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PECOTA and the tribe

Newhat_tiny by oxforddave on

The PECOTA predictions from Baseball Prospectus are out. Here are my few takes on where the computer regressions may differ from conventional wisdom on key tribe members.

Hitters

PECOTA says that Jhonny Peralta is the 2nd best position player on the tribe in terms of WARP for 2008 and has the 2nd best career upside. It has always liked Jhonny partially because the skewed defensive metrics BP has. Still, Jhonny deserves much more love than he usually gets.

PECOTA loves Asdrubal Cabrera. For prospects it likes Carlos Rivero. Grady still has Barry Bonds as his #2 comparable.

PECOTA gives Hafner only 28 dongs. Ouch.

Predicts Andy Marte to be 50 OPS points less than Casey in 2008. Doesn't think much of Marte or Barfield (both with OBPs sub .310).

Pitchers

CC is in the top 5 pitchers, but gives CC a much higher attrition rate (14%) than the other top guys (Santana 3%, Peavy/Webb 8%). Something to think about when talking long term deals. Take this with a grain of salt as PECOTA has a hard time finding comparables for CC.

PECOTA loves Laffey. Basically says he is equal to Westbrook already in 2008.

PECOTA is not high on Carmona; it still thinks he is good, but expects a decent drop off. Only a top 30 pitcher in the majors, not top 10. Maybe it is the innings jump which it doesn't like (which would be reasonable). Laffey, Carmona, and Westbrook all have very high ground ball rates. Infield defense will be very important.

PECOTA hates on Sowers and Byrd. It doesn't like pitchers with what it considers no stuff.

Anyway, these are my takes on the numbers. It will be interesting how things shake out.

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Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Thanks for sharing.  good stuff.  i particularly liked these:

PECOTA loves Asdrubal Cabrera.

and

PECOTA loves Laffey.

I'll choose to glance past the negative ones.

by Brick. on Feb 4, 2008 10:31 PM EST   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
I'm expecting a drop off from Fausto, too.  I'd love to be wrong, but I'd surprised if he was one of the league's top 3 or 4 pitchers again.
Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Feb 4, 2008 11:06 PM EST   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
when i read Il faut d'abord durer my head says fausto and asdrubal

by Brick. on Feb 4, 2008 11:12 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
I read it and remember that I only speak English.
I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Feb 5, 2008 12:33 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Ernest Hemingway wrote it as a postscript on personal letters and some of his novels.  It means, "First, you must endure."  I find it fitting as both a Cleveland sports fan and an endurance athlete.

Plus it looks like Fausto and Asdrubal.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Feb 5, 2008 2:08 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
i love PECOTA and all, but i love more hearing things like these from major leaguers:

http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/gamecenter/recap/MLB_20070517_MIN@CLE/rss

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Feb 5, 2008 8:54 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Man, that game was incredible.
Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Feb 5, 2008 9:03 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Yeah, when I was watching it, I felt like I was hung over.

...or maybe I was.

Boodles anyone?

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Feb 6, 2008 4:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
It is only sensible to expect a drop-off, there's just so much room for regression.  But since he just turned 24, it should not surprise anyone if at some point he was that good again, maybe even more than once.

I also wonder what his projection would have looked like had they extrapolated his post-May numbers out to a full season, rather than using his actual stats.  Fausto's strikeout rate spiked after May, and he really doesn't look like the same pitcher if you look at post-May only.  Specifically, he looks a lot less like a fluke.

Unless they've made changes, one minor weakness of PECOTA is that it doesn't consider in-season trends at all, which for a young player, or for a player injured early in the season, often would be significant.

by Jay on Feb 5, 2008 10:38 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Nate Silver: We'll most likely have the PECOTA's out some time between my birthday (January 13) and the Super Bowl. That's about the same pace as we were at last year. They should be worth the wait, I hope. We're doing a lot more with platoon splits and first/second half numbers"

by 7foot3 on Feb 5, 2008 11:15 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Very cool.  The effect will be mild, since most first/second half differences are random, but I'm glad they're doing it.

by Jay on Feb 5, 2008 1:22 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
when he's mentioned it, he sounds like its something he just experimented with because it sounds right, but he wasn't sure if it really exists. later he said he found that there is a noticeable difference for pitchers (especially younger ones), but not so much for hitters. I know it would be best to find cases where the k/9 spiked up after may, or bb/9 dropped after july rather than just ordinary first/second half splits, but i would have to think that would require endless amounts of work.

by 7foot3 on Feb 5, 2008 1:28 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
As I recall, the shakedown on Carmona's 2007 was that the more advanced the metric, the better his performance looked, no? Doesn't that portend well for 2008?

by fleerdon on Feb 5, 2008 11:43 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
'Well' is a relative term, right?  He was 4th in VORP last year, and it is unreasonable to expect him to be that good again.  Even Santana, who was #1 in 2006, fell to 10th last year.  So say he drops to 20th, or 2007 Chien-Ming Wang territory? We'd be lucky to have it.

 

by Thommy on Feb 5, 2008 12:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Upon further thought, you can file this under "Unpopular Opinions":  Fausto might just have had his career year.  Normally, we expect players to get better when they are so young, but it is entirely reasonable to think that we've already seen his best season.  Mind you, I'm not saying he still won't have several (if not many) seasons as one the better pitchers in baseball, but he might not be as good as 2006 Fausto again.

by Thommy on Feb 5, 2008 12:58 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Oof, if he's never as good as 2006 Fausto again, we are screwed.

by afh4 on Feb 5, 2008 1:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
I considered correcting my post, but couldn't bring myself to a triple posting.  Thanks for pointing it out, you nounhole.

by Thommy on Feb 5, 2008 1:53 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
There are different types of advanced metrics.

The most basic kind deals with measuring raw production more accurately as it pertains to creating/preventing runs.  Going from the Idiot Stats to something as basic as OPS.

The next deals with context -- correcting for differences in opportunity, park and league environments.  EqA, Runs Created, etc.

Then we have the luck adjustments, going from ERA to RA to FIP, maybe looking at HR rates at the same time.  Haven't really seen a compelling, consolidated stat that does this.

The next level would be more nuanced BIP adjustments, incorporating some degree of regression to personal and historical norms.  In other words, correct the mistake of assuming that all pitchers/hitters regress to the same BIP or HR/F rates.

Back to Carmona, I think clearly he looks best considering the raw stats and traditional stats -- he nearly led the league in both ERA and Wins.  He didn't look as good in FIP or xFIP, but the issue there is that they're "Level 3" stats, and Carmona really needs to be viewed under Level 4.  (This isn't convenient homerism, either -- neither FIP nor xFIP gives any consideration to the fact that Carmona led the league by far in groundball rate, inducing about 150 more than your average #1 starter.)

What I've yet to see even theorized is a real synthesis of these, where you can look at a player's raw numbers, then neutralize it for context, then do a nuanced regression for luck.  Basically, a BIP-regressed EqA or a context-neutral (and more nuanced) version of xFIP.  I'm not sure why it hasn't been done, because the math doesn't seem that hard given that they already have some really good building blocks.

by Jay on Feb 5, 2008 1:39 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Interesting take. Are Wang and Carmona just lucky flukes, or is there something they are missing. I'm with you thinking it is the latter.

My guess is that this is a 2nd order effect in the sense that it is the combination of throwing hard and throwing heavy. PECOTA doesn't see the Ks so it assumes that they are not hard throwers, but that couldn't be further from the truth. This is something that any model will have difficulty with. PECOTA is a good starting base, but one must make adjustments over this base.

by oxforddave on Feb 5, 2008 1:49 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
There isn't really any doubt.  Pitchers do have groundball tendencies, and groundballs yield far more outs than other balls in play.  ERA accounts for groundball induction but also has a huge random element.  FIP throws out the randomness but also throws out the groundball induction.  Neither one really gets it right for extreme groundballers.

by Jay on Feb 5, 2008 10:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Also!  Not all extreme groundballers are hard throwers.  Carmona has the power sinker, like Kevin Brown, but Westbrook is a bit more of a movement/control artist, like Kevin Brown.

by Jay on Feb 5, 2008 10:39 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
I like the sound of this Kevin Brown character.  We should try to get our hands on him.
Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Feb 5, 2008 11:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Is there any way we can sign Kevin Brown then trade his back to the Tigers?

by gte619n on Feb 6, 2008 8:00 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Kevin Brown isn't old enough to pitch for the Tigers.
Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Feb 6, 2008 10:26 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
part of the situation is that we haven't seen enough  groundball pitchers to make great comparisons, which is what PECOTA needs. i only have the last 4 years right now, but there were 62 player-seasons over that stretch with a GB% over 50. 17 over 60%. Carmona was 64% this year. So we may just not have enough data yet to get a good estimate at what Jay is asking for. Going back to 2000, guys that got that many groundballs are the already mentioned brown, halladay, webb, wang, lowe, and hudson. So while Carmona is likely to regress, it's more likely do to the fact that he was second in ERA last year, and all pitchers up there are more likely to regress than improve.

by 7foot3 on Feb 6, 2008 12:17 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Carmona's GB% is likely to regress below what he did last year. I looked this up during the end of the season, but the over 60% mark isn't typically maintained from year to year. Oddly enough, Westbrook had 3 yrs of succesfully doing it though, and is the only pitcher to do that in the past 4 yrs. In the AL no other pitcher did it more than once (with the exception of Westbrook of course). Wang came close. But, the point is statistically speaking you should project Carmona's GB% to be lower and thereby, his ERA or FIP or whatever will be higher.

I, on the other hand, agree with Jay and others that his Carmona's projectability is likely heavily variant, especially due to his improvement in K/9 during the second half of the season, and subjectively looking at his sinker as a pitch that not many pitchers have the ability to match in velocity and vertical movement. Also, if you look past FIP or DIPS, and talk about actual performance (ERA or RA) he is more dependent on his defense than most other pitchers (due to the GB% and k/9) and Asdrubal at 2B for the whole year, plus Marte overtaking at 3B would be an improvement on last years defense.

by hans on Feb 6, 2008 2:19 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
FYI, Fausto's K/9:
APR: 3.12
MAY: 3.50
JUN: 6.62
JLY: 7.46
AUG: 6.00
SEP: 6.94
OCT: 5.14

PRE: 5.13
POS: 6.39

Also, there seems to be a bit of contreversy brewing over his middle name. Wikipedia says it starts with a 'J', while the RedSox-Yankees Man Love Association of Connecticut says it starts with a 'C'.

by gte619n on Feb 6, 2008 8:05 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Dude, did you watch the Valpo game on RSYMLAC2 last night?

by NickFantana on Feb 6, 2008 9:15 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Lowe and Webb have both gone 4 straight years over 60%. Wang and Hudson are right there. These also happen to be the pitchers who throw something similar to carmona's sinker. groundball percentage has one of the highest, if not the highest, year to year correlation among pitching stats. So while we may see it creep down towards 55%, i don't think were going to see it drop enough to make a huge difference in his ERA.

by 7foot3 on Feb 6, 2008 11:45 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
I think we are actually agreeing here. I didn't mention the NL guys because its the NL. Pitching over there and over here in the AL is different (easier in the NL with pitchers hitting). Its not likely will be as good at inducing ground balls, its simple statistical regression that supports this, but I do agree he won't likely drop below 55%.

by hans on Feb 6, 2008 7:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Again, raining on parades I am...

Fausto's pre- and post- all star splits are not drastic enough, in my opnion, for us to say that it should matter.  Yes, he struck out a few more guys post, but he also allowed disproportionately less hits (favorably so, or luckily so).  I think his true talent level is somewhere between the two halves as a result.

We also have fantastic blinders on if we are mentioning his 2nd half performance and pretending like his 15 IP, 11 BB, 12 K, 7.20 ERA postseason didn't happen.

by Thommy on Feb 6, 2008 10:25 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Stand by for the small sample size onslaught.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 6, 2008 10:31 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Normally a solid argument, but the two Very Bad games he pitched in the first half - on April 13th (4.1 IP, 6 ER) and June 27th (1 IP, 8 ER) - are also small sample sizes, that probably alone construct the argument for his first half v. second half splits (he had no such bad starts in the 2nd half).  Sure, the competition is tougher in the postseason, but there is nothing different enough to call consecutive 2 and 4 IP starts outliers.

Granted, it was the end of the season, and he had thrown more than he ever has before - I'm not knocking him.  I'm just pointing out that we've kindly pretended that his horrible post-season didn't happen.

by Thommy on Feb 6, 2008 10:44 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
He was out of gas.  His injury risk this year concerns me to be honest.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Feb 6, 2008 11:35 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Thommy, a 23-year-old pitcher is not only still learning but still physically maturing in many cases.  You typically don't see a rise in pure stuff much beyond age 23, but at 21-23, you do see that, and it can translate to higher K rates.

Thus, I think it's significant that his K rate more than double over the last four months what it was for the first two.

In the postseason, he got mugged by the Red Sox twice but only after totally dominating the Yankees -- and breaking all his own personal highs in IP.  I will in fact totally ignore that.

by Jay on Feb 6, 2008 11:44 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
i still think (homer alert) that he was getting squeezed by the umps in those games, too.

by Brick. on Feb 6, 2008 11:53 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Oh, no doubt.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Feb 6, 2008 12:10 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Dana Demuth.  Remember the name.  I have.
Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Feb 6, 2008 1:13 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Your argument about the first two vs. last four months is a good one - straight pre/post K/9 is 5.1 vs. 6.3, which is nice, but not as nice as the first 2 vs last 4 as you note.  Obviously, this increase in K rate is huge, esp. considering he more or less moved up a level when it happened. He was hit lucky in the second half, though, which should be remembered when thinking about that shiny 2.26 ERA.

I'm otherwise with you, I'm sure we read much if not all the same stuff re: stuff, maturity, and what not.  It is in my nature, however, to counterpoint very strong optimism (fausto) or pessimism (jhonny).

As for ignoring his post-season, I can within the context of the season, but can't (completely) disregard it because his year-year improvement in this area likely won't be complete.  For that reason (in terms of discussing his projection for next year), I factor it in.

by Thommy on Feb 6, 2008 12:30 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
with the caveat that i'm not making an excuse for carmona, and that this is only one of his games, but a good deal of those numbers came when dana demuth was determining the strike zone. demuth just happens to have maybe the worst strike zone for carmona's sinker

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-zone-of-their-own/

by 7foot3 on Feb 6, 2008 11:51 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
That article made me curious.  Besides Game 6 of the ALCS, the other Carmona blow up was the Oakland game when Gerry Davis (#1 Small Zone) was behind the plate.

I'm sure there were other games where Carmona faired just fine with a small zone ump behind the plate, but I find this interesting nonetheless.

by dvd1204 on Feb 6, 2008 1:54 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Hey Dave can you explaing this "throwing heavy" thing?  What, he can make the ball heavier?  Now that's a talent!
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 6, 2008 11:48 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Paragraph 4 made me giggle. I believe PECOTA had the same prediction last year for Alyssa Milano's future with the Dodgers.

by supermarioelia on Feb 5, 2008 12:16 AM EST   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
It gave her only 28 dongs?

I don't even know what that means.

by Jay on Feb 5, 2008 1:21 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
I don't either but it seems excessive for a woman.
I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Feb 5, 2008 1:49 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Fun fact: Rafael Perez's #3 comp is Paul Assenmacher.

I spent a bit going through the numbers, and here's what I got:

It cements Garko as a productive hitter in the middle of the lineup.  Maybe it's just me, but I don't think we've appreciated his 2007 numbers enough.

It's got Dellucci as being a very productive hitter, although only over 156 ABs.  His total value is low as a result, but I certainly hope his number of PAs will be 300 or so, moving him into the realm of being a very nice guy to have on your team. Chalk that up as a reason for optimism for 2008.

It reinforces my belief that Franklin is about the most interesting player on our offensive roster. I'm not sure it is going to be this year (2009 is more likely), but his ISO makes me think he's going to click before too long and be...I don't know...a lite Richie Sexson-type hitter?

It doesn't love Astro so much, either offensively or defensively, I think.  His total value is a reflection of the poor quality and quantity of 2B, and him just not being too bad at anything.  Mind you, this is only for next year, but the future is likely still bright.

FWIW, I'm in on the Laffey love.  I think he is a LH Westbrook, but with the eventual upside of a higher strikeout pitcher.  PECOTA isn't real strong on incorporating a single, previous season breakout for a pitcher.  I think even keeping his head above water this year would lead to a pretty drastic change in his PECOTA next year.

It call for a yawner of a year for Choo, Kobayashi, and Michaels, the former two of which I think may be overly harsh.

by Thommy on Feb 5, 2008 12:27 AM EST   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
Yeah, looking again, Asdrubal doesn't profile as hitting that well, but derives most of his value by playing what BP sees as an average 2B. PECOTA gives him lots of upside due to his age.

I just don't get their defensive metrics. How can Peralta be an above average SS, and Asdrubal be an average 2B? They also have Miguel Cabrera as an above average 3B, and that is even worse than Peralta. They have to fix those metrics.

by oxforddave on Feb 5, 2008 1:41 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: PECOTA and the tribe
So whatta think of Borowski?
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 5, 2008 1:00 AM EST   0 recs

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