Game 1: Indians 10, White Sox 8

by afh4 on Mar 31, 2008 9:45 PM EDT

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Casey Blake	.293	CC Sabathia	-.216
Franklin Gutierrez	.281	Rafael Perez	-.193
Rafael Betancourt	.233	Asdrubal Cabrera	-.111

Today, finally, mercifully, the Cleveland Indians played baseball. It was an opening day game for the ages. The game was harrowing; we saw a poor performance out of our best pitcher and incredible heroics out of (hopefully) a superstar in the making and the most maligned Cleveland Indian in recent history.

Things started out shaky as Sabathia spotted Boo "Radley" Thome a 2-run homer in the top of the first. Boo also sunk a pair of scrapbooking scissors into Victor's thigh later in the game, and El Capitan is listed as day to day.

The offenses were briefly quiet until Tribe Time arrived, and our heroes exploded for 7 runs in the second, including a 3-run jack from Franky G, who luckily was able to make the game despite his duties being the best singer in Menudo and the president of the Czech Republic, and a solo shot from Grady "Yes, I'm still getting better" Sizemore. The Sox chipped away at the lead, touching up three of the Indians' best pitchers, while Chicago's normally shaky bullpen held down the Tribe until the game was tied in the seventh.

Some truly odd though perhaps (?) correct umpiring happened in the meantime, but the game crystallized in the bottom of the eighth when Casey Blake stepped in with the bases loaded, two outs and hammered a ball against the left field wall.

I wanted to write a full-on recap of the game but, frankly, I'm not sure I'm up to the challenge of making this game any more fantastical than it already was. Any one of the mainstream sites can tell you what happened, from the bizarre umpiring to the improbably squashed comeback, and the events you'll read about stand on their own merit. Today, to me, is not a day for recounting but instead one for reflection.

I've literally just finished reading Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret by Judy Blume, for reasons we're not going to discuss. With apologies to Ms. Blume, I've adapted the end of her book here, in what seems to me to be both the most fitting end to a terrific opening day and the most fitting beginning to the 2008 season. Let's Go Tribe.

I went back into the house. I had to go to the bathroom. I was thinking about Franklin Gutierrez and about how I liked to stand close to him. I was thinking that I was glad he wasn't an Alex Escobar and I was happy that he hit in our lineup. Then I looked down at my scoreboard and I couldn't believe it. There was Casey Blake on it. Not a lot-but enough. I really hollered, "Mom – hey Mom – come quick!"
When my mother got to the bathroom she said, "What is it? What's the matter?"

"I got it," I told her.

"Got what?"

I started to laugh and cry at the same time. "My first win. I've got my first win!" My nose started running and I reached for a tissue.

"Are you sure, Margaret?" my mother asked.

"Look-look at this," I said showing her my scoreboard.

"My God! You've really got it! My little season!" Then her eyes filled up and she started sniffling too. "Wait a minute – I've got the equipment in the other room. I was going to put it in your summer camp trunk, just in case."

"You were?"

"Yes. Just in case." She left the bathroom.

When she came back I asked her, "Is it Private Lady stuff?"

"No, I got you Teenage Softies."

"Good," I said.

"Now look, Margaret – here's how you do it. The critical hit fits inside your scoreboard and –"

"Mom, I said. "I've been practicing in my room for five months!"

Then my mother and I laughed together and she said, "In that case, I guess I'll wait in the other room."

I locked the bathroom door and peeled the paper off the bottom of the critical hit. I pressed the sticky strip against my scoreboard. Then I got dressed and looked at myself in the mirror. Would anyone know my secret? Would it show? Would Dombrowski, for instance, know if I went back outside to talk to him? Would K-Love know it right away when he came home for dinner? I had to call the Tigers and Twins and Royals right away. Poor Tigers! She'd be the last of the Pre-Teen Sensations to get it. And I'd been so sure it would be me! How about that! Now I am growing for sure. Now I am almost a championship season!

Are you still there Shap? It's me, the Indians 2008 Season. I know you're there Shap. I know you wouldn't have missed this for anything! Thank you Shap. Thanks an awful lot ...

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Haha funny stuff.

It's funny you call him Boo Thome. As you know I'm a Toronto Maple Leafs fan, and our fanbase does not like a certain Ottawa Senator named Daniel Alfredsson. He gets booed both when the Sens play in Toronto, as well as when the Leafs play in Ottawa since Leaf fans travel well. And he is booed mercilessly. To the point that whenever he touches the puck our radio play-by-play often refers to him as Boo Alfredsson. Not sure Hammy would ever adopt that though.

by supermarioelia on Mar 31, 2008 10:13 PM EDT 0 recs

To summarize your little adaptation - Indians win - period!

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Mar 31, 2008 10:14 PM EDT 0 recs

From wrong to wrong.

by Voltaire on Mar 31, 2008 10:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

If beating the Sox (and making Hawk apoplectic along the way) is wrong, I don't wanna be right

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Mar 31, 2008 10:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

THAT sure isn't.

by Voltaire on Mar 31, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think what made this most special for me was that I wasn't sure what that book was about until I got to:

"Look-look at this," I said showing her my scoreboard.

The not knowing it made it even more special.

I would say I haven't laughed like that in a long time, but that makes me sound like a sad divorcee. So, I'll say I owe you a beer for this. Preferably at a downtown Cleveland bar prior to Game 1 or 2 of the World Series.

by NickFantana on Mar 31, 2008 10:26 PM EDT 0 recs

I was also befuddled until that point. I threw up, then continued reading.

I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Mar 31, 2008 11:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

I missed the festivities traveling all day today, but yowsa Gutz

by Roger Dorn on Mar 31, 2008 10:36 PM EDT 0 recs

whoa

by oxforddave on Mar 31, 2008 11:06 PM EDT 0 recs

awesome

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Mar 31, 2008 11:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

It wasn't the greatest game, but it was a great start to the season.

I ended up staying at work until the game was over so I didn't miss any of the action during the commute!

by Tribalism on Mar 31, 2008 11:23 PM EDT 0 recs

by the way this post is thoroughly disgusting, yet hilarious

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Mar 31, 2008 11:23 PM EDT 0 recs

From my untrained eye and completely unscientific view. The Shoppach non-tag out was closer than I thought, but let's say 50% of the time, they call him safe (likely the right call). The Garko stretch job at 1st base, I still couldn't tell, but let's say 40% of the time, they call him safe. Not sure if the call was right. The interference call, obviously right, but not ALWAYS called, let's say 25% of the time, there's a no call (i.e. safe).

You can't play this type of hypothetical, because the in-game scenarios of course immediately change like a choose year own adventure plot after one of these things, but I think it's fair to say we were very lucky to win the game.

Not that i didn't love every minute of the Hawk meltdown.

by cheech99 on Mar 31, 2008 11:23 PM EDT 0 recs

Hmm.

Apparently I've found the line.

Thanks for the bump. Hope I didn't revolt anyone too intensely. I mean, this book is written for 6th grade girls.

by afh4 on Mar 31, 2008 11:24 PM EDT 0 recs

Right, but you see, that's not how it's being presented. Nor to whom it's being presented. Also, it is altered. Also, it is on a Tribe blog. Also, it was not expected (that book is famous enough everyone pretty much knows what it's about when they pick it up).

by Voltaire on Mar 31, 2008 11:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

hahahaha.

You make me sort of feel bad about it. I thought I'd crossed the line with that Borowski DUI line earlier.

by afh4 on Mar 31, 2008 11:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

I want to make it clear I thought it was humorous...but not funny. I couldn't laugh at it; I was too busy cringing my spine in half until it snapped.

by Voltaire on Apr 1, 2008 12:39 AM EDT up 0 recs

you really took this hard . . . it's not as if he perverted Borges or something, fercrissakes.

by DocNo on Apr 1, 2008 7:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

Actually I'm with mon amie on this one. The premise of the piece is a bit gut-curning. But then I remember that afh4 spends many of his waking hours with pre, peri and post pubescent semi-adults and then it all makes sense.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Apr 1, 2008 8:10 AM EDT up 0 recs

Its pretty much the funniest thing ive ever read on a blog. It's funny in a Superbad/Knocked up kind of way....I wouldn't laugh at it if my parents were around, but i'm quite sure that any other sailor would say the same thing.

God truly does hate cleveland sports.

by Gradysmanldy on Apr 1, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up 0 recs

Apparently I've found the line.

No, I'm pretty sure you just obliterated it.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Mar 31, 2008 11:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think this is the most bizarre thing anyone has ever written here, and probably by a wide margin.

by Jay on Mar 31, 2008 11:26 PM EDT 0 recs

Ok, I'm giggling on my couch now.

I like how some people are just ignoring it and discussing the game, which is probably the proper course of action.

by afh4 on Mar 31, 2008 11:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

How did I not know Gutz was president of the Czech Repubilc? That at least explains why I like him so.

by kova on Mar 31, 2008 11:37 PM EDT 0 recs

and all this time I thought it was Vaclav Klaus ...

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Mar 31, 2008 11:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

That's what Shirly Temple wants you to believe.

With that said, I should call Gutz - Franz Gutierová.

by kova on Mar 31, 2008 11:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

delete the á. Unless you want him to be a female.

by kova on Mar 31, 2008 11:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

Wow. I am stunned. I realize you said we're not going to talk about why you were reading that, but why were you reading that?

I think everyone on the site would be 100% okay with afh writing wrap-ups for games on a consistent basis.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Mar 31, 2008 11:46 PM EDT 0 recs

yep

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Mar 31, 2008 11:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's actually not all that exciting. I teach Middle School, so it makes sense on that level.

Also, somebody basically dared me to write a young adult novel this summer. Go time.

by afh4 on Mar 31, 2008 11:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

You do realize that from in your version of this Casey Blake = blood.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Mar 31, 2008 11:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

Oh, I've got the whole metaphor worked out. But to me, Blake (or perhaps more accurately his performance) is just a symbol of a succesful season truly arriving. The joy that Margaret has over becoming a woman is the same (or similar) joy to what we have that Casey gets that hit, we win the first game, and our team looks like everything we imagined.

Except for the whole pitching problem.

by afh4 on Mar 31, 2008 11:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

I guess I was just being too literal about the whole thing ... silly me.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Mar 31, 2008 11:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

No, I think Blake as blood works too. I didn't mean to take that out of the equation.

I just meant you don't have to 1:1 it. I kind of like to because I find this sort of amusing but I think there's a second, maybe less cringeworthy way to look at it.

Also! Oswalt just got pulled after 5.1. What's up with 5.1 today?

by afh4 on Mar 31, 2008 11:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

hmm. italics confuse me.

by afh4 on Apr 1, 2008 12:10 AM EDT up 0 recs

Thome = PMS

by SuddenSam on Apr 1, 2008 12:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

Bummer. I regret asking now, the reason was way better in my imagination.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Apr 1, 2008 12:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

Sorry. I should've kept my mouth shut.

by afh4 on Apr 1, 2008 12:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

Not your fault. I'm going to be a trial lawyer, I need to learn not to ask that "one more question."

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Apr 1, 2008 12:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

It's not always that bad. I did it once, during a trial. An associate had taken a crappy deposition of the plaintiff who used a milk crate as a step while carrying a 24"x24" slab of marble tile. He knew it was a milk crate, knew it wasn't pinned down and stepped on it anyway. It broke, and he destroyed his knee.

At trial, I asked him "why?"

His answer, "I didn't think."

I wrote it on the board at the start of my closing ... and won the trial.

You just have to know when you can get away with it.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Apr 1, 2008 12:20 AM EDT up 0 recs

The phrase is, "I don't deny you your interpretation."

by fleerdon on Apr 1, 2008 10:35 AM EDT up 0 recs

Oh and that's very nice of you to say about wrap-ups but I think I just became a little polarizing.

by afh4 on Mar 31, 2008 11:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

On the other more baseball related topic of this post:

C.C. = lowest WPA

Blake = highest WPA

all the more reason this game was bizare.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Mar 31, 2008 11:51 PM EDT 0 recs

Andrew? My mouth is still hanging open in utter shock. Fantastic? Yes, wow, fantastic.

I had other things to say: like to ask why you were so opposed to Garko bunting, and to point out the our game wasn't even the craziest (see Braves-Pirates), and to predict that the story on the national baseball front tomorrow will about the sad performance of closers...but......

I loved it, but I'm not sure I want to ever read it again. Like seeing Requiem for a Dream. I should also add that I had no idea what was going on until halfway through.

by dgcambridge on Apr 1, 2008 12:01 AM EDT 0 recs

Thanks, Dave. I think I've finally proven, umm, my insanity or something like that.

by afh4 on Apr 1, 2008 12:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

I'm rampantly anti-bunting in almost every situation. I buy that idea that the only time worth bunting is, what, no outs, men on first and second, bottom 9? That's what it says in "The Book" right?

Plus, and this is just my assumptions, I don't really want our guys bunting. With the exception of maybe Asdrubal none of our guys strike me as "bunters." That's probably just my knee jerk from seeing what seems like almost every bunt fail over the last two seasons because guys like JP and Aaron Boone couldn't get them down.

by afh4 on Apr 1, 2008 12:12 AM EDT up 0 recs

Agreed.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Apr 1, 2008 10:21 AM EDT up 0 recs

according to the Win Expectancy Finder, linked through Fangraphs:

http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy/search

Looking at just situations from 1990 to 2006, A team in the Indians situation when Garko was up won 81.4% of the time before.

After a successful bunt, 78% of the time.

Now the important part. We really shouldn't just look at just the before and after of a bunt. We should compare a theoretical bunt, to the theoretical mean of results of swinging away. Garko has a career .344 OBP against righties, and has GIDP 2% of the time. So 63.6% he'll make one out (and for the moment we're just going to assume that the out never advances the runners). This results in a WE of .727. 34.4% of the time he'll get on (and keeping with the ultra-simplistic previous example) and load the bases, nobody out, giving us a .929 WE. And 2% of the time, a guy on third with 2 out, for a .659 WE. Weighting those together gives us a .795 WE.

Even if we keep the outcomes at the most conservative levels possible, swinging away results in the better WE. Obviously we can assume that some Garko outs (though few with Peralta and Shoppach on the basepaths) result in runners advancing, and the vast majority of non-outs to result in better than a bases loaded, still tied situation, creating a huge difference between WE after bunting and after swinging away.

And thats completely ignoring the myriad of possible failures that can come with Garko trying to bunt over 2 slow baserunners.

by 7foot3 on Apr 1, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up 0 recs

Dude, your numbers are pretty much all wrong. What first clued me in was your 2% claim, which I guess you got from dividing his GIDP into his plate appearances. That obviously isn't right, because it ignores the situation. It doesn't even pass the common sense test. What fan who has watched a lot of baseball thinks that a slow footed slugger is only a 1/50 shot to ground into a double play with a guy on first? If that was the case, Jake Westbrook would be working the counter at a Starbucks somewhere.

But even your numbers from your linked WE calculator are wrong. Home time, 8th inning, 1 and 2nd with 0 outs, it gives .800. 8th inning, 2 and 3rd with 1 out, it gives .803. Hey, it's your citation.

I like this article, despite its somewhat unnecessary length. There's a tradeoff in our situation, which the article captures nicely. On one hand, the bunt actually lowers the total number of runs you'd expect to score in the inning. On the other hand, it increases the odds of scoring at least one run. (from a likelihood of about 13 out of 20 to a likelihood of 14 out of 20). In the bottom of the ninth, it's a clear choice. But in the bottom of the eighth, as your link shows, it's almost coin flip. Which means all the more reason to consider the specifics of the particular players involved.

I would bunt there. I can understand not wanting to do so, but it's not a stupid choice.

by dgcambridge on Apr 2, 2008 12:10 AM EDT up 0 recs

yeah, the GIDP per PA was wrong, and I realized it pretty quickly. He actually GIDP's 6% of the time with a guy on 1st. But you are looking at data from 1977 to 2006, Knowing that the run scoring environments have changed a lot over that time, I (caveat: pretty much randomly) decided that 1990 to 2006 would give a more accurate model for the current RSE. From 77 to 90, yeah, go nuts bunting guys over.

I had convinced myself that not only was the bunt acceptable, it was good strategy.

by 7foot3 on Apr 2, 2008 6:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Clearly, spring training is over and Andrew definitely brought his A game to the post game analysis. Love it. Amazing the game thread post count, hate that I couldn't get free to participate any more than I could!

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Apr 1, 2008 12:04 AM EDT 0 recs

Your using the word "analysis" pretty liberally.

by afh4 on Apr 1, 2008 12:05 AM EDT up 0 recs

Naw, your analysis is always more fun than the drivel that most folks have become accustomed to, damn the man (ESPN), save the empire

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Apr 1, 2008 10:36 AM EDT up 0 recs

I go out for the evening and this happens. I guess I shouldn't reveal that the last novel I read was Lolita...

by APV on Apr 1, 2008 12:17 AM EDT 0 recs

my favorite book. that boy can write stupid good, don't be ashamed.

by Thommy on Apr 1, 2008 9:34 AM EDT up 0 recs

I'll just say that I see why it's praised and appreciated, but not my favorite book...

by APV on Apr 1, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

Now I know how people felt when they first saw cubism. It's like it relates to the real world subject, but not.

Now that the Bedard bandwagon has officially crashed into the Maritime Seas, solely the local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer."

by mjmarble on Apr 1, 2008 12:17 AM EDT 0 recs

I like this site even more now.

I'm not sure how bizarre the game was (yet), but I know my attempts at following it thru various site crashes and commutes from work, replete with expletive filled declamations as I cussed my keyboard and contemplated taking an axe to my dsl in between flashes of realtime info, was truly surreal. I look forward to future literary adaptations, af!

We won, and Vic fell shy of a Dellucci, most hopefully...

... El Guti looked totally locked in today, not just the way he played, but his reactions to the game as well, he was really into it. He had a great spring and follows it up with a huge game on opening day. I look at him now vs Trot last year and the difference in talent is dimensional.

Can't wait for game #2...

by mcrose on Apr 1, 2008 12:19 AM EDT 0 recs

i love how this post has a semblance of serious recap, until you click "read more."

ps - afh4 - my great uncle is a former sports writer in cleveland and indians fan sleeps with a buffalo bill's blanket.

by joeee on Apr 1, 2008 1:07 AM EDT 0 recs

by serious i meant legit, albeit hilarious

by joeee on Apr 1, 2008 1:07 AM EDT up 0 recs

This is one of thsoe "absurdly funny -- until you literally puke" kine of posts. Wow.

by tabler84 on Apr 1, 2008 5:17 AM EDT 0 recs

Wow, wow, wow. I think afh4 really missed baseball season.

by Ohiokie on Apr 1, 2008 7:39 AM EDT 0 recs

Keeping score has lost its innocence for this old Virginian.

by ken from alexandria on Apr 1, 2008 8:10 AM EDT 0 recs

If Blake and his performance represents what he/they obviously does/do in this story, then poor Margaret is in for quite a few "late" scares in the near future.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Apr 1, 2008 8:22 AM EDT 0 recs

Good LORD that is funny. And it caused me to try to explain to a co-worker that I was laughing at a Casey Blake / menstrual cycle analogy. Whoops.

by tabler84 on Apr 1, 2008 9:23 AM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, after I read it, I was looking around frantically for someone to show it to. But, literally, the only people who could possibly appreciate it in any way are on this site. Occasionally in this situation, I show/tell me wife anyway, but I learned my lesson with the Silverman/Damon/Kimmel video series.

by dgcambridge on Apr 2, 2008 12:13 AM EDT up 0 recs