Here's Why We're Still a Playoff Team.
I know we hate the offense right now. And I know we like the starting pitching. But do we know just how good the starting pitching has been? It's actually been slightly better than 2007 starting pitching, and remember: We suffered a similar swoon after the All-Star break and it was the starting pitching that wrapped the duct tape around our collective head.
So enjoy this, let it cheer you up, and convince yourself that our bullpen will once again develop a CofT.
Quality Start Percentage
2008: 59%
2007: 58%
ERA
2008: 3.78
2007: 4.18
K / 9 IP
2008: 5.8
2007: 5.7
Innings Pitched
2008: 6.1 per start
2007: 6.25 per start
BB / 9 IP
2008: 4.1
2007: 2.2
Overall Rating
2008: Proon-Correctingly Awesome
2007: Pronksmashingly Sweet
The biggest surprise to me was the K rate; Cliff Lee's world-beating April has made up for Fausto's anemic K rate.
The biggest red flag was the BB rate, but the spike is entirely the result of CC and Fausto's wildness. Considering that those two guys could have split the 2007 Cy Young, it's a pretty good bet that they'll return to better statistical neighborhoods.
Turns out that if we can enjoy any offensive bounce at all, we're going to be very, very good. We just need to flip that switch before too many losses pile up.
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FIRE Shelton!
NBR (No Borowski Run): Refers to that run which puts the Indians up by 4 over an opponent, thereby drastically reducing the chances of Joe Borowski pitching in a game.
by crazymoloh on
Apr 30, 2008 11:46 AM EDT
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You are of course correct. If you can remember back for the last coupla years we – like every other team – have gone through similar offensive black-outs before. What’s struck me most about the Shapiro-era Indians is their resiliency. Lose a starter of two to injury? Just reach down into the minors for a dominate right hander like Fausto Carmona. Your anointed second baseman stinking it up? Just call up Buffalo and have ‘em send the kid with the funny name that you swindled Bavasi outta.
This is kinda like havin the flu. No fun what so ever, but just ride it out – this too shall pass.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
by mauichuck on
Apr 30, 2008 12:20 PM EDT
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Keep on grinding, I guess. (I’m not disagreeing with you … really!).
by peter m on
Apr 30, 2008 12:50 PM EDT
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Except that everyone is Buffalo is sucking too. Also, replacing Barfield is a lot less trickier than replacing Cabrera AND Gutierrez, Hafner and Garko. 4 black holes is a might too many.
NBR (No Borowski Run): Refers to that run which puts the Indians up by 4 over an opponent, thereby drastically reducing the chances of Joe Borowski pitching in a game.
by crazymoloh on
Apr 30, 2008 12:50 PM EDT
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Gutierrez had a nice week, so there’s hope on that front. Even Asdrubal’s OBP is .35 for the team’s last 7 games, so you could argue he’s started getting on base a little bit more.
I do agree, though, that the hitters at Buffalo aren’t doing anything either, so it’s hard to see someone they can call up to help (maybe Choo when he’s off the DL, but who knows).
by peter m on
Apr 30, 2008 12:58 PM EDT
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Am I the only one who finds the hope in Choo to be misplaced?
by tabler84 on
Apr 30, 2008 1:03 PM EDT
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No. I don’t actually have much (rational) hope in Choo. I liked him a couple of years ago, but he’s been hurt so much it’s hard to expect he’ll be able to step right in and be even serviceable. Still, one can have (irrational) hope!
by peter m on
Apr 30, 2008 1:17 PM EDT
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Ahh yes, sometimes clinging to irrational hope beats having no hope at all!
by tabler84 on
Apr 30, 2008 1:19 PM EDT
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Nope, he’s an absolute, total wildcard. He could be our everyday starter by August, or out of baseball after this year.
by dgcambridge on
May 9, 2008 11:59 AM EDT
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I’m kind of hoping he looks terrible in rehab and they sneak him through waivers. I can’t see many teams claiming him fresh off a year on the DL.
by Jay on
May 9, 2008 12:57 PM EDT
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Excellent thought. Hell, they should bring him back early.
by dgcambridge on
May 9, 2008 1:09 PM EDT
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Guys … sorry to say, I had to take out a huge chunk of the discussion for profanity.
by Jay on
Apr 30, 2008 2:00 PM EDT
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letsgodeletedtribe.com
Make it happen.
by supermarioelia on
Apr 30, 2008 4:46 PM EDT
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All I could think was, “I can haz fifth option year?”
by Jay on
Apr 30, 2008 6:11 PM EDT
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No way can LOLDavis spell like that.
“I can haz fiff opshun yeer?”
by tabler84 on
Apr 30, 2008 6:55 PM EDT
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haha
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on
Apr 30, 2008 7:26 PM EDT
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Right now, I see a triangle of trust—Raffie L, Raffie R and Masa. They need at least one more, and have to have other guys they at least are willing to use occasionally in non-mop up situations.
What’s the scoop on Rich Bauer, at AAA—the PD drew my attention this morning to the fact that he’d actually been pitching pretty well. I looked over his career numbers and he looks like he was a mediocre middle relief guy for the Orioles for a number of years, then had a pretty good year for Texas in 06, then the minors last year (horrible in the Int’l League, good in the PCL). Is he someone they’re likely to try if they give up on one of their end of the bullpen bench guys? They’d have to make a spot on the roster for him, of course.
by peter m on
Apr 30, 2008 12:21 PM EDT
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I know we hate the offense right now.
Yeah, but a lot of us hated it last October, too. And what have they done in the meantime? When you’re as weak on the corners as we are, I don’t think you just “ride it out.” We’re closing in on the 40-game evaluation point that the FO is always talking about. I hope they do something this time, even if it means dipping into our starting pitching depth (which is awesome, I’ll grant you).
As for Bauer, he has good stuff, but he’s always walked too many guys. Still, maybe it would be worth bringing him up if it meant letting Jensen get “stretched out” in AAA. Let him start a couple of games, maybe. Sometimes that works.
by ken from alexandria on
Apr 30, 2008 12:55 PM EDT
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Good write-up. I agree overall, but I’m leery about getting too excited about things like K rates. Lee’s abnormally high rate doesn’t necessarily make up for Carmona’s low one. It’s just a problem of averages, i.e. if we have two guys with astronomical K rates and three with abysmal ones, our average will still be good, but we’re still more likely to lose 3 out of 5 days. Similarly, there’s no reason to be too concerned about the increase in BB rates as it’s mostly the doing of one outlier (Carmona) that’s brining up the average.
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on
Apr 30, 2008 12:56 PM EDT
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Our record sucks. We’ve been inconsistent. I’m a little sick of watching Hafner’s at-bats right now. However, when you think about it, this month is basically the same as we played in July last year—we were 12-14 that month, our bats were stinking it up, and it was frustrating but we were able to take it in the context of the season as a whole. When you have a month like that in April, it’s a little easier to flip out about it because there’s no greater context in which to take it. But I don’t really think this is a .450 team, the same way I don’t really think Detroit is a .450 team, or Florida is a .580 team.
Who knows what it’ll take, but I think most of these guys have it in them to break out & go on a tear & we can look back at this month & remember how we were all predicting the demise of the Indians & laugh.
(end irrational optimism)
Despite all of my best intentions, I have not, in fact, grown up to be a debaser.
by zempf on
Apr 30, 2008 2:04 PM EDT
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i said something to this effect last year during the offensive swoon, but this is huge for me – that pitching be the solid piece. if we were scrambling to find servicable starters or one injury away from a melt-down in the rotation and we were scoring runs in droves right now, i’d be a lot more worried. i feel like the offense is easier to turn around than pitching – particularly starting pitching. so, while it would be great to have all cylanders firing. i prefer the starters be okay. then the bullpen. then the offense. so if we’re stuck with something sucking, i just assume it be the offense. becasue despite how bad they suck, we still are in games. we could easily have won the last three. if our starters suck and we run into a good starting pitcher games can get out of reach fast.
by Brick. on
Apr 30, 2008 4:04 PM EDT
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I would settle for one cylinder firing.
by ken from alexandria on
Apr 30, 2008 5:30 PM EDT
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i don’t see how you can say the starting pitching isn’t working.
or, if this is ripping my spelling, well, that’s gonna happend. i spell sucky.
by Brick. on
Apr 30, 2008 5:46 PM EDT
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I should read, not skim. I thought you were talking about offensive cylinders.
by ken from alexandria on
Apr 30, 2008 6:42 PM EDT
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I opened for the Offensive Cylinders for a few dates during my solo acoustic tour.
by fleerdon on
May 1, 2008 4:52 PM EDT
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Not to mention we are only 2.5 games out of first with the otherworldly Cliff Lee on the mound tonight.
by SanD on
Apr 30, 2008 4:07 PM EDT
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Lee pitching tonight? I am now really happy.
by Voltaire on
Apr 30, 2008 4:11 PM EDT
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See? And now try to imagine yourself saying this with any sincerity last September.
by tabler84 on
Apr 30, 2008 4:15 PM EDT
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Only if I wanted some bullpen member to get the change to log lots of innings.
Man, I can’t wait until finals season is over. I haven’t been able to follow the Tribe, or visit LGT, nearly as much as I’d like. As in, frequently enough to have adverse consequences on my health.
by Voltaire on
Apr 30, 2008 4:29 PM EDT
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Every season is a unique snowflake. Kind of silly to compare one to another.
But yes, if this offense can heat up a bit, we can easily reel off a 19 win month like we did in May of last year. That’s what good pitching 1-5 can give you.
The key is going to be Dellucci/Carroll producing in the 2 hole and one of our bottom feeders (Gootz, Blake, Shoppach) to get hot (hitting +.300 over a period of time).
by Toxicadam on
Apr 30, 2008 11:58 PM EDT
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Tox, I’m not sure if you were kidding, but that last sentence is packed so full of wrong ideas, it’s really incredible.
First, this 2-7-8-9-is-key-to-scoring nonsense. I don’t know where it came from, but it makes considerably less sense than saying something like, oh, I don’t know, we need to work on getting hit by more pitches. Yes, that would make more sense than the 2-7-8-9 thing.
Next, Dellucci is already producing, more than any other position player, and it doesn’t matter much what hole he does it from.
Next, the so-called “bottom feeders.” Gutierrez is already slugging .600 over his last 10 games, and his OPS is the fourth-highest among our nine regulars – disappointing at 725, yes, but hardly a “key” to our improving. With Blake you have a little more of a point, but Shoppach’s production has been almost the same as Victor’s, 829 to 819 OPS.
Where can we improve?
As of tonight, Grady, Victor, and Gutierrez are all right around their career numbers for the season, and Peralta isn’t that far off. Dellucci and Shoppach are the only players who are a notch or two above their career numbers. These six are not the problem and can’t be expected to be dramatically better—thus not key to our improvement.
Garko and Blake have now fallen over 100 points of OPS below their career numbers, while Hafner is nearly 300 points below. These are our real problems, however sick of hearing it we may be, and putting their hitting back together, at least two of them, is the real key to our improvement.
Along with that, AbaCab’s 548 OPS is not something we can carry forever, and at the same time, we need to keep Carroll and Michaels’ trips to the plate.to a reasonable number. These would be secondary keys to our improvement.
by Jay on
May 1, 2008 1:01 AM EDT
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Well, I can’t argue there. Having Hafner back would cure a lot of what ails this offense and wouldn’t make us rely so much on these other peripherial guys.
But the fact remains that this team has a dramatic decrease in production (both average and RBI’s) in those spots when comparing wins to losses. A few series ago, it was almost 200 points difference and 25 RBI’s. I think some of it has to do with the fact that Grady/Victor/Garko and (in a negative way) Pronk are so consistent with their output that those other 4 batters become so key to our success.
Everyone also remembers that the two times our offense began to click was when Blake filled the 2 hole in May and AsCab filled it in August of ‘07. I don’t think it’s a coincidence.
by Toxicadam on
May 1, 2008 1:25 AM EDT
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Well, it’s a good thing we “all remember it” a certain way, because it would be a shame to actually look it up and possibly find it wasn’t really true.
Speaking of which: Grady and Garko, consistent this season? Have we been watching the same team?
by Jay on
May 1, 2008 2:23 AM EDT
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Ok Jay, whatever.
I prefaced my comments by saying ” a few series ago”. If you recall correctly Mr. Garko was hitting above .300 with a near .1000 OPS and while Mr. Sizemore is down in average and power his OBP (you know … the main stat for a leadoff guy!) has been around .400 all year.
But don’t let that get in the way of your E-warrior persona that ignores large sections of peoples comments just to nitpick certain aspects of their discussion they may have been wrong about. God forbid people have their own ideas and try to express themselves while you are busy waving your E-peen of destruction. So from here out, don’t get offended when I ignore your responses. I appreciate your knowledge of baseball, attention to detail and the talent you have for writing … but your conversational skills suck ass.
But, I do appreciate you not insulting me or my thoughts in this post .. you had an impressive streak going in the past few threads and thought it was just the way you addressed people
Also, when you are not busy defending the honor of a .077 hitter and extolling his 4 HR’s in Spring Training, maybe you can look up the 2008 stats for that “marginal” player Max Rameriz who is “too old” for his league. I seem to recall you having strong feelings of indifference for him in a previous thread.
by Toxicadam on
May 1, 2008 10:01 AM EDT
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don’t get offended when I ignore your responses
i will. that’s trolling as far as i’m concerned. post and igonre. post and tell people they can ignore you… both annoying.
by Brick. on
May 1, 2008 10:27 AM EDT
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What I wouldn’t give to be E-warriored on gin right now. This thread is a like a goldmine. Or a snowflake. A snowflakey goldmine.
by fleerdon on
May 1, 2008 5:07 PM EDT
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When I read Tox’s post above I immediately thought he was the Hungarian Mob. Mr. Soze is coming home. Uh oh.
by tabler84 on
May 1, 2008 5:30 PM EDT
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It’s real easy to play “gotcha” with predictions - baseball’s a bitch that way. I think you would have trouble finding examples where I ever criticized someone for having predicted something wrong. It’s just silly - as if any of us can really predict baseball. When it comes to credibility, we all sleep in beds of our own making.
But I’m intrigued by the “E-warrior persona.” I wonder, what persona does your character have in this fantasy? Are you an opposing E-warrior? Or a peace-loving, unarmed E-villager? Possibly an E-damsel in E-distress?
Look, whatever you may think, I genuinely did not enjoy calling you out more than once over the last 36 hours—as a rule, the most I ever enjoy calling someone out is once, not even that Yankees a-hole from last October. You’re a regular here, about as much of a valued “old-timer” as a three-year-old site can have, and I’ve always enjoyed your contributions, and I have no desire to scrape with or embarrass you, and I’ve already got a sparring partner in Chuck who takes up all my time as it is.
That said, when you’ve got the facts wrong, and then I show how you’ve got the facts wrong, well, it’s awkward, but am I really “insulting” you exactly? You made some broad, sweeping statements about our players, and you played it pretty damned fast and loose with the facts to support those statements. I think I’ve been pretty consistent for 2.5 years here in calling people out for that sort of thing.
Lord knows, the real, genuine facts are bad enough a lot of the time.
Everyone can have whatever ideas they want, but what’s not okay is when the facts are mis-represented. If you’re representing the facts accurately, the worst I’ll do is to disagree and argue my point. So you call a guy with 13 at bats “a .077 hitter”—that’s factual, I guess, only lacking context.
I will not be offended if you ignore my response, this one or those in the future. But I am reminded of this one time, many years ago, when Rogers Hornsby was my manager, and he called me a talking pile of pigshit, and that was when my parents drove all the way down from Michigan to see me play the game.
And did I cry? No. No. And do you know why? Because there’s no crying in baseball. There’s no crying in baseball. No crying!
by Jay on
May 1, 2008 6:33 PM EDT
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I want to be a sparring partner!
Put up your dukes!
Remember when I was valued for actual analysis around here for like a month back in 2006? God, those were strange times.
by afh4 on
May 2, 2008 12:16 AM EDT
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You and the CVS down the street where I bought my sudafed.
by afh4 on
May 2, 2008 12:38 AM EDT
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Shallow analysis warning:
I went by ESPN and looked at the ML top-50 in slugging. Not a single Tribesman. Pat Burrell is near the top of the list. Come on people, the freedom train is leaving the station.
by NickFantana on
May 1, 2008 4:21 PM EDT
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Meanwhile, they’ve won 7 of 10, including starts by starters #6 and #7. We’re gonna be OK.
by macasson on
May 2, 2008 11:27 AM EDT
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