The Indians haven't really settled in yet -- basically playing .500 ball and off to the slow starts they've typically had under Eric Wedge. The record itself is not worrisome (especially with 6 road games) -- the Red Sox, Yankees, and other "good" teams are playing similarly erratic baseball.

What DOES concern me is the way they've played. My biggest concerns, as I've said before, are a. that Hafner is not hitting the ball solidly and doesn't look like the Hafner of old; b. that the infield defense has been shaky, which has cost them some runs (and arguably some games); and c. that the bullpen looks unsettled (none of the guys they're counting on has looked solid, with the partial exception of Raffie Perez.)

Last year they won because their pitching was really outstanding, their infield defense improved over 06 (especially once Cabrera took over) and because they hit pretty well, even without Hafner. I don't think they can repeat last year with declines in all of these areas.

I think they'll hit better than they have (although I really worry about Hafner). I think the starting pitching will be fine (CC will get better, Lee has looked better, Fausto looks strong, and Westbrook looks set for a big year) -- Byrd is a problem, but remember we started out last year with Jeremy Sowers in the rotation, and he was horrible, but we had the depth to replace him (ironically, Sowers may BE the replacement this year!!). The relief pitching is more of a concern (again, remember 06). They need at least a couple of the key guys out there to join Perez and be consistent. The infield defense is a problem -- Blake and Peralta have reverted to form; they may need Marte to play and play well for that to change (I don't see them moving Cabrera to short and calling up Barfield unless Blake continues to be bad and Marte takes his place and is ALSO bad).

I haven't said anything about the corner outfielders. They've been horrible, but I don't think that the team's real problem is there (although it'd take some pressure off Hafner if someone would start to hit out there!).

Right now, I think they're playing like a .500 team, largely because of their strong starting pitching. If they can fix two of the three problems I think are central, they'll contend. If they don't, we're back to 2006.

I think the team to worry about is the White Sox. They have arguably the best bullpen in the division and they have a 1-9 that can bash out a lot of homeruns. If they can stay injury free, they are going to be right there at the end.

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I wrote in a post the other day. The last game in the Angels series has eased any of my concerns. We were getting drubbed by a playoff team (6-0) and we clawed our way back into the game. Just like what the 07 team.

That was the hallmark of last years team ... and it's still carried over into this year. i think we'll be fine. We just need some tweaking, so we can be firing on all cylinders come August.

It's a long season. The main indicator I'm looking at at the start of the year is the rotation. Can Carmona duplicate? Is Westy's improvement for real? Can Cliff return to form?

So far I'm pretty encouraged, and if everyone stays healthy this could be the best Tribe rotation in a long time, and that in itself is a good way to return to postseason play. Particularly if Lee maintains his return to form, and bumps Byrd to the #5 spot where he definitely belongs.

Otherwise a lot of players look like they're still getting in gear, physically and mentally. I've said it before that Wedge's teams for whatever reason often don't come out of ST hitting the ground running, and while last year is an exception, this year is a return to form. Hopefully they'll wake up soon - I'm not worried about the long haul yet.

Obvious Worries

1) Byrd: I don't have any problem with the FO's decision to pick up Byrd's option. Actually, I thought it was a good move, so long as the Indians viewed Byrd's option as a sunk cost and didn't feel the NEED to play him. After all, he'd just had a decent year and we still didn't know what we'd get out of Lee/Sowers/Laffey. With his prior admitted use of HGH (via. a dentist's prescription), I'm now starting to wonder if he's suffering for want of PED. If he is, and Lee continues to look good, I think the Indians can count on one of (Sowers/Laffey/Miller) to replace Byrd's HGH-less production.

2) Borowski: My worry has more to do with how many bad outings he's allowed before the FO/Wedge decides to send him the way of Fultz. Given our bullpen depth (both majors and minors), this isn't keeping me up at night.

Less Obvious Worries

1) Derek Shelton: The offense really has been sputtering for a full half season. Production was pathetic in the second half of '07. We were bailed out by amazing second half performances from Carmona, Sabathia and Westbrook. They were #1, #3 and #7 in second half ERA respectively! Is it time the Tribe starting thinking about getting some fresh blood in at hitting coach?

2) Conservative Promotions: Carmona, Lewis, Laffey and Perez weren't really expected to contribute in any meaningful way in 2007. But they were called up out of necessity and rose to the challenge. Granted, for every Carmona, there's Marte, but I worry that the Indians will be overly cautious with calling up their young talent unless their hand is forced. What if Hodges or Francisco are hotter than 20 suns, but the Indians are getting reliable, but less than mediocre production from Dellichaels or Blarte?

I think it's still a two team race. The Royals are definitely moving in the right direction, but they'll need a LOT to go right to keep the pace that I think the Indians and the Tigers will set. The White Sox are potentially not a terrible team, but I'd bet they probably will end being one sooner than later. That's a ship without a captain and without a plan. The Twins are a mess, too.

I think that what the other three teams in the division are more likely to do than actually compete seriously for the division title is be good enough to make those games not a joke, and bring the records of the Tribe and Tigers down enough that the wild card might be tough to come by. Again.

I don't really see the Sox as better than the Twins. They have hitting, as you say, but their starting pitching is really suspect. The Twins have some good players (Morneau, Mauer, Cuddyer); their bullpen is usually solid. Their big weakness is in the infield, I think. Their starting pitching might turn out to be better than Chicago's: Hernandez has looked good, and Bonser and Baker have had some success in the past. If Liriano makes it back, they might be solid. I doubt they'll challenge, but I think they'll be better than people expect. They always seem to be tough, somehow.

I think, for both little-picture reasons (the actual losses on the books) and big-picture reasons (what those losses may indicate about the club's quality), the Tigers are going to have some trouble getting to 90 wins.

At this point, I think the Indians are even-odds for 90 wins, the Tigers for 85, the White Sox for 80, the Royals and Twins for 75. The 90 wins is not an aggresive pick for the Indians, actually, as I'm not even really considering the fact that Carmona and Westbrook might well outperform PECOTA by a total of 4 wins.

The key for the W.Sox is gonna be Joe Crede, IMO. If he stays hot, watch out for them.

Not serious of course . . . just reviving Steve Buffum's (of the B-List) strategy from last year as a superstitious way to get the team rolling.

Then again, his recent lineups have been ridiculous bordering on downright irresponsible. If he doesn't want to watch Frank tank in RF, then Michael's ineptitude is, if nothing else, the perfect excuse to give Marte the final trial he needs to be given, placing K-sey in right, at least freakin' more than once every 10 games.

The many concerns, valid and exaggerated, we have with this team pale in comparison to those in Detroit. And it's not improving rapidly: this afternoon, the Tigers are being Meg Ryan'd through five innings by Gavin Floyd.

The Tribe needs to peak around August-September. Just like last year, they are poised to come back from a slow start and gradually turn up the juice (no pun intended) thus reaching their pinnacle out about 45-60 days after the All Star break. They are a good enough team to play sub par (their standards) in May-June to win games during those two months, and then pull away from the opposition after the AS break. Does nobody remember this? That is the Tribe's signature move. Even playing .500 ball into June, Id be unconcerned, frustrated but unconcerned about the playoff picture. That's just me though, a Tribe fan for 20 years.

My thoughts?

The season is saved. I watched "Major League" for this first time in '08 last night.