MLB.com top 50 prospects: Adam Miller makes #41

The rest of the list comes out in groups of 10 over the next four days. This quote from Miller's page is encouraging:

"Adam is fully healthy and was throwing the ball very well in the Dominican Winter League. This is the best he has looked in awhile. It's all about health with Adam. We are going to have to watch his workload in '09 and the best way to do that is in a bullpen role." -- Indians assistant GM of scouting John Mirabelli

about 3 years ago hans 16 comments 0 recs |

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TINSTAAPP. I’ll believe it when I see it.

by still ill on Dec 1, 2008 6:37 PM EST reply actions

Help me out on this one. There’s No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect?

by Voltaire on Dec 2, 2008 1:42 AM EST up reply actions

Somewhere a game show set is lit up, bells are ringing and the theme song is playing. You’ve won a brand new 1982 Cadillac Coupe de Ville!!!

by NickFantana on Dec 2, 2008 10:09 AM EST up reply actions

This is actually a real one. LGT didn’t make this up.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Dec 2, 2008 10:46 AM EST up reply actions

I remember being underwhelmed by their list last year. For instance, Adam Miller was #10 last year.

by ClarkM on Dec 1, 2008 7:08 PM EST reply actions

I’m honestly surprised he’s making any lists anymore. So…. that’s good?

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Dec 1, 2008 7:47 PM EST reply actions

His injuries have been persistent but generally minor. Based strictly on the facts, it would surprise nobody for this guy to strike out 200 in a season multiple times, that’s why he’s still making these lists.

by Jay on Dec 2, 2008 12:19 AM EST up reply actions

What have Millers injuries been in the past? I recall a finger injury, a blister problem, and I believe a slight elbow injury? The reason I ask is because I remember Beckett having similar minor injuries for most of his career with the Marlins.

by world dictator on Dec 2, 2008 5:06 AM EST up reply actions

The main one has been the elbow, which has shut him down twice for significant periods. The managed to avoid surgery that way, but the time spent shut down or in rehab just about adds up to going under the knife, so the elbow’s been a fairly major problem.

The finger injury (blister, tendon, surgery) I guess you would call minor because it was, well, it was a finger. But it did keep him out pretty much a whole year, and as a result the success of rest over surgery for his elbow has yet to be really tested.

The good thing is that all this has finally pushed him to the edge of the normal envelope for “young pitcher blowout” syndrome. Hopefully his elbow has become gritty enough to hustle through a whole season, even if it is from the pen.

by mcrose on Dec 2, 2008 10:03 AM EST up reply actions

I’m not sure the finger injury can be so easily passed off as minor. It was a tendon injury in his throwing hand, right? It’s my experience that hand injuries tend to be lingering problems.

by APV on Dec 2, 2008 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah. I was just using it to reflect Jay’s original comment, which I think was along the lines of typical career threatening injuries/surgeries to shoulder and elbow.

by mcrose on Dec 2, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

I think of the finger injury as “minor” mainly in the sense that it isn’t the type of injury that tends to end a young pitcher’s career. A huge pain in the ass, yes, disruptive, yes, but rarely career-threatening. In a sense, the bigger risk with the finger is eating up service time — they’ll want to make sure that finger is fully recovered before calling him up to the majors, because the last thing they want is for him to sit on the big-league DL for five months.

As for “young pitcher blowout” syndrome, I don’t know that we’re truly out of the woods on that. It is true that the “injury nexus” for young pitchers is highly focused around 21-22, but it probably isn’t a pitcher’s temporary 21-22-ness that causes career-ending elbow injuries. Rather, if a young pitcher is going to have a career-ending injury, it tends to happen at those ages. For most guys who have those injuries, it may be that no level of caution or care — even two full years of rest — was going to prevent them from eventually blowing out.

That’s the bad news, but there’s good news, too. The good news is that Miller pitched a full season of 159 IP at age 21, brilliantly and with no sign of his age-20 elbow issues. At age 22, he suffered blister problems but still got in another 65 IP before being shut down with, yes, elbow problems — but he was back on the mound just a few weeks later, pitching out of the bullpen for the last two weeks of the minor league season, and then in the 2007 AFL, and he was back in spring training. So the good news is the 224 IP at ages 21-22 before having an elbow problem, which turned out to be pretty minor.

I think that is reason for optimism, if not confidence, that he doesn’t have the kind of elbow problems that just can’t be outsmarted or outrun.

by Jay on Dec 2, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions