I guess the question then becomes, assuming there isn’t going to be a return, what can we do? With the relative holes our lineup has at 3B, the corner outfields, and 2B, there isn’t really anywhere to hide a DH that can’t hit like he once did. And it’s not like he’s blocking someone.

Ideally, I’d like to see a top of the lineup of

Sizemore
(2d Batter of the day)
Victor
Garko
Hafner
Peralta

Having one more “hitter” step up would be huge; the problem is, where is it going to come from? We have a lot of young players on the roster - Gutz, Marte (theoretically on the roster), Droobs, Ben Fran obviously the big ones - and none of them seem posed, at least early, to break through for the 2008 season. Realistically, we’re looking at average to sub-par offensive production from 4 positions on the field. Which I think, assuming we’re in the thick of it come mid-summer (and with our pitching, there is no reason not to think that we won’t be), means there is going to be a TON of trade rumors surrounding this team. Is this the year that Shap pulls the trigger and deals a prospect or two (if we aren’t going to play Marte or Ben Fran, lets utilize them somehow). The smart money would obviously be against the FO making a “big” move that would benefit the team for one year, but there’s a part of me, and I’m sure a lot of you, that hopes they address this offense somehow between now and the deadline.

man, evan, I got bagels and coffee at work this morning, it’s pay day, last night’s thread was awesome we’ve won three in a row … you just put a slight damper on my mood!

To add to the point, it doesn’t look to me as if he’s getting into more 0-1, 0-2, or 1-2 situations—I counted 21 this year, which would project out to around 160, similar to both 2006 and 2007 (I counted 174 and 159 for those two years). So, it’s what he does when he’s in that situation. Very discouraging, and hard to figure out what changed first (did he get worse, or did the pitchers get more aggressive with him?).

Given the way Hafner’s season has been going, I think its going to be fairly easy to find data that confirms your worst fears. But there are several other Indians posting terrible numbers in the first 22 games as well.

My problems with drawing conclusions from the numbers you cite…..

1) His K/PA improved in 2007 (his down year), so its hard to argue that there’s even a correlation between his output and K/PA over the last 4 years.

2) Given that his walk rate seems to have remained constant over the last 4 years (good and bad years), I’m more inclined to believe that his current lack of walks isn’t the start of trend.

3) Walks and Ks weren’t the problem last year. Its the quality of contact that has deteriorated. Your numbers don’t explain or elucidate what’s happening when Hafner’s bat meets ball.

Great analysis. Painful, but well done. At least we have a new nickname for Bizarro Pronk.

Trying to figure out Hafner is like trying to figure out Cliff Lee last year or Andruw Jones (the past two years). It’s mostly in-between thier ears and they will need to figure it out themselves or have some kind of trigger that will break the downward spiral.

Hopefully this franchise will be bold enough to bounce him down the lineup if he keeps up his torrid .230 pace through May.

I’m selling on the notion that Haf will return to .280 anytime soon. His swings look awful a lot of the time. He’s swinging at balls well out of the strike zone. The stats agree with the way he looks at the plate. If money and careers didn’t hang in the balance, I’d alternate Vic and Garko at DH right now.

When exactly did they start putting the shift on him?

Clearly, Haf has forgotten how to convert his line drives into hits. A more successful hitter would be more careful to hit line drives away from fielders. Shelton should be working with him on this.

Hafner is also hardly the only player who’s ever confronted an extreme shift (David Ortiz?). If the shift is the problem, it’s because Hafner hasn’t adjusted well to it. But, it’s also possible that his hitting has deteriorated, for whatever reason, and that the relationship to the shift is a coincidence. Someone would have to analyze how if his numbers correlate well with the advent of the shift to see if there’s any reason to think the shift was a determining factor in his struggles. And, it would be interesting to compare Hafner to other hitters who encountered shifts—did their numbers go down in the way that his appear to have over the past year? I confess I don’t know where to find data on when shifts were instituted for particular players, so this may not be possible to do.

The data about his poor luck with line drives are interesting, but that may be the shift at work (if he’s hitting them all to areas where they’ve concentrated the fielders). Then it’s only partly bad luck and partly the other teams’ adjusting to his hitting pattern.

Generally, the best hitters are the ones that can wait as long as they can before committing to a pitch. I’ve always thought Hafner’s problem centered around selling out trying to get to the fastball. That’s due to…

a) just a personal choice to try to hit every pitch for a home run

b) something mechanical that slowed his reaction time to a fastball

c) a reduction in ability to get around on the fastball

(by the way, if it’s c, that does not bode well for the future)

Anyways, whatever the reason, by selling out for the fastball it made him completely unable to stay back on anything offspeed. He literally went a couple of months last year where I don’t ever recall him staying back on an offspeed pitch. He seemed to be out in front of EVERY offspeed ptich. This is where the ground balls came into play, as Pronk would slow his bat speed down just to make contact on an offspeed pitch, his top hand would come off the bat and he’d roll it to the right side of the infield.

Selling out for the fastball meant that he was also pulling off the ball, and therefore never hitting anything hard to left field. His double total has declined over the past few years, and it plummeted last year. It was a rare sight to see Pronk hit one off the left field wall last year.

In 2008, he started out the same way he hit most of last year. However, he’s been much better the past two weeks. He’s staying on the fastball better and hitting more drives into the outfield. Also, he’s able to stay back on a fair amount of offspeed stuff…certainly not every one, but much better than last year. I’m fairly optimistic that we’ll start seeing results soon if he’s able to keep this approach. I don’t think he’ll ever get back to 2005-2006, but that will just mean he peaked at 28-29, and that doesn’t make him unique. At some point, when you go that long without performing, it isn’t a slump. It’s what you are.

The key that I always watch is if his top hand comes off the bat during his swing. That means real trouble. As long as he consistently avoids this by staying back, I think he’ll outperform the last 5 months of 2007.

So at least I was close on that three month swoon thing – probably more like two months but much too long to be called a “slump”. Slumps are like the flu or a cold; if it lasts for longer than a coupla weeks it ain’t the flu or a cold – or a slump for that matter.

Shapiro etal need to revisit how they’re evaluating players. When they make a mistake of Biblical proportions – like signing Hafner to a huge contract – clearly they need to re-calibrate. Shapiro ain’t Phil Segui as of yet – but a coupla more clunkers like the Hafner deal and he’ll be challenging for the crown.