Olney: Hafner hasn't been the same since HBP
by TheDanimal on May 29, 2008 11:20 AM EDT
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PrintBuster Olney seems to think that Pronk's struggles have something to do with getting hit [insider] by a Ron Mahay pitch.
There is a clear statistical crossroad in Travis Hafner's performance, dating back to the moment when Hafner was hit by a pitch thrown by Ron Mahay on April 25, 2007. The following numbers come courtesy of ESPN research monster Mark Simon:
In the 180 games since he was hit by Mahay:
BA: .243
HR: 23
RBI: 107
K: 145
AB: 635 (154-for-635)He was hitting .373 with five homers and 15 RBIs that season, through and including the April 25 game.
In the year and month leading up to that at-bat, if you go from 2006 through that 2007 game in which he got hit …
Games: 147
BA: .317
HR: 47
RBI: 132
AB: 521
K: 125
That's just bizarre. Hafner bounced back pretty well from that pitch to the face from Buehrle. I can't imagine anything Ron Mahay brought could be any worse.
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Was the Mahay pitch to the face, too? I remember the Buehrle one a lot better. That’s really weird, I wonder what type of injury could have been sustained from a HBP that would linger that long. You’d think Hafner would have spoken up by now if the problem was related to that.
Not to get all psychologizing, but it very well could be causing the problem without him explicitly knowing it.
Hafner has a 25% LD rate and .268 BABIP. I don’t know what to say anymore other than he’s obviously having some kind of contest with Swisher.
I wonder what effect the shift has on these numbers. I mean, when hafner hits a liner into right, one would think that the ball is less likely to drop for a hit with the extra fielder.
Most teams were employing the shift by the end of 2005, nearly all during 2006, so right away, it seems like that shouldn’t be a factor, because it hasn’t changed — if anything, many teams have now stopped using the shift. I’ve seen close examinations of this question, and I don’t think anyone has concluded that it’s making that much difference. The shift has little effect other than to reduce the number of hits he gets on seeing-eye grounders, but that number was never that big.
This winter, I slipped on some ice on my driveway and fell on my hip. It never left a mark, but the strain and trauma of falling reaggravated an old back problem. It may be possible that Haf’s hand injury or some trauma related to it has further agrgravated Haf’s chronic shoulder to a point beyond short term rehab. Haf had this past winter to relax that shoulder and, apparently, it didn’t result in a full recovery. He may have to sit a year to become whole.
The more I think about this thread the more I’m wondering, is the injury possibility legitimate or are we just hoping beyond hope that we’ll somehow magically get Pronk back?
Hard truth: Your eyes lie.
At this point, it’s more like a CSI show. The person is already dead .. we are just trying to figure out HOW it happened.
by Toxicadam on May 29, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
BTB looked at Hafner a couple weeks ago, not sure if its been posted here before.
by 7foot3 on May 29, 2008 1:11 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Maybe we should hope he gets hit again. The old, “Fall down a well, eyes go crossed; get kicked by a mule, eyes go back!” solution. It can’t hurt.
Il faut d'abord durer.
by CU Adam on May 30, 2008 10:19 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
It’s the gift that keeps on giving.
by tabler84 on May 30, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hasn’t he generally sucked since getting married? Let’s not overthink things.
LeCavs!
If you were good enough, maybe we'd name it after you.
Most people’s job performance drops after they get married. Don’t you think?
If you don’t have data, don’t go there.
Okay, I just watched the HBP on mlb.tv archives. It barely grazed his front-right side of his right thigh, mid-way between his hip and his knee. I don’t think anyone could watch the video and not conclude that this is an extremely dumb theory.
See what happened was … ohhh wait ….. well it may have been ….. no that won’t work either
Am guessing Olney is channeling Steve Phillips then?
If he got hit on the thigh and not the wrist as speculated above, the only way this works is if this was the final HBP (broke the proverbial camel’s back) that caused him to become more nervous at the plate, perhaps even causing flashbacks to Buerhle.
My bad – I didn’t actually look at the HBP – I just assumed that it was the one where he got hit on the wrist.
Free Andy Marte!
by woodsmeister on Jun 3, 2008 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
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