Hello oxforddave,

The question is, would trading Shoppach for Lowell really be “selling high” on Shoppach?

I’m not convinced Lowell will continue to produce at a high level for several more seasons, both offensively and defensively. He’s at that age where the offense and range start to decline a bit; combine that with the injury to his hip he suffered last season, and that might just hasten a sharp decline in his ability.

If Lowell was younger (28-30), I think it’d be “selling high”, but Lowell will be in his age 35 season during the 2009 season, so expecting him to continue producing at a high level is likely too big of an expectation. We could get lucky, but I think that would be a big risk.

As hans mentioned, if Delcarmen and another prospect were included, I’d be more inclined to consider it and perhaps do that deal, but Shoppach for Lowell alone? No, as I think Shoppach could still put up double-digit HRs and play gold-glove caliber defense for another 3-5 years, at least. In my mind, that’s worth more than a 35-YO 3rd baseman coming off a serious injury and who has already showed signs of decline in his early 30s (age 31 with the Marlins when he only hit 8 HRs and batted .236). At what point will that Mike Lowell resurface? I think it would be sooner rather than later, arguably sooner than when Shoppach starts to falter offensively and defensively.

Just my 2 cents.

Thats fine, but I wouldn’t call trading him for Lowell “selling high”. If Shoppach produced the type of batting line you think he will have in 2009, but did it this past season, then I would say that would be a fair swap for Lowell (value of position, plus Shoppach’s defense, plus the power is real). So simply trading him for what would be estimated equal value for what you expect him to produce next season isn’t selling high, its selling low.

Since Seattle just hired a new GM, all bets are off on what kind of value they will place on Beltre. But to understand Beltre’s value, you need to fully appreciate defense, as well as somewhat-advanced offensive measures, given how much his ballpark depressed how raw statistics. If you don’t fully understand these, you will conclude that Beltre is less valuable than he truly is.

And I assume that Seattle’s new GM like any GM would be able to do these things. I think this is twice as true considering he came from the Brewers front office.

You’re absolutely right. But your counter-argument is no stronger than my original argument. We’re at an impasse – I still believe Beltre is "underrated," but I can’t prove it any more than you can disprove it.

I agree, they’re both unverifiable statements to some degree. But the problem is that you made the original argument that Beltre is underrated, therefore we could acquire him cheaply. Thus the burden of proof is on you. But even if you could find some way to quantify underrated, my argument for why Lowell could be acquired cheaper likely outweighs yours.

I disagree – simply because of Lowell’s age. He’s going to be 35 years old next year, and I’d rather not commit $12 million to his age-36 season as well. Yes, it’s bothersome that we wouldn’t control Beltre for more than a year, but that would give us flexibility. A lot can happen in the space of one year, and Beltre would buy us time while improving our chances in 2009.

I understand the underlying argument you’re making, but i think it still relies on the conclusion that $12 million is a lot of money to pay for a quality 3rd baseman. (Lowell, Beltre, or Other).

Additionally, I don’t think you can automatically assume that 35 is a magic wall and Lowell is going to fall off the cliff production wise. An older age means he might, emphasis on might, substantially decrease his offensive playing ability but there’s no proof that he will.

Its also worth noting that your argument regarding Lowell’s age and contract + my argument regarding not wanting to pay Lowell $12 mil per year if he’s on the bench, only strengthen my conclusion, Lowell would be easier and cheaper to acquire.

Bench player + Has some value + $24 mil over two years+ 36 = eager to trade him. (And I suspect, willing to throw a good amount of money in especially if they’d like to acquire Shoppach)

haha. Indeed.