Game Three: White Sox 2, Indians 1
by Ryan on Apr 4, 2008 10:35 AM EDT
in Game Recaps
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Highest WPA:
- Ryan Garko .190
- Jensen Lewis .136
- Franklin Gutierrez .055
Lowest WPA:
- Jhonny Peralta -.175
- Asdrubal Cabrera -.172
- Grady Sizemore -.145
Jake Westbrook pitched very well...except for two pitches. Normally two runs in 7.1 innings would be more than enough for the Indians' offense, but not today. The bats on both clubs were largely muffled, probably a product of a quick turnaround from the night before.
The biggest at-bat of the game came after the Indians scored their only run. After Nick Swisher misplayed a Franklin Gutierrez fly ball, the Indians had runners on second and third with one out. But Asdrubal Cabrera hit the ball right at Joe Crede and Ryan Garko couldn't score. Casey Blake then followed with a fly ball to end the inning. Joe Crede led off the next inning with a home run, and the Indians went in order the next two innings to end the game.
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Obviously one game is not much of a test of anything, but I wonder why Wedge put Peralta in the three hole with Hafner batting fourth. One of the ESPN commentators (I've forgotten which one) commented on this, and said that while Peralta had batted in that spot in the past, he wasn't particularly productive (certainly no more productive than he was batting further down in the order). Fortunately, Martinez is coming back it appears, so we won't have to worry about this for an extended period. But, it would have been interesting to try Garko in that spot. And, let's hope they don't lose Martinez for long, since they miss his consistency at the plate, especially against lefties.
I think it's time Grady was moved. In a case like this, where Vic is out, my ideal linup would be:
Gutz
Droobs/JMike
Grady
Haf
Garko
Peralta
Delucci/Droobs
Blake
Shop
Formerly known as "tribefan stuck in boston"
As for this old chestnut, I think it's pretty well proven that higher in the lineup=more plate appearances. Given that, I think we want our best player batting first. Furthermore, as GTE just mentioned downthread, Gutz is more of a either/or slugger/strikeout guy and until his OBP improves you want him clearing the table rather than setting it.
I think Sizemore as our leadoff hitter should be accepted as a beautiful fact of life and we should offer thanks daily that we have a real leadoff hitter as opposed to Juan Pierre.
Batting Order Positions
Split.............PA.....AB......BA....OBP..SLG..OPS
+-+------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---
Batting 2nd..9.....8....375..444...500...944
Batting 3rd 629 553 .260 .347 .439 .786
Batting 5th 269 240 .342 .438 .780 .337
Batting 6th 449 400 .288 .354 .413 .767
Batting 7th 220 198 .268 .324 .475 .799
Batting 8th 285 253 .249 .325 .356 .681
Batting 9th 286 262 .252 .295 .431 .726
Looking at the numbers, it actually looks like batting third is his best performance, especially when you consider that the slugging from the seven spot is probably a product of seeing better pitches due to the hitters ahead of him. Any decline in slugging caused by a move to the three hole is offset by an increase in OBP and Jhonny's speed on the bases makes him a better table-setter than Hafner.
Something weird going on with the 5th spot - It looks like that .337 is from something else, since .342 + .438 = .780.
It's a little copy and paste error. My bad. Speaking of which, it was really difficult to paste those numbers over from Baseball Reference. I had to do a few minutes of editing and leave all the other numbers out. On top of which, what I saw in the text box was not the same thing I saw when I clicked preview. Weird.
Here are his corrected numbers for the 5th spot, AVG, OBP, SLG and OPS.
.271 .342 .438 .780
I was looking at these same stats yesterday when I complained that Jhonny in the 3-hole just doesn't make me happy for some reason. It's so tough comparing his success in different slots in the order because the variables in each of those situations in ginormous (different years, different guys before and after him, etc.). The one thing I wonder if we can compare is how many pitches he tends to see when in each of the different slots. If he seems to take the same approach batting 3rd as he does batting 5th or 6th, then I don't mind him batting 3rd one bit.
by supermarioelia on Apr 4, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I recall Jhonny in 2005 being absolutely incredible in the 3-hole for us, especially during our massive hot streak the last 2 months.
'05 peralta in the 3 hole:
.288/.375/.512. in the last 3 years, his highest OBP was when he was hitting 3rd. his best numbers (ab = 174) are actually batting ninth - .293/.335/.506
my helmet has, like, no pine tar on it.
How, exactly, are his numbers at nine any better than at three? That .005 on the batting average does not make up for the deficits in both of the other categories.
I swear, next year is it.
That's one season in the 3 spot vs. career in 9, I guess.
At any rate, I can't think of less instructive splits than those taken from position in a batting order. I'm astonished these numbers are even available.
Sort of. Its not a career in 9, but '05 was his best year at 3.
to clarify, in the past 3 years, hitting in the 3 hole (553 ab):
.260/.347/.439
compare that to .288/.375/.512 (174 ab) in the 9 hole.
my helmet has, like, no pine tar on it.
I jest, but I wonder what the Andy Marte rules are? I appreciate Blake getting the opening day start against Buehrle but can Marte only start when we don't have either a ground baller or left handed pitcher starting and the other team has a left hander starting?
So what does that leave, Paul Byrd's starts when we're facing a left hander? So figure what 40 plate appearances?
Haha nice. We need to start putting these photoshops in one centralized place again.
by supermarioelia on Apr 4, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Right on. Either Andy Marte's a professional baseball player, or he isn't. Shapiro's made it clear they're not re-signing Blake -- "We're going to lose an infielder next year" was the quote -- so it's really going to frustrate me if Wedge continues to bench Marte and delays the inevitable.
by fleerdon on Apr 4, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
/plugs ears
LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA
In all seriousness, you're right, but even then re-signing Casey seems like a stretch to me. Admittedly I'm just tired of Casey. I get that he's done everything the team has asked him to do with positional changes and all, but that only goes so far. I mean, if I didn't do what my employer asked me to, I wouldn't have a job. (And I know I'm responding to arguments you haven't made. I'm just emoting.)
by fleerdon on Apr 4, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Why is everyone assuming that Hafner's gonna hit fourth? At some point, it Hafner doesn't snap out of it, they're gonna hafta consider somebody else to hit behind Grady and Vic. If I'm the opposing manager and I see first base open with Hafner on deck and two outs late in the game, I'm walkin' Vic to get to Hafner. But that's just me.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
Not just you. This pack of monkeys agrees.
by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Apr 4, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Even if old Hafner doesn't come back, he's still one of the 3 best hitters on team. You bat him at the top of the lineup.
Hafner had, by a whisker, the third best OPS+ on the team. I think that this is going to change, if it hasn't already, before the season is over. He's either gonna bounce back and have the best OPS+ or he's gonna continue where he left off in October and fall behind an improving Garko and a surging Gutierrez.
Managing a team well means managing based on the here and now, not on what usta be.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
Although you can't assume that he will continue to decline. His decline may be over, and he may now level off.
Really, this early in the season I would recommend not moving him around much. Let him get comfortable in a spot and ride it out unless another option is better.
Gutz for MVP
I see it differently. I think that you're doing Pronk a disservice by putting the pressure on him to produce at a level he hasn’t played at in almost a year. You can see it, I think, with every pitch. He's just trying too damn hard. I think that taking some of that pressure off and putting him in a position to succeed is a much better strategy. Bat him sixth or seventh, rest him against tough lefthanders and try to get him to relax.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
I don't disagree with that, but I don't want him to be moved around day by day or week by week. I don't really care what specific spot he hits in, but he should remain in that spot for a period of time.
Gutz for MVP
But by batting him 4th (or 3rd with Martinez 4th), are you really putting the pressure on him to be old Hafner? The average #3 and 4 spots in a MLB lineup last year put up about an 850 OPS. I think the disservice is not realizing that 2007 Pronk was still a middle of the lineup hitter.
"But by batting him 4th (or 3rd with Martinez 4th), are you really putting the pressure on him to be old Hafner?"
I have zero doubt that you are. There's a stigma of sorts to the 3-4 spots that makes it seem like they must be the best hitters on the team. By dropping him down he may not feel the need to be the best hitter.
But it could also make him stress him more if he's dropped down. If we drop him down I'd tell him that he's staying there whether he goes 0/27 in a week or 27/27.
You are right that 2007 Hafner is still a productive middle of the lineup hitter, but this is more about trying to get pre-2007 Hafner back. Why not put him at the six hole for two months as long as it doesn't hurt our run production?
Gutz for MVP
Interesting start to the Tigers/Sox game...
Bottom of the 1st: Thomas singles to start the inning, Polanco grounds to Uribe who for some reason tries to get the force at 2nd and threw it into left field. Guillen walks, Ordonez hits into a DP scoring a run, Cabrera walks, Renteria strikes out. 4 baserunners in an inning, one run.
Piertsirutsretski doubles to start the inning, even though Mags had a glorious chance to nab him at second but the throw was terrible. Quentin homers, and it's 2-1 sox.
Should clarify that Uribe wouldn't have had a chance to get the force even with a good throw.
by supermarioelia on Apr 4, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
hahaha tigers suck
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 4, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
8-5 Sox now. Detroit brought in Jason Grilli in relief, who threw three pitches: double to Konerko, single to Dye, 3-run homer to Pierzynski.
Five straight hits now off Grilli...and a wild pitch puts men on second and third.
by supermarioelia on Apr 4, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Rod Allen said Denny Bautista has "good stuff", just as the graphic was up showing his 2007 stats, including:
12.46 ERA
.429 OBA
Well, a pitcher may have great stuff but struggles with consistency. I have no idea if that's the case with Bautista, but it is possible.
Gutz for MVP
MLB.com has a pretty cool thing that is user-initiated. You text to MLBGO (65246), and in the body you put any team that you want an update from.
So for the latest Cleveland update, you go:
To: 65246
Indians
And then it will return:
Indians results for 4/3,
CLE 1, CWS 2 F
I like it because it is user-initiated and you're not getting pelted with updates. Maybe not what you're looking for.
so if I send this text at 5:30 tomorrow when the games in the 5th inning, it'll give me the score?
by ASP on Apr 4, 2008 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I use 4INFO (44636) for live sports scores. Just type in the league (e.g. mlb, nfl, ncaab, etc.) and then the team (e.g. indians, browns, ohio u, etc.). It's free and gives the inning and score or the winning and losing pitchers plus probables for the next game.
by FranklinScott on Apr 4, 2008 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
One of the biggest criticisms of Leyland is that the guys in their bullpen really have no defined role. No one knows who the long man is, no one knows who the close and late guys are...it's more like a Blob of Trust.
I think there is something to be said about forcing guys into tough situations early on and exposing them early, rather than later. If a manager is able to expose his relievers (instead of babying them), he is more likely able to force the front office into moving guys up or making mid-season trades.
Thank God the Tribe FO didn't deal with Fausto based on his 2006 "exposure".
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
Well, I think there is a large difference between a guy like Fausto and guys like Grilli, Oldberto and the like.
To tell the truth in 2006 I couldn't tell the difference between Carmona, Davis and Cabrera. You know young guys with great stuff who just couldn't seem to get guys out when it counted. Of course Hernendez didn't fit this profile at all - mostly cuz he was a good deal older - we were talking about young pitchers, weren't we - and had a track record that implied he might be able to get the job done - maybe.
This pitching stuff is real tricky. Who woulda guessed a fire-balling Cardinal woulda ended up a major league outfielder or that the son of a Yankee left-hander with questionalbe stuff would have a great game early in the season for a last place club?
That's what's great about baseball - it suprises you just about every day.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
I don't think that's the case. It's just that Leyland has nothing to work with in the bullpen. Absolutely nothing. I know Zumaya is out for half a year, but when is Rodney coming back? I heard something about him being out for a full year.
Gutz for MVP
Hm, I heard the Marlins upgraded their minor league system this off-season, maybe the Tigers could talk to them?
by cclemens31 on Apr 4, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
They said during today's broadcast that he "threw in the bullpen today". I have no idea what that exactly means.
by supermarioelia on Apr 4, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's the criticism I originally read from Bless You Boys.
by supermarioelia on Apr 4, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
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