Fuentes ends up in Anaheim

Seems like he didn't get the $$ he wanted, but the Angels basically overpaid if he ends up as a set-up guy to Arrendondo or Shields.

about 3 years ago talonk 6 comments 0 recs |

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I would much rather have Fuentes on this contract than what the Indians gave Wood. The 10.24 k/9 and 2.68 k/bb for Fuentes’ career is comparable to Wood. Then consider he cost less money ($5 million if the options are picked up) and has a vastly superior injury history. The Indians may end up paying a significant portion of their payroll to an injured player in Wood. To me Fuentes is much lower risk. Plus he pitched in Coors Field! and so he may be better than his numbers suggest. It makes me wonder if the Tribe had any contact with Fuentes or if they preferred Wood why?

by Paranoid Arnold on Jan 5, 2009 5:53 AM EST reply actions

This is incredibly sloppy.

1-Wood is not “an injured player” and it’s ridiculous to refer to him as such.

2-Coors Field and Wrigley have relatively comparable Park Effects in the time since Wood became a reliever. In fact, in 2007 Wrigley was the most hitter friendly park in the majors.

3-Fuentes numbers look good last year, with a 2.26 FIP, but his FIP in years previous was 4.18 and 3.86. Wood’s FIPs as a reliever are 2.21 and 2.78.

4-Shapiro clearly had contact with Fuentes. There’s no way he didn’t-it’s against everything we know about Shap.

5-Wood was preferred because:

A-He didn’t want to extend the negotiating process, which had real value to the Indians. The Indians had to make a decision over what hole was getting filled in the FA market so that they could move on to filling other holes via trade; they’ve already made two significant trades this season, which managed to improve the Indians middle infield situation, outfield situation, and bullpen.

B-He has a much, much higher true talent level. With Wood, injury is a very real risk. With Fuentes, being bad is a very real risk. Shapiro chose the gamble on injury rather than the gamble on talent. I’m not saying that’s the right decision but it’s a clearly defensible one.

by afh4 on Jan 5, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions

1) I did not refer to Wood as an injured player that statement was preceded by the word “may” expressing a possibility
2) Using just 2007 is cherrypicking, Coors is a better hitters park. Plus, all I said was it impacted Fuentes projection, not that Wrigley wasn’t a hitter’s park also.
3) Good point.
4) We don’t know.
5) I think you are right here Fuentes probably wanted to drag it out and the Tribe couldn’t afford to wait. But who can know maybe they vastly preferred Wood.
B) I agree here. I just wouldn’t want to wager that significant a portion of the Tribe’s payroll on such a serious injury risk. We can’t afford many mistakes like the Yankees, because we can’t afford a replacement. Anyway, I hope it turns out for the best and I am excited to see Wood.

by Paranoid Arnold on Jan 5, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions

Actaully Coors hasn’t been a true hitters park in awhile, since they started humidoring the baseballs. Yes it is still a hitters park, but not the same one the Blake Street Bombers got famous on.

by talonk on Jan 5, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions

I think the cost difference is marginal. We’re talking about sub-Jamey Carroll money here.

They look like very similar pitchers right now, but Fuentes is two years older, and through age 26 he hadn’t even pitched 40 innings in the majors. At that same age, Wood already had 140 career starts.

Why does this matter? Because Fuentes’ career suggests a curve that probably will be coming down soon, while Wood’s history looks like a guy with HOF talent. He too will have a decline, but it probably will take longer, and again, he’s two years younger.

What people forget with a guy like Wood is that all pitchers have significant injury risks. In evaluating Wood’s signing, you have to consider his marginal injury risk, not the entire injury risk.

by Jay on Jan 5, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions

The thing that makes Wood interesting is that there are signs he could have an absurdly dominant season; that he could be as good as any closer in baseball. That’s not going to happen for Fuentes, who could just as easily flame out.

by jhon on Jan 5, 2009 5:17 PM EST reply actions