Season Predictions: DIVISION WINNERS & WILD CARDS
by crazymoloh
on Mar 26, 2008 4:13 PM EDT
With the season underway, a lot of the talking heads have started issuing their predictions for the 2008 season. Today ESPN unveiled their expert picks, and Steve Phillips' picks especially gave me a lot of reason to hope. He picked the Detroit Tigers to win the AL Central! From "Cliff Lee is the best left handed pitcher in baseball" to "Detroit is the team to beat in 2007", Steve Phillips has been on the wrong side of quite a few pre-season assessments. While I can't figure out if Steve Phillips acts as a jinx, or if he is simply a terrible prognosticator, its clear that reality hates him. Further reassuring me is that Phillips' more astute colleagues(Olney and Law), picked Cleveland to repeat. Anyway, here's a look at what's out there in terms of picks....
Tom Verducci's Picks
ESPN Expert Picks
Here are my division winners and wildcards.......
AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Seattle Mariners
NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
AL Wild Card: Detroit Tigers (only because the AL East will be completely brutal)
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies
WHO DO YOU HAVE WINNING IN 2008?
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AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Indians (DUH!)
AL West: Angels
NL East: Mets
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Padres
AL Wild Card: Tiggers
NL Wild Card: Braves
by Nat on Mar 26, 2008 4:24 PM EDT 0 recs
Well, despite 20 minutes or so of Googleing, I couldn't find THT's review of the 2007 predictions, but if I remember them correctly, Phillips was the worst of the ESPN guys by an order of magnitude.
That's right, John Kruk was at least 10x more correct. John Kruk.
by gte619n on Mar 26, 2008 4:28 PM EDT 0 recs
Steve Phillips is like kryptonite to a team's chances. He got EVERY race wrong.
by crazymoloh on Mar 26, 2008 4:41 PM EDT 0 recs
How last year's prognosticators fared.....
Gammons:
Races predicted correctly: 2/8
Playoff teams predicted: 4/8
Kurkjian:
Races predicted correctly: 1/8
Playoff teams predicted: 4/8
Olney:
Races predicted correctly: 4/8
Playoff teams predicted: 5/8
Steve Phillips:
Races predicted correctly: 0/8
Playoff teams predicted: 2/8
Jason Stark:
Races predicted correctly: 2/8
Playoff teams predicted: 4/8
by crazymoloh on
Mar 26, 2008 4:47 PM EDT
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Phillips
Steve Phillips is the one that said , in response to somone saying that CC is one of the best left handers in baseball, "CC Sabathia is not even the best lefthander on the Indinas staff. " Enough said.
by hateyankees on
Mar 28, 2008 12:33 PM EDT
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no, harold reynolds said that to steve phillips after steve phillips spewed that nonsense.
by Brick. on
Mar 28, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
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brick, hateyankees is right here. He's calling Phillips out, not defending him. Though, what actually happened is Phillips said "Cliff Lee is one of the best left handers in baseball" and the retort was that he wasn't even the best lefty on his team.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on
Mar 28, 2008 1:08 PM EDT
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no i'm thoroughly confused. safe to say, we all know what happened. i just wanted to make sure everyone knew phillips was an idiot.
by Brick. on
Mar 28, 2008 1:13 PM EDT
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Wait - wait - I just realized something. We're actually looking at track records to evaluate predictors/prediction methods. How inventive!
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
by mauichuck on
Mar 28, 2008 12:42 PM EDT
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best prediction ever
Stark:
Tigers: 92-70, 1st in AL Central
Indians: 93-69, 2nd in AL Central
by 7foot3 on Mar 26, 2008 5:18 PM EDT 0 recs
AL Winners - Boston, Cleveland, California, Seattle (WC).
NL Winners - Philly, Chicago, Colorado, Arizona (WC).
Il faut d'abord durer.
by CU Adam on Mar 26, 2008 5:23 PM EDT 0 recs
Of course Phillips is a terrible prognosticator (or just an idiot). He traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano and Bartolome Fortunato, and hasn't had a real job in baseball since.
"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.
by Harry Doyle on Mar 26, 2008 5:31 PM EDT 0 recs
actually, wasn't that the other guy. and phillips big gaffe was mo vaughn? or was it the other way around. i can't even remember anymore.
by Brick. on
Mar 26, 2008 5:34 PM EDT
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If I recall correctly from the debates that have gone on here, Phillips was not actually the one responsible for the Kazmir debacle. I believe that was Jim Duquette
by Roger Dorn on
Mar 26, 2008 5:34 PM EDT
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As much as I wanted that to be the truth, I think that happened before he was the Mets GM. It's extremely disappointingly, I know.
Jim Duquette made that trade.
by gte619n on
Mar 26, 2008 5:36 PM EDT
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Umm..... I love ripping on Steve as much as the next guy, but I actually think he was decent GM. More importantly, JIM DUQUETTE traded Kazmir for Victor Zambrano, NOT Steve Phillips.
p.s: Its worth noting that much of Mets' young talent was developed under Phillips' reign, including Kazmir (who he drafted).
by crazymoloh on
Mar 26, 2008 5:36 PM EDT
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I mean, I wouldn't go that far. Sure, Duquette is to blame for Kazmir, but I think it's really important to remember that Phillips is, was, and always will be, an idiot.
by gte619n on
Mar 26, 2008 5:37 PM EDT
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He comes off as an idiot on TV, I agree. Hence my penchant for ripping him. Also, he's complete slut (like every other former player on ESPN's payroll). That said, under him the Mets drafted and developed four high ceiling prospects/players - David Wright, Jose Reyes, Scott Kazmir and Lastings Milledge. He wasn't one to cough up 5-star talent to make a few waves.
by crazymoloh on
Mar 26, 2008 5:42 PM EDT
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not this again - giving sole credit and/or blame on drafting and/or developing talent to the GM....
by Brick. on
Mar 26, 2008 5:45 PM EDT
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Fine. But lets not obscure the point, which is that he wasn't the disaster that people make him out to be. Regardless of who is most directly responsible for the Mets' player development, Phillips atleast had the good sense to hire/retain the scouting department that made those calls. During Phillips' tenure the Mets averaged 87 wins a season, which isn't exactly horrendous.
by crazymoloh on
Mar 26, 2008 5:55 PM EDT
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I think Phillips' tenure fairly can be called a disaster, given the resources at his disposal.
by Jay on
Mar 27, 2008 2:41 PM EDT
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Wow - pretty brutal wikipedia entry outline:
1. Early Life
2. New York Mets
2.1 Harassment Allegations
3. Broadcasting career
by steincat on
Mar 26, 2008 6:13 PM EDT
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You would think with the new instaneous updating system four people wouldn't have made the same correction to your quote Harry. You would think that.
By the way, I think it was Jim Duquette that actually made the trade.
by NickFantana on
Mar 26, 2008 5:50 PM EDT
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In my defense, I tied the original poster in TOP (time of post)
by Roger Dorn on
Mar 26, 2008 5:54 PM EDT
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You know, it just struck me that some guy name Jim Duquette made that trade...
... sorry for spewing mis-information. I was thinking of his acquiring Mo Vaughn.
"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.
by Harry Doyle on
Mar 26, 2008 6:24 PM EDT
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AL- Boston, Cleveland, LAA and NYY (WC)
NL- Atlanta, Chicago, Arizon, and LAN (WC).
by ClarkM on Mar 26, 2008 5:46 PM EDT 0 recs
NYT Article on the trade.....
Few organizations have been criticized so vehemently for a single move, and even fewer have reacted so drastically. Much of the Mets' progress in the past two seasons can be traced to the conference call in July 2004 when they decided to deal Kazmir. Approximately 10 club employees — scouts, coaches and executives — were on the line. A couple of vocal members endorsed the trade. No one raised a strong objection.
"We had too many cooks in the kitchen," said Jim Duquette, then the Mets' general manager, now the vice president for baseball operations of the Baltimore Orioles. "In that situation, if someone disagrees, he might not speak up. The loudest voices are the ones that get heard. It does become sort of like a mob mentality."
Two things stand out from that quote....
a) I'm never making fun of an MBA degree again. Clearly, too many idiots are put in charge of large enterprises.
b) Is it any wonder that Baltimore sucks? Baltimore seems be the training for future GMs who will ruin franchises.
p.s: $20 says Bill Bavasi goes to Baltimore after he's fired from the Mariners. The guy gave up Asdrubal/Choo/Soriano to acquire Broussard/Perez/Horacio. I know that's not as bad as the Kazmir deal, but he's sure trying to catch up with multiple shitty deals.
by crazymoloh on Mar 26, 2008 5:48 PM EDT 0 recs
PROFANITY
aaaaaand this looks like a good time remind everyone about the Ground Rules ... which you all just agreed to in the last 18 hours.
We can stay away from profanity, really we can. And even in Game Threads, it shouldn't be used gratuitously, just because you can get away with it. We're lenient in Game Threads, recognizing that sometimes it more or less can't be helped. But in regular posts, in Game Threads and otherwise, it easily can be helped.
by Jay on
Mar 26, 2008 6:00 PM EDT
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My humble predictions:
AL East: Yankees (Toronto finishes 2nd)
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Mariners
AL WC: Tigers
NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Padres (Toughest division to call, Rocks come in 2nd)
NL WC: Reds
ALCS: Tribe vs. Mariners (Crazy, I know)
NLCS: Mets vs. Cubs
WS: Tribe vs. Cubs
Cubs win it all 4-3 - can't believe it, but yes - Tribe's pitching fails in games 4-7 again.
Now that the Bedard bandwagon has officially crashed into the Maritime Seas, solely the local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer."
by mjmarble on Mar 26, 2008 11:15 PM EDT 0 recs
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Angels
AL Wild Card: Red Sox
NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Atlanta
ALCS: Indians over Yankees 4-2
NLCS: Mets over Braves 4-1
WS: Indians over Mets 4-3 (beat Santana in Game 7, ESPN implodes).
I swear, next year is it.
by fwembt on Mar 27, 2008 12:28 AM EDT 0 recs
Here's my shot:
AL EAST- New York
AL CENTRAL- Cleveland
AL WEST- Seattle
AL WC- Detroit
NL EAST- New York
NL CENTRAL- Cincinnati
NL WEST- Los Angeles
NL WC- Arizona
Indians beat Yankees in ALCS, Hank Steinbrenner makes himself manger and GM, Yankees go 10-152 in 2009, CC has all 10 wins.
Series: Dodgers vs Indians (I can't predict this series, I'm scared that I would jinx us either way).
by DaytonDogg on Mar 27, 2008 1:47 AM EDT 0 recs
AL East: Boston
AL Central: Cleveland
AL West: Angels
AL Wild Card: New York
NL East: New York
NL Central: Milwaukee
NL West: Colorado
NL Wild Card: Atlanta
by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Mar 27, 2008 9:28 AM EDT 0 recs
AL East:_ Boston
AL Central:_ Your Cleveland Indians
AL West :_ LAofA
NL East:_ New York
NL Central:_ Milwaukee
NL West:_ Arizona
AL Wild Card : _ NY
NL Wild Card :_ San Diego
The Tribe will win it all.
Grady will be MVP.
by MTF on Mar 27, 2008 1:18 PM EDT 0 recs
AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Seattle Mariners
AL Wild Card: Toronto Blue Jays
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Milwaukee Brewers
by The DiaTriber on Mar 27, 2008 3:25 PM EDT 0 recs
Hey, we see eye to eye on the whole no Yankees in the postseason thing. Cheers.
by NickFantana on
Mar 27, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
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After reading your article on predictions for the season, I could have predicted those predictions.
Your piece was fantastic. I laughed till I cried.
"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.
by Harry Doyle on
Mar 27, 2008 4:45 PM EDT
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AL East - Sox
AL Central - (um, lemme see, there's this team in Cleveland that...)
AL West - Mariners
AL Wild Card - Blue Jays
NL East - Mets
NL Central - Cubbies
NL West - D'Backs
NL Wild Card - Dodgers
Yanks don't make the playoffs and Joe Torre does, take that Hank Steinbrenner.
"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.
by Harry Doyle on Mar 27, 2008 4:49 PM EDT 0 recs
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