We have a roster!
Before playing their final Florida Spring Training game, the Indians optioned Ben Francisco to Buffalo, effectively setting their Opening Day 25-man roster. Shin-Soo Choo still has to go on the DL, but other than that, the roster's locked in.
There were two mild surprises this spring: Aaron Fultz released in favor of Craig Breslow, and Jorge Julio making the team over Tom Mastny. And for a team left intact like the Indians, no big surprises are a good thing. Thus far there have been no injuries to major-league players, no collisions with sprinkler heads, no 100-mile taxi rides, and the only controversy was between Casey Blake and Travis Hafner's pet dog.
After all these non-stories, you might wonder what the Indians' roster looks like. Well, you can see the latest 40-man roster on the left sidebar (thank you, SBN 2.0), so I'll jump right to the 25-man roster:
Infielders (plus Pronk)
C Victor Martinez
1B Ryan Garko
2B Asdrubal Cabrera
SS Jhonny Peralta
3B Casey Blake
DH Travis Hafner
C Kelly Shoppach
IF Jamey Carroll
IF Andy Marte
Aside from the backups, no change from last year's configuration. The big question with this group concerns Marte: how often will Eric Wedge get him into games? Casey Blake's versatility will make it easier for Marte to get starts, for although Andy played first base this spring, his play there made Ryan Garko seem like a Gold Glover.
Otherwise, the playing time seems locked in. Carroll is the backup for Cabrera and Peralta, though I'd imagine he'd see most of his playing time at second, with Cabrera moving over to short on Jhonny's days off. Shoppach will catch every fifth day, with Victor Martinez playing first on most of those occasions. Of course, how well Garko (and, to some extent, Travis Hafner) hit will determine how many true days off Martinez will have.
Outfielders
RF Franklin Gutierrez
CF Grady Sizemore
LF David Dellucci
OF Jason Michaels
Dellucci's job is on the shakiest ground of any starting position player. Ben Francisco was sent down to Buffalo for no reason other than it was he who had an option. Shin-Soo Choo, who does not have an option, will be ready to play in a couple months. The Indians understand the meaning of a sunk cost, so if Dellucci isn't slugging .500 by the end of May, he'll be somewhere else.
I think Jason Michaels is pretty safe. Even though the Indians don't need a backup who can play center field (Gutierrez is probably better defensively than Sizemore there), he'd be useful with either Francisco or Choo starting in left.
Starting Rotation
LHP CC Sabathia
RHP Fausto Carmona
RHP Jake Westbrook
RHP Paul Byrd
LHP Cliff Lee
The only drama here was whether Cliff Lee could win back his starting job over a couple worthy contenders. And he did, pitching well enough to stay with the team. Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers provide the Indians excellent depth, so it isn't a given that Lee is off probation - remember, the Indians can still option him to Buffalo.
Aside from Lee, the main concern is how Fausto Carmona (and, to some extent, CC Sabathia) will fare after seeing a big uptick in innings pitched last season.
Bullpen
RHP Joe Borowski
RHP Rafael Betancourt
LHP Rafael Perez
RHP Jensen Lewis
RHP Masahide Kobayashi
LHP Craig Breslow
RHP Jorge Julio
Like last year, the Indians are going with all short relief. The Indians brought in Kobayashi to siphon off some innings from the Circle of Trust, as well as to guard against performance falloff from the COT. The Indians swapped out Fultz for Breslow, a classic example of how fungible matchup guys are. As Jay pointed out, Breslow gives the Indians more contractual upside, but he first has to get 2008 hitters before we can worry about when his arbitration cutoff will occur.
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Since you brought up the 40-man on the side, how long until all the pitchers have their numbers up? It's really bugging the heck out of me.
by Voltaire on Mar 28, 2008 12:46 AM EDT 0 recs
I don't know - I'd assume everything would be set by Opening Day. It's updated automatically, which means I can't manually add the numbers.
by Ryan on
Mar 28, 2008 12:49 AM EDT
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No problem. It's a ridiculous thing to be bothered by, anyway.
by Voltaire on
Mar 28, 2008 12:52 AM EDT
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Geez, Ryan ... I was only saying that we essentially get 2008 and then five one-year options on the guy, whereas for Fultz, it's just 2008.
by Jay on Mar 28, 2008 12:50 AM EDT 0 recs
I agree. I'm just saying that even if he works out, chances are he'll be off the roster in a couple years. It's the nature of matchup left-handers, always moving on to the next team.
by Ryan on
Mar 28, 2008 8:27 AM EDT
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You mentioned the same concern about Carmona in your THT 5 Questions article...but if I remember correctly someone brought up that Fausto's innings from 2006 were more than would initially appear...ringing a bell for anyone?
by supermarioelia on Mar 28, 2008 1:10 AM EDT 0 recs
I can't remember whether it was Arizona fall league or winter ball and have no idea where to even look for those stats...
by supermarioelia on
Mar 28, 2008 8:18 AM EDT
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Yeah, he pitched some innings in winter ball, and those innings may have helped him clear up some mechanical issues. This article mentioned at least six starts.
by Ryan on
Mar 28, 2008 8:33 AM EDT
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Thanks for finding that. Apparently our old friend Felix "El Gato" Fermin has been coaching that Aguilas squad since 2000.
It's amusing how difficult it is to find useful stats from the Caribbean leagues before this past winter...Aguilas ended up winning the Dominican title that winter, so I'm wondering how many more innings Fausto ended up getting in after that first playoff appearance of his. I know that his innings will still pale in comparison to his 2007 numbers, but an increase from say 150 to 230 might not be as jarring as 100 to 230. Again I'm ignoring spring innings, etc., but this is just a rough sketch.
by supermarioelia on
Mar 28, 2008 9:16 AM EDT
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With no small effort ... I found this player card with this all the way at the bottom:
Made 8 starts for Aguilas in the Dominican Winter League in November and December, going 1-1 with a 3.48ERA (31.0IP, 38H, 12ER, 5BB, 39K)...His 39 strikeouts were leading the league at the conclusion of his stint.
So that's 74.2 in the majors, 27.2 in Triple-A, and 31 IP in winter ball, total of 133.1 IP that season.
by Jay on
Mar 28, 2008 9:45 AM EDT
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although Andy played first base this spring, his play there made Ryan Garko seem like a Gold Glover.
... and his play at the hot corner made Aaron Boone look like a Gold Glover.
by JulioBernazard on Mar 28, 2008 10:17 AM EDT 0 recs
Biggest concerns and thoughts for the 2008 season
1. Will Hafner return to his old form of hitting over .300 with 35+ dingers or revert back to '07 ? Hafner is the one of the biggest keys in the lineup because if he doesn't perform then Victor won't get as much to hit, IMO.
2. Will Sabathia get distracted over his upcoming free agency and be able stay focused ? I know he terminated contract talks with the Tribe for this very reason but something tells me he's torn between staying with the only ballclub he's ever played for and jettisoning for more dollars.
3. Will Carmona's arm hold up after pitching 200+ innings last year ? Thankfully the Indians have starting depth in the minors with Sowers and Laffey, (and Elarton) should he see time on the DL.
4. Can the bullpen reproduce their success from last year ? I'm not confident that the addition of Breslow will make much of a difference over Fultz. I also wonder if Lewis will be able to duplicate his late season success from last year. He was a real key coming down the stretch as Wedge went to him almost exclusively in the 7th inning last year.
General thoughts ...
Asdrubal Cabrera is the real deal. He fields most everything hit at him and handles the bat very well. Watching him play and how he handles himself you don't see a 22 year old kid; he plays like a seasoned veteran. He's also got more power than many realize. I think he could hit 14-18 HRs and produce 75+ RBI from the two hole.
Franklin Gutierrez will establish himself as a legitimate full-time player this year. He is without doubt the best defensive OF on the club with his arm strength and seems to be gaining confidence at the plate.
The signing of Dellucci will turn out to be a disappointment as he'll spend more time on the DL this year. He seems to be one of those guys who is always getting dinged. Look for Ben Francisco and possibly even Tyner (yikes) seeing possibly significant time with the Tribe this year.
by SpringTrainingFun on Mar 28, 2008 10:20 AM EDT 0 recs
exciting
exciting
exciting
I'm about done with Jorge Julio already. Brick nailed it-Fernando Cabrera syndrome.
by afh4 on Mar 28, 2008 10:23 AM EDT 0 recs
Like last year, the Indians are going with all short relief.
I love how the quality of our starting pitching makes this possible.
by Brick. on Mar 28, 2008 10:41 AM EDT 0 recs
I've got a general question about this - don't we have LOTS of long relief? Rafael Perez started in AAA last year; Rafael Betancourt used to be our long man before he became really good. Let's say a pitcher goes down during warm-ups. Who do we have make the emergency start?
by Voltaire on
Mar 28, 2008 10:48 AM EDT
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Lewis? Provided he hasn't pitched the day or 2 beforehand?
Formerly known as "tribefan stuck in boston"
by BostonWahoo on
Mar 28, 2008 10:54 AM EDT
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Support for this: in 06 Lewis started 27 games between kinston and Akron, poste a sub-4.00 ERA, and went nearly 150 IP. He's good for a spot start in an emergency, even if he hasn't been tossed in like that recently.
Formerly known as "tribefan stuck in boston"
by BostonWahoo on
Mar 28, 2008 10:59 AM EDT
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All the more reason to either maybe put Elarton on the 25 man roster or move the AAA franchise to Columbus. I don't see anyone in the bully who has starting experience.
by SpringTrainingFun on
Mar 28, 2008 10:54 AM EDT
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I generally am not a fan of constructing a roster around a potential disaster scenario that doesn't happen all that often. If a starter goes down in warmups, you just pray for the best that game
by Roger Dorn on
Mar 28, 2008 11:00 AM EDT
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That's something I've been wondering since the beginning of last year.
by painaxl on
Mar 28, 2008 10:54 AM EDT
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everyone pitches two, even three - and you pray it doesn't go into extras. keep casey blake at the ready just in case.
by Brick. on
Mar 28, 2008 10:58 AM EDT
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Super-sub!
Formerly known as "tribefan stuck in boston"
by BostonWahoo on
Mar 28, 2008 11:00 AM EDT
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I hope I'm wrong, but I'm already worried about Pronk. Starting the season in a slump is not what I had in mind.
by Sockalexis on Mar 28, 2008 11:30 AM EDT 0 recs
Wait, the first game happened already? Did we win?
by Roger Dorn on
Mar 28, 2008 1:33 PM EDT
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is it really going to take a .500 SLG from Dellucci for him to stick? I would say the projected 340/430-ish lines that PECOTA and Bill James expect would be good enough for him to stay in the lineup.
by 7foot3 on Mar 28, 2008 11:51 AM EDT 0 recs
I don't think that projection will be anywhere near what we we want out of the left-handed hitting part of our our LF platoon. If he doesn't post a .500 slg than Dellucci is pretty much no better than subbing in Franscisco and likely worse. He's not going to make up for the loss in OPS through OBP, he's been a slugger. We already got Micheals barely making a .800 OPS vs. RHP and overall below .800, we don't need the other side of the platoon doing the same thing. Thats not an effective platoon.
by hans on
Mar 28, 2008 3:08 PM EDT
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I don't think there's any basis to project Dellucci hitting RHP worse than Francisco, assuming both are healthy.
And why are we looking at Michaels OPS vs RHP?
by Jay on
Mar 28, 2008 3:29 PM EDT
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ah, nice catch. Should be "a .800 OPS vs LHP".
I agree that a healthy Dellucci should be putting up as good and probably better numbers than Fransisco would. A .770 OPS that 7foot3 is alluding too does not indicate that Dellucci is "healthy" to me considering he was posting .899 OPS in '06 and .880 OPS in '05 (in Philly and Texas respectively). Even given natural age regression, I don't think a .770 OPS is what we want out him. He needs to be the stronger offensive player in the platoon, because unlike Michaels his defense is certainly a minus.
by hans on
Mar 28, 2008 3:39 PM EDT
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Dellucci's career OPS is 790, so 770 isn't far off from what a natural age curve would expect out of him. Except for that whole Dellucci defying the age curve in 05 and 06 thing. And i fully agree that the expected 770 projection isn't what we want out of LF. MLB average for LF last year was 800. But Dellucci probably just has to put up a line that makes the FO go "while Francisco or Choo may have more upside, its not a great bet they'll going to outhit Dellucci". My completely off-the-cuff gut feeling is that 340/430-ish would be that line. And PECOTA/ZiPS/James seem to agree that a healthy Dellucci will hit just as well if not better than Francisco or Choo.
by 7foot3 on
Mar 28, 2008 7:09 PM EDT
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I don't think regular career path tracking is very helpful in this case. Due to injuries, Dellucci only got 927 PA total for his five peak-age seasons, ages 25-29, perhaps a third of what he might have gotten if healthy. Not only does that reduce the sample, it also likely hindered his development, dampening his peak but also delaying it. Most of all, the fact that he was injured so often means that his true ability may have been largely obscured in his numbers -- we don't know how hurt he was playing for how many of those 900 PA.
For all we know, a healthy Dellucci puts up 130-140 OPS+ seasons through his prime, then naturally declines to 125 OPS+ level at age 31-32, mirroring his actual age 31-32 numbers (with the small caveat that he hardly faced any LHP those season).
It isn't reasonable to assume that that's the case -- that he's a career-130 type of talent -- but my point is that his statistical record is so spotty, it isn't reasonable to assume much of anything.
by Jay on
Mar 28, 2008 8:24 PM EDT
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If there were no other options, then Dellucci posting a ~100 OPS+ would keep him on the ballclub. But because Ben Francisco is a phone call away, and the Indians have to put Shin-Soo Choo on the roster when he gets healthy, Dellucci's going to have to be productive, and the only way he's really productive is hitting against right-handers.
Note that I'm not that high on Francisco or Choo as a starter. I doubt either would out-hit Dellucci's pre-Indians averages. But they can certainly put up ~.750 OPS in 350-400 at-bats.
by Ryan on
Mar 29, 2008 11:04 AM EDT
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I agree for the most part, except that Dellucci doesn't have to put up a 500 SLG to outperform than 750-ish OPS that both of us think Francisco or Choo can put up. I guess it comes down to how much the FO thinks the bell curve of those two is to the right of that 750 mark. I think that Dellucci's on a short leash, but that a mostly-healthy Dellucci will outhit Francisco and Choo, keeping his spot on the roster.
by 7foot3 on
Mar 29, 2008 11:33 AM EDT
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I agree with you that a "mostly-healthy" Dellucci will likely out hit whatever we would get from Choo or Francisco. I'm looking forward to a healthy Dellucci, because his pre-injury numbers were very good and a regression to career norms between him and Hafner will go a long ways to giving us a better offense this year than last.
by hans on
Mar 29, 2008 1:54 PM EDT
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You touched on the central flaw in a lot of these complaints about Dellucci, which is that they all start with the assumption that he's going to suck.
The fact is, Dellucci has the best chance of busting out a 900 OPS vs RHP of any of these players, and his doing that is our best chance by far to get good productivity out of the LF position this season. And that ultimately is the name of the game here.
by Jay on
Mar 29, 2008 6:57 PM EDT
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I remain skeptical that the FO will let Choo force their hand into having to release someone. I understand that they want to wait and see what they have but I think the FO would be just as likely to deal an outfielder to make room for Choo as picking the worst performer and DFA'ing them.
by NickFantana on
Mar 29, 2008 12:05 PM EDT
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Don't be so sure. If they're faced with DFA-ing MIchaels or Choo, it isn't all that clear which one they choose -- and in part it will depend not just on how Michaels is doing, but also on how other righthanders (Gutierrez, Marte and Francisco) are performing, wherever they are.
One thing for sure is that whomever they choose to let go, that guy is gone forever, but that guy wasn't really being counted on anyway. If Michaels does well out of the two-hole, obviously that makes it tougher on them -- they in essence are giving him every chance to make it tough on them.
Letting Dellucci go would be tougher. If he's playing well, it will be tough for the Indians to justify trading him just so they don't lose a fringy prospect, age 27 and often injured, not expected to field well enough in CF or hit well enough in a corner to be much more than a role player. If he's not playing well, they're looking at eating some $6 million in salary for the second half of 2008 and all of 2009.
But in the right circumstance, I think they'd do that. Remember, the team is run by grownups, and they understand sunk cost.
by Jay on
Mar 29, 2008 7:02 PM EDT
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You're absolutely right, the organization has shown that very maturity recently by cutting ties with Fultz and not dying on that inconsequential hill.
How would you begin to assess the cost/benefit of trading one of these players before Choo returns to force their hand vs. hanging on to all of them and letting their hand be forced and choosing the "odd man out?"
As a (probably pointless) exercise:
If Choo comes back June 1, Michaels would have about 100 ABs (92 last year in April and May.) Dellucci would have about 150 (138 last year). Figure Gutz for 150-175, Marte for ~75 and Francisco for near 200 at Buffalo. That adds up to somewhere near 700 at-bats of data on the people potentially impacted by Choo coming back (I think you have to leave Blake out simply because I don't see him going anywhere, even if he were struggling.)
So, is ~700 AB of data > or < a low-level prospect you could bring back in a trade for Dellucci or Michaels? Additionally complicating matters, how do you value the potential that exists for both D and M to increase their trade value by playing well? Finally, where is the breaking point between "increasing trade value" and "forming an effective platoon we wouldn't think about dismantling."
One half of me wants to believe this is a quanitifiable valuation, as above. But, when I step back, my sense is that the organizational philosophy holds that if they wait and see where all relevant players end up by June 1, the odds favor an elegant resolution to this problem presenting itself. In the off chance it doesn't happen, then it's grown-up time.
Put the kids to bed, pour a glass of wine, turn on some Paul Simon, and start recognizing sunk costs.
by NickFantana on
Mar 30, 2008 12:02 PM EDT
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Later on you'll hafta explain to me how one adds the samples of discrete players to arrive at a statistically valid sample size. I musta slept through that lecture.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
by mauichuck on
Mar 30, 2008 1:11 PM EDT
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You don't. I wasn't trying to. Although it certainly looks like it. My mistake. I should have left that middle paragraph out.
by NickFantana on
Mar 30, 2008 1:56 PM EDT
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Am I the only one who sometimes wonders where all the Dellucci hate comes from? Is it just because we have BenFran?
Only once in 10 years has DD produced a lower OPS than he did in 2007. The previous two seasons it was .880 and .899 (.894 and .904 against RHP). I know he's now officially an injury risk, but I feel like people just assume he's going to bomb. Hard. Like, royally.
by nickjs21 on
Mar 28, 2008 3:39 PM EDT
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middling role players aren't sexy. and if they weren't developed as indians, forget it. for some reason a lot of indians like two kinds of players - homegrown "fan favorites" and big free agent signings. any player acquired off the waivers, via trade (god forbid for a fan favorite) or FA is usually downright HATED.
by Brick. on
Mar 28, 2008 3:45 PM EDT
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other than the fact that he absolutely sucked (outside of one big hit) when he was actually healthy last year?
by westbrook on
Mar 28, 2008 6:16 PM EDT
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You're throwing out an entire career of productivity for ~175 ABs. Which one of us is being more logical? This is my point exactly.
by nickjs21 on
Mar 29, 2008 8:50 AM EDT
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Minor League roster info
From David Hall at Kinston.com:
http://www.kinston.com/sports/whitney_45379___article.html/pujols_base.html
Good stuff on Whitney's experience with the Nats, also Scott Lewis out for two months with a lat strain, and some players released.
by mcrose on Mar 28, 2008 12:00 PM EDT 0 recs
That's bad news on Lewis. I had him as a sleeper to really emerge as a top prospect this year. Yet again, there's no such things as a pitching prospect...
by APV on
Mar 28, 2008 12:15 PM EDT
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On an unrelated note, here is a player journal posted by Jordan Brown:
by Matt Y. on Mar 28, 2008 1:45 PM EDT 0 recs
Haf going the other way, good at bat.
Il faut d'abord durer.
by CU Adam on Mar 28, 2008 9:18 PM EDT 0 recs
?
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on
Mar 28, 2008 9:29 PM EDT
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Sorry? Didn't he hit the ball to left?
Il faut d'abord durer.
by CU Adam on
Mar 28, 2008 9:32 PM EDT
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Nevermind. I just figured out I wasn't in the game thread. Sorry.
Il faut d'abord durer.
by CU Adam on
Mar 28, 2008 9:41 PM EDT
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That's okay. I hope my comment didn't come off as harsh - I was teasing.
by Voltaire on
Mar 29, 2008 1:25 AM EDT
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