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PECOTA and the tribe

The PECOTA predictions from Baseball Prospectus are out. Here are my few takes on where the computer regressions may differ from conventional wisdom on key tribe members.

Hitters

PECOTA says that Jhonny Peralta is the 2nd best position player on the tribe in terms of WARP for 2008 and has the 2nd best career upside. It has always liked Jhonny partially because the skewed defensive metrics BP has. Still, Jhonny deserves much more love than he usually gets.

PECOTA loves Asdrubal Cabrera. For prospects it likes Carlos Rivero. Grady still has Barry Bonds as his #2 comparable.

PECOTA gives Hafner only 28 dongs. Ouch.

Predicts Andy Marte to be 50 OPS points less than Casey in 2008. Doesn't think much of Marte or Barfield (both with OBPs sub .310).

Pitchers

CC is in the top 5 pitchers, but gives CC a much higher attrition rate (14%) than the other top guys (Santana 3%, Peavy/Webb 8%). Something to think about when talking long term deals. Take this with a grain of salt as PECOTA has a hard time finding comparables for CC.

PECOTA loves Laffey. Basically says he is equal to Westbrook already in 2008.

PECOTA is not high on Carmona; it still thinks he is good, but expects a decent drop off. Only a top 30 pitcher in the majors, not top 10. Maybe it is the innings jump which it doesn't like (which would be reasonable). Laffey, Carmona, and Westbrook all have very high ground ball rates. Infield defense will be very important.

PECOTA hates on Sowers and Byrd. It doesn't like pitchers with what it considers no stuff.

Anyway, these are my takes on the numbers. It will be interesting how things shake out.

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