betanc,Rafael 72 18 70 3.19 Mujica,Edward 45 11 39 3.93 Lee,Cliff 194 42 146 3.90 Perez,Rafael 77 23 71 3.32 Kobayashi,Masa 51 14 37 4.31 Lewis,Jensen 70 27 70 3.84 Reyes,Anthony 168 53 135 3.88 Rincon,Juan 56 23 50 4.01 Laffey,Aaron 121 37 72 4.36 Sowers,Jeremy 83 24 45 4.28 Westbrook,Jake 64 20 35 4.14 Carmona,Fausto 141 53 88 4.17
Some early thoughts:
- Asdrubal's numbers are perfectly acceptable... if they let him play as an elite defensive shortstop. As a second baseman, they are marginal at best. Moving Asdrubal to SS, Peralta to 3b, and trade (and negotiate an extension) for Brian Roberts would be very ideal IMO. The Orioles need a bunch of filler and league-average players. We have a lot of those.
- We need to trade Kelly Shoppach. His value will never be higher when you combine his work in 2008 plus the fact that this year's free agent catchers have a bunch of 35+ year olds on the list who can't hack it anymore (Varitek et. al.). Yes, it would be great to have him catch 100 games while Victor catches 62, reducing the load on both, but that kind of luxury is reserved for teams that aren't the Indians. Like BPro said, "it's hard to find a backup catcher this good. Hell, it's hard to find a starting catcher this good."
Shin-Soo Choo- I am hoping for better upside from LaPorta, but who knows.
- Our pitching is thin.
Payroll considerations on the next page ...
It looks like we'll gain a bit more payroll flexibility. Our payroll in 2008 was $78,970,066.
We drop this much in salary commitments from former players in 2008, not including losing these players entirely from the 2008 total payroll (as well as Sabathia):
$6,100,000 (Casey Blake)
$4,000,000 (Joe Borowski)
$1,500,000 (Aaron Fultz)
$1,681,148 (Jason Michaels)
Salary increases for our players falls in around $8M. I think we end up with a 2009 projected payroll of $64-66MM, meaning we have some payroll flexibility assuming that Dolan keeps payroll north of $75MM (not a foregone conclusion, unfortunately).
Signing Brian Roberts seems like the obvious and completely possible thing to do. I'd like to see a lineup of:
CF Sizemore
LF LaPorta
RF Choo / Gutierrez platoon
DH Hafner
1b Garko
2b Roberts
SS Cabrera
3b Peralta
C Martinez or Shoppach (assuming we trade one of them)
If we can get a ton of Victor, we should deal him instead of Kelly, since we have Carlos Santana tearing shit up and Shoppach is young. Max Ramirez (the catcher we dealt that ended up with Texas) might start next year - Bill James projected him to have a batting line of .308/.390/.548, vomit. Oh well.
Anyway, if they get Roberts and we end up with that lineup, I would be most happy.
However, a pitching stable of:
SP Lee
SP Carmona
SP Reyes
SP Laffey
SP Sowers
Long Mujica
Setup Lewis
Setup Rincon
LOOGY Perez
Setup Kobayashi
Closer Betancourt
...does not inspire much confidence in me, mainly because I am positive that Reyes will go down with an injury and Laffey/Sowers are back-end starters, nothing more.
Meh. Even if we don't trade Roberts, we're slightly better than a .500 team and we could go on a tear. Still, we need an impact player - either LaPorta blossoming, or trading for Roberts. Preferably both.
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Ok, I’ll start. I am not familiar with how Bill James’ projections fair out over time. Maybe the guy has got a stellar track record. I don’t know. But I am surprised by many of those lines. Over all, I’m pretty non-plussed by that team, if he is correct. If we get that out of Hafner and Vic, that is a less than inspiring lineup. What’s with Garko’s numbers? No progression from Ben Fran or Gutz? But Jhon falls off slightly? What’s the logic?
Fausto doesn’t regain even a shadow of his former dominance? Reyes, Laffey, Sowers, those three should be competing for the 4th and 5th starter spots.
Ok, relax. I’ve gotten myself all worked up over this. I’m putting my coffee down. This is all BEFORE Shapiro pulls off his next genius move.
proverbial "moron in a hurry"
Projections
Bill James does reasonably well, IIRC – clearly PECOTA is the best, but it won’t be out for months. I figured I’d just post them and start some discussions.
I think Francisco and Gutierrez have little, if any, progression left in their careers. I agree with him (and I’m pretty sure PECOTA does as well).
I think James is predicting injury for Carmona based on his 2008 campaign, which is why his numbers are down. Like you, I think Carmona does a bit better and posts ERAs in the mid-3’s.
However, your general point is something I said as well – this team is just not very awe-inspiring. We need an impact bat, and not a bunch of washed up veterans or castoffs like Dellucci/Michaels or Bullington (respectively).
Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
clearly PECOTA is the best
I’m not a fantasy baseball fanatic and really don’t care much about different player projection systems. But in regards to your statement I would refer you to a recent THT article on the subject. Even more so, I’d refer you to a follow-up on that article (and read the comments) over at Inside the Book.
I think Tom’s quote is probably a good one:
In any case, I hope that more researchers evaluate the forecasting systems like David did, so that we can stop with the nonsense that one system is better than the other. As I’ve said in the past, it is a very dubious claim, akin to saying a team that wins 85 games is better than a team that wins 84 games. Marcel will win 83 or 84 games, the good forecasting systems will win 84 or 85, and the not so good will win 81 or 82.
I actually think those numbers look high with notable exceptions that make things look worse. I can’t imagine Hafner hitting that and if LaPorta actually makes it to the bigs that seems like a decent debut line.
I just don’t buy that out of Peralta, Vic, Choo, and Sizemore you won’t get two guys with all-star type numbers. You won’t get it out of all of them but a couple of them will be great. The smart money’s probably Vic and Sizemore but I wouldn’t be surprised to see JP bring the whooping stick.
Sizemore’s numbers are All-Star quality, IMO. An .874 OPS with excellent defense in CF is about as good as it gets!
But I agree, Hafner’s numbers are crazy high. Still wouldn’t mind seeing it. And I agree about LaPorta.
Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
Sizemore’s numbers are All-Star quality, IMO. An .874 OPS with excellent defense in CF is about as good as it gets!
Yep, I agree. But Grady probably has 2-5 MVP type seasons in him between now and, what, age 32? I don’t think it’s hyperbole to think we’re going to see Grady reach up into OPS+ of around 140 a couple of times in the next few years.
Now, he could be plateauing, no question. But I don’t think so.
I don’t disagree. But that roster with those projections put them in rebuilding mode with few chips to deal. “Atom” Miller should have pitched in the majors this year, at least as a Sept call up. Laffey and Sowers should have made cases this year for 3rd and 4th starters this year. They are a young team. Young teams are supposed to show flashes of potential. Haf and Vic are both very young players who look like they are flirting with the end of their careers. I hate to say it, so I won’t directly. Should the staff get back in touch with Byrd’s dentist?
proverbial "moron in a hurry"
Ok, this is absurd on a ton of levels.
1-The Indians have tons of trading chips. The farm system is going to be top 10 this year and if the Tribe wanted to go that route they could deal off Hodges, Huff, Mills, Weglarz, Santana, and LaPorta and get all kinds of value.
2-Hafner is not “young” by any baseball standard, let alone “very young.” He’ll be 32 next year. He’s not young. Similarly, Vic is not young. They’re both guys that are middle aged as baseball players.
3-Victor has had one bad year, ever, and it was because of a repairable injury that has been repaired. He OPSed .833 in Sept and Oct after his return. How, exactly, is he flirting with the end of his career?
4-The idea that based on Bill James Projections not, you know, actual numbers the Indians-not even the Indians’ players but the actual ballclub-ought to be contacting somebody who can provide performance enhancers. Well. Sheesh. What exactly are you even talking about?
by afh4 on Oct 22, 2008 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Absurd, yes. somewhat intentionally, I was actually trying to make fun of myself but I did a horrible job of it.
1 – not addressing, we can argue, but I bet we agree on all of these guys and their potential. More to the point is, in short, it is not a superbly strong minor league system. Not like in years past when they were winning minor league championships. and no huge trading chips there regardless.
2- 32, he should be in his power-hitting prime.
3- lost power. I mean lost. gone. where’d it go? What 1 double and 1 home run since his return. and doesn’t all that injury thing sound a little vague and familiar?
4- yeah….I sort didn’t write that well. my bad. see first statement.
My point clearly without trying to be clever or witty is this, this is a team with the same holes going into this season as the next plus a few more. Vic and Pronk have to bounce back or they are in rebuilding mode sooner than expected.
proverbial "moron in a hurry"
Pronk does not have to bounce back. The Indians were the best team in the AL in the second half without any hint of Travis Hafner.
This extended window is no longer based on anything to do with Hafner. He’s a relic. An interesting relic because there’s a chance he could actually be productive again but this team doesn’t need him and they’ve acted accordingly in their acquisitions-a DH can be patched together out of Shoppach, Vic, Garko, LaPorta and a FA or two.
Vic got bone chips cleaned out of his elbow. Big deal. Just because the Indians FO has overseen one of the strangest declines in recent memory doesn’t mean that all injuries on the Indians become a reason to panic.
The system is a lot better than most people realize. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s top 5. Carlos Santana is a very, very big deal.
Our system definitely looks much, much better than a year ago. Especially on the offensive side. We had a somewhat disappointing season on the pitching side, but that was an area where we had quite a bit of depth. There were not many disappointments offensively with a lot of quality additions (Laporta, Brantley, Santana, Chisenhall).
how was their pitching in that second half? And how likely are they to do a repeat performance?
Vic, .300 hitter, great hitter, great eye, no panic. Sean Casey was already traded away. Plus he can’t out run… well, anyone but Hafner. So they have no spot for him hitting 2, 3, 4 or 5. really. If he doesn’t have the threat of power, I’m not sure what they do with him.
You are right. I am undervaluing the minor league teams. But I dare say the Indians need that talent sooner as opposed to later. Akron had a great team. Buffalo did not. Age factors at levels etc. Thankfully, that buffalo team is gone. That’s supposed to be a joke.
proverbial "moron in a hurry"
That view of Victor as a hitter in a lineup is extremely narrow and ultimately not realistic. Even with his total lack of speed, and even if his power is cut in half, any team would be lucky to have him batting 7th. Essentially, your comment makes no sense at all.
I think you just agreed with me.
Below average speed. Great bat without great power. What should we say, average defense at 1st? Are we looking at him as a catcher or at 1st? Or is he DH?
If Fausto doesn’t return to greatness, if Lee regresses slightly, let’s say the bullpen is terrific, this team will still need to hit better than it did this year. And they may need to do it with power because they lack overall speed.
More to the point, let’s say he is a #6 hitter and let’s assume Hafner is done being Pronk. Are you happy with that lineup if he is the #6 hitter?
proverbial "moron in a hurry"
I think Vic’s history as a double’s machine shows he can get along just fine
…and when did we start expecting catchers to be fast?
by world dictator on Oct 22, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Hello 94neverout,
As WD said, Victor has great doubles power. Personally, Victor is at his best when he’s hitting .300 with around 20-25 HRs and a lot of 2Bs. Victor was never projected to be a 30+ HR hitter (doesn’t mean he couldn’t have a season or two where he had 30+ HRs), so I don’t think he has to hit more HRs than he showed he could hit in the past when he was healthy.
Even if he only hits 15 HRs, if he hits .300-.320 and drives in 100-120 RBIs, that’s good enough for me to hit anywhere from #3-#5 in my lineup.
Last time I check, many people still think Joe Mauer is one of the best-hitting catchers (if not players) in ML baseball, and he’s hitting for less power than Victor (and Mauer was healthy for the most part in 2008; Victor was not).
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
It’s been proven many times that the prime of a player’s career is ages 27-29 (give or take a couple years). Most player are past their prime at 32. That doesn’t mean a 32-year-old can’t be great, because many are, but it’s not their prime. Most players aren’t Bonds or Manny.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Oct 22, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
1. Where’s the J-Barf projection? Huff? S-Lewis?
2. He seems a little pessimistic on Laporta. But even at that conservtive of a projection LaPorta is still above either BenFran or Gutz. He should be up here by June.
3. The Hafner and Choo lines look really good. I’d take 2007+ Hafner and 2006 Choo in a heartbeat at this point.
4. The Marte line looks ugly, but it does represent a significant uptick in power from 2008. Considering power was supposed to be one of his big assets any progress in this direction is a good thing.
5. Betancourt’s line looks great. So does Reyes’.
6. The pitching stats are not optimistic overall. The most alarming thing to me is the IP projections. I don’t know if they are based on projected playing time or injuries or both, but they are bleak. If he is right:
a. We need 2 starters from outside that list. Maybe one turns out to be SLewis or Huff.
b. But I think FA priority #1 is a reliable, predictable #3 type veteran starter.
What? Where in the IP projections do you see the need to acquire two starters? According to James our starters are Lee, Carmona, Laffey, Reyes.
by world dictator on Oct 25, 2008 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions
The predicted IP for our starting staff is very low. Look at the numbers:
Pitcher IP BB SO ERA
Lee,Cliff 194 42 14 3.90
Reyes,Anthony 168 53 135 3.88
Laffey,Aaron 121 37 72 4.36
Sowers,Jeremy 83 24 45 4.28
Westbrook,Jake 64 20 35 4.14
Carmona,Fausto 141 53 88 4.17
Total: 688 IP
That is only 137.6 IP from each of our 5 starting slots and that’s using 6 starters. Take away Lee and we are down to 123.5 IP for slots #2 – #5. If we want to average 6 IP per start from our starters (6 IP/G x 162 G= 972 IP) , we are missing 284 IP from our starting staff.
That’s more than 1 starting picther.
I agree that we need to add starting pitching to the group of six listed above. If Carmona returns to 2007 form, that 141 is probably way low., so that will help. On the other hand, I think that’s optimistic for Reyes, who has had injury issues. At the very least, we need one veteran inning-eating type starter and we need one of Sowers/Laffey/Huff/Jackson to establish themselves if we’re going to contend.
I think the innings between Huff/SLewis is expected to fill a lot of innings. I agree with your first point though, i don’t know why they weren’t projected. I assume they didn’t spend enough time in the ML.
by world dictator on Oct 28, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought the same thing at first, but LaPorta is projected despite not spending a single day in the majors last year. It may just have been that he is so high profile that James had to put him in. But I think Huff is as likely to contribute in 2009 as LaPorta. I would have also thought that he would have bothered to project players who were actually on the team last year.
I find projections like this very hard to evaluate without some sense of the dispersion around these estimates. For example, Hafner projects to an .880 OPS, but is the 95% confidence interval around that projection something like .800-1.000, or is it more like .650-1.100.
I also struggle looking at these because there’s no league context. We’ve been seeing a league-wide drop in power and if that continues doesn’t an .800 OPS start to look better?
Am I wrong in thinking that James and his staff just make these up? In reading the handbook last year I thought that they literally just went through a discussion/debate process. Not that that’s not rigorous-it’s a lot of people who know a lot about baseball obviously.
This seems sort of insane in looking back. Does anyone know if I’m making this up?
It’s an interesting comment to me, because I’m looking at another projection system right now and thinking about those same issues — and wrestling with my own misgivings in general about relying on the data alone. Time after time, the data ends up looking so … limited.
Where I’m at so far is, these projection systems rarely come up with radically different answers, even including Marcels, which is advertised as a “dumb” system that departs only slightly from simple arithmetic. Beyond that, we have what I call the “narrative” — what other information we have about the player and his season that isn’t reflected in the stats. Projection systems “know” that Pronk missed time, but they don’t know why. They don’t know that Victor’s 2008 stats were deflated by weeks of playing hurt, and they don’t know the seriousness of the injuries, i.e., whether it’s realistic to expect a full bounce-back relative to age.
We know those other things. It is real information, even if it’s not as precise as the statistical data — which is generally not as precise as it looks, anyway. My bottom line is that while it’s understandable for a system’s author to stick to purely objective data, it’s foolish for any person individually to project a player without incorporating — cautiously — everything we know about that player.
I agree completely, and I think a “smart” system would allow for personal modifications of the baseline projections based on, for lack of a better word, human intelligence. I think a really good system would publish their model projections (including mean projection and confidence intervals around the mean) and a statement about the additional modification added by the author, presumably with some statement as to why the modification was added.
BPro doesn’t go that far but they usually will make a comment if they expect something better than what PECOTA projects.
Steel Nick
Yeah – I seem to recall an article distancing themselves from their seemingly-overly-optimistic prediction for the Rays this year…
by Peter Bendix on Oct 22, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
That was just Joe Sheehan. Nate Silver believed all along.
Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
Time after time, the data ends up looking so … limited.
Now we’re getting closer. Let me bore you with one more medical analogy: one of my attending docs usta say, “don’t just look at the lab data, look at the patient”. What he meant was, the lab data maybe improving but if the patient doesn’t feel better, you hafta look for something else.
It’s the same with baseball. If you look at Cliff Lee’s numbers alone from 2004 you might think that he’d have a decent year in 2005. But if you make note of the fact that his son had just months before had been Dx’ed with leukemia you might re-think that projection.
Lots of immeasurable stuff goes into human performance. The trick is identifying those variables and incorporating them into your projections. That’s the tough part.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
I don’t have his last handbook on me, but I’m not sure if they ever actually divulge how exactly they come up with the numbers.
As a fantasy player I look forward to all the projections every offseason, but in reality I don’t hang any hopes for my team on them. Even if he had our team OPSing .900 collectively I don’t think it would get more than a shrug from me. I mean, they’re projections.
Steel Nick
Kyle: I am seriously confused about your lineup. LaPorta second? Garko fifth? Roberts sixth? Martinez last?
I miss that other projection. The one where the middle of the order batted in 500 runs and we stole 200 bases.
Steel Nick
Yeah, that’s not a lineup.
Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
Like others, I’m surprised at how high Hafner projects. That OPS would be a damn-near miracle out of him in the post-PED era. Like Andrew, I’m a bit underwhelmed at Grady’s projection, not because it’s not excellent, but because it’s not excellent-er. I keep hoping for that huge breakout year and hoping it wasn’t wasted on 2006. I agree though that he’s probably got two or three more of those left in him, and given the increase in power last year and the OBP stabilizing aroun the .375-.385 range, I think he’s still on his way up. Plus, .875 with 30-ish SBs and GG defense in CF is not only good but probably HoF caliber if sustained. I’m also a bit disappointed with the Choo projection. I’m holding out hope that he can OPS in the high .800’s.
Burn on, big river, burn on...
I’d be really surprised if Shapiro makes a trade for Roberts. My general impression is that the Os tend to overvalue their players based on the Tejada and Bedard deals. Granted, Roberts is not Tejada or Bedard, but I still suspect they’ll want more than we want to give for Roberts.
I too will be surprised – the Orioles often want too much “value” for their players. In any case, the Indians would need Roberts to be here for more than 1 season for us to even consider trading for him. And, as mentioned, Roberts isn’t exactly young.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I’ll bet Chuck is happy to see Garko’s OPS over .800. At least someone else agrees with him (or was it .850?).
Also, Grady has the highest slugging percentage. He shouldn’t be leading off. That’s all I’m going to say.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
That was his Hafner prediction
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on Oct 23, 2008 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re confusing Garko with Hafner. What I said was that Hafner would OPS at either less than .600 or more than .900 and nothing in between. In other words he’s either completely washed up or has a correctable flaw. My gut tells me he’s done. Let’s see what happens next year.
I think you guys underestimate both Garko’s skills and his work ethic. I think he’s gonna work both hard and smart on his hitting this winter and come back playing most of the year like he did the end of September.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
Kyle, you’re way off on the salary increases. Just skimming Cot’s quickly, I came up with $13 million in contracted raises from 2008 to 2009, plus another million or so for Shoppach, who apparently is the only guy eligible for arbitration.
Cot’s says he started the season at 1.089, and I have never found a Cot’s number to be wrong. Assuming that’s right, he can’t possibly finish with more than 2.089, which will be more than a month shy of Super Two status.
As it is, his time in the majors this year was:
• Service time at end of 2007 season: 1.089
• Season started March 31, sent down May 4 — 34 days.
• Called up June 14, DL’ed June 19, actived and then optioned July 5 — 21 days.
• Called up August 8, season ended September 28 — 52 days.
• 89 + 34 + 21 + 52 = 196
• 196 – 172 (for one full year accrued) = 24
• Service time at end of 2008 season: 2.024
i said i trust you more. doesn’t mean this isn’t still my favorite kind of post, though. thanks for the breakdown.
if you love these posts so much, why don’t ya marry them?
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Oct 23, 2008 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I read this in Neyer’s chat yesterday and wanted to post it, and since this thread is about 2009 it seems like a good place.
Jonathan (Boston, MA): You’ve said a bunch of times that the Indians are favorites for next year. Aren’t some of their problems from this year likely to last into next? Isn’t Hafner probably finished? Is Carmona likely to recover after getting his arm destroyed by the 2007 season? Can Victor get healthy?
Rob Neyer: I see a team that suffered through all sorts of devastating injuries, traded their best pitcher in the middle of the season, and still won 81 games. They have some work to do this winter, and I’m not saying they’re in the World Series next year. But I do think they’ll win the Central.
Also,
Joe (OH): Have you looked at the starting rotation for the Indians next year? Lee and a bunch of question marks. Plus their BP was horrible this year.
Rob Neyer: Their batting practice was horrible? Oh, you mean their bullpen. Yeah, but that’s a point in their favor, because the bullpen is the easiest thing to fix. Remember their bullpen in 2007?
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
Damn you for reminding me of my Neyer mancrush.
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Oct 22, 2008 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Boy I hope the Westbrook prediction is way off. 64 innings with a 4.14 ERA? I’m thinking 100+ innings and an ERA in the low 3’s.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
I don’t know about the Indians, but a low 3s ERA seems pretty unlikely.
by Peter Bendix on Oct 23, 2008 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know how anyone can make a confident prediction about innings, much less ERA, after TJ surgery. It seems like the recovery and rehab time are probably pretty idiosyncratic to each patient.
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Oct 23, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s done that only once (in 2004, when it was 3.38), so I’d say, yeah, unlikely. Unless the hope is that he can pick up where he left off in 2008 (and by “left off” I mean April, not May).
Jake was getting better – he’s smarter and has had better command of his pitches. This TJ surgery thing will diffinitely impact his early performance, but I see him coming back and performing at the same level as he left off in 2008. We’ll see.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
No injury has been quite as frustrating as Jake’s – he looked great early on, and then poof.
As a completely OT aside, what do you make of the reports that Brady’s knee may be all messed up by infection? Never have I seen a story reach hyperbolic speeds so fast – I actually heard talk radio guys using words like “career-ending” and “amputation,” which is just stupid.
Oh no it’s not. MRSA – Methicillin Resistant Staphlococcus Aureus is one mean mofo. It’s that “flesh eating bacteria” that the tabloids are so found of. If it gets bad enough it’ll destroy the knee joint and lead to one bad-ass case of sepsis which would necessitate ambutaing the leg rather than risk the death of the patient. But this is the worse case scenario, it’s unlikely, but not impossible.
Nope, Mr. Brady – just like Kellen Winslow – is in deep Kim-Chee. Caution – caution is the watchword.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
I hope you’re right. But it’s pretty unusual for a 31-year-old pitcher to learn new tricks. Or, as would be true in Jake’s case, improve upon his old tricks.
by Peter Bendix on Oct 23, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
You make a good point.
But the fact that Cliff Lee’s turnaround is so rare actually helps my point. The exception that proves the point.
by Peter Bendix on Oct 23, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
It could. But it probably doesn’t. But it might.
But Cliff Lee is still the only real example of this that could possibly be attributed to Carl Willis.
by Peter Bendix on Oct 23, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Nerd Alert: I learned recently from a linguist friend that the phrase “the exception that proves the rule” came into use when “prove” meant “test”. So an exception that proves the rule is an exception that is particularly challenging to the rule.
But before I learned that, I had come up with the same explanation you did: the fact that we’re surprised by this exception shows that the general rule is that this thing doesn’t happen.
by Logodaedalus on Oct 23, 2008 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
“The exception that proves the rule” sounds a lot cooler than “nuh uh!”
by Peter Bendix on Oct 24, 2008 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Don’t forget the hot cup of tea in the other hand…
by Logodaedalus on Oct 24, 2008 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Scary as it is I actually agree with Chuck. I think Jake will be quite good when he comes all the way back.
But “all the way back” is probably in 2010, not 2009.
I think the projection is pretty good. Innings wise, he’s not going to get back before July, so 100 would be the max. If he has a setback, it’ll be under 50. If he’s just a little delayed, it will be in between. He also won’t be “stretched out” to seven-inning starts until late August, if at all.
As for the ERA, 4.14 is not at all bad — in fact, I think it’s encouraging. Consider that the projection has to account for a very reasonable possibility of having absolutely horrible control for a few starts.
Westbrook just might be the shot in the arm the Tribe’ll need during their pennant drive. Kinda like the Brewers getting whathisname this year, only we won’t hafta give up LaPorta to get him.
And I’m even more optomistic. I think that Jake might start his throwing program in early ST and be ready to start in June. But you know me, always the optomist.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.
by Harry Doyle on Oct 24, 2008 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Sometimes it’s called reality – I’d love to review the Rays website projections for 08. And sometimes its wild optomism – see the March 08 predictions for the Indians on LGT. Truth be told it’s just so much hot air. Baseball is subject to both the dialectic of talent development, the catastrophic demise of seemingly stable talents and the unforeseeable success of the obscure player. Sometimes – in fact every year – a team will have more than its share of one or all of these phenomenon – you know, like the Rays, or the Tigers, or, hopefully next year, my Indians.
It’s the randomness of baseball, coupled with its predictability, that make it fasinating and frustrating. I just love this game.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
by mauichuck on Oct 24, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s the randomness of baseball, coupled with its predictability, that make it fasinating and frustrating. I just love this game.
That was beautiful.
by Peter Bendix on Oct 24, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I usually lose my patience about fifteen minutes into those things. Not sure why I like baseball so…
Wait, what was I saying?
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on Oct 24, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
These projections project a middling number for any player’s career, adjusted for some average maturity or age decline. It isn’t terribly sophisticated in design. What would be far more interesting is a study of the projected margin of error for each projection. So, perhaps Grady’s projection has a margin of error of 10 points, but Hafner’s margin of error is 70 points. This margin study would be worthless without incorporating some estimate of the probability of recovering from various injuries.
I guess I’ll stay out of the Westbrook conversation.
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
You shouldn’t even be here until mid-2009 at the earliest.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Oct 26, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Kenshin Kawakami
Any follow-ups on the rumor that the Indians are considering signing veteran Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami?
CBS Sports reported in September that the Indians are prepared to make him a three-year, $27-million offer. Tampa Bay has also been rumored to be interested. Kawakami has said he wants to play for the Red Sox, however that may not be feasible now that Tim Wakefield will be returning to Boston in ’09.
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