Season Predictions Warmup

Tribe wins 92 and just gets by the Tigers.  

THIS IS THE YEAR! WORLD SERIES WIN OVER THE METS IN 6!

Whew - I'm exhausted from the warm-up.  What'll I do for the real predictions thread.

1. Marte is actually good
   
2. It snows in April, but there are no cancellations
   
3. LGT starts an online fight with a different blog than Lookout Landing
   

4. Grady Sizemore finishes top 3 in MVP voting(would like to predict MVP, but don't trust MVP voters)
   
5. Really liked Adam's prediction on Byrd
   
6. Fausto doesn;t have quite the same numbers as last year, but it still awesome

1. Laffey joins the rotation at some point, furthering our groundball goodness.
   
2. Grady has an MVP type year, and I start drinking 40's of PBR after every jack to celebrate his surprising run towards 40 home runs.
   
3. Gutz is not as good as we think. (Then again, I recall a thread over the off-season with our respective predictions for him and they were less than wonderful).
   
4. Hafner returns to pre 07-form.
   
5. Barfield doesn't up his walk rate, nears bust territory.
   
6. Marte does up his walk rate, and is the answer at 3B.
   
7. Some young kids (Stevens, Miller?) emerge and become a force in the pen by July.

1.  Agreed on Gutierrez

2.  Wedge doesn't play Marte consistently enough for anyone to get a read on him.

3.  Dellucci hits around .250, but they play him anyway.

4.  Fultz is gone by mid-season.

5.  Midges attempt to eat JoBo, but are unsuccessful.  He remains the Indians closer.

Marte rots on the bench.

MLB rules that Casey Blake's beard is sentient enough to warrant its own roster spot, forcing the Tribe to trade Dellucci to the Mets for a bag of balls and a case of Mountain Dew.  Later in the season, Casey's beard skips town with Travis Hafner's camouflage pants and is never seen again.

1. Grady will have a MVP season (e.g. .330 BA, 35 HRs, 140 R), but he will not get the MVP as he will not have enough RBIs, and he plays for a Cleveland team.

2. Marte will be traded for his true value (peanuts) before June.

Garko will be traded.

Borkowski gets hurt, and Jensen Lewis assumes closing duties.

1. Lee is traded for a decent but not great A ball pitcher, probably to Texas or Baltimore, within the first two months of the season.
   
2. Laffey takes the ball every fifth day and will sport a 4.3 ERA by the end of the year.
   
3. Sowers turns into a strong #3 pitcher (at Buffalo).
   

I think Dellucci + Michaels will settle in around .350/.440.  Francisco will put up similar numbers in Buffalo, and the situation will generate 10,000 comments here.

Miller goes into the pen by June and stays there for the whole year.

Sowers is done.  Smith + Lofgren win more games (let's say...11) for the big club in 2008 than Sowers + Lee.

Weglarz is a top 15 prospect in the game by the end of the year.

Marte and Kelly both barely top an OBP of .300, and we have no hitters recording over 80 ABs at less than .300.

Marte is at .310/.460, gets 350 ABs, and is in line for the full time job next year.

And absolutely put me down for 200 HRs.

Barfield is traded for a low minors pitcher.

Kelvin Diaz rips up the low minors, with a 20% chance that he's 25.  

The organization develops a glut of good hitting, poor fielding 2b-SS-3b.

The Tribe spends roughly 50% above its draft slot for its first round pick.

Sowers doesn't pitch in the majors at all.  Laffey does, with success.

Gutierrez becomes a fan favorite with a 20/20/20 season.  The last 20 is his assist total.

Fernando Cabrera returns to the organization, and pitches in September.

We trade for a closer in July.

Casey Blake is injured nearly all year.

The Francisco / Dellucci platoon is very effective.  Michaels is traded to an NL club for two players we've never heard of.

We win over 100 games.

Peralta hits .280 with 23 HR, and an 825 OPS.

CC finishes at 17-9, 3.41.

Asdrubal and Franklin disappoint slightly, but are not disastrous - 730 and 780 OPS respectively.

Mujica plagarizes Jensen Lewis' 2007, saving us from the chain reaction in the bullpen started by Borowski's meltdown and a month-long injury absence from Betancourt.

Michaels and Dellucci are solid, although Dellucci's d will leave something to be desired.

Hafner doesn't make a full rebound, but is much better than last year.

Raffy Perez struggles.

The new uniforms are a hit, but the Prog doesn't catch on until next season.  Broadcast slipups are comically regular.    

I'll be more specific with Marte:  .252/.327/.450/.777, but with 25 errors

Let's take this up a notch,

Garko:  .240/.340/.520, has a puzzling 3 true outcomes season.  Some people regret that the old Garko has gone.  Others, counting me, are rather pleased.

Asdrubal is Baergaesque: .310/.360/.400

Hafner is excelent early (10 HRs in April), and then fades.  He changes his approach to increase power, and his walk rate takes dive.  .275 / .335 / .515

Victor remains Victor.  Fausto is nearly as good this year as he was last, and his strikeouts increase to 7 / 9.  Sabathia, on the other hand, suffers a down year.

Lineup is comparable to Detroit, and our pitching proves to be vastly superior.  Detroit really has a crappy year, but still finishes 2nd in a lackluster division.  Nothing goes right for the Twins.  The Royals are surprisingly OK, while the White Sox are the worst team in baseball.  We beat the crap out of our division and win over 100 games.

I totally agree with APV.  Byrd goes kaput early on.      

1. Cliff Lee is not on the roster come May.
   
2. Hafner has a season in between 2006 and 2007.  (closer to 2006 by maybe a 65/35 margin)
   
3. Marte continues to suck
   
4. Barfield improves some.  (NOT to his Padre #s)
   
5. Laffey replaces Lee
   
6. Fultz gone before the all-star break
   
7. Sizemore puts up career-high numbers
   
8. Gutierrez...  ummm... is good. (specific, I know.)

1. Grady has a 30/30 year, with a definite chance for 35/35 with a 925 OPS.

2. Vic inches down a little, .290, 20 HR, 850 OPS

3. Gutz hits .285 with a 20/20 year.

4. Hafner makes it back, but not quite to his 2006 levels .... 950 OPS

5. Marte hits .250 with 10 bombs, 20 errors, takes over at 3B full-time by June.

6. Carmona regresses a tad, 3.35 ERA but actually gets 20 Wins.

7. CC also regresses a little, 3.50, 17 Wins

8. JoBo's arm gives out, Masa takes over in July with Adam Miller becoming our Joba this August

9. Scott Lewis is this year's Laffey

10. Joe Ness is the breakout reliever in the minors this year.

1. Jake Westbrook wins 18+ games with an ERA sub-3.50.

2. Fausto is not as good as last year, but is a better than league-average pitcher.  

3. Gutz continues his Alex Rios track, going 290/360/520

4. The bullpen becomes a major worry spot when Betancourt and Perez regress, Lewis ends up back in Buffalo, and Masa becomes the primary 7th inning guy over Perez.  This forces Shapiro to make a deadline trade for Huston Street.

1.  No deadline trade for us, even though we're heavily featured in the rumors.

2.  Fausto regresses fairly seriously and then wins at least 2 playoff starts.

3.  Betencourt and Perez regress to simply above-average, Masa is mixed in as a regular set-up guy, and Lewis ends up closing.

4.  Cliff Lee is our 5th starter all year and goes 8-9.

Fausto regresses due to struggles pitching to both sides of the plate.

Grady makes a huge leap forward in power and average.

Hafner hits like the Haf of old, over 1.000 OPS

Vic remains Vic:  .300/370/500

Gutz goes 20/20, but OBPs around .320

Borowski is relegated to middle relief, Betancourt takes over.

Lewis remains in middle relief.

Perez is dominant.

The Carthaginian plays just well enough to hold off Barfield.

Marte hits for enough power to play almost every day, sending Blake to the outfield, where he pushes Michaels to being traded for a PTBNL/released.

1. Franklin produces at a slightly greater rate than last year. His OBP shows enough of a rise to be encouraging but not enough to cause sunlight to break through clouds and loud trumpets to play.

2. Carmona regresses a little bit but remains one of the top 10 starters in the AL.

3. Barfield hits well enough and Asdrubal hits poorly enough to ignite a massive second base debate on LGT.

4. Marte struggles in April but finally achieves mediocrity by Memorial Day.

5. Perez and Lewis both regress with Lewis earning a trip back to Buffalo. Masa becomes a key cog in a still stellar bullpen.

6. Garko is involved in hundreds of rumours but ends up finishing the season in Cleveland.

IF the Indians are dumb enough to trade Michaels, he turns out to be a steal for whomever gets him.

1.  Tigers bullpen is  disaster.  (Note: This has already happened.)

2. Verlander is an ace.  Bonderman (inconsistency), Robertson (mediocrity), and Willis (who knows?) post ERAs of 4.50++ (generously).

3. The only Tigers who regress significantly offensively are: Ordonez, Polanco, Granderson, Renteria.

4. Sheffield, Pudge, Ordonez, and The Gambler combine for a full season (minimum) on the DL.

5. Jim Leyland shows no indication, on or off the field, that he has ever found any joy whatsoever in the game of baseball. (Note: This has already happened.)

6. Four-way battle for second.

7.  Indians, you say?  Doesn't matter.  Like the 90s.  Playin' for the seed.

1. Sizemore hits 30 bombs, with a BA of at least .290 and an OBP of .400+.

2. Gutierrez has an OBP of about .325. But he hits around .270, with 25 HRs, 30+ doubles and 8-10 triples.

3. An injury makes room for Choo, who plays well. Delucci, no longer needed, is traded.

4. Marte is traded, after hitting .240 in 150-200 plate appearances, and still committing too many errors/mental mistakes at third.

5. Martinez hits 20-24 homers. His batting average is about 10 points higher than last year's.

6. Garko hits 20 homers.

7. Hafner improves, but not to his '06 level-say, .288 with 32 homers.

8. Asdrubal Cabrera has a two-homer game in the first month. For the year, he hits 12-15, with an above-average BA and OBP. He stays at the 2-hole in the lineup.

9. Carmona defies the doubters/worriers, staying healthy and dominant. The Tribe still has the top 1-2 punch in the majors.

10. Lee and Byrd are OK, with solid numbers for back-end starters. Byrd is traded in June, and Buffalo's hottest starter is promoted.

11. Borowski still works his high-wire act. This time he manages to keep his ERA under 5.00.

12. Kobayashi is a success. The bullpen is deep and dominant, although Betancourt's ERA rises by about a run.

12. Trevor Crowe, Ben Francisco, Michael Aubrey, and Jordan Brown have big seasons in Buffalo. Apparently, Aubrey was allergic to Akron. That explains his injuries. :)

13. Akinori Iwamura is acquired for a package that includes Josh Barfield, who was solid in Buffalo, but didn't quite have the discipline the Indians wanted to see.