Game Twenty-Nine: Indians 3, Mariners 2 (11)

by Ryan on May 2, 2008 12:53 PM EDT in Game Recaps

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Paul Byrd	.540	David Dellucci	-.248
Asdrubal Cabrera	.479	Rafael Betancourt	-.182
Travis Hafner	.233	Casey Blake	-.152

This was one of those game which would have been devastating had the Indians not won it. Paul Byrd pitched into the eighth inning, allowing no runs. Of course, the Indians only had a one-run lead, but there was only the matter of Rafael Betancourt pitching the ninth. Right?

Well, the run wasn't really due to Betancourt's pitching. Ichiro singled to start the inning, but after that it was the Cleveland defense that pushed the run home. Betancourt first threw a wild pitch, which if you've seen Rafael pitch you'd be shocked at. Then Ichiro attempted to steal third, and Victor Martinez got off a good throw. Too bad we'll never know if he would have thrown Ichiro out or not, since Casey Blake didn't catch the throw. The ball went down the third base line, and just like that the game was tied. Victor's feed was slightly off-center, and Blake tried to catch and tag in the same motion. Even if Ichio is safe, he's still on third, and given how both offenses hit, it was not a given that they'd get the runner in with less than two outs.

So the game went to extra innings. Enter Masa Kobayashi, who on the first pitch of the inning grooved a fastball to Richie Sexson, Now the Indians were down 2-1, and Seattle closer JJ Putz started to warm in the bullpen. The same guy who lead baseball in WXRL last season (Betancourt was second). As it turned, it wasn't a good game to be a very good reliever, for Putz struck out Travis Hafner to start the inning, but then allowed three straight base runners to load the bases. Then he walked Grady Sizemore to force in a run and the tie the game. He struck out Casey Blake and David Dellucci to extend the game, though.

The Indians won the game in the eleventh in a similar fashion off of Mark Lowe and Sean Green. After Victor Martinez flied out, Jhonny Peralta walked, Travis Hafner doubled against the no-doubles defense, and Jamey Carroll reached via a HBP. This time, however, the big play came with two outs. Franklin Gutierrez struck out, leaving everyone to gnash their teeth at the probability that the Indians would leave the bases loaded again. But Asdrubal Cabrera lined a single to right and those depressing thoughts evaporated quickly away.

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mood meter at 6.7

by Toxicadam on May 2, 2008 12:58 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

according to the PD and other game recaps Wedge’s mood was pretty terrible. I don’t know if my mood went up or down with this one. The hitting is dreadful. We finally figured out why Hafner moving down in the lineup may be a very good thing for him, but is not necessarily good for the team: we don’t have other options. Dellucci has been our best hitter this year. I guess that means he bats 3rd. But Sizmore Blake Dellucci makes me think “spring training game lineup”, not “championship!”

by DaytonDogg on May 2, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Hafner moving down in the lineup may be a very good thing for him, but is not necessarily good for the team

Huh, what? Getting Hafner back to being Pronk is not good for the team? What am I missing here?

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 2, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

sorry, you are right long term, of course. My point is that a big reason Wedge probably wasn’t quick to pull the trigger on this move is that we didn’t have a clear option to move to the top of the lineup. If Garko or Peralta were showing flashes of last year, it would be a lot easier. Instead we are forced to put some crappy/struggling hitter in the 1-5 spots, because we simply do not have 5 hitters playing above league average right now.

Again, I do agree that this is good for the team in the long term, especially if it works in getting Hafner back to Pronk form. But, it won’t help us win games now if he is simply replaced at the top of the lineup with someone else hitting .210 and OPSing in the .600’s.

by DaytonDogg on May 2, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Dellucci OPS: .829
AL league average OPS: .729

by odradek on May 2, 2008 7:17 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I was referring to Blake. Dellucci was already hitting in the 2 hole a lot, so that’s not such a big deal. Blake moved from #9 to #2.

by DaytonDogg on May 2, 2008 7:45 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Okay—you’re right. But we have three guys above league average in 1-5 spots. I presume even the Royals and White Sox have that.

by odradek on May 2, 2008 10:45 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Glad to see other teams also fail with that miserable no-doubles defense. Man, it drives me nuts.

by oxforddave on May 2, 2008 1:07 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

I came away from that game with mixed feelings.

On the plus side: a. another good start; b. Hafner and Garko hit the ball; c. Cabrera had a couple of good at bats at the end.

On the negative side: a. they reverted to offensive ineptitude; b. Casey Blake; c. shaky bullpen.

They had enough good at bats against the bullpen in extra innings to win the game. But, the offensive problems are still there. I don’t really like the top of that line-up: I’d like to see Dellucci bat second, Garko third, and Blake moved down.

by peter m on May 2, 2008 1:12 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

and Blake moved down.

To Buffalo or Akron?

by SuddenSam on May 2, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I’m not particular. Buffalo—less likely I’d go to a game there.

by peter m on May 2, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

So, now that everything has calmed down, could someone please tell little old me, who has only been able to glance at box scores for the past week, the million-dollar question:

WHEN did Blake shave the beard???

by Voltaire on May 2, 2008 1:13 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

i think during the yankees series.

by Brick. on May 2, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

The beard is still there … it’s just invisible. So is the power of super utility.

by emd2k3 on May 2, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I’d recommend the post-game wrap-up at Lookout Landing if you’re in need of a few laughs…beginning with the title content and comment #1. Part of the reason I enjoy beating the Mariners is that the folks on their blog are pretty funny. I think you’ll appreciate their “artwork”.

by APV on May 2, 2008 1:14 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Research question. Has Wedge ever attempted a squeeze play? The situation often comes up where the tribe has a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs and a run will win the game. Wedge never bunts here. He will bunt a guy to 2nd, but he will never bunt a guy home. Is there a way to look for this in baseball-reference. Is there any quotes on why Wedge won’t squeeze?

by oxforddave on May 2, 2008 1:30 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

We don’t play in the National League?

by emd2k3 on May 2, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I know the tribe is not in the NL, but last night, there was 2nd and 3rd, 1 out with Carroll at the plate. Put on the squeeze! worst case is that you then have 2 outs and a guy on third, which we had anyway (twice) when the batter struck out).

Apparently Wedge has made the determination that it is a bad percentage play. I don’t think it is even in the playbook. You know Soicsia would do it as needed.

by oxforddave on May 2, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

scocsia is an idiot

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on May 2, 2008 4:33 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

C’mon now, let’s be fair. I know Scocsia small balls it up with the likes of Ozzie, but he has won a World Series and been to the playoffs the majority of his tenure. And yes I understand they have a monstrous payroll, but there is something to be said for delivering on a payroll and talent otherwise the Mets and Cubs would be in the playoffs every year.

by Roger Dorn on May 2, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Sciosia, in a way, is an amazing manager. If you are going to play the small ball style, he is the best. They won a series through great pitching and the like, But, they have studied this stuff. I believe the Angels have lead the league in going from first to third, and scoring from second on singles for several years. They steal like crazy and they’ll bunt in all kinds of wacky situations. It really is an exciting brand of baseball. They also put more emphasis on defense. The result is one of the most consistent winners in the league. Averaged something like 92 wins over the last 4 years. Its a different way to do it, but its very effective, and I have no qualms calling Sciosia a great manager.

by DaytonDogg on May 2, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Agreed and the argument I see a lot on this site is how much do managers matter? Well maybe they don’t matter very much, in which case the only way we can judge them is by their record in a sense. So hate on La Russa or Scioscia but they coach consistently solid teams.

by Roger Dorn on May 2, 2008 5:16 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

It’s all about the Ws bro – the Ws.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 2, 2008 5:39 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Managers might not mean a ton, and I think record is a little bit of an unfair way to judge them. However, think what would happen if Wedge was given the Angels roster. What would happen if Scioscia became our manager? Would Wedge send Figgins 60 times over the course of the year? Would he reign him in? Would Sciosia consider Peralta worthless as a slow, unathletic middle infielder with moderate power?

by DaytonDogg on May 2, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

i think if Wedge had Figgins, he’d be happy to let him run and bunt, and if Scioscia had Jhonny he’d be happy to see him hit line drives to right center. (He certainly wouldn’t sit Peralta down so he could play Erick Aybar.) You go with your horses. The idea that Wedge is keeping Carroll from running wild seems misguided. If we had faster players we would run and if Scioscia had more power he would let them hit homeruns.

by odradek on May 2, 2008 7:25 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

And if worms had daggers then birds wouldn’t screw with ‘em.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 2, 2008 7:27 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

The odds of having the right guy up there, in the right situation (less than 2 outs) is pretty small.

How many guys on this team do you trust to lay down a bunt (and keep it on the ground and away from home plate) with 100% certaintity? Maybe Droobs and Carroll?

by Toxicadam on May 2, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

After Marte gets 3 or 4 more games under his belt (say, by June 15th or so) he should be able to lay down a bunt with the best of them.

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on May 2, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

OK …. so now Raffy has blown two games in a week as closer, he’s matching Borowski ….. I’m wondering if the “Betancourt for Closer” committee has officially disbanded yet …

I still believe your best relief pitchers should work innings 6, 7 and 8, hence the reason the Raffies’ success and the Tribe’s success coincided last year. I think Raffy Right is fine as a fill-in for now …. but Masa and Jensen are still too shaky for those “set-up” innings ….

by n69hawk on May 2, 2008 2:13 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

One blown save.

And if you think we’re planning to use Raffy R in the same capacity as we used JoBo, you’re wrong.

by tabler84 on May 2, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Are we sure about this yet?

by DaytonDogg on May 2, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Masa dude, think Masa.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 2, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Masa is probably our best RP right now.

by Toxicadam on May 2, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Isn’t this like saying that Cliff Lee is probably our best SP right now?

Of course Masa is—if you’re using current season statistics. But are you saying that Masa is going to be our best reliever going forward? Because otherwise you’re just pointing out statistics.

by tabler84 on May 2, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

My head is spinning. Yes Cliff Lee is our best SP now – of course.

Somewhere in one a my statistics books there’s a time weighted algorithm for stats. Older performance stats are discounted retroactively. Something like:

Current data * 1 + Year old data.8 + two year old data.6 + three year old data*.4 / 2.8 = Time weighted average

Or something like that. Anyway, suffice it to say that more recent performances are better indicators for future performance. But you already knew that.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 2, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

But only subject to sample size. The most recent five starts are not better indicators of performance over the long haul than the 100 starts before that, though the recent starts are better indicators of the next five starts than they are of the next 25.

by Jay on May 2, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Well the beauty of the algorithm is you can do it sample by sample. Actually if I recall right that’s exactly what you do. Like the last sample has a co-efficient of 99/220 and the next 98/200 etc. etc..

The weighting is done on the number of samples. If I knew how to use the equation software for this site I’d give you the formal representation. Tried cutting and pasting but it didn’t work – lost the sum signs and all.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on May 3, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

i think Raffie’s blown saves are not quite the same as Borowski’s. Last night, the error clearly did him in (he had a chance to get out of it with no damage if that play gets made). Two nights before, the first baserunner should have been out (Peralta didn’t make a makeable play at short). Raffie did HIMSELF in after that, but you wonder what happens if he gets that initial out.

I’m not ready to give up on him yet. And, I like Masa. He made a bad pitch to Sexson, but he’s been pretty good other than that.

by peter m on May 2, 2008 2:38 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Too bad we’ll never know if he would have thrown Ichiro out or not, since Casey Blake didn’t catch the throw.

Try to imagine that the ball is in Casey’s glove, which it isn’t. Suzuki would have been out. (AP photo, source here.)

by Fiddlesticks on May 2, 2008 4:43 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

In IchiroLand, this is otherwise known as “Out by a mile.”

by tabler84 on May 2, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

But was it possible to have caught the ball and still put the mitt in that spot as quickly?

Making a good catch might have delayed the tag long enough that Ichiro would have been safe. I’m not saying he would have been safe, but it’s close enough that you have to acknowledge the possibility.

by Jay on May 2, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs