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40 game mark

The Indians are quickly approaching the 40 game milestone that Mark Shapiro talks about as the proper time to review the team's progress.  So, what will he conclude?  Here's what I'd say if I were in his position.  Maybe we can all help him out and tell him what our eyes are telling us? (he probably doesn't need the help, but whatever):

Starting pitching:  no problems.  Even CC has pitched better, and the "depth" guys in the minors have come through, and how!

Relief pitching:  spotty.  Lewis and Perez seem to have come around, Masa looks OK despite first batter  problems.  Betancourt has been inconsistent.  The team has to settle on a closer -- Raffie hasn't seized the job and JoBo's status is unclear.  Do they need to look at other options?  It really depends on Borowski's velocity.  If he can pitch adequately, they can probably muddle through with what they have, but if some depth falls into my lap, I'll take it. The rest of the bullpen has been irrelevant.

Hitting:  awful.  Too many guys not getting on base.  Can the problem be fixed by adding one hitter, though -- Shapiro has already said he doesn't really think so.  If I were Shapiro, I would be reluctant to trade a valued asset (Miller, Cabrera, even Sowers, although I could be persuaded on that one) to get one hitter unless that person solved a long-term problem (e.g., 3rd Base).  I would look for a deal that wouldn't cost me my most valued young players but would add a veteran right-handed bat with some power, probably in the outfield or at 1B (since guys at other positions would be harder to find and would "cost" me more).  I would continue, irrationally, to hope that Hafner will improve.

Defense:  no major concerns.

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First of all, regarding Raffy R, I’d have to see much, much worse from him to change his current role. Last night, Stairs led off with the weakest hit possible; I thought, at the time, that the Baseball Gods were giving him BABIP payback this year.

Regarding the offense, I don’t think we have to make a trade; I also doubt there is much available that is a decent value. But we’re also in a position to make the postseason again, and the 40-game evidence indicates we need more offense to get into the dance. I just can’t believe that every one of the main producers will have cliff-diving final numbers; that said, I’m not immune to trade offers right now.

Remember that in this sport, the postseason is such a short sample that simply getting in is good enough. Any team that qualifies for the post-season can win. The Red Sox and (usually) the Yankees spend their summers contemplating trades that would improve a specific cog during the playoffs. For us, it’s all about simply getting there and taking your chances.

by tabler84 on May 13, 2008 11:32 AM EDT   0 recs

I think we agree. I was trying to argue that a “big” panicky trade was a bad idea, but adding a guy at a reasonable cost wouldn’t be a bad thing.

by peter m on May 13, 2008 12:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re the hitting: Not to be a Debbie Downer, but when you split a double-header in which you get 18 scoreless innings out of your starters, there’s something seriously wrong.

I’d be a lot more sanguine if we had any bats in the pipeline.

We have Aubrey at Buffalo, though I’m sure everyone’s waiting for him to get hurt again.

We have Hodges at Akron. I saw him in Bowie recently and was impressed; considering our situation at 3b, we need to move him aggressively.

We have Weglarz, and maybe Mills and Rivero, at Kinston. That’s it, boys and girls.

Yes, I would trade Sowers for a decent corner bat, particularly a youngish one.

by ken from alexandria on May 13, 2008 12:23 PM EDT   0 recs

Your right. Its a two game sample, but really its a 38 game trend here. The Indians team EQA is .242. That’s second worse in the AL (only KC is worse) and only better than two NL teams (Was and SD). Its a very bad offense, we have the second worse EQR in all of baseball, and have scored 19 more runs than estimated (if I am reading the statistic correctly) according to baseballprospectus.

I don’t buy this “one guy isn’t going to fix the problem” theme. Replacing one of our worst hitters in the lineup with a very good hitter would make a substantial difference in the production out of that spot in the lineup. It’s improvement.

by hans on May 13, 2008 1:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The question is, what would we have to give up to get a “very good hitter” and how much improvement would that result in. To me, it would have to be more than just two or three additional wins to justify trading away players we see as “the future.”

by peter m on May 13, 2008 2:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I just don’t buy this argument for inaction because “it won’t be that much of an improvement” arguement, which seems to stem from the belief that changing one player in the lineup won’t improve the lineup. Who said that we are trying to improve the other players in the lineup? I want to replace the poor hitting player(s) with better hitting players. I can understand if you want to argue that there are thresholds (or in this case winshares or another similar stat) where marginal improvements aren’t going to improve a team enough to actually improve the expected win-loss record, but are hitters have been so poor that any player of substance that Shapiro would bring in would provide marked improvement in performance.

I also don’t think anyone is arguing that we should enter into a “losing” trade where we give up more than we receive. I think the advantage of working a deal well before the trade deadline is that you have less leverage against you. Our production out of the corner outfield spots and corner infield spots has been far below league avg. This is simply not acceptable for a contending team. Everyone says sit and wait for the offense to adjust, well what do you think our pitching is going to do? just as our offense regresses to improved numbers our pitching is likely to regress negatively (you think C.Lee is going to post an ERA below 1.00 all season?).

by hans on May 13, 2008 7:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: the hitting

Sabathia’s career OPS of .721 would place him tied for 4th among the current 25-man roster’s seasonal OPS.

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on May 13, 2008 1:49 PM EDT   0 recs

/whisper

...trade?....

by APV on May 13, 2008 1:56 PM EDT   0 recs

I thought Castrovince had a good point in the response to a recent mailbag question regarding the potential logjam at the 5th starter spot:

But I can’t help but wonder if Paul Byrd, who has struggled to keep the ball in the park this season, might find himself on the trading block at some point, given that his contract will be up at year’s end and Laffey and Sowers have both given reason to believe they can be successful up here. Just a thought.

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on May 13, 2008 2:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wishful thinking. He’s making $7 million-a lot of money even by today’s standards-and he has “struggled to keep the ball in the park.” What kind of return are we going to get for a guy like that?

by ken from alexandria on May 13, 2008 3:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not that we’re going to get a haul for him in return, just that he may be expendable at some point this season (for good reasons) and almost any return is a good return.

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on May 13, 2008 3:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Is $7 million a lot of money by today’s standards? Last year he pitched 190 innings and walked less than 30 guys with an ERA+ of exactly 100. $7 million didn’t seem like a horrible option to pick up for me.

Eric Gagne is making $10 million this year.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on May 13, 2008 6:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sure, but Aaron Laffey is making minimum wage.

by ken from alexandria on May 13, 2008 7:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Does that affect how much another team pays for Paul Byrd? Unless you’re arguing that they’d rather have Laffey. But sure, who wouldn’t?

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on May 13, 2008 7:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m just saying that what the Brewers are paying Gagne is not really pertinent, and that in trying to decide what “a lot” of money is, it’s all relative. And my original point was that trading Byrd isn’t going to bring back enough to jump-start the offense. We’re going to have to ante up, talent-wise, to do that.

by ken from alexandria on May 13, 2008 7:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

But no player is going to “jump-start” an offense. Bobby Abreu isn’t going to inspire 6 or 7 batting averages above .200.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on May 13, 2008 7:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Byrd has a 3.61 ERA, which is Top 20 in the league, and even before tonight he was in the Top 30.

Average-plus starters making the league minimum are basically not available, so they’re not part of the market and not relevant. By today’s standards, in the real market of available pitchers, $7 million is not a lot of money. In fact, you may not see any starter traded this season who’s making less than that.

by Jay on May 14, 2008 2:01 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

One of the cornerstones of Shapiros rebuilding was pitching depth. I don’t see why he would sacrifice that just to get some low A guys or another washed up veteran hitter (like a Kevin Millar).

by Toxicadam on May 13, 2008 3:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

At least for me, it hinges on their planned use for Atom. If he’s going to be bullpen help (if anything) at the major league level, then Byrd is unlikely to go anywhere. But if Miller is seen as a starting arm and Westbrook returns with no apparent lingering affects, then they’re 8-deep in the rotation, Miller being at the backend of any combination. If GMs call with interest in any of the bottom 4 of those 8, then I think Shapiro’s listening.

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on May 13, 2008 3:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Miller’s the next Shue, destined to take up a spot on the DL for the next five years.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 13, 2008 7:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Shue?

by Jay on May 14, 2008 2:02 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Fragile hard thrower who, when healthy has tremendous upside. Unfortunately, he’s rarely healthy.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 14, 2008 7:22 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh I see, I left off the “y” – oops, ya got m .

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 14, 2008 7:27 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Replace Byrd with CC and you’ve got something. I think I heard somewhere that CC’s contract is up at the end of this year. Maybe would could rent a hitter who’s contract also expires this year from a club that disparately needs pitching like – of I don’t know – the YANKEES. Let’s see, isn’t Abreu’s contract up at the end of this year? and Matsui’s? Now, plug one of those guys in our line-up for the guy with the worst ERA on our staff and I think you’ve got something.

But, alas, I don’t see Shapiro as having the gogliones to pull this off. Just a dream I guess.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 13, 2008 7:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Chuck,

Care to wager, starting today, which Tribe starter has the lowest ERA on the team? I’ll take CC.

by tabler84 on May 13, 2008 7:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

End of the year? Oh yeah, I got a six pack of your favorite on my boy Cliff.

BTW, I’m down here in Pine Bluff Arkansas about 10 miles from Lee’s hometown. Turns out Bernette (sp?) is also from down around here. You throw in the Upton brothers, Ankiel and Torii and there’s a whole shit-pot full of major leaguers from down around here. Which is a good thing cuz other than turn nerve agent into CO2 and water and sellin’ crack, ain’t much else to do around here.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 13, 2008 7:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I said starting today. As in, reset the stats and start now. I’m taking CC. You’re bashing CC in this thread, so care to take someone else?

by tabler84 on May 13, 2008 8:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m not “bashing” CC I’m callin’ it like it is. He does have the highest ERA among the starters, right? And Byrd is dealin tonight too. Nope I get it, but Cliff is just lights-out unconscious – no?

BTW, I see the whole hat-tipping, public-humiliation thing with Cliff as his answer to Clemens/Duquette confrontation when Dan said that Roger had lost it and then Clemens went out and reeled off four more Cy Young awards (insert lame steroid’s joke here). It was just what Cliff needed to stoke his fire. I truly believe he’s a different guy now.

So, you’re still on. A six-pack of POC – or whatever fru-fru brew you’re drinkin 0- if in the unlikely event that you’re right, that starting today, Cliff’s ERA is lower than CC’s at the end of the year.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 13, 2008 9:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It’s a bet, my friend. And I hope to buy that beer for you in our pregame World Series party. Wouldn’t that be something?

by tabler84 on May 13, 2008 10:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You’re forgetting crystal meth.

by odradek on May 13, 2008 10:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

STO (Drennan) was shopping a rumor that the Indians might make a trade with Colorado for Adkins (Atkins?) involving Laffey/Barfield. I didn’t hear the actual description of the rumor, so I’m reconstructing this. If it involves Laffey, I would not do this.

by peter m on May 13, 2008 8:15 PM EDT   0 recs

Discussed in the game thread. Pure admitted speculation by Buster Olney.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on May 13, 2008 9:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hallelujah.

by peter m on May 13, 2008 9:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I wouldn’t mind having Atkins for this year and the next couple. His has two more years of arbitration, so he won’t be cheap, and he’ll be 29 and 30 for those years. But Laffey? That’s too expensive.

But the Rox have Ian Stewart ready to roll, so it’s an interesting situation. And Baker might be available on the cheap.

The big bonus with Garrett Atkins is that we’d have a couple years of spelling mistakes and corrections to look forward to.

by dgcambridge on May 14, 2008 11:29 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The problem with Laffey is that his value is growing immensely with every start. A few months ago, he was just a decent major-league-ready prospect — valuable, but with significant risk attached. A few weeks from now, he may well be cemented as a bona fide major league starter, young and cheap, five-plus years under contract — basically, the most valuable commodity in baseball.

For a team’s long-term quality, there’s nothing better that can happen in a season than a rookie pitcher establishing himself as a major leaguer.

by Jay on May 14, 2008 1:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

We’re not going to get Delmon Young or Carlos Quentin in a trade. We’d see Millar, or Emil Brown, or Xavier Nady. Is that worth Sowers or Laffey? Fortunately Shapiro is smart enough to stay away from that.

by odradek on May 13, 2008 10:13 PM EDT   0 recs

Byrd and CC are gone at the end of the year, so there won’t be any trading of Laffey or Sowers. The only legit chip we have to offer is CC. CC won’t fetch much because everyone knows it’s a partial year rental. Nobody is prepared to outbid the Yankees at the end of the year and CC won’t take less than that. The Yankees wouldn’t offer much because they know CC is theirs at the end of the year regardless. Shapiro’s window of opportunity to bring in offense basically elapsed with the off season. The Tribe ship must right itself.

by elsandito on May 14, 2008 9:31 AM EDT   0 recs

And tell me why the Yankees wouldn’t give up a player in the last year of his contract – Abreu again – for a guy in the last year of his contract – CC. Next year they could sign Abreu back – assuming they want him back – and CC. They’d get CC for this year’s pennant drive and it would only cost them ~5 months worth of Abreu. I could see it happening.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 14, 2008 3:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What you’re proposing makes tactical sense, I just can’t see Shapiro shipping a stud pitcher to the Yankees unless he got back long term value. The Indians’ business model demands that sort of exchange. I’ll say this, I’d do the deal if the Yankees also agreed to take the albatross Hafner contract off of our hands too. And they could afford to do that.

by elsandito on May 14, 2008 3:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You’d rather have Abreu rather than CC for the 2008 stretch drive?

by dgcambridge on May 14, 2008 3:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

rather.

by Brick. on May 14, 2008 3:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m sure they’d do it in a heartbeat. But, why would WE do it? Our chances of winning depend on pitching. We have a chance to win this year and giving up CC would undermine that.

by peter m on May 14, 2008 3:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed. The problem is that Abreu would not make as much of an impact as C.C.

by Jay on May 14, 2008 3:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Remember, I said they would have to take on Hafner’s bloated contract too. We have the luxury of plugging Laffey into the rotation. Removal of Hafner’s contract from the budget represents a long term value to the org as a substitute for being handed young talent.

by elsandito on May 14, 2008 4:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If I’m trying to win this year, I’d much rather do it with a veteran pitcher than with a really young kid. What Carmona did last year was incredibly unusual. Laffey’s good, but is highly unlikely to duplicate that. Right now, the starting pitching is outstanding. It’s what’s keeping the team in the hunt. Why mess with it. If CC leaves, so be it. At least we’ll have a shot at the Series this year.

They need to improve the hitting somewhat but they don’t have to be the 27 Yankees; just get more than 3 runs a game on occasion!! I think they can do that without a huge overhaul . They need: a. predictable improvements from the players they have and b. the acquisition of perhaps one major league bat. I keep saying the latter won’t fix the problem by itself, but it will help (assuming that at least some of the guys who are below par (Hafner, Garko, Peralta, Blake, Cabrera, Gutierrez) get somewhere near what we had been expecting of them.

Nothing against Abreu, by the way. I like him a lot and would be happy to acquire him if the deal were right.

by peter m on May 14, 2008 4:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I just can’t see current management selling low on Hafner. However bad he may look now, he almost would have to look better in a few months.

by Jay on May 14, 2008 5:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

One more time: Hafner’s either coming all the way back or he’s gonna be outta baseball in less than two years.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 14, 2008 5:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

One more time, who asked?

by Jay on May 14, 2008 6:01 PM EDT to parent up   2 recs

And as you pointed out before, the large bet on Hafner is one that the Yankees can afford to make. The Tribe cannot. And as this bet is looking more and more like it’s a long shot, we need to crawl out from under it while the crawling’s good.

by elsandito on May 14, 2008 8:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sure way to fix Hafner: Trade him to the Yankees. He will hit 40 homers in Yankee Stadium (what’s left of it) and find a new spring in his step.

by odradek on May 14, 2008 6:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

We’ve got six, no seven major league starters. We’re doing it now with CC-lyte. We get Westbrook back and one of our starters has gotta go – either to Buffalo or trade bait. I say trade CC, keep Lee, Carmona, Westbrook, Byrd and Laffey. I’ll go to war with those five and ship CC for a bat.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 14, 2008 5:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Here’ an article from Ron Shandler at USA Today on when early season stats become meaningful. Here’s better commentary on the article and related work from the people at Inside the Book. FYI.

by APV on May 15, 2008 2:05 AM EDT   0 recs

from 2002-2006 the Indians were under .500 after 40 games; they are 4 games behind last year’s record

by palcal on May 15, 2008 2:26 AM EDT   0 recs

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