A Minor Week (May 3-9) part 1

by APV on May 10, 2008 1:32 PM EDT

I'll try to summarize some the highlights and lowlights from the week that was in Akron and Buffalo (Kinston and Lake County coming later):

Buffalo (16-19, 3rd place)

This week: 5-1

May 3: PPD

May 4: Buffalo 6, Charlotte 4 (game 1) ; Buffalo 1, Charlotte 0 (game 2)

May 5: Buffalo 2, Syracuse 3

May 6: Buffalo 6, Syracus 3

May 7: PPD

May 8: Buffalo 8, Syracuse 1

May 9: Buffalo 4, Rochester 3

A good week for the Bisons, led by fantastic starting pitching and a nice debut at AAA by Michael Aubrey. Adam Miller had two starts...the first one was rough (3.2IP,11H,4R,1BB,4K), but probably looks worse than it was. All his outs either came via the K or the groundball (7). All of the hits were singles with the exception of a single double. His second outing was much better (5IP,3H,0R,2BB,4K). He was up to 85 pitches in that last outing and has now not allowed an earned run in 3 of his 4 outings since coming off the DL (short outings, though). Other fine starts were turned in by Brian Slocum (5.2IP,4H,0R,1BB,8K), Jeremy Sowers (7IP,3H,0R,2BB,2K), and Jason Stanford (6IP,4H,0R,1BB,3K). I wouldn't be surprised if we see Scott Elarton join the big-league bullpen sometime in the next month (presumably taking one of the phantom spots held by Mastny and Breslow). He had two strong outings this week and his season line now sits at 21.1IP, 17H, 6ER,5BB,16K, with a .218 BAA. With Mujica and Santos still looking erratic in Buffalo, Elarton might be the next in line (maybe that new 40-man spot?).

Offensively, Michael Aubrey has gotten off to a .360/.407/.440 start through 6 games, with 2 doubles, 2 walks and 3 Ks. It's obviously just a week, but it's nice to see anything out of Aubrey. If he still has a chance with Cleveland, he's got to show he can mash AAA pitching (I'm thinking something upwards of an .850 OPS) this year. Josh Barfield's still in the organization. And despite Chuck's prognostications to the contrary, Barfield doesn't appear to be playing his way to Cleveland anytime soon. He's currently got an 8-game hit streak going, so it wasn't a terrible week (8-28, 2B,3B), but that plate discipline he was showing in Spring Training appears to be wearing off. He hasn't taken a walk during that hit streak to go up against 7Ks. His OBP is now down to .299.

Akron (15-19, 4th place)

This week: 3-4

May 3: Akron 2, Bowie 6

May 4: Akron 5, Bowie 8

May 5: Akron 9, Altoona 4

May 6: Akron 1, Altoona 3

May 7: Akron 3, Altoona 2

May 8: Akron 1, Altoona 0

May 9: Akron 2, Bowie 6

Ups and downs, chutes and ladders...Chuck Lofgren began the season in fierce competition with CC Sabathia for worst performing pitcher in the system. Like the big man, he appears to have turned that around. He took a loss this week, but it was of the hard luck variety (7IP,4H,1R,2BB,7K). He's now gone consecutive starts with good K and BB numbers, and not nearly as many hits on balls in play. Lofgren's got a long way to go though before he starts looking like the best lefthander in Akron, let along in the Tribe's sytem. David Huff owns that title. Huff had his fifth straight impressive start (7IP,4H,1R,0BB,8K) and has not really had a terrible start all season. And for a guy frequently described as a "soft-tossing lefty", his 41Ks in 39IP, partiularly when measured against only 10 BBs, look mighty good.

Middle-infielder Josh Rodriguez , who got off to an atrocious start (.240 average in April, but under .200 for much of the first month) has been rebounding strong of late. This week he went 9-25 with a double, 5BBs, and 8Ks. He doesn't seem to have regained the power he showed last year (20HRs), but it's a start (oh yeah...he was errorless this week, too). Wes Hodges was also decent (7-23,2B,HR,2BB,5K), raising his season line to .283/.336/.504. Chris Gimenez may not have a defensive position, but he continues to hit (6-19,3 2Bs,HR,4BB,3K this week) and show an intriguing combination of power and patience. His line is now at .276/.434/.474. On the opposite end is Matt Whitney who, after a strong April (.277/.358/.447), has had a terrible May thus far (.143/.143/.229). The promotion to Buffalo was probably always going to be Aubrey's, but Whitney hasn't been helping himself any.

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Comments

Great summaries, as always.

I have to say that I was unnecessarily harsh on Huff during the offseason, where I routinely used him as the poster-child for my dissatisfaction with the way the Indians conducted the Rule 4 (1st-year player) draft. My bad. Time to find someone else to needlessly criticize.

OT: I tried to search for some of my dumbass comments about Huff from the winter, but it appears that the search function is down for maintenance and updating. I’m excited to see how the new version function.

by macasson on May 10, 2008 2:17 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

I think I said somewhere that I expected good things from Huff…

But anyway…to put his numbers in perspective, it might be useful to compare his AA debut with the Jeremys, Sowers and Guthrie. It’s easy to forget the degree to which Sowers tore up Akron as a 22-year old (70Ks, 9BBs in 82IP). Huff’s line actually compares quite favorably to it, with a higher K-rate and higher BB-rate. Guthrie’s line also appears fantastic at AA, but his extremely low K-rate (35 in 63 innings) should have been a warning sign. So Huff looks much more like Sowers than Guthrie, for better or worse given their current positions.

by APV on May 10, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Guthrie was also a lot older - he turned 24 the first week of that season - and his BABIP was something in the neighborhood of .230. But yeah, the K rate was the real warning sign. I don’t think the promotion to Buffalo was a mistake, because you want to challenge a guy, but obviously we’d be more skeptical if this happened again.

Sowers in 2005 and 2006 was about as good as you can possibly hope for out of a prospect, even a first-rounder, and that’s why I still think he’s the real deal—not an ace, but a major league starter. But after Carmona and Laffey and Sowers, it is nice to have a pitching prospect with a proper K rate for a change!

by Jay on May 10, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I think I recall that Rodriguez had a power surge late in the year, something like 8 homers in a week. So depending on if you think that is real, it may or may not be surprising that he hasn’t shown much power yet this year.

That streak was reminiscent of Peralta in 2004 at Buffalo. He hit 15 home runs for the entire year and 10 of them came in an 11-game stretch.

by TribeJay on May 10, 2008 2:31 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Hello everyone,

I’ve been quite busy of late, which is why I haven’t posted recently, but I try to keep updated as best as I can, and have still been following along with the Minors in the very limited free time I have.

APV – nice report again, as always. :-)

One other possibility to be called up (and the one I thought would be called up to replace Mastny) is RHP Rick Bauer – after Sunday’s outing, this is his line:

14 G/14.1 IP/7 H/1 R/1 ER/0 HR/8 BB/16 K, 1.90 GO/AO, .146 BAA, 0.63 ERA; Bauer is 31-YO.

While the BB rate is high, all his other numbers are quite solid, arguably, more solid than Elarton’s:

13 G/22.1 IP/18 H/8 R/6 ER/2 HR/5 BB/16 K, 0.96 GO/AO, .222 BAA, 2.42 ERA; Elarton is 32-YO.

Elarton’s BB rate is better, but that’s really the only advantage he has on Bauer, who has the better H, K, GO/AO, and BAA rates. While Elarton would certainly be considered, I’d think Bauer would have the edge (though I don’t recall if Elarton has to be called up by a certain date or we could lose him, though that could apply to Bauer as well.)

Just my 2 cents – no offense.

Again, great job with the report – keep up the great work!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on May 11, 2008 5:23 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

I wondered the same thing about Elarton. I think there is something in his contract, but can’t remember.

by peter m on May 11, 2008 5:40 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Hello peter m,

If Elarton alone has something in his contract that would necessitate him being called up by a certain date or otherwise risk losing him, I could see where he’d have the edge (though not a certainty, as I think Bauer has been more effective, outside of the BBs,) but if all is equal (and it rarely is, with contracts, options, and such throwing off equality in most cases,) I’d think Bauer would have the edge, based on all the reasons I stated above, with Elarton being the second choice.

In addition, while closing games at the Minor League level isn’t quite the same as closing at the ML level, Bauer has been mostly pitching in the 9th inning, unlike Elarton, who has been mostly used in the 7th-8th innings, which again could give Bauer a slight edge in terms of showing he’s been able to finish off games on a regular basis, which might convince the Indians he could be more able than Elarton to help in a middle to late-inning relief role, along with the fact his H and K rates are better than Elarton’s.

Just my 2 cents.

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on May 11, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I can’t disagree. I haven’t seen Bauer, but I was never really a big Elarton fan. I wouldn’t be surprised if either of them had a call up at some point, but I wouldn’t expect either to take on an important bullpen role for the Indians.

By the way, has anyone heard anything about Brendan Donnelly? Is there still a chance he could pitch this year (I recall some talk about August).

by peter m on May 11, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I think he starts throwing in August or something. I’m pretty sure, IIRC, that we basically signed him for next year.

by Voltaire on May 11, 2008 9:12 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Aubrey is not in Buffalo to hit his way to Cleveland (2 more doubles, another BB on Sunday), but I guess to make himself the option if Garko gets hurt.

Of if Hafner gets hurt, I suppose, although in that case they might even consider Toregas.

by dgcambridge on May 11, 2008 8:43 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

One more thing on Aubrey: I think a lot of people overplay the significance of AA versus AAA. In this case, for example, Aubrey’s move to Buffalo might have just been about Brown’s injury.

by dgcambridge on May 11, 2008 8:49 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Merit and opportunity go hand-in-hand. Neither AbaCab nor Garko hit their way into a big-league job, nor did Gutierrez. (Marte never hit his way out of one, either.)

Indians who unequivocally earned their big-league shot through their Akron/Buffalo performance: Victor, Jhonny, Hafner, Shoppach. Betancourt, Jensen, Laffey, Sowers, Mastny, Cliff.

Grady also did though it appears that he didn’t … he was recovering from an illness in April 2004 and had terrible numbers; his number from May through August were far better than the 790 OPS total.

by Jay on May 11, 2008 11:46 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

This is the first I’ve heard of Brown’s injury—looked on the Bisons site and saw he was indeed DL’d on May 2nd with a “left knee injury”. Can anybody shed some more light on this? Is this a major injury?

by mrich on May 12, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs