Game Thirty-Two: Indians 5, Yankees 3
by Ryan on May 7, 2008 12:04 AM EDT
in Game Recaps
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| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| David Dellucci | .595 | Ryan Garko | -.163 |
| Jhonny Peralta | .317 | Kelly Shoppach | -.125 |
| Rafael Betancourt | .097 | Fausto Carmona | -.116 |
I guess it would figure that the Indians come back to win a game after the starter barely got through five innings.
Fausto Carmona's frequent walking spells, which would have sent a pitcher with lesser stuff to the minors by now, shortened his outing tonight. Even though the Yankee lineup tends to chew up starters before their normal finishing point, I don't really think it was their patience that forced Fausto out. It was Fausto's mechanics that acted up; like most of his starts, he'd be in the strike zone for several batters at a time, then his pitches would go off the radar. Carmona has now walked 30 batters in almost 40 innings, an astounding number, especially if you consider how low his ERA remains.
Victor Martinez was a late scratch, making Jhonny Peralta (.216/.276/.392) and Ryan Garko (.242/.361/.354) the #3 and #4 hitters. The scary thing is that those were the proper choices, unless you wanted to move Sizemore down. Ben Francisco was in the lineup, just up from Buffalo, not to mention one of Andy Marte's rare appearances. (Side note: If you throw out Jamey Carroll, every one of those in tonight's lineup either made their major-league debut with the Indians or still had rookie eligibility when they debuted with the Indians. And that includes all the pitchers who made appearances in tonight's game as well.)
But despite another shaky outing from Carmona, despite not doing much against Andy Pettitte, the Indians won the game. The offensive production came on two swings of the bat. The first swing was Jhonny Peralta's home run to right-center in the fourth. The second came in the eighth inning off Joba Chamberlain when pinch-hitter David Dellucci flew out to the short porch in right field. Dellucci's home run came after Ryan Garko seemingly let Joba off the hook by weakly flying out when ahead in the count.
For a game in early May, this win was pretty significant. The Indians haven't been the only team struggling early this season, and even with a below-.500 record, they are now just 1.5 games behind the first-place Twins. For all the trials and tribulations April brought, the Indians don't really need to make up much ground.
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that’s what i’m preaching. i said it the other night: the indians have “achieved” this with nothing from 3B, 2B, RF, DH, relatively little from SS and 1B, unsteady relief (Betancourt, Lewis, Perez), and missing relievers (Julio, Mastny, Breslow).
we will no doubt see improvements from ALL of those positions.
meanwhile, the tigers are 3rd in the AL in runs scored. but their pitching has been bad. and honestly, aside from verlander, there’s NO reason to suggest it’ll improve.
couldn’t follow the game (damn time change), but let me say now…
HA HA HA HA HA HA!
by APV on May 7, 2008 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Had to follow the game (with interuptions) while at work and no access to LGT. Great to read the game thread knowing what happened and the end result!!!
One day I'll get over to watch the Tribe play
by new zealand tribe fan on May 7, 2008 4:01 AM EDT reply actions
I guess you could say the Yankees got a Blow Joba last night.
by DixonCayne on May 7, 2008 6:40 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
A nice win for the Indians. Some good things happened: really strong bullpen work (nice to see Betancourt getting foul balls like last year!!); Peralta had a nice game (I loved that walk late in the game); even Marte was let out of jail (momentarily).
I thought Marte actually did okay - no hits, but he looked patient and seemed to have a clue at the plate - I thought he just missed the 3 – 1 pitch he flied out on in his last AB and it looked to me like he had a real plan in that at bat (working the count, looking for a pitch away on 3-1, etc.)
Francisco didn’t impress me. I didn’t see all his AB’s, but he looked a little anxious at the plate.
Things that worried me: Carmona’s wildness, Hafner still clueless (although he was really on the ball he broke his bat on), Garko’s anxious swing on 2-0 (Dellucci picked him up though!), continued anemic hitting.
I really hope someone (maybe Peralta) can get a streak going; otherwise I’m worried the Indians will slip back into the pattern we’ve been seeing – one or two games where they score runs, then prolonged stretches of nothing. Not to be a dark cloud, but I didn’t see much yesterday (apart from Peralta) that said they’re out of their collective hitting slump.
But, yes, it was a big win.
He JUSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSST missed hitting that 3-1 pitch out. Hit it hard, just kind of died around the warning track. it really bounced off his bat, though.
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
by Gradysmanldy on May 7, 2008 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
The guy has some pop. If he gets on a little hot streak you will start seeing those fly balls turn into doubles and home runs
I never thought I’d say this, but I think he can turn this thing around if they give him some PT.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
I’d like to start with, some … , I don’t know…, hits, maybe?
What gets my goose about Marte is the “backup quarterback” syndrome, i.e. the most popular guy on a football team is the backup QB. A guy who was acquired with promise, looks good/serviceable in preseason, looks good on the sidelines. Somebody you can dream on. Anybody has to be better than the guy they have in there, that bum who keeps throwing picks.
But then they finally play. Spergon Wynn, Luke McCown, etc. They don’t look that bad in their first couple of series. Hey they made that one nice pass down the middle, and did you see him scramble? We can use that kind of play. Of course, the rest of the plays were well below average, but it is something to build on, right? The problem, as we all know, is that is it. They don’t get any better. It is who they are. It is why they are a backup QBs. In a year or two, there is some new great hope. Someone new you can dream on.
For Marte it is actually worse than the backup QB. There is a huge body of work. The translations from AAA to the majors are very accurate, and his last two years of translations are replacement level at best. He has over 1/2 of a year of PAs in the majors and they are utterly pathetic. All that is left is his age (which may be Tejada enhanced), and his 2004-5 seasons. That is a long time ago. Pronk was still a monster only 1 year ago.
I know it is the internet, but this is letsgotribe, and I just expect more analysis/independent thinking in this forum. Less fanboy stuff.
I know where you are coming from Dave, but Marte is more of a Brady Quinn than a Spurgeon Wynn. He HAS to play because your franchise has made a serious investment in him.
In the same way that a Blake or Trot Nixon gets playing time because of their contracts (despite their struggles), Marte has to be considered the same way. That’s how you have to view Marte in the lineup.
Hypothetical question, but if Kouzmanoff started 3b for the Indians last year .. do you think they would have put up with his sub .210 average for all of April and May?
They put up with Barfield. Last year, Marte got caught in an unfortunate situation (unfortunate for him, that is, fortunate for the tribe that Garko started hitting). It is unfortunate again this year. But is 100 PAs going to really tell you something different, and is it worth it to force these 100PAs?
Marte is one injury away from playing full time. Just like Garko last year. But I would have not wanted the tribe to force Garko in the lineup last year, and I don’t think you would have either. Patience.
Personally, I have no faith in Marte, but stranger things have happened than Marte succeeding (e.g. Cliff Lee), and I can still be pleasantly surprised. As always, I’m hopeful for him, but as of now, I’m much more hopeful for others.
It’s easy to pick out the flops – it really is. But to find the exception, that’s tough. To go along with your back-up QB thing, you know that Frank Ryan usta back up a guy named King Hill at Rice. Given the opportunity he didn’t turn out to bad.
And you’re right, all the signs point to Marte bein’ a bust – but – but – he maybe one of those guys who needs to find his footing at every level. I’m just watching him play. And he may have a fatal flaw – can’t hit the breaking pitch – has a hole the size of Kansas in his swing – I just haven’t seen it. Maybe you have – if so tell me what it is.
And I’ll tell you what – the boy can play some D. He’s without a doubt – and I’ll argue this with you all night and day – the best defensive third baseman on this team. I’m just sayin’ give the kid 15-20 games over the next 30 to see if he can hit. That’s all I’m asking for.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
Dave, I hope you continue to fight for your position here. There’s obviously a huge wave of Andy Marte support at the moment (myself included), but it’s good having you around to keep us honest.
by APV on May 7, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I appreciate the kind words. I actually hope that Marte plays again tonight. But I totally understand why he may not, and I guess I think it is important to point out that management’s thinking is logical with regard to Marte.
Why do I think it is important? I don’t know. Why am I a fan? Now that is something that is totally illogical.
I guess it is important to me that the team that I follow for illogical reasons, makes logical, intelligent decisions.
To more completely illustrate this analogy, the starting qb is Charlie Frye, a guy who won’t even be the backup guy on other teams (Blake). The guy waiting in the wings is someone for whom you gave up a legit wide receiver (Crislp) to acquire and who has never gotten 3 starts in a row at qb. You don’t have other qb’s on the roster (no other 3rd basemen in the minors) and the starter you keep trotting out there keeps throwing picks and the team is losing games with this qb to boot. Any head coach that continues to send the starter out will be looking for work shortly.
Blake certainly would be a backup for many teams and a starter for some. Although he’s looked in most games this season like he’s done, the odds are that he’s not quite done, and just as he regressed last season from a stellar couple of weeks back down to a mediocre level just above replacement, he likely will regress upwards toward that mediocre level now. Likely, but not definite.
by Jay on May 7, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll concede the point, however, in baseball, one can be considered a backup at third if he can play other positions. In football, a qb cannot also be a backup halfback. I doubt that anyone would carry Blake as a backup third baseman knowing he couldnt contribute at other positions. Fair enough?
OK, my bad, you said he would start for some teams. It’s hard for me to believe any teams can’t come up with a better alternative, but it may be.
I thought Marte had some good at bats as well, but that’s pushing it. Off the bat I knew that had no chance. Marte has shown no evidence of being able to hit one out right of center. His power is from the foul pole to to straight-away left, and that’s about it. It’s one of the reasons I don’t have high expectations for him.
There’s no comparison to how balls jump off of his bat and what they do off of Grady’s and Peralta’s bats. None.
That said, I’m glad to see Andy in the starting lineup again tonight. His defense has been good and I’d love to see him get ahold of one and start getting some confidence for himself and giving some confidence to Wedge.
I would like to see us make up those 1.5 games so we can resume our role as the Worst. First Place. Team. Ever.
Carmona’s stat lines have been incredible. Normally, if a guy gives up 6 hits and 5 walks in 5 innings .. you would expect him to give up about 5-6 runs too. 31 walks and yet still a sub 3.00 ERA.
That’s a high standard to shoot for—tough to beat the 2005 Padres (at 82-80). But, I have great faith in these Indians. We can do it!
Ah. Well, I guess the Indians failed miserably by actually being good last year! I’m all for a repeat of that (with additional midges and Andy Marte running through Skinner’s stop sign at third to score the go-ahead run against the Sox). Deal?
This roughly refers to August 4-21.
July 23—we’ve been playing .500 ball for six weeks and are two games behind Detroit.
August 1 – we lose seven out of the next nine, yet we’re now just one game behind. Somehow Detroit has been even worse.
August 3 – we win two in a row, which is all it takes to move into first place.
August 4-21 – We lose nine of the next 15 games, yet somehow spend all but two days in first place.
So we were deeply disatisfied with the state of the team, which while technically a first-place team had just finished a run of 17-24.
by Jay on May 7, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Were the midges invisible? I thought that was the only way anybody ever hit Joba.
LeCavs!
If you were good enough, maybe we'd name it after you.
by Matt in LA on May 7, 2008 12:18 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
You forgot to mention sweaty, muscular-necked Joba.
by fleerdon on May 7, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I loved the sidenote; really gives me the warm fuzzies.
Side note: If you throw out Jamey Carroll, every one of those in tonight’s lineup either made their major-league debut with the Indians or still had rookie eligibility when they debuted with the Indians. And that includes all the pitchers who made appearances in tonight’s game as well.
Wow. That line-up, with AbaCab instead of Baboo, really speaks well to minor league development and player identification.
i presume he means the tigers game winner when we scored like 19 runs off of jones. i can’t remeber if that was a start of a run or not…
Was the start of a pretty prosperous June, but more importantly a indicator that we were for real.
Burn on, big river, burn on...
it was june 1st
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
i thought we sucked in june and july?
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
15-13 june, 12-14 july.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that was a great irony of last season. That big moment, which seemed like a big harbinger, was followed by the worst chunk of our season—we went 31-35 from that game until AbaCab’s callup on August 15.
Meanwhile, the infamous Joe-Blowup in New York on April 19, which was supposed to be a harbinger of doom, instead led to one of our best runs, 28-13 from that night until the big Dellucci game.
by Jay on May 7, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I recommend watching the video of Dellucci’s shot up on indians.com courtesy of the Yes Network. Listen to how Michael Kay says Dellucci’s name. Then listen to the awkward rambling which ensues following the awkward silence. At one point, one of the commentators essentially says, “yeah…that ball was hit high enough and deep enough to go over the wall”. Thanks for that insightful analysis buddy…
FYI, he considers Carl Willis to be one of the three stooges.
by Jay on May 7, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know. A related question would be, how much more rope do you get?
We all vent here, but this is not the place for people who ONLY vent. That place would be, every other Indians forum.
by Jay on May 7, 2008 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
MARTE IS STARTING AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!1111
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 6:18 PM EDT reply actions
All hitter go through slumps, it’s a fact. But when an entire team is slumping for an extended period where else can you look except to coaching? If I am wrong please tell me, I really hope that I am because our front office sure doesn’t seem willing to hold the coaches to account. Oh and I’m done “venting”, everything is wonderful our coaches are the best, really.
you’re presupposing that you need to continue looking for “the answer” when you already ran into it and determined that it isn’t feasible to replace the majority of our starting position players. The fact that these players are slumping together at the same time is likely more of a statistical anomaly than something that the coaching staff is doing to them to make them suck. The answer is for the hitters to start hitting better. The coaches can help, but thats about it. You’re not going to bring in anybody else (coaches that is) that is going to substantially make any difference in “coaching” the hitters to hit better.
The fact that these players are slumping together at the same time is likely more of a statistical anomaly than something that the coaching staff is doing to them to make them suck
Shelton: Guys, seriously, stop watching tape, let’s go to the bar! Oh and Hafner, start opening your hips on every pitch, as soon as the guy starts his windup.
Wedge: Yeah, guys, let me know who’s going the worst, I’ll bat you second. Anybody starting to turn it around? Gutz, you raised your hand, all right, you’re sitting tonight.
Willis: DONT THROW STRIKES!!!!!!!!! I HATE STRIKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Much as we’d like to believe otherwise, coaching at the major league level is a small part of the picture, in particular for established players. Other than Garko, Marte, Gutierrez and Cabrera, our hitters all have at least 3.5 years in the majors. Well, Garko’s struggles have been pretty brief, Marte hasn’t played, Gutierrez isn’t doing that badly, and Cabrera honestly is probably just not ready for big-league pitching.
The biggest problems have been Blake and Hafner. Blake might be done, or it might just be a slump. As for Hafner, who can really say at this point? He’s 30 years old and has 2900 big-league plate appearances. Maybe a coach can help him, but shouldn’t he basically know how to hit by now?
Shelton helped pull off a miraculous turnaround with the 2005 lineup, which went from .244/.308/.400 to .286/.348/.480. We in fact in worse shape on May 8 that year than we are this year, 679 to 683. But that turnaround, as nice as it is to think it was Shelton, was mostly built around (a) having much better luck on balls in play, and (b) individual player improvements that may have had nothing to do with Shelton.
Aaron Boone had missed all of the previous season due to surgery, had a 455 OPS on June 3 but 777 after that point - Shelton, or just getting back into the groove. Victor was having something of a sophomore slump, then he went nuts - not unusual. Grady was already improving before Shelton, 609 April to 784 May, then he exploded for a 1096 OPS in June, then fell back to 668 in July—so which one was Shelton? Or was it just a very talented young player figuring things out, right around his 23rd birthday?
Since then, I don’t mind telling you, I’m not in love with Shelton. The team had a good year at the plate in 2006, Shelton’s first full year, but definitely took a step back in 2007. Hafner and Barfield struggled all season and never made much progress. I can’t think of a single hitter who significantly raised his game during 2007 or from 2006 to 2007, and we went from having a solid, above-average offense to a merely average one over the whole season. We got late-season boosts not from hitters going on tears, but from minor leaguers who had been developing in Akron and Buffalo.
But I add this just to get back to the original point, which is that it’s hard to say how much any of this, good or bad, has to do with the hitting coach. All I can say with any real confidence is that this is not unprecedented, and the hitting coach is probably quite low on the list of contributing factors.
As a potential point of contrast however, we have seen a striking number of reclamation projects from the mound, most of them revolving around throwing strikes, getting ahead in the count and being aggressive. It’s hard not to see a trend in the way there has been a uniformity in the narrative as well. Greater mental focus, aggressiveness, emphasizing control over velocity. That sounds like a pretty consistent coaching approach.
Have there really been, though?
Seems to me we’ve had our share of pitcher washouts, too, most notably Fernando Cabrera, Jason Davis, Jeremy Sowers and Jason Johnson.
by Jay on May 8, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
As always, perhaps the disagreement here is in the terms. By reclamation project, I am thinking of pitchers that have shown talent, struggled and then made adjustments and been successful. As Chuck rightly points out, Cliff Lee is carrying this banner right now. But I think there’s a few others. Fausto immediately comes to mind after his bullpen struggles, I think we’ve seen an improved focus and aggressiveness from both Jake and CC that is interesting in that they’re both producing similar results (low walk rates and increased control) Rafael Betancourt’s rise to dominance has also happened under Willis’ watch.
That’s just the current roster. If you want to look for the best examples, look at the stunning turnarounds of Bobby Howry or Kevin Millwood. Both pretty impressive reinventions that also happened as a result of aggressiveness and control.
Obviously, I don’t want to come anywhere close to saying that coaching was the deciding factor but I think there’s a strong organizational philosophy when it comes to pitching and Carl Willis has helped implement it.
As for the washouts, I agree with Don Knotts that the book isn’t closed on Sowers yet at all. In fact, he just made a workable spot start for us. I also recall that you yourself mentioned recently that the reason Jason Johnson was released so unceremoniously was that he wasn’t taking instruction well at all. As for Davis and Cabrera, that’s a fair charge that they didn’t succeed but it doesn’t really hurt my argument. Every coach will fail but I think there’s a considerable amount of evidence that Willis has positively impacted the staff over the last five years.
I tend to agree that the Indians have a coherent pitching philosophy centered on throwing strikes and being aggressive. I doubt that’s unique though - don’t all pitching coaches say things like that? The Indians have been pretty successful in identifying and keeping pitchers who can do that - I’m sure Willis has helped some guys (like CC) get better in that regard, but they’ve also selected pitchers who have good control (like Byrd) and dumped pitchers who couldn’t find the plate consistently (Cabrera). Overall, I’d say their approach to pitching has worked well, whether it’s coaching or just talent evaluation.
Hitting is another matter. Jay asked in a review of the week post recently whether there’s something wrong with the Indians’ approach to hitting. I haven’t seen anyone try to answer that one. Any takers?
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