N'Sync: A Look at Balls in Play Data

by crazymoloh on Apr 18, 2008 5:11 PM EDT

Hardball Times (via. Baseball Info Solutions) keeps track of all data for balls in play, beginning in 2004. Here's THT's data for the 2008 Cleveland Indians. What struck me when I was perusing their site yesterday, was that the Indians' hitters were popping up an inordinate amount of the time. Almost everyone's IF/F (infield fly per fly ball) numbers were a couple of factors larger than they should be. Unsurprisingly, fewer fly balls (HR/F) are reaching the bleachers. However, players' line drive rates and ground ball rates aren't out of whack in similar proportions.

Some questions (which I'm not smart enough to answer).....

1) Is the disparity between early season IF/F and HR/F rates and previous full season rates, simply a matter of players not having their timing down?

2) Is there anything Shelton can/should be doing to help the players get in rhythm quicker?

Observations from the data below.....
(As limited as the data is, it does have value because it is telling us what kind of contact players are making thus far. But yes, these numbers have zero predictive value)

1) Aside from suffering from pop up-itis, like everyone else, Hafner's LD%, HR/F and GB% are inching away from his 2007 rates to their 2005 levels. Once he stops popping up, will Hafners HR/F rate increase to 2005-2006 levels? I'm praying so.

2) Whatever Victor isn't popping up, he's killing with line drives (36%). His LD% explains his high BA/BIP numbers.

3) Jhonny's poor line drive rate (6.7%) explains why he's having a tough time buying a hit. Other numbers (GB%, HR/F, IF/F) are in the ballpark of good 'ol Jhonny.

4) With a 0.194 BA/BIP, you could argue that God simply hates Blake. But he's hitting fewer line drives and hitting a hell of a lot more grounders. With Blake's luck, his luck probably won't turn around (a permeating syllogism, no?).

5) It hard to say too much about Dellucci's power numbers since his power (HR/F) has declined each year. While he was injured in 2007, he's hitting with the same power that he did in that year. Is it reasonable to expect more of his fly balls to start going out? Who knows? But since his other numbers (LD%, IF/F, BA/BIP) are within his 2005-2007 range, Dellucci's probably showing us all the power he has left in his bat.

6) Once Grady inverts his IF/F and HR/F numbers, which he will, we'll have the Grady we all know and love back.

_______________________________________________________

LEGEND:

* - N'Sync means a player's numbers, in a given category, are within two standard deviations of his three year average.

* - Numbers highlighted in blue mean a player's numbers, in said category, are 'colder' than his previous average. (ex: A lower HR/F is 'colder', while a higher number is 'hotter')

* - The concept of 'cold' or 'hot' doesn't really make intuitive sense with respect to GB rates. So, all out of sync GB numbers are in blue.

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Anyone up for doing the same with our pitchers’ data?

NBR (No Borowski Run): Refers to that run which puts the Indians up by 4 over an opponent, thereby drastically reducing the chances of Joe Borowski pitching in a game.

by crazymoloh on Apr 18, 2008 5:12 PM EDT 0 recs

This is awesome. Note that I’m too lazy to do any numbers crunching with the data, but our pitchers’ stats can be found here.

Despite all of my best intentions, I have not, in fact, grown up to be a debaser.

by zempf on Apr 18, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

Aside from pop up-itis, Gutz seems to belting his share of line drives and taking a good number of pitches. A little luck and better timing should improve his numbers.

NBR (No Borowski Run): Refers to that run which puts the Indians up by 4 over an opponent, thereby drastically reducing the chances of Joe Borowski pitching in a game.

by crazymoloh on Apr 18, 2008 5:46 PM EDT 0 recs

I think you need to look at the n’s for the various columns, too. Victor’s IF/F ratio, for example, is probably misleading, because it looks, from the other numbers in the table, as if he has hit relatively few fly balls of any kind. So, it’s a high percentage of small number in his case (maybe not so for some of the others).

I wonder if this says something about how the Indians are being pitched? Are pitchers jamming them or doing other things that typically induce pop-ups? That might be a way to USE these data. Otherwise, they wind up being a description of the problem; useful, but not really a tool you can use well to fix whatever’s wrong. (although I guess if a guy is hitting line drives and not getting on base, you can conclude that he’s just unlucky).

by peter m on Apr 18, 2008 5:57 PM EDT 0 recs

I think you need to look at the n’s for the various columns, too. Victor’s IF/F ratio, for example, is probably misleading, because it looks, from the other numbers in the table, as if he has hit relatively few fly balls of any kind. So, it’s a high percentage of small number in his case (maybe not so for some of the others).

Why? All of the data is for a relatively small sample size, Victor’s just more so. This is data is just describing outcomes and not predicting or saying that its indicative of anything.

I wonder if this says something about how the Indians are being pitched? Are pitchers jamming them or doing other things that typically induce pop-ups?

If you think about the plane traced by a bat (for a mild upper cut swing), an early swing hits creates contact toward the end of the barrel, but higher than ideal – resulting in a pop up. A late swing, the opposite effect. Obviously this isn’t a hard and fast rule because you see guys roll over (with early swings) on breaking stuff all the time. I’m not trying to sound technical or authoritative in anyway. I’m just trying to translate my own hitting experience into prose form. My best guess (which could be horrendously off), is that our guys are swinging a little earlier than they’d like on fastballs.

NBR (No Borowski Run): Refers to that run which puts the Indians up by 4 over an opponent, thereby drastically reducing the chances of Joe Borowski pitching in a game.

by crazymoloh on Apr 18, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Also, if you’re in the bleachers, watch out when Martinez, Grady and Blake are at the plate. They be due for some bombs.

NBR (No Borowski Run): Refers to that run which puts the Indians up by 4 over an opponent, thereby drastically reducing the chances of Joe Borowski pitching in a game.

by crazymoloh on Apr 18, 2008 6:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

I meant over the long haul. If a player hits few fly balls, the percentage of them that are popups doesn’t seem quite as big of a deal as it would for a player who tends to hit lots of fly balls.

You might be right that the apparent increase in popups is a function of the hitters’ behavior, but I still wonder when there are numerous players doing the same thing whether it has to do with the approach of the pitchers on the other team. I guess one could figure this out by looking at data on pitching patterns to the various Indians batters. I’m sure the Indians data guys are doing just that!

by peter m on Apr 19, 2008 10:44 AM EDT up 0 recs

This is an interesting way to look at whether a player’s season-to-date has “stabilized” or is just totally out of whack. I think it will be more valuable as the weeks start to wear on. I also think we need to have one more decimal in the P/PA column in order to have halfway decent standard deviations.

by Jay on Apr 18, 2008 6:22 PM EDT 0 recs

Yeah. THT only has data with one decimal point. If I do the same thing in a few weeks, I’ll use ESPN’s data and add the non-batted ball numbers too (BB% and K%).

NBR (No Borowski Run): Refers to that run which puts the Indians up by 4 over an opponent, thereby drastically reducing the chances of Joe Borowski pitching in a game.

by crazymoloh on Apr 18, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

I know there’s at least one site out there that will give you the actual total number of pitches seen for each batter. I’ll see if I can’t find one.

by Jay on Apr 19, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

That would be interesting to see.

Do they keep tack of individual strikes and balls or just total pitches seen?

by gahnki on Apr 19, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yes, they do.

Fangraphs … pretty cool.

moloh … I’ll be expecting that second decimal next time.

by Jay on Apr 19, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

This is interesting, but such a small sample size that I don’t think we can glean anything important from it.

At the halfway point of the season I would love to see this info again.

by gahnki on Apr 18, 2008 6:32 PM EDT 0 recs

Before whipping out the SSS card, simply because you see data of small sample size, ask yourself doing so makes sense. If stats/metrics are being used to quantify performance based on only a small set of data, by all mean whip out your SSS card. The data above is just that, data. All its doing is describing outcomes in a more basic way. Yes, its a small sample but all you’re getting a look at is how the current small sample outcomes differ from each player’s much larger sample of batted ball outcomes. If anything, this gives us a clue about what the nature of our hitters’ regression will be – fewer infield flies and more outfield flies (and HRs).

NBR (No Borowski Run): Refers to that run which puts the Indians up by 4 over an opponent, thereby drastically reducing the chances of Joe Borowski pitching in a game.

by crazymoloh on Apr 18, 2008 6:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Or it could just meant that we have had a slow start to the season, and our timing is just a tad off.

Saying that it shows a regression is a pretty big leap, IMO.

by gahnki on Apr 18, 2008 7:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

Fair enough. Speaking for myself, I find the term ‘slow start’ is just a cop out. At the most basic level what is the difference in batted ball (and non-batted ball, which I didn’t include) outcomes during our ‘slow start’ vs. the previous 400 games?

A player’s average or slugging percentage could be down for any number of reasons. Bullets hit right at opposing fielders, actual suckitude, etc….. Since those metrics offer little real insight to what the real difference is, I presented the batted ball outcomes. This way, we get remove a few more layers of uncertainty and maybe really see what actual difference in bat on ball contact is.

On a side note, I wondering if the answer to one of the great LGT mysteries could be answered with the case of the Hafner shift. For a while people have expressed surprise at the fact that Hafner’s BA/BIP droped from 2004 to 2006 even though a) his line drive rate increased, b) his HR/F increased and c) his IF/F decreased. Line drives at the least likely to be converted into outs. Home runs clearly aren’t going to be outs. Fewer infield flys means even fewer easy outs. ALL THREE of those occurrences would have had the effect of INCREASING, not DECREASING someone’s BA/BIP. Is the simplest explanation the right one? More groundalls were converted into outs? Did the shift accomplish that?

NBR (No Borowski Run): Refers to that run which puts the Indians up by 4 over an opponent, thereby drastically reducing the chances of Joe Borowski pitching in a game.

by crazymoloh on Apr 18, 2008 7:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

If that’s true then the answer would be for Travis to hit more line drives although he is still hitting them at a good rate.

And I think these number may support that notion.

Strike Outs:

2005-123
2006-111
2007-115

So his strike out number aren’t much different on a year to year basis.

So basically all we can ask him to do, and I think he has so far, is swing at the right pitch and hit the ball hard somewhere.

by gahnki on Apr 18, 2008 8:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

I should add that I know these don’t affect the BA/BIP stat, but they show that he isn’t struggling to make contact, or at least he isn’t struggling at a different rate, which means he is still having decent at bats.

by gahnki on Apr 18, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

I misinterpreted your last statement. I understand what you are saying now.

And I can see how that can be construed from the data above.

And I want to add that the line drive rates are pretty encouraging. Usually when a hitter is hitting line drives they can maintain consistency better than the HR/F rate.

And there I go analyzing the data that I previously stated as useless.

by gahnki on Apr 18, 2008 7:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah. I’m definitely feeling better about Gutz now. He might be the new Blake (in terms of luck).

NBR (No Borowski Run): Refers to that run which puts the Indians up by 4 over an opponent, thereby drastically reducing the chances of Joe Borowski pitching in a game.

by crazymoloh on Apr 18, 2008 7:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

It is true, and this might be your point, that no matter how small the sample, you can still say, “This is what’s been happening.” It doesn’t mean that it’s meaningful toward drawing any other conclusions, but nonetheless … it is what it is.

by Jay on Apr 18, 2008 7:54 PM EDT up 0 recs