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Hoynes scouts the Tribe for 09

This article appeared in today's (Sunday's) PD. It contains, among other things, an unnamed scout's appraisal of some the younger players on whom the Indians will "count" next year. There's been some good discussion on this site of the limits of scouts' opinions, which are often subjective and are particularly hard to read if you don't know who the guy is, as in this case. But, a couple of things here surprised me a little: the scout is pretty lukewarm about Asdrubal's play at short this year and seems generally critical of his range. Maybe that's a reaction to his being "out of shape," but I wondered if that was actually something that the data bear out. The scout is also more enthusiastic about Zach Jackson than about some of the other Indians young lefties (he seems to like Laffey too). I guess if the comparison is to Scott Lewis and Sowers, that's not too surprising, but many people saw Jackson as just a fill in for this year; the scout suggests he may be a little better than that. I hope he's right!

One thing the scout says that sounds familiar: he advocates playing Victor at first and underlines Garko's limitations.

Link about 1 month ago 340x_tiny peter m Comment 7 comments 0 recs |

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Jackson strikes me as the type of guy that scouts will love, but just doesn’t translate it into actual good production.

by hans on Oct 6, 2008 10:59 PM EDT   0 recs

Hello hans & peter,

I too am not that enthusiastic about Jackson’s future, although admittedly, he did do better in his brief time in the Majors than I thought he would. Arguably, I think his biggest problem outside of his last 2 starts or so, was that he would allow 1 big inning (3-4+ runs), not being able to minimize the damage. Despite his better-than-expected results, still, at best, I think he’s a serviceable starter who could fill in for short periods reasonably well, but I think Lewis and even Sowers may be better bets long-term than Jackson.

Jackson may have the first-round pedigree and such, but I’m not sure he truly has an out pitch that he can rely on to get guys out. While Sowers may not have an out pitch as such either, he’s younger and has shown some increases in velocity. Plus, Sowers showed more potential in the Minors than Jackson did, which is why I’d give him an edge. As for Lewis, he certainly has an out pitch (curveball, I think; or is it the changeup?) and pitched arguably as well or better than Jackson did. Granted, it was a SSS, but it was also a SSS for Jackson as well, and of the two, the Indians would likely go with Lewis long-term over Jackson, being that Jackson was basically a throw-in (that the Indians wanted, granted) in the Sabathia trade, while Lewis was a 3rd-round pick (and considered a 1st-round talent by the Indians if not for the TJ surgery while Lewis was at OSU), who the Indians have invested a lot of time in.

Therefore, I see the Indians seeing a lot of viable potential in Lewis, so obviously, they see something in Lewis that makes them think he has good potential of being a viable ML starter for years to come (provided he stays healthy), and based on his early results, I can’t see why he can’t produce at a solid level over the coming years, growing pains understood.

As for Cabrera, I think many scouts think that Cabrera’s best value is at SS, not 2B; the extra weight he had earlier in the season could have perhaps skewed this scout’s perspective, but I’d think he’s in the extreme minority of scouts who think that Cabrera can’t handle SS at the ML level. To me, it seemed like he played the position very well, especially as the season went along. Only time will tell (and the opportunity to play there regularly) if Cabrera can handle SS, but to me, he seems like he would fit perfectly there and would allow the Indians to move Peralta to 3B if they want to go that route in the near future.

Just my 2 cents.

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Oct 7, 2008 9:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

To me, the ranking goes:

Sowers
Lewis — snuck up on hitters
Jackson — also snuck up on hitters, but just isn’t that good

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Oct 7, 2008 10:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If I had to bet I’d say Lewis has an okay career as a 5th starter and Jackson is a AAAA bouncer.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Oct 7, 2008 10:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Jackson is a AAAA bouncer

Does he have the size for that?

by NickFantana on Oct 8, 2008 1:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hans, could you elaborate on this comment?

by ClarkM on Oct 8, 2008 1:24 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Indiansfan kind of hit on it. He was drafted in the first round so one can assume that the scouts loved him out of college, as far as statistical analysis goes, I don’t think there is a strong enough accuracy in predicting how players do entering the draft from their HS and college careers, so scouting plays a larger role then than after a player has logged a few seasons of minor league stats. “The Results” have escaped him through his career since being drafted, he was rushed through the system by Toronto for some reason, which I can only imagine was strong scouting reports (in 2005 he logged 59,54, and 47 IPs through A+, AA, and AAA). I mean he wasn’t really given the time to show weather or not he was ready, but for some reason he was pushed up two levels in a year.

by hans on Oct 9, 2008 6:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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