Postponed

by Jay on May 2, 2008 10:20 PM EDT in News Comment 16 comments

The Indians announced an hour ago that tonight's game has been postponed, and no makeup date has been announced. While you might expect the teams to double-up tomorrow or Sunday to make up the game, as these same two teams did just last Thursday, Anthony Castrovince speculates that August 18 might be the date. That's a common off-day for the two teams, immediately preceding a scheduled three-game set between the two at the Prog, but it would also create a 25-day span with no off-days for the Indians. Both teams might prefer to do a double-header on Saturday, September 13, after rosters have expanded to 40.

Both teams have announced that tonight's scheduled starters (Sabathia and Hochevar) will go on Saturday, with Saturday's original pair (Laffey and Meche) going on Sunday. With a scheduled off-day on Monday, however, if only two games are played this weekend, the Indians could opt to skip Laffey's turn, starting Sabathia and Carmona against the Royals this weekend and then Lee-Byrd-Sabathia as originally scheduled against the Yankees, all on regular rest

They could in fact send Laffey down tomorrow and keep an extra player on the roster for those five games, recalling Jeremy Sowers to make starts on May 9 and 14. It was the first rainout, after all, that forced the Indians to bump Sowers back to Buffalo in favor of Laffey. Neither Ben Francisco nor Brad Snyder is eligible to be recalled this weekend, but the Indians could supplement the bullpen with Ed Mujica, or give a first cup-of-coffee to Wyatt Toregas or Michael Aubrey. Francisco could be recalled in time to start the Yankees series.

Of course, none of this will matter if the teams instead play a double-header on Saturday or Sunday, in which case the Indians rotation will move forward as originally planned.

Tonight's postponement also postpones our first look at Wedge's reshuffling of yesterday's reshuffled lineup — lineup 2.0.1 if you will — in which Casey Blake returns to the #8 spot while Franklin Gutierrez ascends to the all-important two-hole. Blake struggled mightily in the past two series (458 OPS) while Gutierrez thrived (943). Neither man has put up significant power numbers, and Blake has walked more, but I don't think Wedge is just acting in ignorance of BIP variance here. You can see the difference in ther body language at the plate, while the numbers show that Blake struck out 11 times in just 24 at-bats.

As I write this, the Twins are pummeling the TIgers 8-1 after seven innings, poised to move just a half-game back of the White Sox, who lost hours ago, while shoving the Tigers into 3rd place, 1.5 games back. (Tough loss today for Buerhle, who pitched an eight-inning complete game and allowed just two un-earned runs, no walks, four singles and a double.) The Indians are now just one game back of the White Sox for the division lead.

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Nice analysis of Blake vs. Gutierrez. I don’t think Gutierrez will be the answer in the 2 hole, but I think Wedge is right to try, for precisely the reasons you mention.

by peter m on May 2, 2008 10:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Laffey’s pitching on Sunday?

Well, damn. Guess we’re heading downtown after all. :)

--
Right now, I'll take .500 and run. I'm a cheap happy.

by vbc3 on May 2, 2008 10:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It’s amazing and awesome to only be a game back from the division lead. I guess it’s a testament to our starting pitching keeping us in games while the offense goes through the anemic spell.

Once this offense turns around I think it’s going to get good.

by cclemens31 on May 2, 2008 10:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Indians are now just one game back of the White Sox for the division lead.

This is really amazing all things considered. I really hope one or two guys really catch fire and we can really get rolling. Let’s Go Tribe.

by DaytonDogg on May 2, 2008 11:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Is anyone in the FO going to start asking what the point having Michaels on the roster is?

1) I’m pretty sure Andy Marte could match Michaels’ OPS given the same amount of playing time.

2) While not a representative sample, Marte’s zone rating this year is much better than Blake’s. Plus, I believe the consensus opinion is that Marte is actually better at 3B defensively.

3) Blake was actually a dynamite RF in 2006. With a rotation between Le Gutz, Looch and The Beard, we should get the same production with marginally better OF defense.

Am I missing something, or is Michaels a complete waste of the Tribe’s time and roster space?

NBR (No Borowski Run): Refers to that run which puts the Indians up by 4 over an opponent, thereby drastically reducing the chances of Joe Borowski pitching in a game.

by crazymoloh on May 3, 2008 12:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

While I would love to dump Michaels and agree with each of your points, here is what I believe the FO is considering in keeping him:
1. Michaels should move towards his career #’s against lefties: about .825 OPS
2. Marte won’t be able to put up an .825 OPS against lefties
3. Marte hasn’t earned playing time over Blake
4. Michaels is a career slow starter: under .700 OPS in April
5. Michaels cost some money to just DFA
6. Don’t want to sell low, Michaels or Marte could have some value in the future, but neither have much right now

by DaytonDogg on May 3, 2008 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1. Let’s call it more like 800. But it is true that his struggles this season have been mostly with lefties, and it’s only 24 AB, and he has drawn four walks against them.
2. I doubt very much that they believe that.
3. We aren’t talking about Blake.
4. Okay.
5. There is no way in hell that this gets even a moment’s consideration from them.
6. I do think they are hoping Michaels can continue his recent relatively hot run and resuscitate his value a little.

by Jay on May 3, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On #3, I think what DDogg is saying is that if Michaels goes, then Blake takes his place in the left field platoon (i.e., part-time) and Marte takes over full time at 3rd. Hence the comment, “Marte hasn’t earned playing time over Blake”. Correct me if I’m wrong, DDogg.

by CaptainPenny on May 3, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I understood that. “Over Blake” still doesn’t make sense, as Blake would not be losing playing time.

by Jay on May 3, 2008 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right CaptainPenny- I believe Wedge looks as third base as a job, and right now that job belongs to Casey Blake. Marte doesn’t deserve that job more than him. I realize that Michaels would be gone in the proposed situation so Blake would get more time, but he still doesn’t start over Dellucci or Gutz, just becomes their platoon/backup guy. That is a demotion to Blake and I don’t believe the brass believes that Marte is deserving of this.

And Jay:
1 and 2. His career OPS against lefties is .826- I wasn’t making it up and if Wedge/Shapiro really think Marte can do that, well, I’d be surprised.
5. I’d hope not. I don’t think buying Michaels out is a huge consideration, or even a significant one, but it does exist.

by DaytonDogg on May 3, 2008 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Using his career OPS is not a good way to predict what he is going to do at this point in his career. In 2006 (age 30) he had an OPS of .799 vs LHP in 210 plate appearances. In 2007 (age 31) he had an .800 OPS vs LHP in 156 plate appearances. Thats 366 plate appearances in the past two years of roughly .800 OPS vs. LHP as a Cleveland Indian in the AL Central. Using his career numbers and ignoring that he no longer plays in the NL and is on the, plateau at best, side of his career doesn’t make logical sense. So I don’t think anyone should “expect” him to do better than what he has done for two full seasons in a row with this team. Can it happen? sure, is it likely to happen? no. If anything he may start to decline from that point and then we really have a problem platooning a guy who’s best platoon stat is sub .800 OPS.

by hans on May 4, 2008 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I totally agree with you, and I hope that Wedge does too.

by DaytonDogg on May 4, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As I’ve explained more than once … Wedge could take Michaels’ place in the LF platoon, averaging two games a week, continue play 3B two days a week against some righties, and also take a start at RF or 1B once a week.

Essentially, if you cut Michaels and are willing to use Blake in the OF, you can still give him 5-6 starts per week, plus 6-7 each for Gutierrez and Garko, and 4-5 each for Dellucci and Marte. So if for some reason “not demoting Blake” is still a major priority for Wedge, it’s still not really a problem.

Hans explained my thinking about the target OPS for Michaels, but let’s not quibble over 25 points. The fact is, if the Indians didn’t think the right-hitting Marte was very likely to be able to put up an 825 OPS against lefties, he’d have already been dumped, because if he’s not even that good then he’s worthless even as a depth option. In 2007, the median OPS for AL righty batters vs lefty pitchers, minimum 100 PA, was 857.

While allowing that the vs-LHP split is always susceptible to massive variance, since nobody gets even 200 PA vs LHP in a season, the 800 level should essentially be considered replacement level.

by Jay on May 4, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In that first sentence, I think you meant to say Blake, but it may not be completely inaccurate as is!!

by peter m on May 4, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The FO seems to value OBP above all else. In Philly, Michaels was .360+ for most of his career. He hasn’t even been close to that since being an Indian. This year he has a dismal .258.

If he can’t raise that stat, I don’t see how they can keep him on the team.

by Toxicadam on May 3, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs