Week In Review: March 31 - April 6
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 10:22 AM EDT
in Week In Review
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The series: Hosted the White Sox (win, win, loss) and visited the Athletics (loss, loss, win).
The news: Victor injured himself on the basepaths on Opening Day for the second straight year and was replaced in the lineup by Shoppach for the rest of the week, although he has pinch-hit. The Tigers, expected to compete in a tight division race with the Indians, opened the season with six straight losses, put new star Miguel Cabrera on the shelf, and got outscored 39-15. And in the biggest news of the week, manager Eric Wedge did not start Gutierrez on Sunday, sparking explosive bursts of existential angst as Indians fans everywhere try to make sense of a mysterious and inexplicable universe.
Post of the week: Now taking nominations.
Who fed it: Sizemore and Garko got off to superfine starts, posting near-identical lines right around .341/.442/.568. Carmona, Westbrook and Lee rattled off easy quality starts, collectively allowing just 3 ER over 21 IP. Perez blew a late-inning lead on his second batter of the new season but looked dominant in the next two games. Marte went 1-for-3. Absolute Best: Sizemore. Relative Best: Lee.
Who ate it: Sabathia tanked his first two starts – you might say he was 0-for-4 in quality start criteria – so that'll be the last time I write 800 words about whether he will or won't or should or shouldn't leave after 2008. Okay, probably not, but that's how it feels at the moment, anyway. Betancourt gave up seven hits in his first two innings, and he allowed more than one run in a game for the first time since September 2006. Dellichaels posted perhaps the worst week in the history of LF platoons, batting .050, which even a .20 walk rate can't redeem. Shoppach looked strangely uncomfortable behind the plate and allowed three passed balls. Finally, Gutierrez and Blake, after electrifying the faithful on Opening Day, combined for exactly one base hit, a single, in their next 28 at bats. Absolute Worst: Sabathia. Relative Worst: Blake.
UPDATE: JulioBernazard helpfully points out that Dellichaels' lone hit of the week actually came while Michaels was playing RF, not LF, and to make matters worse, Dellucci was technically a pinch-hitter when he was HBP. Taking these key facts into account, the LF platoon's production for the week was actually .000/.238/.000, and not .050/.269/.100 as previously implied. LGT-WIR deeply regrets this rare understatement. [Jay]
The other guys: We rocked Buerhle, Vazquez, MacDougal and Dotel but were baffled by Danks, Duchscherer and Eveland, three guys who collectively had 37 career starts coming into the week. Dye, Pierzynski, Bobby Crosby and Daric Barton all had big series; Thome hit two Opening Day home runs improbably off our lefty ace but forgot how to hit after that. Oakland had both Ryan Sweeney and Mike Sweeney in their lineup at one point, like some kind of very weird dream, Alan Embree and Keith Foulke in their bullpen.
False alarms:
- Royals and White Sox in first place.
- Tigers in last place.
- Sabathia and Betancourt being terrible.
- Shoppach fumbling.
Open questions:
- Pronk, or just Travis?
- New Jake or Good Old Jake?
- Why must C.C. be such a disappointment?
- Too soon for a Dellichaels death watch?
- Too soon for a Tigers 2008 season death watch?
- How healthy will Victor be this season?
- Can Cliff Lee really bounce back to be a pretty good pitcher?
- Can Carmona just continue being awesome without interruption?
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Yesterday's win was very lucky. The tribe didn't hit the ball hard, and scored all their runs (2), on two bloop hits, 3 walks and a misplayed grounder. I'm the biggest Lee apologist, and I thought he was extremely lucky. He survived by commanding his fastball, which is something that is questionably duplicated. Not until the 5th and the 6th did he even get a batter to swing at a curve ball. Everyone keeps wanting Lee to throw more curve balls, but if the batters don't swing at them, and they are not strikes, they really don't work.
False alarms and open questions
Perhaps the Royals AND Whitesox in first place would qualify as a false alarm, but would it be that strange if one of the two challenged for the central title? And along those lines, the Tigers will almost certainly hit themselves out of the cellar, but with that pitching, yeah, absolutely, the deathwatch has started. High expectations come with enough pressure, but add a six loss start to the mix in a tough division, and you have the makings of an unusually early noose.
Between Sabathia and Betancourt, I'd put Betancourt further into the false alarm category. I mean, would you really be that surprised if C.C. had a very average year?
Re: your last question, no. The false alarm is for Sabathia being "terrible." It would not surprise me if he had some injury problems and an off-year in effectiveness, ending up "very average" to use your words. That said, given the volatility of relievers and Betancourt's injury history, could we not basically say the same for him?
Re: your first question, it depends how you want to define "challenging for the title." If you define it to include the 2004 Indians, 2003 Royals and 2001 Twins, then sure. I think the talent gap between the Indians and Tigers and the other three teams is 10-to-15-wins wide. If both the Indians and Tigers struggle such that no team wins 90 games, it's conceivable that one of the other three goes on a tear and takes the title, as the Diamondbacks did last year.
But with two contenders so loaded, and no real weakling team to pummel opportunistically, it seems fairly unlikely. The only thing making it likely is the fact that any of those three teams could be the one to do it, and the Tigers' hold on having a competitive team is just so tenuous in terms of lack of depth and health.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
The Michlucci death watch can't start soon enough.
I mean, not only are their bats a hinderance. I'm beginning to think their defense is a liability too (Dellucci's arm and Michaels judgement).
Lucci at least has shown patience at the plate, but he offers zero danger of any type of power. Michaels is the opposite as he is an aggressive hitter who can give you some pop. But if these guys can't collectively hit .270 with a +.300 OBP. What the fuck are they doing here?
Juan Pierre?
An interesting idea for a trade. Granted there are obvious hurdles to work out, compensation, money thrown in to balance out his salary,etc but from a baseball point of view its an interesting idea. Around .300 avg and 50 or so stolen bases. There's worse things in the world.
At the very least it'd provide a lot of great debate about which statistics to value in a player.
by world dictator on Apr 7, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Last year, Juan Pierre had an OPS+ of .685. And that's getting the benefit of an adjustment UP from his unadjusted OPS of .684.
Free Andy Marte!
If we have to get help, rather than take on salary, I'd just as soon we broke open a piggybank and got somebody good.
by fleerdon on Apr 7, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
You know who might fit that bill? Pat Burrell. He had two dingers today (bandbox alert), he's OPS'ing 1.476 (after putting up a .902 last year) for the year and he's in the walk year of his contract. On the downside, he's on the hook for 14 million this year and has a full no-trade clause, who knows if he'd waive it, I'd guess yes.
Anyway, what about Michaels, Laffey and Hodges for Burrell?
Iron Nick, I had that same thought earlier. But I think Laffey and Hodges is too much to give up for a one year rental, even though Burrell is surprisingly sexy.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 7, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Way too much to give up
Yeah I totally agree, way too much to give up AND pay 14 million for.
Laffey and Hodges are future starters with the Indians. I'm especially relecutant to give up Hodges give our rapidly increasing need for a 3B sometime in the near future.
Though i think a package similar to that might be possible. Sowers, Fransisco,etc or Sowers, Michaels,etc?
by world dictator on Apr 7, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Pierre actually has his uses. It's just not useful for $9M per season, especially when Ethier and Kemp are the alternatives.
Still, he's among the best baserunners in the league. That doesn't show up in the stat line. Defensively, BP hates him, but Hardball Times thinks he stacks up A-OK compared to his contemporaries in CF. If the Indians had an opening in CF with absolutely nobody to fill in (I'm talking no Ben Fran, no Gutz) AND Pierre was only signed for another year or two, perhaps. But four years is a long time. Too long. Unless the Dodgers are eating $30M of the $36.5M he's still owed (they're not), I'll pass.
While Pierre may or may not be a great baserunner, he still needs to get onbase to show off that skill. His OBP numbers do not advocate that will happen now as he ages (he's now 30):
Year - AB - BB - AVG - OBP - OPS+
2001 - 617 - 41 - 327 - 378 - 89
2002 - 592 - 31 - 287 - 332 - 68
2003 - 668 - 55 - 305 - 361 - 94
2004 - 678 - 45 - 326 - 374 - 107
2005 - 656 - 41 - 276 - 326 - 84
2006 - 699 - 32 - 292 - 330 - 82
2007 - 668 - 33 - 293 - 331 - 75
I just can't see his walk rate improving where he'd be worth anything near his contract's worth.
Note, he has decent (not great) steal rates, but he has no power ... none. He might be ok as #2 hitter, but I doubt it.
Tox, I gotta flag you on the profanity. Everyone just agreed to the Ground Rules a few days ago when you signed up for the new site -- no profanity. Our enforcement of this rule is very lax when it comes to spontaneous outbursts in the middle of Game Threads, but please make no mistake as to the overall policy.
The new platform is set up to delete all Reply-to comments whenever any Comment is deleted, so deleting this means deleting the whole branch, everything above this post. So #1, please observe the rules, and #2, everybody, I would advise you not to invest much time replying to Comments with profanity, because your comments are likely to get swept away.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Pronk, or just Travis? He looks like Travis to me. In fact he’s trending down from last August. The boy’s so tight you couldn’t drive a 18 guage needle up his ass with a sledge hammer.
New Jake or Good Old Jake? I’m assuming you mean the pitcher and not the ball park. I’m a believer in Westbrook. That sinker coupled with a change up is gonna make him dominate for the rest of the season. In fact I think he’ll be the best number three starter in baseball.
Why must C.C. be such a disappointment? Contrat jitters? I dunno. As I recall CC credited his great year last year to learning how to back off a little. Maybe he needs to relearn that lesson.
Too soon for a Dellichaels death watch? No. If either Marte, Barfield or Francisco start playing major league level baseball, it’s all over for these two.
Too soon for a Tigers 2008 season death watch? Yes, but given two more weeks of this and the White Sox may turn into our number one rival.
How healthy will Victor be this season? He’ll be fine, although hamstring strains are worrisome for catchers. We can plenty of other stuff to neurose over beside Vic.
Can Cliff Lee really bounce back to be a pretty good pitcher? I’ve been waiting for this to happen for over a year. I think that a number of things conspired to blunt Cliff’s performance last year, chief among them his injury and Cliff himself. Provided he’s listen to Willis I think that Cliff will be the best number 5 starter in baseball.
Can Carmona just continue being awesome without interruption? Depends. If the opposition takes the Red Sox play-off approach to Fausto he could cool off. That sinker is rarely a strike so if the batter’s lay-off of it, or at least make him elevate it, he could regress. If they don’t it’s Cy Young award, baby.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
as I recall, C.C. always stinks up the joint in OAK. I don't think an AL West club can sign him.
by JulioBernazard on Apr 7, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not dismissive of his hometown jitter problems, but I think they likely would go away if he pitched there regularly.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Give me a break! Sabathia's been in the majors how long now? Could you possibly imagine uttering the words "hometown jitters" in reference to Josh Beckett? This goes bak to my point above. I'll even go a bit further and say that it wouldn't surprise me if C.C. has a "sort of lousy year." I just think that it wouldn't take much of a difference from last year for his ERA to end up close to five. I like him as a power pitcher, he has good movement on his breaking pitches and he's a lefty. But ultimately I just don't trust his control. That's why, despite Betancourt's increased workload, I see more downside for C.C. On the other hand, I see such great upside for Westbrook, Carmona, and even Lee (or his replacement) that I think the Indians could be successful if C.C. is average to kind of lousy.
close to 5? wait, seriously? I mean, no, really, what?
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 7, 2008 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I must concur with GFP - 5.00 ERA? What have you see nthat forbode such a thing. CC's highest ERA in a season was his first, 4.39 ERA. If anything, he might slide back to the low 4.00s to 4.50, but 5.00? Barring any sort of injury, he'll probably finish around 3.75-4.00 if he's mediocre and unlucky.
And how much updise are you seeing out of Carmona? His numbers can't get too much better than last year's unless you think he'll turn into Pedro Jr or early Dwight Gooden.
Well, part of what I'm saying there is just that it's a very fine line between making pitches that will yield a 3-something ERA and a 4-something ERA. Throw in some bad luck, a slump, minor injury, whatever and there you go. I guess what I'm getting at is that I think he maxed out last year. Now he may maintain/achieve that level again, but things could easily go another way and make his ERA look a lot different. And does anyone see him becoming a MORE dominant pitcher than last year? It's not like he's adding MPH at this stage of his career so, even if we assume that he improves his mental approach, we are talking about control here are we not? (For the record, I only said "close to five," but I may have been exaggerating the point a bit.)
As for Carmona, I sort of was assuming some regression when considering his upside. I think we would all agree that, since Carmona is not yet fully established, that another outstanding or even very good year would represent "upside." While there isn't much potential for literal upside/improvement after what he accomplished last season, I nonetheless think his potential to improve at this stage of his career is greater than C.C.'s.
"What have you see nthat forbode such a thing."
Other than last year's playoffs? Personal observation, that's all, not necessarily any stats to back that up. You could have said the same for Mark Buehrle going into 2006, BTW. And despite C.C.'s recent success, there's no denying that he's had more seasons with an ERA above 4.0 than below.
While it is true CC has 4 seasons over 4.00 and 3 under, you fail to realize he has been an average to above average pitcher in every season so far with a couple phenomenal ones. Use ERA+, it is a much better stat to see how he compared to the league - 102, 100, 122, 106, 104, 140, 143. No seasons under 100.
That to me is trending up, not down.
As for his playoff starts, it very well could have been fatigue, or he was pressing. But I don't consider it the start of his downward spiral. I'll take his brilliance over the past 2.5 seasons as a better predictor if you don't mind ... for now.
If he comes out and tanks the next 3-4 starts, then we can start to get worried. That would be more of a pattern than 2 back to back starts (one of which one is in Oakland where he always gets hammered, trying to do well for his family and homies).
I am not failing to realize anything. I would freely admit that he has been "average to above average" with "a couple phenomenal ones." And I cannot refute that he has been generally trending up, not down. I also don't think the playoff performance is the beginning of a downward spiral. I think he was tired, pressing, and perhaps, just perhaps not quite dominating enough to overcome those inevitable variables against a worthy adversary. I think he will come back to earth a bit this year and likely maintain generally above average numbers for several years after that.
Also, thank you for the stats lesson, but we were talking about ERA to begin with, so I just continued with that. I am sure there are MANY, MANY statistics which evaluate a pitcher's performance better than ERA.
So, you can take his brilliance over the past 2.5 years if you want. But I don't see him sustaining it.
I get that "in your gut" you see C.C. as about to flop, but regardless of whether it's October or April, it's foolish to read too much into one or two starts – especially in trying to predict what's going to happen over a period of many months. Here's my own bold prediction for that: some good games, some bad games, some time on the DL.
But what you're predicting goes far beyond anything that can be suggested reasonably within the objective facts – PECOTA has him beating a 4.20 ERA with more than 75% confidence, and beating a 4.75 ERA with more than 90% confidence. That means your "close to five" is tantamount to predicting a fluke collapse just as severe as Hafner's 07 if not moreso. For those not employed as professional evaluators or major league trainers, the term for this kind of projection is "talking out of your ass."
As for your over/under 4.00 argument, what does that have to do with "close to 5" anyway? 4.00 has been solidly above-average for Sabathia's entire career in the AL.
While he may face some fatigue issues, let's get the baseline right before we jump to conclusions. Sabathia is a pitcher in his prime, still just 27, and he has a 3.28 ERA over 77 starts dating back to his 25th birthday, and his combined ERA for the last five seasons, 2003-2007, was 3.68. Barring injury, it would be a real surprise for his performance to exceed either of those bounds by much over the next few years.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, first off, I never said I thought C.C. would flop. I just said it wouldn't surprise me if he had a somewhat disappointing year. Actually, I originally said that I would put Betancourt further into the false alarm category. Pretty benign really. If I had to make an actual prediction, it would be a lot more like yours. So, I'm not sure where the need for profanity comes in.
As for the over/under 4.00 argument, I was just using that to illustrate that C.C. is far from the type of dominant pitcher for whom a 4.50+ ERA would be exceptionally shocking. I mean, what did PECOTA say for Buehrle after 2005? And Buehrle didn't even get hometown jitters.
Two more things: First, I admitted I didn't have stats to back it up. So that's somewhat akin to admitting that I am talking out of my ass (at least here on LGT). But, as you are well aware, I know things.
Also, I wasn't really basing my assessment of C.C. on his performance this season, although that doesn't seem to be hurting my case either.
Yes, you know things, but the lyrics to "Red Barchetta" aren't that helpful in this case.
A 4.50 ERA from C.C. would be rather surprising, as was Buerhle's 4.99 in 2006.
Now then, tell me more about how Betancourt has less downside than Sabathia.
by Jay on Apr 8, 2008 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure what Beckett has anything to do with the subject. I'm just saying, he generally hasn't pitched all that well in Oakland, and the likeliest explanations are that it's a fluke or it's related to being in his hometown -- because the last few years, it sure shouldn't have had much to do with their lineup. And whether it's a fluke or a jitters thing, it's likely iron itself out if he's pitching there more than once a year.
You may see more downside for Sabathia than for Betancourt, that's a matter of opinion I guess. But there's no getting around the fact that reliever performances are inherently far more volatile, and Betancourt's track record is the far more volatile of the two, and those two facts are probably connected.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Somebody else correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't part of Fausto's problem in the ALCS a ridiculously small strike zone in at least one of those Boston games? Also! To be successful at waiting Fausto out, I think that the lineup not only has to have good hitters, but it has to have lots of them (i.e. Boston and Detroit). Even then, I still think Fausto can throw strikes that are pretty difficult to hit. Just ask Torii Hunter.....who has already started drinking for his hangover tonight.
Was Michaels playing LF or RF when he got the lone hit for the platoon? Are we still waiting for a hit out of LF?
Haha very good point. He was in RF when he got the hit.
by supermarioelia on Apr 7, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Jay, I don't know if you're planning on making this a recurring feature but I fully endorse it. This is great.
Thanks, guys. It does seem like a pretty functional format, so we'll see if I can keep it up.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
It seems like it might a somewhat transferable responsibility, like a good Game Recap. Only in the right hands of course. Although at this point, everyone's probably afraid of doing one because they feel like they have to top Andrew's season-opener. Which, incidentally, is my nominee for Post of the Week.
My mood has not changed as in your summary. I was quite worried at the start of the season, and I continue to worry - I'm probably at 5.3. Heck, I have been nightmares about Tribe bullpen implosions (giving up 24 runs in an inning!) and the Yankees running away with the AL for several days.
Does anyone know if a team has ever turned itself around after an 0-6 start? Or, has a playoff team ever lost 6 games in a row at home during the regular season?
Spidey
Jon Miller kept saying that the 1992 (?) Reds were the only team to do it.
But you shouldn't worry. Joe Morgan said that wins are overrated and that he doesn't buy into your crappy nerd statistics.
I think people are reading too much into the 0-6 start. Sure, it's good fun to think the Tigers suck, but if it happened at any other point in the season people would just write it off as a slump & not think too much of it. Then again, last year's longest losing streak for the Tigers was 5 games (longest for the Indians was 4), so maybe there IS something to it. Whatever, I know I'm going to keep enjoying watching them lose as long as it happens.
I agree that if it happened at any other point in the season people would just write it off as a slump -- which is exactly what it would be: just a slump. But the significance of this slump is precisely that it is happening at the start of the season. They haven't won a game yet either, so that makes it different from a mid season slide. It's a new, expensive team with high expectations. I think that's significant. Now, a win tomorrow would obviously change that a bit, but a win followed by two losses might kind of make them continue to feel more like losers than winners, wouldn't you agree?
I agree that the beginning-of-the-season-is-no-different argument is getting overplayed here. I think a six-game slide mid-season by a contender would also get a lot of talk.
The issue with a season-starting slump is that this is their Plan A, nothing has really gone wrong yet – Inge has outproduced Granderson's usual numbers – and eventually, things will. Plan A is supposed to look better than this.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm open to input as to the correct setting on the mood meter. I'm at 6.6, still fairly positive, because (1) a 3-3 start isn't anything to freak out about, (2) our biggest problems were guys I'm confident will do okay-to-great this season, Sabathia and Iron Rafael, and (3) we're three up on the Tigers. If the Tigers had gone 6-0, it would be hard for the mood meter to be higher than 4.0.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm always skeptical of early season records especially a week in. I remember starting like 13-1 and then missing the playoffs miserably. Or even more hilarious players hitting 3 home runs in one week but ending with 14 all year.
Weird stuff happens during the first week of the season. And as we've seen, baseball is a marathon and not a sprint.
Of course if you're a Tigers fan you'd better hope this is true.
by world dictator on Apr 7, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
'twas 2002
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 7, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
The mood meter is exactly and only a meter of mood.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Another question to ponder. Has Wedge warmed to the idea of playing younger guys? He's always shown some reluctance, but last year put Gutierrez and Cabrera into the line-up with good effect. This year, so far, he's stuck with Cabrera (despite some iffy work at the plate). But, he benched Gutierrez, not Dellichaels, saying he needed to watch some baseball (they ALL played like they belonged on the bench). And, he's hesitated to use Marte at all.
I still think that, in addition to getting pitching and having Hafner hit, working Marte, Francisco/Choo, Gutierrez into the line-up is really important to the Indians. I don't think they can win it relying on Dellucci, Michaels, and Blake to make big contributions. Think how the team really improved when Cabrera and Gutierrez played and played well last year. I really hope Wedge is patient with the younger players and gives them legitimate chances to earn regular at bats.
Well he played Barfield at second last year and you saw how that worked out. And Blake need play within hollering distance of league average and we'll be fine.
Nope, I'm sorry, I think that Wedge is putting the best team available to him on the field right now. Maybe by June/July we'll have a different outfield and somebody other than Blake playing third. Hell, it's even money that Astrubal gets send down by then. Let's just see who's doing what in six weeks or so before we start advocating any permenant changes.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
This is of course the all-time most popular baseball blog topic. I like our young guys, but as has been pointed out here many times, Marte, Francsico, Choo haven't shown that they can perform at the level that some of these vets have shown. There's still plenty of time - but the key I think is whether Francisco is better than of left-fielders right now. The answer is that it's possible, it's not a clear cut yes. Gutierrez is already getting his chance, and sitting a day here and there doesn't change that.
All of this is true, but the trick is to develop young players; give them chances to succeed and find out whether they can play. We know what level Blake, Michaels and Dellucci are capable of. My argument was that it isn't enough (although I'm willing to accept Blake as a useful utility guy who plays a lot in different spots). I'd like the Indians to find out earlier rather than later whether the younger guys can play. Having Marte play once a week against tough righties isn't the way to find out what he can do.
I didn't object to benching Gutierrez for a game -- he deserved it. But, so did Dellucci and Michaels. Why single out Gutierrez? I suppose it's because he's still capable of learning something new, which the others aren't at this point. I just hope it doesn't turn into a habit -- how long did we play Trot Nixon for last year? And, for what reason?
Barfield did start (too long) last year. But, he had a year under his belt so I don't think they expected him to become a developmental player (which is what he has morphed into). I don't think they saw him as a minor leaguer aspiring to establish himself, which is how they (properly) regard Choo, Francisco and Marte (and to an extent, even Gutierrez, although he's in a less tenuous spot, I suspect).
They didn't really have anyone else to play if they benched Barfield earlier. This year, our depth options for the middle infield are Carroll and Barfield, both of whom are much better options than Mike Rouse and Luis Rivas.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, which is why Cabrera and maybe even Peralta need to play well to keep their spot. I don't think they'll use Carroll as anything more than a utility guy, but if Cabrera falls flat on his face, they have Barfield in the wings. I think they'll wait a lot longer on Peralta, who is well-established. But, they do have some options now should he really regress.
I'm intrigued, too, by Andy Gonzalez, who's continued to play pretty well at Buffalo. He's clearly there for insurance purposes, but he's got more upside than Rivas or Rouse and gives them yet another option if they need help up the middle.
I'm not inclined to argue about this, but for what it's worth:
Minor league careers...
ANDY GONZALEZ: .261/.350/.363
MIKE ROUSE: .275/.360/.405
If you are not intrigued by Mike Rouse as a depth option, I wouldn't recommend holding your breath for Gonzalez.
by fleerdon on Apr 7, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm certainly not holding my breath, particularly not with the air quality around Cleveland. But, Gonzalez is a little younger (25 to Rouse's 26 or 27) and seems to have a bit more pop than Rouse. I'm just reacting to what I saw, not to long-term data, true enough. That Bill James thing he couldn't quantify?
I have a general sense that Wedge believes in using his whole roster and not letting anyone get too much bench rot. Gutierrez and Cabrera earned promotions and became co-equal options to the incumbents because the incumbents were terrible. They won more playing time purely with their performance (which probably means their scouted performances moreso than their numbers).
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes to this too, although I worry about Marte -- they've kept him on the roster only because they have to and it's pretty obvious that they don't have a lot of confidence in him.
That said, they also have a clear policy of leaving guys at AAA so that they can play, which, in turn, means the major league guys have to stink it up royally or get hurt for those guys to get a chance. I don't see them calling up Francisco or Choo to play left field as long as Dellucci and MIchaels hit better than Trot Nixon did last year (which isn't hard). Unfortunately for the Indians, my fear is that that they WILL hit slightly better than Nixon, making it hard to dump them, but not well enough to be really satisfactory as a regular platoon in left on a championship team. Kind of like Devin Brown on the Cavs -- not a bad player, but not one you want starting.
Choo is on the DL. He has to be called up at the end of his rehab, or get exposed to waivers if we want to send him down to Buffalo. He is out of options.
Timeframe seems to be mid-May, so by then hopefully Dellucci shows us one way or another (instead of just mediocre), or else we will rpobably lose Choo to somebody else. Am sure the Giants would claim him (depending on their 40 man roster having an opening obviously).
If you told me the Tigers would lose 6 straight and Todd Jones wouldn't be responsible for any of them, I would never have believed it.
Todd Jones is not the Tigers problem (although he's not great, obviously). Their starting pitching has been poor (as predicted) and their middle relief is also weak. Plus, they clearly miss Granderson. Let's wait and see how they do when he gets back before we get too slap-happy, although it's nice to see the arrogant struggle!
To be fair, I think everybody else has been talking about the Tigers more than the Tigers have been talking about themselves.
by fleerdon on Apr 7, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Pronk, or just Travis? I'm adjusting to the idea that they may be the same person.
New Jake or Good Old Jake? Ditto, but I'm leaning toward new Jake. And I like it. Was it just me, or did I see some curveballs along with that sexy new change-up?
Why must C.C. be such a disappointment? Perhaps I'm not remembering correctly, but hasn't he always been, a little bit? I know 2007 was a phenomenal year for him, but to my mind it's the first year his physical abilities and his actual performance lined up. So if 2008 is a more mortal year for him, I think that might be a bit of a return to form.
Too soon for a Dellichaels death watch? Moreso for Dellucci than for Michaels, I think. We still haven't seen the real Righteous D, and this organization doesn't take that sort of signing lightly -- 3 years, people. But Michaels ... like Casey Blake, I think Jason Michaels needs to be at the very top of his game to be valuable. If evidence continues to mount that he's at some other part of his game than the top, I think he becomes expendable right quick.
Too soon for a Tigers 2008 season death watch? It sets off all sorts of karma alarms for me to say "no," but as we're well aware from 2006, nothing can scuttle a season like a useless bullpen. I hope I'm the one worrying about this, though, and not the team. Our boys have looked pretty tight and joyless to me so far, save for Cliff Lee's self-satisfied smirk.
How healthy will Victor be this season? We've been very fortunate with Victor's health in general. It would seem unusual to me if he didn't miss some time here and there. But that's why we carry a Shoppachampionship-caliber backup, and it's why Vic can play first base.
Can Cliff Lee really bounce back to be a pretty good pitcher? He had it yesterday, that's for sure -- good zip on the fastball, and mixing in the hook and the fist more as the game progressed. Though Hegan questioned his mix against LH hitting, frankly I'm much more worried about Byrd, and I did not expect to say that.
Can Carmona just continue being awesome without interruption? Why not? I'd love to see Fausto bring back the four-seamer as the year goes on, though -- perhaps inaccurately, I think he was at his most lethal last year when he'd reach back and uncork one every now and then. Among the "sophomores," I think Asdrubal is the most worrisome presently. Those loopy uppercuts yesterday were Derrick Turnbow-ugly.
by fleerdon on Apr 7, 2008 2:18 PM EDT reply actions
So you'd play Vic at first, Shop at catcher and bench Garko. Me no likey. How about DH Vic and bench Hafner if Vic's hammy is tight?
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
i'm cool with that
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 7, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not advocating for one alignment over another, just pointing out that Vic's versatility and the relative competence of our second catcher give us some unusually respectable options in the event of a hobbled Victor. I agree with your general sentiment that Garko deserves the ABs more than Hafner at the moment.
by fleerdon on Apr 7, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
It's a real strategic imperative that we give Hafner a long rope. That said, we're not far from the point where it's clearly best to have Garko and Victor in the lineup, and Victor and Kelly on the field, against LHP.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
If Byrd's next two or three starts are like the last, what then? Is it over? Is the concensus deathwatch already on?
I remember APV's prediction in the preseason thread; his pitch speed data and the hGH revelations and his age have me expecting an imminent collapse.
Don't forget that Byrd was undone in part by some weak infield play. His start was not untypical of what he did last year -- lots of guys on base, getting into trouble after the second or third time through the line-up. I think they'll stick with him for quite a while unless he really starts to eat up the bullpen by lasting 3 or 4 innings. They're still waiting to see if Lee can be consistent, and Laffey and Sowers are still question marks. As long as Byrd can keep games close and pitch 5 to 6 innings a start, he'll be in the rotation (even if he's mediocre).
I tend to agree with peter, jhon. I doubt we finish the year with Byrd in the rotation, but in the absence of necessity, I suspect the organization will try to buy as much time for the young guys as possible.
by fleerdon on Apr 7, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
There's no deathwatch based on this one performance, which was poor but not a trainwreck -- he got into the 5th inning, he only allowed three runs. We had 50 starts this bad last season, and that was a very effective rotation overall.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't disagree with what you said, but I think jhon was hinting at ... what if this is an average 2008 Paul Byrd start? Does the comparative readiness of the Buffalo staff this year shorten Byrd's leash? I mean, it's one thing to replace him with Jason Stanford, and another to replace him with Aaron Laffey, no?
by fleerdon on Apr 7, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Totally agree, but with the proviso that jettisoning Byrd probably is permanent -- maybe they try him out as a long man but maybe not -- and therefore reduces the depth by one. So the health of starters 1-3 and 5-8 (including Atom) will a factor, too.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
No nominations for post of the week yet?
If Andrew's recap of Game 1 cum reworking of a timeless coming of age saga does not win, there is no justice.
"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.
Harry I thought you were a lawyer. You should know by now: there is no justice.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
That's why you doctors have such a poor opinion of lawyers, you can't see when we are merely being zealous advocates for the positions we support.
"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.
Post of the week generally will be reserved for Comments, not FanPosts.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
How does the rec system work for comments? Is there a possibility we'll start using that as a voting mechanism -- i.e., making "post of the week" a legitimate category?
by fleerdon on Apr 7, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
No, I will be deciding the post of the week in the guise of an enlightened despot, as advocated by Voltaire. But, like the good people of Florida, you are all free to vote as much as you want.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Good, because otherwise we'd have people comparing Weglarz to Prince Fielder in FanShots just trying to rack up votes. And we wouldn't want that!
by fleerdon on Apr 7, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sorry for the confusion. I thought that "Post of the week," would go to a "FanPost"
... and "Comment of the week" would be an accolade bestowed on a Comment
Silly me.
"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.
It's not silly, we've just been using "post of the week" as an informal thing for a long time, and let's be honest, as practical of a choice as it is, the word FanPost is pretty lame.
I think the recommend function is a perfectly good mechanism for recognizing quality FanPosts, and the platform gives the "award" automatically.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
My attempt
Pronk, or just Travis?
Travis. I don't know how sophisticated this is, but some of his cuts have been abysmal, and his pitch selection isn't what it used to be.
New Jake or Good Old Jake?
New Jake. He looked good when healthy in the second half last year and in the playoffs, so this shouldn't be a fluke.
Why must C.C. be such a disappointment?
He was a disappointment in the playoffs last year when all the talk was about him leading this team, and that same talk ratcheted up this offseason. He doesn't seem to handle media hype well.
Too soon for a Dellichaels death watch?
It's never too soon to bash Dellichaels. Let's trade CC for a left-fielder while he still has value if CC and Jake continue to pitch well.
Too soon for a Tigers 2008 season death watch?
Unfortunately yes.
How healthy will Victor be this season?
He'll be fine.
Can Cliff Lee really bounce back to be a pretty good pitcher?
My heart says yes, we're back to darkhorse Cy Young candidate Cliff Lee, but my head says no, this could be like that one good game he had last year before imploding again.
Can Carmona just continue being awesome without interruption?
With his non-sinker pitches getting better, why not?
Disappointed by the Indians since 1995.
by FaustosSinkingFastball on Apr 7, 2008 6:17 PM EDT reply actions
I think you bring up a good point here about Fausto's secondary stuff. Last year he threw 67% sinkers (compared to 57% fastballs for CC, for example.) While Fausto's sinker is uncommonly nasty, imagine how tough he'll be when his second and third pitches start rounding into shape!
BTW, I love Pitch FX.
Pronk, or just Travis?
I'm betting on the man known as Pronk more than the mortal known as Travis. I just think he'll relax, and find his comfort zone. He'll get going.
New Jake or Good Old Jake?
New Jake. His sinker and this new change up have the makings to be a deadly combination. He won't be our "best" pitcher but he'll be the best #3 in the AL.
Why must C.C. be such a disappointment?
Going through a rough patch. He'll straighten it out. No Cy Young this year but he'll give us 20+ QS
Too soon for a Dellichaels death watch?
God I hope so. Our LF platoon right now is embarrassing. However I'm doubting anything significant happening.
Too soon for a Tigers 2008 season death watch?
Yes, lets just enjoy the moment.
How healthy will Victor be this season? He'll be fine. Just like last year.
Can Cliff Lee really bounce back to be a pretty good pitcher?
You bet. I'd so rather have him, then Laffey, Sowers, and Paul Byrd. Cliff will eat innings and give us a competitive chance this year.
Can Carmona just continue being awesome without interruption?
If he starts to utilize both sides of the plate, then yes, if not he's going to have rough patches with patient hitters.
Week in Review
Dellucci: I think the FO will give this guy until Choo returns to show he deserves a roster spot.
Michaels: Cmon, this guy will start hitting, it's a matter of time. 2009 is Francisco's coming out party.
Haf and Byrd: Some part of me suspects these 2 are suffering some kind of post HGH degradation. It doesnt bother me, in that we have a lot of young talent that can step up during the season.
Shoppach: 3 passed balls? What is this, the Twilight Zone?
Summary: This is the team that won 96 games despite struggling offensively against young and part time starting pitching. These guys have shown mental toughness and it's a long season. Let's unclench.
That STO commercial with the midges and the drumbeat is amazing. Like the way they contrast the Yankees' collective whining and aerosoling with Fausto staring in at the plate, unfazed.
Most all of my thoughts have been touched on already, but what exactly is Barfield's status at this point? Let's say he continues to hit well at Buffalo - they're not sending down Cabrera barring a sophomore disaster of epic proportions. And we're stuck with Dellucci and Michaels, at least as bench players. So... Carroll's the odd man out then?
It's hard to imagine why they'd bring up Barfield unless either (a) he's not just good but dominating, like an OBP approaching .400, or (b) injury to one of the three major-league guys. They're not going to hurt their depth by jettisoning Carroll just because Barfield is doing "merely well."
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, until it gets closer to playoff time. At some point the question would have to be: is Barfield a significantly better bat of the bench?
Wow, it's just hard for me to imagine that is ever really going to be a question that anybody spends any time working on, but sure, let's go ahead and root for that to become a tough question.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah. Here's the better question: what happens if Barfield shows himself to simply better hitter than Marte? My bet is th other way sure, but ....
Again, why would we expect either one to provide an impact bat off the bench? The more likely scenario is if Marte's not starting, they start to wonder who they'd rather have to pinch-run. But Carroll is by far the most useful of the three off the bench, and if they have Carroll, how much should they worry about having Barfield instead of Marte?
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't phrase that well. I certainly wouldn't expect you to care about the #2 bat off the bench, if you don't care about the first. I was speaking more of long term plans. After all, Marte's purpose on the roster is to develop into a starter, no?
I was thinking more along the lines below. If Barfield reestablishes himself, they should move him- unless it's also accompanied by a Marte collapse. In that case, it brings up the question of the Great Infield Shift To The Left? In a contending season
? In Spring Training 2009?
Well, we have many months to see how that might shape up, but it doesn't appear that they're going to trade Peralta — really hard to get equal value for him for a variety of reasons — or ask him to learn 2B in the near future. That being the case, it may well be that our best defense deployment is Marte-Peralta-Cabrera, and not Peralta-Cabrera-Barfield as is often fantasized. No doubt Cabrera would be an improvement over Peralta, but Peralta and Barfield (at 3B and 2B) likely lwould be a signfiicant downgrade from Marte and Cabrera, so the net is a bad trade-off and, improbably, the conclusion that keeping Peralta at shortstop might really be the best thing to do.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
So then he's done, right? Realistically he isn't going to dominate as an offensive player, and Cabrera isn't going to lose his job to an injury, which means Barfield heads back to Buffalo as soon as Cabrera can play.
Well, it partly depends on all the other pieces on the board, of course, but yeah, I'd say if Peralta and AstroCab are stable, and if we get another depth option in Buffalo, then Barfield likely will be getting shopped. At the same time, it wouldn't take much for him to get a major league job again, and you'll note with Shoppach, the Indians aren't averse to keeping a solid-average guy on the roster as a bench player as long as he's still making peanuts. Barfield likely will still be making peanuts next season, so maybe he's just a really good backup and dope pinch-runner for 2009, waiting for his chance to play more.
by Jay on Apr 7, 2008 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions
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