Bedard to Mariners finally official

Hey everybody!  Look!

Edgar just referred to He Who Shall Not Be Named in a dismissive way!!!

Blanket statements with no evidence is just plain silly.

You said in a previous thread that you thought Adam Jones was overrated.  I asked for your justification, you provided none.  I would like to hear what specifically you don't like about him, other than he has no prolonged experience at the major leauge level.  I like the fact that he has continued to improve as he has progressed through the minors and that he can play center field.

You neglect to mention that Bedard does not come without question marks as well.  I like Bedard, but his durability remains in question.  Zero season over 200 innings pitched.  On the plus side, he has shown continued improvement in his performance over the past few seasons.

Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez.

"You keep using that word.  I do not think it means what you think it means."

There's nothing revisionist about calling the Eduardo-Asdrubal swap a steal.  It was clear right from the first day.  I mean, just a few months ago, a bunch of guys were on Baseball Tonight marvelling about what a steal it was -- including Eduardo himself.

It's hard to imagine something less valuable than an aging first baseman who can only hit lefties and is two months from free agency or retirement.  Eduardo should have yielded something along the lines of Shawn Nottingham, not a guy who will probably be an everyday player for us for six-plus years under contract.

Is the big P word payroll? Because that is probably why Seattle isn't the worst team in the league.

Excuse us, they are just one of the worst teams in baseball and a perennial also ran. Haven't made the playoffs since 2001, haven't had a winning record since 2004.

2006- The Asdrubal trade, Acquired LHP Horacio Ramirez from the Braves for RHP Rafael Soriano.

2007- Signed RHP Carlos Silva to a four-year contract with a mutual option for 2012. Signed RHP Jeff Weaver to a one-year contract. Traded away Yorman Bazardo. Sent RHP Gregorio Rosario to the Cleveland Indians.

And that is just from flipping through two years. Not exactly resume material.

I know it's ancient history, but Felix Fermin for Omar wasn't exactly a great deal for the Mariners.

"for a outfielder with the big P word"

it just happened to be this exact trade that someone did a study on that big P word.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/story/2008/1/11/18858/7669

to sum it up: "Adam Jones is a prospect whose chances of going on to substantial, sustained Major League success are every bit as good, if not better, than those of guys who've already broken in. Talented minor leaguers have flamed out before. Who cares? So have talented Major Leaguers"

You have to think Felix will step it up big time at some point though

I actually love Shapiro's style.  He's seeking low-risk assets, and like you said, if only a few work out, they pay for a lot of flops.  There are benefits to this approach that don't materialize in the player signed. Shapiro develops a great relationship between the organization and players in the league - an important advantage.  Also, the importance of competition and mentoring in spring-training is big - its like a pressure at-bat  in that statistics cannot fully account for the effects.    

When I said the M's look decent, I'm not saying that I'm afraid of the expected or most likely scenario.  I'm just saying, we only beat them 4-3 on the season last year, however much better we were statistically.  Dontrelle Willis totally shut us down when we played him.  The Devil Rays gave the Yankees fits for years.  The Giants beat the Patriots.  

I'm not analyzing them, I'm just saying that youth combined with a few stars and a little experience can breed confidence, which can lead to streaky play (see 2007 Mariners) above or below a given talent level.  Its true, though, that Bedard may simply balance the loss of Guillen, Sherril, and Jones, and that they don't get any better at all.  

Finally, I don't think solid contact and finding a hole is luckier than getting a walk, which is heavily influenced by the situation.  Safeco is huge, AND the M's didn't have a lot of power - why would any pitcher pitch around them?  The batters know it and are going to be aggressive.

Ditto on Jones.

I think Ichiro is a pretty good pick to have a serious down year in 2008.  He's 34 now, and while he should age relatively gracefully, he's certainly not in his prime anymore, and his speed has got to be declining.

His ISO has plummeted from .133 to .094 to .080 over the past three seasons, and the only thing that kept his numbers up at a solid level was -- you guessed it -- a ridiculous BABIP of .389.  Ichiro has done even better than that in the past -- .399 in 2004 -- but he was 30 then and 33 last season.

His career BABIP is .357, far above the norm of around .310, but I think it's unrealistic to expect him to be much above .350 next season unless he gets exceptionally lucky.  So what happens if you take Ichiro's 2007 numbers and run them through a .350 BABIP?  .317/.362/.397 ... an OPS of 759, which is just a little above league average.  That is about what I expect out of him this season.

Too bad they already traded Adam Jones.