Sorry J, I dropped the ball. Walk away from LGT for an afternoon and BOOM! my entire world gets turned upside down.

He's young. Plenty of time to develop his knowledge of the strike zone, and as a bonus, he's likely to develop a lot more power at the same time. I'm not saying he'll be a star, but I think he's even money to be a major league regular at some point, and that's pretty good for a 20-year-old.

Hello TribeJay,

Weglarz's strikeouts are a bit of a concern at this point, but as Jay mentioned, he's young, and unlike Branyan, is much more capable of taking a walk at the same age and level:

Weglarz at Low-A Lake County at age 19: 82 BB/129 K in 125 G/439 ABs.
Branyan at Low-A Columbus at age 19: 27 BB/120 K in 76 G/277 ABs(! - quite frankly, it's not even close!)

As for those players who have had big-league success posting high-strikeout numbers, Adam Dunn wasn't quite as extreme as Weglarz at Low-A at age 19 - he had 46 BB/64 K in 313 ABs, but his Ks numbers at High-A were a bit concerting at age 20: 101 Ks/420 ABs (though he also drew 100 BBs and hit .281,) and he turned out alright (though his BA ability did plummet, but he does hit 40+ HRs, mostly in a hitter's ballpark, providing some very solid offensive value.)

The main thing is, as Jay mentioned, Weglarz has plenty of time to learn and improve upon his strike zone judgment. Someone like OF Brad Snyder, who is much older, I'd be more concerned about his ability to make consistent contact, being that he's about to be 26-YO, and still hasn't consistently been able to make contact since Low-A. Branyan's strikeout problems continued to persist as he continued to move up the ladder (and keep in mind that his K problem was far worse than Weglarz's.) If Weglarz's strike out rate continues to increase at a high rate for 3-4 more seasons like it did for Branyan and Snyder, I'll be very concerned at that point, but for right now, I think it's just something to monitor but not be overly concerned about.

The fact that Weglarz can already draw a lot of walks (82 in 439 Low-A ABs in 2007, and already 8(!) in 10 High-A ABs in 2008,) I think that too will help to mitigate the strikeouts to some extent, especially when it comes to his OBP; combine that with plus power, and that would certainly give him some offensive value at the very least in that he would be a patient, power bat for the Indians' future lineups.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Hello TribeJay,

Certainly, there are some concerns about his ability to make contact, but as mentioned, he's young.

Another advantage I thought of with him over Branyan involves what you mentioned about Weglarz comes from - Ontario, Canada, where they don't play as much baseball, as say, Macon, Georgia, which is where Branyan played HS ball.

So, while the swings may be similar between the two, I think Weglarz is many light-years ahead (i.e. more advanced) than Branyan at the same age and level, so I think his chances of being more useful and better than Branyan are pretty good at this point, and Branyan has carved out a decent career at the ML level, especially for someone who never really controlled the strike zone very well (striking out between every 2-3 ABs every season he's been in the Majors.)

Certainly, there's nothing wrong with caution, though - he's still a distance away, as Weglarz probably won't be ready for at least 2-3 more years (around 2010-2011.)

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Totally agreed, TribeJay. How much can his strike zone judgement improve when he is already walking a ton? All else being the same (position, age, etc.) for a prospect, I'd much rather have a guy who hits .330 with doubles power that doesn't walk or K much, than a guy who hits .270 with homer power with lots of walks and Ks. As Jay would say, the best thing about Weglarz is not his power, or his walks, it is that he had a good year as a 19 year old.That may put him above the older "hit for average guys" in the system (Hodges, Brown) as a potential MLB player.