BA on Valbuena, via Callis

"Valbuena redeemed himself for a poor 2007 season in Double-A by returning there, raising his average by 65 points and increasing his power output. He earned a promotion to Triple-A at the end of June, and then played regularly for the Mariners in September, pushing Jose Lopez to first base. With a line-drive stroke and a knack for making contact, Valbuena is geared to hit for average with occasional power to the gaps. On the flip side, he has just enough juice to get himself in trouble when he gets pull-happy. He stands out with his bat speed, his fearlessness and for the fact that he never wastes an at-bat. Valbuena always has handled the bat well and shown a good eye at the plate, but his recent defensive improvement has raised his chances of playing regularly in the majors. While his speed is average at best, he shows good range to both sides and has a strong arm at second base. He turns the double-play pivot quickly and efficiently. Valbuena is ready for an expanded big league role and has a higher offensive ceiling than Cleveland's 2008 starter, Asdrubal Cabrera."

Callis says Valbuena bumps Rivero to become #10 on the Indians' list, and that none of the prospects Seattle received from the Mets would have ranked higher than Valgood in the Mariners' system.

6 months ago fleerdon Comment 64 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

This just brings joy and warmth all over on a frackin’ cold day. How many days until pitchers and catchers report?

Still the local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer" and confident that Gutz will succeed in Seattle.

by mjmarble on Dec 22, 2008 1:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Dec 22, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love how Shapiro took advantage of both Omar and seattle’s new GM.

Its not that either side got ripped off, but Shapiro took a player that would have normally netted either Joe Smith OR Valgood and wound up getting both.

Did anyone else read that Omar offered Shapiro Heilman originally, and Shap turned it down?

I think we wound up getting a better deal, but part of me wishes we could have gotten Heilman to give us another option in the rotation.

by world dictator on Dec 22, 2008 1:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I saw that. They’re just not into Heilman.

Name recognition means absolutely nothing to this front office, which is one of my favorite things about them. Contrast with the Dodgers, “Ooh, let’s get a bunch of guys who were on playoff teams five years ago!”

by Jay on Dec 22, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, like I said, we ultimately got a much better deal with Valgood and Smith, i’m just saying it would have been nice to get a starting pitcher. Of course the jury is out on Heilman as a starting pitcher and he is pretty old.

Bottomline, there’s no way you can evaluate this trade and say we didn’t get a great deal. (Sorry Gutz fans)

by world dictator on Dec 22, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with this now more than ever. Gutz has The Good Face, Valbuena is short, pudgy, and has plate discipline.

by joeee on Dec 22, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder what makes him think Luis has a higher offensive ceiling than Asdrubal.

by plato on Dec 22, 2008 1:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That concluding statement doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, either.

by Ryan on Dec 22, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The only thing I could figure was that Callis meant Valbuena’s ceiling is higher than Asdrubal’s 2008 numbers, and not Asdrubal’s ceiling.

I was either hoping that, or thinking that I had just misread the review and that they expect him to be pretty darn good.

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Dec 22, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He does seem to be comparing ceiling to ceiling.

Hard to believe Valbuena’s ceiling should be considered to be higher. Valbuena’s nifty 2008, at age 22, was almost a dead ringer for Cabrera’s nifty 2007, at age 21. They are basically the exact same age, born just 17 days apart.

by Jay on Dec 22, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Seems like he has the blinders on. The only thing I can think of is plate discipline (since he harps on it Valbuena’s). If you look solely at their AAA 2008 numbers, and I have no idea why one would, Valbuena walked a lot more.

by danvail on Dec 22, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

maybe he means as a 2nd baseman? Cabrera’s offense becomes more valuable as a SS, and perhaps Callis feels that Valbuena would provide more pop, which makes him a better 2nd baseman offensively.

I’m a little surprised btw that Valbuena makes the Indians top 10 but failed to crack the M’s top 10. I was under the impression that we have a better farm system than Seattle. Am I missing something here?

by JP_Frost on Dec 22, 2008 6:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shapiro acquisitions get an automatic boost in prospect cache.

That’s respect.

Helium Watch: Chuck Lofgren, OF

by jhon on Dec 22, 2008 6:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Somebody needs to do a fanpost on the difference between cache and cachet.

by still ill on Dec 22, 2008 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cachet*

/Busted.

Helium Watch: Chuck Lofgren, OF

by jhon on Dec 22, 2008 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it just comes from their evaluation that he has and will have more power than Droobs, enough that they worry about him trying to pull the ball too much.

But from a pure evaluation standpoint, they are remarkably similar in terms of plate discipline and being able to put the ball in play – altho its hard to ignore Cabrera’s quicker adaptation to advanced levels.

One thing from the vid RD74 posted – I was relieved that Valgood didn’t look too much like Ronny Belliard. I don’t mind short and squat in a decent 2B, just not at the tender age of 22.

by mcrose on Dec 22, 2008 11:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Droobs has posted better SLG %s throughout his career.

Career minors, age 18/19-22:
AC: .420
LV: .405
Age 22 AAA (last stint in minors for each)
AC: .475
LV: .373
First Stint in majors
AC (age 21): .421
LV (age 22): .347

by danvail on Dec 23, 2008 7:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know, but take a look at ISO in general – I think the scouts just look at him as having more natural pop than Droobs.

by mcrose on Dec 23, 2008 7:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ISO:

Age 22 AAA (last stint in minors for each)
AC: .149
LV: .071
First Stint in majors
AC (age 21): .138
LV (age 22): .102

Perhaps they’re looking at LD% and seeing that ACs is significantly higher than LVs, so AC has less room for improvement. Or perhaps they see LVs higher FB% and think that some of those FBs will end up over the fence, but this seems contrary to this quote:

“…Valbuena is geared to hit for average with occasional power to the gaps. On the flip side, he has just enough juice to get himself in trouble when he gets pull-happy.”

/Complete conjecture by an amateur

by danvail on Dec 23, 2008 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty good pick on the LD rates.

by Jay on Dec 23, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Looking at Droobs’ pitch type from 2007 to 2008 gets me excited. It seems to me like pitchers recognized his ability to hit the fastba///changeup, so they tried a lot more breaking pitches. Add that with his really strong bounce back from struggling early on gets you thinking that he figured all this out, and produced anyway. Now, he should be ready for just about anything.

Am I way off base here?

by danvail on Dec 23, 2008 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

*fastball/

by danvail on Dec 23, 2008 9:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

younger = more adaptable as a rule

by Jay on Dec 23, 2008 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you kind of are statistically hiding Valbuena’s best numbers- his AA 1/2 season last year. His SLG% was .483. Cabrera never put up a number that high. I’m not saying that justifies the conclusion, but I don’t think its as far out there as you suggest.

by DaytonDogg on Dec 23, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not really, that’s counted in the career minor stats. Besides the point that that one line is a bit cherry picked, it’s probably not directly comparable to anything in Droobs’ career, as the lowest level he competed at at age 22 was AAA, where he posted that .475 SLG%. Compare that to Valbuena’s .483 at AA at the same age, which one is better?

The ISO numbers, admittedly, are a bit different for that year. Valbuena posted a .179 in AA last year. Slater has never posted anything over .149, BUT he’s posted .144/.149/.138 in last year AA / last year AAA / MLB debut. Valbuena put up .071/.102 last year AAA / MLB debut. Slater’s been more consistent. I’m not sure how you can pick out that one line and say Valbuena has a higher power ceiling. I know you weren’t, it’s just I that I don’t see that conclusion looking at these numbers. Perhaps someone with more knowledge can point it out.

by danvail on Dec 23, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, what are those numbers?

ISO generally is defined as bases per hit, or slugging divided by average.

by Jay on Dec 23, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Do you think it’s a fair assessment to say that because of that high ISO LV put up in AA one year he might have a higher power ceiling? I literally don’t know, but it seems like a stretch.

by danvail on Dec 24, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No. I think it means something good for Valbuena, but Asdrubal’s path to the majors was so unusual, it’s hard to draw any direct comparisons or even to make sense out of it, except just to say, it’s impressive what he achieved at each age.

by Jay on Dec 24, 2008 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why did I have no idea this guy played in the majors in september?

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Dec 22, 2008 2:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not paying attention?

by Jay on Dec 22, 2008 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

FWIW, he got hits off of Greinke, E.Santana and Ziegler

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Dec 22, 2008 2:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Strangely, this description sounds somewhat like that of a certain Travelocity gnome.

by elsandito on Dec 22, 2008 4:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

More like a young Ronnie Belliard, actually.

by Jay on Dec 22, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How is Valbuena’s defense in shallow RF?

by danvail on Dec 22, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What’s funny is, you’re joking, but it’s no joke! A second baseman’s range in short right can make a huge difference.

by Jay on Dec 22, 2008 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here’s a glimpse of Valbuena, and Riggleman going apesh*t

by RD74 on Dec 22, 2008 8:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He was totally safe at 3rd. The ump blew the call.

And I don’t know that I’d call him chunky at all. He wears a baggy uni, but he doesn’t look like the second coming of Ronnie B.

Still the local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer" and confident that Gutz will succeed in Seattle.

by mjmarble on Dec 22, 2008 11:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like he has really long legs for a 2B, no?

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Dec 23, 2008 12:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ditto. But you have to admit he got a tad chunky as soon as he rounded second base. Still, just from a first view, he was taller and more athletically built than I thought he’d be.

I guess the biggest question in the infield as things stand is who’s going to get opening day playing time, Marte or Barfield? Shorter version: Is Jhonny gonna be our 3B? If Valbuena is looked on as a real 2B, does that influence the decision?

by mcrose on Dec 23, 2008 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Valbuena has to be a real 2B, because he doesn’t really play any other position. My impression is that the Indians are higher on Valbuena/Barfield than on Marte, but that’s mostly tea leaf-reading, and the bigger question is whether they acquire someone else entirely.

Covered the Valbuena-right-now scenarios in our original piece about the trade.

by Jay on Dec 23, 2008 1:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not Ronnie B now, Ronnie B at age 22.

by Jay on Dec 23, 2008 1:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stopwatch

I’ve got him at 11 seconds to 3rd. Is that fast?

by passed ball on Dec 22, 2008 10:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jose Lopez shouldn’t be playing 1B.

Yuniesky Betancourt grounded into 23 double-plays. Little wonder his popularity has waned so drastically.

I might not be as high on Valbuena as Callis, but I think i’d rather have our two former Ms IF prospects than their current ones.

Helium Watch: Chuck Lofgren, OF

by jhon on Dec 22, 2008 10:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, that is weird. That isn’t supposed to happen.

by Jay on Dec 23, 2008 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The walk rates for Betancourt and Lopez are atrocious. On the other hand, Cabrera and Valbuena have displayed good walk rates, especially relative to position. Lucky for us, the Mariners do not seem to value this difference as much as the Indians.

Also, by most accounts, Cabrera is better defensively at short than Betancourt and Valbuena is better defensively at second than Lopez.

by ClarkM on Dec 23, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t know about those defensive comparisons.

Asdrubal did this weird thing last season where he would go 3 for 25 or something, but with six walks. He just never stopped drawing walks, no matter how badly he was hitting.

by Jay on Dec 23, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Granted, there is little data at the big league level for Cabrera and Valbuena at their respective positions, so part of this is based on scouting reports alone. Cabrera is considered by most to be at least average defensively. Betancourt, per plus/minus is below average, -19 this year and -10 last year. Betancourt also shows up poorly in PMR, RZR and UZR. I think Cabrera has the edge fairly decisively.

Valbuena, according to the various scouting reports I’ve read, is supposed to be above-average at second. Jose Lopez, again per plus/minus has been average or better the past three years. This past year he was exactly 0 and +5 the year before and +9 the year before. So yeah, it was a bit of an overstatement to say that Valbuena, by most accounts is better defensively than Lopez. But, I just read in one of John Perotto’s articles at BPro that the Mariners were thinking of moving Lopez to first full time, which I’m presuming is some sort of indictment on his defense.

by ClarkM on Dec 24, 2008 3:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Moving Lopez to first is more of an indictment of their intelligence than of any player’s skills. As with Vidro, if you’re willing to move him to a non-skill position, he’s borderline DFA candidate.

I have not read that Valbuena is above-average defensively, my impression is that he’s solid, and that because of his body type, he’ll have to stay focused on his defense to remain solid, not unlike Jhonny at shortstop. I have read that he’s very good at the DP pivot, which in part is what reminded me of Belliard. Man, that guy had a wicked pivot.

by Jay on Dec 24, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

THIS highly touted IF prospect will certainly work out… right? RIGHT? I mean, c’mon! Now it’s just a numbers game!

Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.

by gte619n on Dec 23, 2008 10:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

He’s stayed under the radar until recently. Maybe we should find that encouraging.

Helium Watch: Chuck Lofgren, OF

by jhon on Dec 23, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

welcome to Cleveland, where pressure turns coal into dust but diamonds float down the Cuyahoga like so many soap suds

by APV on Dec 23, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs

Poetry Rec

Helium Watch: Chuck Lofgren, OF

by jhon on Dec 23, 2008 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that that’s a good thing. It just can’t help a player develop when he’s in his early 20s and everyone’s touting him as the second coming. For every Marte, there must be a guy who’s talent and potential isn’t projected to be as high but who develops into a good, or even great, player. It’s the yin and yang of the universe. Right? Right?!

"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter

by Denver Tribe Fan on Dec 23, 2008 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Praise Jobu.

by danvail on Dec 23, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.letsgotribe.com/2006/11/8/14626/5473

by SuddenSam on Dec 23, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That said, I know what you’re saying. His peripherals scare me, a lot. But I think his value has to be sky high-his ceiling is top 10 or so pitchers in the AL at an incredibly low cost for several years.

That’s me talking about Jeremy Sowers. What a weird year 2006 was.

by afh4 on Dec 23, 2008 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs