Marte sits, smart team gets dumber
You would think, as a stymied prospect, that the best place you could possibly be is backing up a guy who is the the worst-hitting starter in the league at your position, and one of the worst fielders as well — not to mention, he's in the last year of his deal, while you're with the team for the long haul. Hell, forget playing time, that other guy will be lucky if he doesn't get DFA'ed, right? Right?
No — not if you're Andy Marte. That other guy is apparent manager's pet Casey Blake — and let me emphasize, I really hate saying that, "manager's pet." I hate resorting to that kind of reductionist cartoon characterizing of players or managers, because it can keep us from seeing small moves for what they really are, and from working harder to understand the reasons behind large moves. But really, at this point, what is there left for us (or Andy Marte) to think?
And in a way it's even worse than that, because Blake doesn't have to sit to get Marte in the game. Blake plays a fine first base and is also a very capable outfielder, something the Indians seem to have forgotten. That makes five spots in the lineup that Blake could occupy — 1B, 3B, LF, RF, DH — and as it happens, the Indians have struggled to find production in all five of those spots, with the worst OPS in the league at 3B, the second-worst in RF, the third-worst at DH, and the fourth-worst in LF and at 1B. Not one of our regaular corner players (Garko, Hafner, Gutierrez and Blake) boasts even a meager 700 OPS, and even Dellucci and Francisco are putting up numbers that are merely league average, and below-average for left field.
So you would think, as a stymied prospect relegated to providing depth from the bench, that when your team is struggling at all five possible positions where you could indirectly or directly provide depth, that you would be getting a ton of playing time. But no. The Indians have shown no interest in playing Blake in the outfield this season, despite the fact that he's been one of the league's best defensive outfielders by many measures and one of the league's lesser third basemen. And yet, the Indians have been desperate to get offense, and Shapiro has admitted not having any real explanation or solution. They're willing to try anything, shuffling the batting order, resting guys in slumps, dumping Michaels for Francisco, even Jason freakin' Tyner, "the Neifi Perez of outfielders."
Basically, they're willing to try anything except giving Andy Marte a real shot. Which is odd, because just a year ago, they were willing to try that. Back in 2003, Brandon Phillips got 300 at-bats, starting 82 games out of 94. Just last season, Josh Barfield got 390 at-bats, starting 106 games out of 113. Marte, however, got just 39 at-bats and 12 starts last season before going on the DL, and he's never gotten another chance.
If the plan wasn't to give Marte playing time in the event of struggles at 1B and 3B and LF and RF and DH ... then what the hell was the plan?

By last week, even before the confusing Tyner move, the local media had noticed the absurdity. At a press conference to announce the un-big Francisco/Michaels moves a week ago, Shapiro was unexpectedly pelted with vaguely tough questions regarding, and I quote: "Is there a chance, like you're plugging in that young guy, I mean, for the heck of it, Andy Marte?" Shapiro responded that "what we're waiting for is for him to get the opportunity" and that maybe — maybe — Wedge would consider "playing some different guys." It was, frankly, hard to tell what he was trying to say, other than nothing. Shapiro seemed to be ducking responsibility for the whole affair, pretending that he and his subordinate Wedge aren't directly in charge of doling out the opportunities on this club.
Wedge did start Marte for both of the next two games at third base, with Blake resting for the first game and moving over to first base for the second. Marte did his increasingly familiar routine of playing very fine defense, often hitting the ball hard but only rarely getting an actual hit. The fans were amazed — could Marte finally be getting a real chance? Could the new plan be to get Marte two or three starts per week, maybe even four or five?
No. Wedge's new plan was to play Marte twice (possibly to placate the boss), then sit Marte in favor of Blake for the next few days, then get romanced in by a couple of clutch hits from Blake, and then possibly not give Marte any more playing time than before. Marte got a third start in seven days on Monday, but it seems likely that he only got it because of the rain-forced double-header — otherwise, he might have gone another 8-10 days without starting, rather than just five. As it is, he was lifted for Blake late in that game, for no strategic reason whatsoever, other than just liking Blake better. It sure as hell wasn't for his defense.
Marte's ten plate appearances this week were the most he's had in any ten-day period since last May. In the week Wedge used him the most, he still had less playing time than any position player except Jason Tyner, who has only been on the roster for one day. Marte already has fewer at-bats this season (22) than Ben Francisco (25), who has been on the roster only 12 days compared to Marte's 44.
So when Marte, famously a slow starter, came up to the plate in the first inning on Monday, bases loaded and two outs, in his first start in five days and only his 23rd trip to the plate in 43 days ... was there any doubt at all that he wasn't going to get a hit?
It would be fair for newer readers to ask, why all the fuss about Andy Marte — doesn't he suck? The fuss about Marte is that:
- We don't really know if he sucks, because
- he's never gotten a chance in the big leagues for more than a few weeks at a time, and
- we don't have any third baseman under contract for 2009 and only one solid but unspectacular prospect a couple years away, and
- Marte might just make for a totally decent option for some part of the next five seasons, and for dirt-cheap salaries at least through 2010, not to mention
- it's not like Casey Blake is actually good,
so it wouldn't exactly kill us to find out if Marte maybe doesn't really suck, would it?
Never mind what we gave up to get him — that's a sunk cost, it doesn't matter. What does matter is Marte's potential as a player, and since he's under team control for five seasons, without having to pay him free agent dollars, his potential value to the team is essentially five times greater. Even players who are merely serviceable as starters create a signfiicant hit to the payroll — Aaron Boone was making about $4 million as an Indian, and Blake is making $6 million right now. If Marte stays with the team, he likely will make less than $10 million total, for the 2008-2011 seasons combined.
Marte was once considered an elite prospect, consensus top 10 in the world, and what has happened since then has mostly been trades and injuries and being forced to spend a third year in Triple-A. Many prospects experience a jarring transition after being traded to a new organization, and Marte was traded twice in the same offseason. And Marte certainly would not be the first recent Indian to put up disappointing numbers when asked to repeat Triple-A an extra time — Ryan Garko and Brandon Phillips had almost identical regressions, but when they finally got their chance in the big-leagues, both proved that their first full Triple-A seasons best represented their true ability.
That won't necessarily be the case with Marte, but there's no reason to think it won't. Prior to the trades, prior to being asked to repeat Triple-A — twice — Marte had an impressive and consistent track record, succeeding in his first year at every minor league level, and at exceptionally young ages. Statistically, these are compelling markers of future major-league success — not just that he marched through the minors successfully, but that he did it in his late teens and early 20's, rather than in his mid-20's.
Marte's minor-league track record is better than Ben Francisco, Franklin Gutierrez or Ryan Garko's — his numbers at every level are as good or better than theirs, and he achieved those numbers at younger ages. Francisco's nice 2007 season in Triple-A, at ages 25? Marte posted the exact same OPS, 878, in his first Triple-A season at age 21. Remember how Garko tore through A-ball and Double-A in 2004, at age 23? Marte blew through those levels at ages 19 and 20 — and was a standout defender, too. Gutierrez spent the bulk of two seasons in Double-A, ages 21-22, and another two in Triple-A, ages 23-24, and never approached Marte's numbers at either level. Yet Gutierrez and Garko's opportunities on the big-league club have dwarfed Marte's, and Francisco seems to have moved ahead, too.
As for this season, not only is it a meaningless number of at-bats, but Marte obviously isn't being put into a position where he or any young player would likely succeed. The Indians themselves have said many times that it's a special skill to be able play effectively with limited playing time, and it's rare to find that skill in a young player who never got a chance to break in.
In the short term, at least, the only slightly reduced playing pattern seemed to work for Blake, who had a strong set of games following a couple of days rest. But even if we could agree that this is a strong strategy going forward — favoring what works for Blake over what works for Marte — at best, it just perpetuates the organization's failure ever to prioritize the long-term with respect to Marte, and ultimately with respect to the position of Third Baseman.
A year ago, when Marte was demoted to Triple-A just days after returning from the DL, apparently because Blake was getting hot, even Marte's partisans had to admit that playing the hot hand wasn't a bad idea. Marte presumably was better off sulking (possibly) in the Buffalo lineup than rotting (definitely) on the Cleveland bench. But everyone in the organization, including Wedge, should have understood when they used up Marte's third and final option year in that move, playing hot-hand now (then) meant playing the long-term odds later (now). Marte's shot at a starting job in 2007, yanked away before he had a chance to prove anything one way or another, should have been restored as an iron-clad rain-check for 2008.
Yet the team has not made good on that strategic trade-off, which seems to run head-long into conflict with the organization's fairly dogged leaving-with-the-guy-who-brung-ya mentality — and, apparently, with Wedge's increasingly notorious hard-nosed-guy favoritism. The favoritism that had him favoring the exceptionally replaceable Ramon Vazquez over Brandon Phillips. The favoritism that keeps him from calling out Ryan Garko and Travis Hafner by name for their horrendous failures, as he once did for a much younger Jhonny Peralta (whose main problem, it later turned out, was blurred vision).
Ironically, sophisticated fans who have been accustomed to enjoying the Shapiro regime's deeply savvy sensibilities — its lack of deeply stupid moves — are now forced to endure decision-making that is absolutely the same as favoring the likes of Darin Erstad or David Eckstein — moves those fans have had the luxury of ridiculing for years. How can it be that Shapiro, presumed to be cut from similar analytical cloth to Billy Beane, now leads a team following a course better suited to Kenny Williams, whom Beane openly called an idiot? Just five days ago, Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus was singing some of these very praises:
It's been so easy for statheads to like the Indians because they do so very many sensible things. They're stubborn about challenging players to rise to the level of their greatest value, whether that's with Cliff Lee as a starting pitcher, Victor Martinez as a major league-caliber starting catcher, or Jhonny Peralta as a shortstop.
Blake's highest value isn't a position, though; it's performing at a decent level with versatility, giving his team the option to use him in a variety of positions. The Indians used to preach the value of versatility, so what changed? It's yet another odd decision that seems to favor Blake's peace of mind over Marte's opportunity.
What's worse, what's best for Blake cannot be assumed to be what's best for the team. Blake has seduced us with strong weeks before, better than this one, and it hasn't changed his overall performance level. He had a tremendous opening two months in 2006, and a phenomenal two-week burst in 2007 — yet his OPS since the 2006 break is just 758, and since the 2007 break, it's 688.
It's unclear whether Wedge's decisions surrounding Blake are supported by Shapiro or merely tolerated by him. It's hard to believe, on the one hand, that Shapiro could be supportive of continuing to give Marte no significant share of playing time, which easily could be shared among seven players at five positions, given Shapiro's reputation for not being stupid. His comments from last week, though obtuse, did reveal possibly a hint of frustration at finding Wedge's predilections once again at odds with the team's strategic mandates going forward: "... we have a long-term need at that position as well. But, I think what we're waiting for is for him to get the opportunity this year ..."
But who is the "we" in "we're waiting for," anyway? Is it Shapiro and Wedge both, waiting for some unknown supernatural force to give Marte an opportunity? Or is it Shapiro and his front office staff, waiting for Wedge? If Shapiro were forced to restate that second sentence without using the weaselly passive voice — "we're waiting for X to give him the opportunity this year" — well, who or what else could it be that "we" are waiting for here, if not Wedge?
It's impossible to say whether Shapiro has a breaking point, some combination of conditions under which he would actually order Wedge to deploy his players in a certain way. That would be a very un-Shapiro thing to do. But then again, evaluating players based on wishy-washy characteristics rather than solid principles, doing the same stupid thing over and over again for months at a time — those are also very un-Shapiro things to do. When it comes to squandering a player who could be valuable to the team long-term, the record is still mixed, and the jury is still out.
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Nicely written. There is no reason to continue to sit Marte at all costs. 2-3 starts a week would be a fine way to find out what they have in him. And as you point out, Blake hasn’t exactly been tearing it up.
I wonder how much longer Wedge is going to get if the Indians continue to struggle.
by Cols714 on May 13, 2008 5:39 PM EDT 0 recs
I’m positively cringing seeing it all laid out like this.
I just wanna know why, man.
Disclaimer: this post doesn't mean what you think it means.
by AngG on May 13, 2008 5:49 PM EDT 0 recs
Once again, you’ve nailed it. Excellent post, Jay. Thanks.
by Jeffrey R on May 13, 2008 5:56 PM EDT 0 recs
Fantastic to see it all laid out here like this. And why is it impossible for any of the traditional Cleveland columnists to do so?
I think most of us disagree with the rationale behind Marte’s usage. The rationale behind Tyner, on the other hand, is beyond my comprehension.
Looks like a typo or two in the last sentence of the second to last paragraph (the passive voice one).
by dgcambridge on May 13, 2008 5:59 PM EDT 0 recs
I cannot believe Jason Tyner is wearing an Indians uniform.
by JesseAK on
May 13, 2008 6:07 PM EDT
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I know. Plus, if he gets elected to the Hall of Fame, you know he’s going to pick a Twins hat. So what’s the point?
by dgcambridge on
May 13, 2008 6:26 PM EDT
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we need to start rec’ing more. this gets one from me.
by Brick. on
May 13, 2008 7:31 PM EDT
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He promised the Indians if they signed him he would go in wearing a Wahoo lid.
by odradek on
May 13, 2008 11:59 PM EDT
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HIRE JAY!!!!
One thing I know Wedge is using for his doggedness is that Blake is actually leading this team in RBIs (sad, but true). But that is more a reflection on how poor the rest of our lineup is performing (Basically everyone but Vic tho still missing power and Grady who isnt lights out either)
Shap needs to sit Wedge down and tell him to play him 3 times a week at least. Then if Marte can’t hack it by July, then Wedge has his “data” to cut him. Until then we all just continually get frustrated.
by talonk on May 13, 2008 6:07 PM EDT 0 recs
The link to Blake’s THT’s fielding stats prompted me to check in as to how other Indians were doing. I was surprised to find Asdrubal second from the bottom in Revised Zone Rating.
by Jeffrey R on May 13, 2008 6:07 PM EDT 0 recs
This is an excellent summary of the entire Marte situation. I have read that Wedge and Shapiro work closely in every aspect of running the org. At times, it appears that they are at odds with one another, but I don’t understand how that can be given their supposed closeness. And, assuming this closeness, the two must have discussed the Marte situation literally dozens of times. I am operating under the assumption that Wedge and Shapiro have a concensus concerning this matter. While their conclusion defies rational thinking to us, either there is a deep flaw in their thinking or they believe they have information that trumps what we know.
by elsandito on May 13, 2008 6:30 PM EDT 0 recs
Excellent post, I wholeheartedly agree. I’m finally starting to understand the rules around here. Jay is the only person who can criticize the coaching or management without being run out of town. I’ll try to keep that in mind.
by mtbruer on May 13, 2008 6:36 PM EDT 0 recs
No no, you can criticize the management if you’d like, but you better have something to back it up with. A plain old Shapiro/Dolan sucks won’t get it done. And when you do provide the evidence, just don’t cherry pick stats either ;)
by talonk on
May 13, 2008 6:44 PM EDT
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That’s it exactly.
mbtruer, in the event you ever back up anything you write with any actual facts, or something resembling a thought process, I’m sure your views will be better received.
Also, you don’t appear to have been run out of town.
by Jay on
May 13, 2008 7:29 PM EDT
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Jay,
Even though I’m the resident Blake defender, I think this is (mostly) a good post.
But I think the (correct) point that talonk was making, though, is that there are lots of other hitting stats you could’ve picked where Blake would not have been at the very bottom—and a few like RBI where he’d be near the top.
by J83 on
May 14, 2008 8:59 AM EDT
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Of course, he’s not being selective by ignoring RBIs. It’s general practice around here, and with good reason.
by dgcambridge on
May 14, 2008 11:02 AM EDT
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I’m not advocating using RBIs. I’m simply stating that there are other stats where he wouldn’t be dead last.
by J83 on
May 14, 2008 3:31 PM EDT
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The larger point is that Blake in particular, and the collective of corner position guys in general, are simply not playing anywhere near well enough that Marte still should not have an opportunity.
by Jay on
May 14, 2008 3:33 PM EDT
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I agree with this. With so many people under-performing, there’s got to be a way to get Marte, Blake, BenFran, and Gut 3-5 starts a week with none being a true “starter.”
by J83 on
May 14, 2008 3:35 PM EDT
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Agree: Marte is only medium term solution.
Agree: Marte moves laterally better on defense.
Agree: Marte does not hit the ball well after sitting for a while.
Agree: Marte was definitely going to make an out with the bases loaded last night.
Disagree: Marte has a better minor-league track record than Cabrera or Garko (I’m appropriately weighting recent years).
Disagree: Marte got an extended try-out in 06 and failed to impress.
Disagree: Marte’s range is better than Blake, but Blake doesn’t let balls hit directly at him eat him up like Marte does. I’m sure this drives Wedge nuts.
The heart of the question is how many PAs does a contending team wish to spend on Marte to find out if he is useful? In a career 320PAs he is well below replacement level. Will 100 more tell us something? Or, as supposed by Jay, he just needs 100 to warm up, and then we need 100 more to find out if he useful? He could easily be a -2 to -3 win player with that many PAs. How many possible playoff appearances is one willing to risk to find out if Marte is a useful player?
by oxforddave on May 13, 2008 6:46 PM EDT 0 recs
I do think it’s worth the risk, because the only alternative is Blake. Blake is failing at this position; the 688 OPS fig post 2007 ASB proves it. Who really doubts that Marte can’t match that? Who thinks that Blake is the superior fielder overall? He’s our best best for /this/ season, nevermind following years.
by jhon on
May 13, 2008 6:57 PM EDT
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Dave, I take your point to be that Marte most likely sucks, and its not worth a contending team’s time to explore the small chance it might be otherwise. If that’s the case though, why would he even be on the team? Why not carry a proven decent bat that might help in a small number of PH opportunities? I think that’s what makes it all the more frustrating. Dave
by dgcambridge on
May 13, 2008 7:06 PM EDT
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Yes, Marte most likely sucks, but he doesn’t definitely suck. If Blake gets injured, without Marte we are looking at Andy Gonzalez or Jamie Carroll at 3B, and they definitely both suck. So Marte serves his purpose in depth. It is far from an ideal situation, but it isn’t terrible either.
Patience. There is a plan. It is not a great plan (like this organization’s starting pitching depth plan), but it is the best plan they have now.
by oxforddave on
May 14, 2008 2:14 AM EDT
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Dave, I won’t go ten rounds on this with you, now or possibly ever.
But the minor league stats thing, I have to be blunt. You would have to be willfully mis-reading the minor league stats, and also have a deep and fundamental misunderstanding of how to read minor league stats, in order to think that Marte’s minor league numbers weren’t equal to and generally better than Garko and Cabrera’s.
There is a reason he was given the starting job to open 2007.
by Jay on
May 13, 2008 7:19 PM EDT
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Minor league stats. Most stats for each player are accumulated at levels AA or better.
Cabrera (18-21) .283 .347 .415 + superior defense for a middle infielder
Garko (23-25) .293 .370 .488 + bad defense
Marte (18-23) .271 .348 .476 + avg defense
I have no idea how you say that Marte’s stats are clearly better. Sure, Garko is older, but he crushed the ball at Stanford. What is holding back Marte is his last 2 years of substandard performance at Buffalo. If you want to ignore his most recent years, feel free, but don’t call it logic.
by oxforddave on
May 14, 2008 2:08 AM EDT
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That’s because you got those numbers by looking at the bottom line of baseballcube, and forgetting to consider ABs, level, or, most importantly, age.
my helmet has, like, no pine tar on it.
by joeee on
May 14, 2008 3:03 AM EDT
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Age and defense are included in my numbers above. The thing is that Marte’s numbers have gotten worse with age. When Marte was 20-21, there was no comparison, he was easily the best. But that was over 2 years ago. I could have also added the major league numbers, and then Marte looks much worse.
As for reading minor league numbers. BA is knocked, and maybe rightly so in some instances, at the major league level. But I contend that you need to hit for average in the minors to be able to hit at all in the majors. Marte has never done that. It looked like he could when he was 20-21, but again, that was a long time ago.
by oxforddave on
May 14, 2008 10:28 AM EDT
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And so how do you account for his stratospheric performance - relative to age - a few seasons ago? Fluke? Do you think there were some hiccups in not only his performance since then, but perhaps also his health and handling? Are you content to throw him away at this point?
by tabler84 on
May 14, 2008 10:31 AM EDT
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Are you content to throw him away at this point?
No. See previous posts.
by oxforddave on
May 14, 2008 10:47 AM EDT
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From all accounts, college baseball is considered to be lesser competition than high A ball. Crushing the ball with an aluminum bat won’t do much to help your argument
by Roger Dorn on
May 14, 2008 7:41 AM EDT
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I’m pretty fired up after having read this. Could Andy not rotate with Hafner at DH as well?
by jhon on May 13, 2008 6:46 PM EDT 0 recs
how about Blake at 1B more often in place of Garko?
by still ill on
May 13, 2008 8:23 PM EDT
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His glove is above average at that position, at the least.
Unlike Blake, however, Garko has some upside.
by jhon on
May 13, 2008 8:47 PM EDT
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i’m just looking for a way to get Marte some ABs. if Marte could take a few starts from Blake and a few from Garko then he could manage at least 12 plate appearances a week without Wedge having to completely abandon any of his beloved white guys.
by still ill on
May 14, 2008 2:02 PM EDT
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The Disabled List just called ... it was trying to unload Joe Borowski. I offered a bagel but balked at giving up a ham sandwich. It wanted to keep Westbrook.
by westbrook on May 13, 2008 6:48 PM EDT 0 recs
Whether Marte starts tonight is not the point. They need a plan to use Marte consistently so they can find out what he can do. They don’t have one.
by peter m on May 13, 2008 6:48 PM EDT 0 recs
Marte is very consistent with the variety of things he can do with the bat. He can fly out to LF and RF and to CF. And if you ask nicely he can strike out also.
by oxforddave on
May 13, 2008 6:52 PM EDT
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I don’t think Blake has much ability to fly out to right field. But, the statistics may prove me wrong.
by peter m on
May 13, 2008 10:06 PM EDT
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You’re seriously basing your judgment on 22 ABs spread out over 39 games?
by emd2k3 on
May 14, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
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I can’t get beyond the question ‘WHY?’ in this issue. I have a healthy respect for Shapiro and a reasonable amount of respect for Wedge. I don’t think either of them is completely obtuse, and therefore I don’t believe that Marte’s benching is a result of their reasoned analysis of what gives the team the best chance to succeed. I also refuse to believe that Wedge would play Blake and sit Marte merely for reasons of favoritism or a preference for “grit,” and if he did I don’t think that Shapiro would stand for it. The arguments for increasing Marte’s playing time are obvious and, I think, undeniable, and yet it doesn’t happen. There’s something else going on here, something we’re not privy to and haven’t been able to figure out. I have to believe this in order to continue to have faith in the organization.
by Fiddlesticks on May 13, 2008 6:56 PM EDT 0 recs
I agree with the Wagnerian here. The situation is ludicrous, and our speculation about favoritism, etc.— while amusingly spiteful—doesn’t really seem credible. There has to be some private justification for not playing him.
by odradek on
May 13, 2008 10:30 PM EDT
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I just hope that the ‘justification’ does not run parallel to the vasquez/phillips decision-making – what Jay called Wedge’s hard-nosed guy favoritism. That is my only true worry. Fortunately we have the eventual outcome of the Nixon/Guttierez situation to draw on from last year.
by macasson on
May 14, 2008 12:25 PM EDT
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Nixon/Gut may be what Shapiro means when he says they want Marte to get a chance to play: that he has to force the situation, much as a fighter has to unambiguously whup the champion to win the belt.
by odradek on
May 14, 2008 6:02 PM EDT
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The Nixon/Gutierrez parallel is nonsense — I mean, the idea that Gutierrez “forced the situation.”
After his last callup on May 31 last year, Gutierrez played in 12 games in the next two weeks — he started six games and was a late-inning replacement in six others. They were giving him a lot more regular playing time than Marte — and what was his line up over those two weeks?
.136 average, .174 OBP, .409 slugging.
So he didn’t “force” a damned thing, they just decided to see what he could do with more playing time, rather than watch Nixon do his damage out there.
So in response to his mediocre hitting but fine fielding, they decided to give him more playing time, rather than less. He appeared in 23 of the next 30 games, starting 16, and at it was only at that point, after they kept playing him in the face of poor performances, that he “forced” anything. He put up an 1100 OPS over those 30 games, and after that, it didn’t matter if he was kind of lame at the plate for the entire second half.
And keep in mind, they gave him these chances with less to go on from his minor league performance than they have had with Marte. Gutierrez, after almost four years working on his swing in Double-A and Triple-A, still never hit as well at either level as Marte did at age 20 and 21.
by Jay on
May 14, 2008 6:26 PM EDT
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agreed. i see the outcome as reason for optimism, regardless if gutz/marte force the issue or nixon/blake force (via underperforming) the issue.
that may 31st date may not be entirely arbitrary. bit of a stretch, perhaps, but marte’s time on the bench and gutz’s time in AAA are not too different (in-game at bats not withstanding) and it’s quite likely that the focus – from wedge – is to give blake (like he did nixon) two months (or so) of roughly full-time action. time will tell if blake’s leash runs out similarly, thus providing marte with the opportunity that gutz had last year (with less merit). i’d much prefer interpreting it from the blake-needs-two-months angle than from the marte-has-to-earn-it silliness, given that he can’t possibly earn it by sitting. (even if giving blake two months is kinda silly.)
of course, this does not explain why blake hasn’t seen time in the outfield or 1B . . . but, shoot, i’m trying to seeing the logic here and desperately trying to understand this very odd situation.
by macasson on
May 14, 2008 6:39 PM EDT
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I really agree with you across the board — including the part where it all makes sense until you realize that Blake could have been playing anywhere, and they’d rather give time to Francisco and even Tyner rather than Marte.
by Jay on
May 14, 2008 7:09 PM EDT
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This is exactly where I am. I don’t know if I’m ever going to get over this “But why?” feeling.
Disclaimer: this post doesn't mean what you think it means.
by AngG on
May 14, 2008 12:30 PM EDT
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I guess this is what gets me on this – I have yet to see a reasonable explanation or rationale as to why Marte should be sitting. Generally, with this FO, I can at least graxsp what direction they’re coming from on the decisions that they make.
This one continues to elude me.
by The DiaTriber on
May 14, 2008 12:32 PM EDT
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This is why I was so irate after Shapiro’s last press conference on this and tried to get someone to do an Andy Marte/Incredible Hulk photoshop job. Why? Why is he not playing? Give me a reason and I’ll listen…but it just doesn’t make sense.
by APV on
May 14, 2008 1:24 PM EDT
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All I can come up with is either the party in the Tribe FO that was in the “Marte camp” has soured on him to the point that nobody’s pitching for this guy to get in the lineup or that person (the pro-Marte camp leader) is no longer in the organization…and could be in Pittsburgh.
It just looks like such a organizational disdain for all things Marte that it confounds, knowing what we all know about the 3B situation past this year.
by The DiaTriber on
May 14, 2008 1:36 PM EDT
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man. when they offer blake a two-year extension at the all-star break this board is going to flip.
by emil minty on May 13, 2008 7:21 PM EDT 0 recs
This post was good enough to get me up from my computer swearing and ranting and raving. I am pretty sure it raised my blood pressure.
Jason Tyner, people.
by NickFantana on May 13, 2008 7:33 PM EDT 0 recs
i’m just depressed about this.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 13, 2008 7:39 PM EDT 0 recs
I’m going to do something that I never thought I would do – defend Casey Blake.
I agree definitely agree that playing Marte for the long-term makes sense. The defensible position that Wedge and/or Shapiro can make, however, is that Blake is getting it done for the short-term goals of winning the World Series in 2008 (from a purely offensive perspective).
I thought about this as “Doing the best you can in the opportunities given to you” type of thinking. I am going to post in more detail once I get a bit more comfortable with a stat I just made up, but I started by wondering about how Casey Blake could possibly be leading this team in RBI.
(1) Turns out he has the greatest opportunity – % of Plate Appearances with RSIP. Blake has had 32.5% of PA with a runner on 2nd or 3rd or both. The team as a whole, thru May 12, has had 26.4%. Top 5 are:
Blake [40 of 123 PA = 32%]
Carroll [22 of 70 PA = 31%]
Looch [31 of 103 PA = 30%]
Droobs [36 of 123 PA = 29%]
Hafner [43 of 149 PA = 29%]
(2) However, Blake has also been among the most EFFECTIVE in those opportunities. I am playing around with this idea of generating a positive Win Probability Added (WPA) per plate appearance (PA). Using the play by play from FanGraphs, I basically looked at the situations where Blake had RISP AND generated a WPA greater than or equal to zero – thru a hit, walk, whatever. My reasoning being that if he left the situation with as much or greater likelihood of winning than when he entered it, it was a decent PA. I made up a name of +WPA rate.
Turns out that Casey is doing quite well in this measure (compared to other Tribe players). Top 5 on the Indians, who are generating a +WPA rate of 0.435 as a team:
Sizemore: 0.615
Victor: 0.533
Casey Blake: 0.525
Droobs: 0.472
Dellucci: 0.419
Hafner: 0.419 (tie)
Again – I’m not sure what all this means, because I just did this today, just for the Indians, and I want to bounce the concept off people here to see if this stat already exists in some better (already calculated) form, and/or if people find it to be useful or legit conceptually.
But like it or not Casey is driving runs in, both because he has the opportunity and is taking advantage of those opportunities with good AB that increase the probability of the team winning. If you say that he’s going to regress or whatever over the season, you can believe that. But I don’t think the A’s are going to stop playing Emil Brown because of that – they want to win today. And I think Wedge/Shapiro feel the same way.
Blake breakdown on the 21 positive WPA events in those 40 PA:
3 BB
6 1B
8 2B —(impressive)
1 HR
2 Ground out
1 Sac Bunt
As a final point, the numbers for Marte are:
26 PA ; 7 PA with RISP (27%) ; +WPA rate of 0.143 (worst on the team) Small sample size noted.
by steincat on May 13, 2008 7:42 PM EDT 0 recs
Blake has seduced us with strong weeks before, better than this one, and it hasn’t changed his overall performance level. He had a tremendous opening two months in 2006, and a phenomenal two-week burst in 2007 — yet his OPS since the 2006 break is just 758, and since the 2007 break, it’s 688.
QED.
by Jay on
May 13, 2008 7:49 PM EDT
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A strong week is one thing. He’s been the third most productive person on this 2008 Indians team (which has played 1/4 of the season). How far do we need to go into the season before he’s legitimately considered a positive addition to the offense.
I don’t care if he is using HGH, if he got LASIK, if he is lucky as hell. As long as he’s producing, I don’t buy the argument to sit him.
As an aside, Jay – I think this and most of your points are well-written and salient. I also agree with the need to balance long-term and short-term needs. But in a lot of ways, Casey Blake is carrying this offense right now. I feel like people on LGT tend to discount that because of the greener grass that’s sitting on the bench.
by steincat on
May 13, 2008 7:54 PM EDT
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Should read “helping to carry the offense” – I in no way believe that Casey is the Atlas holding the club in contention.
by steincat on
May 13, 2008 7:55 PM EDT
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Well – that is why I made up this WPA rate. It bugs the hell out of me that Casey Blake is leading the team in RBI while his OPS is 82.
But when he has a chance, with RISP, to affect the game and drive in runs, he has been effective. At least, in my world, with my made up statistics, he has. And at some level, I think you ride the horse until it can’t go anymore.
Maybe that’s unfair to Marte & his development and getting him 100+ PA, but a win in May is worth as much as a win in September.
by steincat on
May 13, 2008 8:04 PM EDT
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