i thought we were big fans of questioning pitching changes? I know that prior to last year, I thought Wedge did a terrible job with pitching changes. Last year I thought he did very well. This year..eh….

i didn’t mind the pitching change so much. what bothered me the most was how wedge did all the “NL-style” things last night. The double switch resulting in Carroll hitting 2nd in the 9th inning was a head scratcher. I didn’t like using Gutz when he did, especially bc it meant that the 2nd best defensive outfielder would not get a chance to field. The combination of Dellucci staying in left and the inane no doubles defense resulted in the winning run. If i am gonna second guess Wedge last night it is that. Having a not-that-great LF playing a step in front of the track with a RHP facing a LHB seemed dumb, especially in a smallish park. Isn’t the ball flight we saw the more likely outcome in that matchup than a smoked line drive over Dellucci’s head or a smash down the line?

I looked up Votto’s hit chart on mlb.com, and it looks like he hits the ball more to left field at home (but there are no splits vs LHP/RHP on it, and i couldnt figure out how to view his whole season hit chart). That might have played into the decision. And it probably makes this comment a classic, pointless second guess. Sometime’s it’s just fun to complain

I had the same thought, but after looking more closely at the box, it’s not so clear. Perez had already faced six batters — and he wasn’t totally cruising, he gave up two solid hits to the outfield (I think).

So leaving him in means that he’s going L-vs-R against one of their best hitters as his 7th batter, presumably with the goal of getting him to the lefty coming up next (Votto). While Perez has been effective against righties, he’s more effective against lefties, so leaving him in to face R-L-R-L as batters 7-8-9-10 is at least not much of a percentage play.

The bigger issue is that Wedge doesn’t feel he can go to another lefty. There’s a leverage paradox here - once Julio is done, you can’t win without getting nine more outs - but there’s a tendency to push hard to go scorless for the next six outs, because otherwise, the last three outs might not even happen. It’s the whole Torre/Rivera thing, i.e., why bother saving your best pitcher for a certain scenario if your second-best pitcher can’t get you there?

I would argue that throwing your best guys out there in the 7th and the road is essentially a lot like playing for the tie, and you don’t do that on the road. Wedge hasn’t had to use his middle relief corps much, but when your starter only goes 5 IP, that’s what happens. So we should have seen something more like this:

Julio: Phillips, Votto, Encarnacion (R-L-R)
Breslow: Dunn, Bako (L-L) and then wait for Reds to send up righty PH
Lewis: PH Ross, Friel, Hairston (R-R-R)

Now ideally, you’ve gotten six outs out of those eight batters, so it’s already the end of the 8th. If Lewis is cruising, you could even leave him in to face Griffey and Phillips. More likely, though, this is the time to put in Perez, your best lefty and one of your best high-leverage guys in general:

Perez: Griffey, Phillips, Votto, Encarnacion, Dunn, Bako (L-R-L-R-L-L)

Now you’ve still got their best righy up against the lefty Perez, but he’s a lot more fresh at that point.

Now, I’m not saying that Dunn and Bako are trivial hitters, but if you can’t trust your second lefty to face two lefties down in the batting order, then why use that lost bullpen spot on a lefty at all? Why not have a righty that you trust just a little bit?

Anyway, my main point is that if you’re willing to put Breslow in for those two batters, the rest of the bullpen management becomes really easy from that point on.