Games Twenty-One and Twenty-Two

by Ryan on Apr 25, 2008 12:48 PM EDT in Game Recaps Comment 18 comments

Fausto Carmona struggled through five innings, with control again his nemesis. The Indians were fortunate that Carmona matched up up against Tomko instead of Bannister, for Fausto might have been pulled much sooner had the Indians not scored seven runs off the Royals' starter. Many of the Tribe hits were of the bloop variety, but, as in recent games, the hitters were patient enough in their at-bats to wait for Tomko's inevitable mistakes.

Indians 2, Royals 0

Cliff Lee's stat line after four starts:

31.2 IP, 0.28 ERA, 1563 ERA+, 11 H, 29 SO, 2 BB

The lone misgiving I have about Lee's success is that it has come against Oakland, Kansas City, and Minnesota, all offenses that will probably finish in the bottom half in the league. But still, that's domination.

However you want to look at the context of Lee's domination, the performances haven't been flukey. Hitters aren't making loud outs. He isn't relying on double plays to bail him out of innings, though his ground ball percentage (45.2%) is much higher than his career averages. He's placing his ~90 mph fastball on the edges of the strike zone. And he's not walking anybody.

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cliff lee babip:

career: .287
2008: .151

someone smarter than me can interpret this.

by emil minty on Apr 25, 2008 12:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

BABIP is a cold, cold bitch.

by gte619n on Apr 25, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On the plus side, it’s not all BABIP luck that’s helping Cliff. I’m sure that’s part of it, but he’s also striking out a bunch of guys & not walking anybody.

Despite all of my best intentions, I have not, in fact, grown up to be a debaser.

by zempf on Apr 25, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it’s safe to say that he will not finish out the year with a 0.28 ERA. But his FIP is 1.56, so the low BABiP has been a very small part of his success.

The quality of the offenses he’s faced is a separate issue.

by vegaswatch on Apr 25, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It means that given equal luck, we would expect him to have given up 21 hits on 73 BIP rather than just 11.

His batting-against line is .109/.125/.139. Normalized for a .287 BABIP, it becomes .208/.221/.248.

So even “fully charging” him with BIP luck, he still ends up holding hitters to a 469 OPS, still extremely low.

See also vegaswatch’s comment about FIP.

by Jay on Apr 25, 2008 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lost in all the revelry and celebration of the sweep is that Jensen Lewis still looks awful and is doing a great Borowski imitation right now.

by Toxicadam on Apr 25, 2008 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

this is a good point. How long do they keep going with him if he’s not chucking it up there with the same velocity as last season and he’s struggling. It was obviously a terrible mistake to let Borowski pitch in high leverage situations while he was struggling to work through his arm problems, what’s up with Lewis?

by hans on Apr 25, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

According to FanGraphs, his average FB was 90.1mph in 2007; this year it’s 87.2. He’s seen about the same dropoff with his slider.

by vegaswatch on Apr 25, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

“It’s a win,” he said. “If the team wins, obviously I did my job and did what I was supposed to. It’s not like I wanted a shutout for me. It’s nice, and I’m glad it happened. But it’s all about the team winning.”

by Brick. on Apr 25, 2008 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

he’s not the same person

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Apr 25, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oops—THIS post nearly made me spray my monitor

by tabler84 on Apr 25, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This post nearly made me spray my monitor

by tabler84 on Apr 25, 2008 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So how many “midge” references are going to be made this weekend with two games being nationally televised?

by xrickx on Apr 25, 2008 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Make that three games nationally televised …. FOX on Saturday, TBS on Sunday and ESPN on Monday …

by n69hawk on Apr 25, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I figured with a little stat checking, I’d find that Cliff Lee’s control is miles apart from last year.

Well, kind of, in this small, small sample that is 2008.

First of all, here’s my favorite stat: He’s gone to a 3-0 count exactly ONE TIME in four games.

What I have not found is his percentage of first pitch strikes.

In 2007 starts, Cliff Lee threw a strike on 64.3% of his pitches. He made only four quality starts, and in those games he threw strikes 66% of the time. In his non-quality starts, he threw strikes exactly 64% of the time, and in his disaster starts (more runs than IP) he threw strikes on 63.8% of his pitches. No huge gaps there.

This year, in four magical starts, Cliff Lee has thrown strikes 68% of the time.

So he’s better - controlling at bats, throwing more strikes - but not by miles so far. Again, four starts, so whatever. But it’s pretty clear that he’s much more effective in the zone.

Once again, a scout could probably explain why. I can’t. Except that his fastball had some giddyup last night that I have not seen out of him in a while.

by tabler84 on Apr 25, 2008 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ERA+ Leaders (from Baseball-Reference.com)

Adjusted ERA+
Lee-CLE 1563
Greinke-KCR 365
Hernandez-SEA 250
Eveland-OAK 213
Bannister-KCR 183

by SanD on Apr 25, 2008 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’m jsut wondering what kind of pitcher he will be in the games where his fastball location isn’t there. If he is mostly going to throw fastballs like he has, I wonder how sustainable the strikeouts will be.

by Joe. on Apr 25, 2008 5:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I was wondering the same thing during the game last night – if I remember 2 of the hits from last night were on first pitch strikes. If Cliff is gonna pound the zone with fastballs, you’d imagine people will be ready for it and hit them hard. I would love to see him mix in some off-speed stuff.

You have no idea the physical toll that three vasectomies have on a person

by jakesinger777 on Apr 25, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs