Wednesday AM Kinston gamethread
Kinston playing at noon e.t. I love these day games. There is free audio, but I can't listen today. Anybody around?
Mills-Goedert-WEGLARZ-Rivero.
Goedert read Jay's recent comments, and offered up a double, HR, and BB yesterday. It's a start.
almost 4 years ago
dgcambridge
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Does it seem like in 4 years there’s a chance we’re back to mid 90s Cleveland, all hitting and little pitching? I don’t love our young minors pitching, especially early returns this year, but I love all that hitting.
This is, of course, useless and meaningless speculation.
I don’t know: it’s really our Kinston staff that seems to be lacking. We’ve still got depth in the upper levels, and a bunch of arms at Lake County.
Yes, lots of useless and meaningless speculation. We speculate because we want to.
No, in fact, I think you’ve got it completely backwards.
Our young hitting is limited - we’ve got two impressive young hitting prospects and neither has reached Akron. Our other position-player prospects are all going to be late-bloomers rather than the young impact players we’re used to - few if any will reach the majors before 24 or stick before 26. Think Garko rather than Thome.
As for our pitching, in the upper minors, well of course Carmona and Laffey are already in the majors with Sowers and Miller not far behind, and then you’ve got maybe two other legit prospects in Huff and Lofgren. That already is a lot.
Then in the lower minors, the numbers don’t look impressive so far, but these guys are 19 and 20 years old! Very very young. Fausto was 19 in his Lake County breakout year, and Jeanmar is 19 now and already in Kinston. I would propose to you that anyone on a “Fausto Pace” should be considered spectacular, and anyone slightly behind that pace, not quite spectacular.
TINSTAAPP, yes, but in sheer numbers, we might have a three times as many really good pitching prospects under 21 as hitting prospects.
What you haven’t entered into your calculation is that I think Weglarz, Mills, and Hodges are all going to be perennial all stars.
I agree with Jay on pretty much all fronts here. There are always surprised and things can always change, but the only real blue-chip offensive possibilities Cleveland has right now are Beau Mills and Nick Weglarz. That’s it. Wes Hodges, as much as we all like him, would really have to step it up offensively this year if we wanted to begin thinking of him as a perennial all-star type of player. Chipper Jones is a perennial all-star 3B…at this point Wes Hodges is closer to Brook Jacoby than Chipper Jones (not that there isn’t some value in that). Hodges can improve his standing with an excellent season this year, but we would need to start seeing OPS numbers in the .950-1.000 range before we consider him a real blue-chipper. And even Mills and Weglarz are marginally so…Mills cause he’s never played a full season and Weglarz because there’s still too many stops for him between where he’s at and Cleveland.
by APV on May 7, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Interestingly, I was looking at the B-Ref Tribe Depth Chart for hitters and couldn’t believe that the youngest regular in Buffalo is Jordan Brown at 24 and Hodges and Rodriguez are the youngest regulars in Akron at 23.
After checking my handy-dandy PTM list, I was floored that there is such a dearth of hitting prospects, particularly at the upper levels. I suppose the fact that Cabrera, Marte, Sizemore, and Frank are topside makes this a little more palatable, but the rest of those rosters are full of filler and non-prospects.
Of course, on the B-Ref Tribe Depth Chart for pitchers, you can’t help but be impressed by how ridiculously good and young our pitching is, going pretty deep into the system. What was that term we always heard – “Waves of Arms”?
by The DiaTriber on May 7, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
What makes this more discouraging of course is the total lack of hitting prospects in Lake County, too. Nash could be, I suppose, and Karexon Sanchez is off to a good start…but no one else on that roster excites me. I’m going to be paying more attention to the short-season leagues than I have in years past probably.
Kinston is the only place we have a concentration of hitting talent. Buffalo’s AAAA guys and minor league vets (excepting Brown and Barfield). Akron is the prospect equivalent of the land of lost toys (Aubrey, Whitney, Head, Gimenez, Crowe). Kinston’s good. And Lake County is like the best amateur summer hardball team in your area.
by APV on May 7, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s good to remember that unlike in the majors, the real ability level of minor leaguers often really does change over the course of a season, and sometimes dramatically. There are an awful lot of guys who look a lot more like prospects if you chop off their April numbers. In a way, following prospects more closely aligns with our natural tendency to make too much out of short-term results.
Paul, I first noticed the old-prospects thing yesterday when I was looking to see how Marte’s age compared to the Buffalo roster—shocked to see that he’d be almost the youngest guy there. I mean, yes, Marte is still young and all kinds of prospect-y, but that’s ridiculous, and I probably didn’t make enough note of the downside.
If it’s any consolation, AbaCab should probably be in Buffalo right now, and he’s 22. Even Gutierrez still has that under-ripe feel to him, don’t you think?
I want to be careful, though, not to undervalue the Brook Jacobys and Ryan Garkos of the world. These guys are not impact players but can have a big impact during their peak seasons, I’m talking 26-30, by being just 10-20% above average for a little while, and by not making too much money of course. Those types of players are immensely valuable - you could almost say that’s the type you’re trying to cultivate, and the impact players are just when you get lucky - and they are the backbone of almost any contending team.
Brown, Hodges and Rodriguez are all on that course, and maybe Goedert if he gets it in gear and stays healthy, and those guys are all great prospects. Whitney, too, fell from the “impact” category but could still enjoy a second life as a solid contributor. I think it’s important to separate this type of prospect from the impact type, but they shoudn’t be overlooked, because plenty of teams like the Twins would be lucky to have guys like this, and they will make an impact.
by Jay on May 7, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t mean to suggest an undervaluing of the Brook Jacobys (or Casey Blakes) of the world. And Indians still have a lot of these guys floating around. Jason Cooper, Brad Snyder, Wyatt Toregas in Buffalo (although Toregas is probably a legit backup catcher option). Aubrey and Whitney would certainly fall into this group, even towards the middle of their projections. Guys like Stephen Head and Chris Gimenez might be of value. So we’ve got a lot of those guys who might, if things play out correctly, contribute positively for a few years. But very few guys who look like potential building blocks on offense.
by APV on May 7, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
The Buffalo roster is pretty pathetic (position player-wise) and the Marte thing (the way that “fans” are so quick to dismiss him despite his age) is something that I’ll never wrap my head around.
Agreed on the Cabrera and Gutierrez thing, I’m just not sure where the Jacobys and Garkos come from. I think that they’re there (your list and APV’s list probably is a pretty good start), but I guess I want to see that position player prospect that just crushes everyhing at a young age at an advanced level. I know that it doesn’t fall under the notion “pitching…and more of it”, but forgive me if I want Nick Weglarz to hit his way into Buffalo by the end of the year.
by The DiaTriber on May 7, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I not only forgive you, Paul, but I support you whole-heartedly. Solid contributor solid conshmibutor. I want homers, and I want more of them, and I want them yesterday.
by fleerdon on May 7, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m considering forgiving you. Pretty demanding on Mr. Weglarz, no? Plenty of positive scouting reports heading into the season, and he has done nothing to disappoint in the first month. He’s at an OPS of .921 in a league that only has 7 hitters above .900, and he the youngest. (Only Gorkys compares) I mean, we could ask for him to take Garko’s spot by midseason, but as it is, he’s still looking like one of the better prospects in the minors.
It is true, we haven’t had a pure hitting prospect rise through the ranks since I started following the farm system closely in 2002, aside from Kouzmanoff, and he wasn’t that young. Whitney was supposed to be that guy, and then Aubrey, and then Drennen I guess. Part of this is the Indians’ deliberate focus on piling up the other two types of players—skill position guys and pitchers.
It wouldn’t shock me if Weglarz ended the season in Buffalo, but I’ll be happy if he starts 2009 in Akron after getting promoted there in July. Mills makes me more nervous, as he really has only about two years to show he can be an impact bat, and after that, he gets slotted into a “contributor” role.
the Marte thing (the way that "fans" are so quick to dismiss him despite his age) is something that I’ll never wrap my head around.
Best I can figure, this is just a variation on FAE. People see that a player is hitting .200, they figure it’s an intrinsic quality of his to be a .200 hitter. Doesn’t matter whether he was 22 in the majors or 30 in Double-A—that stuff is just details. He’s a .200 hitter, and you can tell, because he hit .200.
We don’t have a natural ability to appreciate age, level, luck or sample size on a gut level. One’s head needs to be totally submersed in these concepts before one’s gut even begins to have a clue about them. I’ve gotten to a point where I’m dismissive of a guy like Goedert on a gut level — to say nothing of my visceral disdain for the idea that Crowe is a good prospect — but that’s only after spending several years reading about this stuff and trying to break it down.
So people don’t care that Marte only had 57 at-bats, or that he was 21, or whatever. A lot of people decided when we acquired him, he’s a .140 hitter, and they instantly penciled him in as a stiff and hated the trade. Nothing he’s done in the majors has really changed that perception, and again, it doesn’t matter that in 2007, (again) he only got 57 at-bats, or was only 23, or that wasn’t really demoted for poor performance, or that nobody ever gets demoted after hitting .193 for 57 at-bats. He’s a .193 hitter with shaky defense! I saw it with my own eyes!
He’d have to have some solid, sustained success to change that perception, because it’s operating on a gut level, and even when our brains know that our guts don’t know squat, our hearts feel that our guts know more than our brains.
Basically, our hearts are stupid and don’t know that our guts aren’t that bright, ergo, Andy Marte will be a perennial All-Star. QED.
by Jay on May 7, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting that the Indians haven’t had a real stud hitting prospect since you started delving into this in 2002, yet the offense has ranked in the top half (at least) since 2004:
2007 – 6th most runs in AL
2006 – 2nd most runs in AL
2005 – 4th most runs in AL
2004 – 5th most runs in AL
Reflects well on balance and steady contributors in the construction of an offense than most people can easily see.
I think you’re dead-on with the Marte thing…it’s difficult to even explain the entirety of the situation to people because they do believe what they want to believe.
Thank you for making me remember what QED means.
by The DiaTriber on May 7, 2008 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions
By the way, if you checked the list recently, did you notice that Chris Gimenez is also spitting in my eye so far?
by Jay on May 7, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve been trying to listen to how the front-office types have talked about Gimenez this year. They increasingly seem to believe that he’s got a legitimate bat…and are having him play more catcher presumably to increase his value and give him a better shot of contributing in Cleveland.
by APV on May 7, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks to everybody for the above 10 inches of copy. I’m bookmarking this.
by fleerdon on May 7, 2008 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I’m beginning to think the BA ranking of 19th out of 30 minor league systems is accurate. I was thinking that they were knocking us down for not having a lot of high-ceiling prospect types, and thought they were underrating our depth. Our top three farm clubs have all gotten off to poor starts, and our system winning percentage is threatening to finish below .500 for the first time since at least 1992 (B-Ref didn’t go back farther than that, unless I missed it). Not that winning percentage is the most important thing, but I think it goes to show what kind of overall talent you have, especially at Akron and Kinston.
However, as mentioned in other posts in this thread, the minor leagues no longer include Cabrera, Gutz, Ben Fran, Marte, Carmona, Lewis, and Perez.
Well, it’s a funny thing about those rankings. First thing is, we’ve had a pretty steady stream of top guys using up their “prospect eligibility” but still being prospects (or rookies) from a functional point of view.
Going into 2005, none of Sizemore (22), Peralta (22) or Phllips (24) were considered prospects, though they’d played about 250 games in the majors combined and only 57 (combined) in 2004. They were young, talented minor leaguers who weren’t really part of the 2004 club but had a real chance to contribute from 2005 forward. Yet they weren’t part of the 2005 organizational rankings. That was an extreme case, but with the way the Indians are running things, we’re seeing a variation on that every year now. This year, it’s AbaCab.
More significantly, though, I think the Indians are demonstrably ahead of the curve—that is, they are getting significant major-league yield out of prospects who don’t show up impressively on these lists.
Carmona showed up once on a BA Top 100—at #74, in 2004. Didn’t make the list for 2005 or 2006, wasn’t eligible for 2007. Laffey has never showed up and never will. Same for AbaCab, same for Garko. Jeremy Sowers peaked at #54. Their rankings pick out the best toolsy guys, like Sizemore and Gutierrez and Snyder, and it doesn’t take a genius to spot a catcher who leads his league in OPS by over 100 points.
This year’s list has Miller, Lofgren and Mills, but not Laffey or Weglarz, and AbaCab isn’t eligible. I think it’s fair to ask if talent rankings that “think” Lofgren is a better asset than Laffey don’t risk being utterly meaningless. I’m still mildly bullish on Lofgren, but come one, he’s only 9.5 months younger than Laffey.
The point is just that the Indians are yielding significant and key players out of prospects who don’t show up in a significant way in the rankings. Laffey and Carmona couldn’t crack the Top 100 and are going to have two spots in our rotation for the next six years. I think you’ll find that outside of the elite systems, most of the teams ranked ahead of us are not going to accomplish anything like that.
That’s funny, I was just reading this very thoughtful FanPost arguing that we give up 1-2 runs per night from bad defense, and possibly another 3-4 runs per night from bad leadership.
I still love LGT, for sure, but it’s a different place these days. It’s so hard just to z through all the comments.
If I see over 150 comments in a thread I still think “BRANDINI!”
god, listen to this old timer
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Brandini was like nothing you’ve ever seen. He had E5’s schtick and ten times the actual baseball knowledge.
Jay, if I’m not supposed to talk about this, delete it.
Back in my day…
Seriously though, it’s a quality site, the readership is only going to grow. So yeah, the character changes a bit.
I’m all for the kind of work Jay did in the above post. Come in here with a least a little support for your ideas or go away.
What I think is interesting is the lack of discussion outside of Game Threads. I feel like we’re becoming an all-game-thread site almost—with a greater portion of the visitors coming here for the fun of real-time exchanges. Even this game thread is getting more activity than most fanposts that are about, you know, actual subjects.
by Jay on May 7, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I think this is in part a product of the current team situation. Aside from wild trade speculation (which I’m guilty of now), what do we have to talk about aside from how bad everyone on the offense is doing? Sure…there are still the personal anecdote diaries and “can Cliff Lee really keep this up” diaries…but not much else. I assume when a few players begin to pick it up and begin playing up to expectations we’ll see some more focused diaries on the rest of the guys.
by APV on May 7, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I know, it just seemed like we had more interesting side discussions going on last year - no disrespect intended to “What About D?” and the Slider’s Birthday controversy, of course. Possibly because the team overall was doing well but there was still big drama and movement between the majors and Buffalo - a few spectacular failures and quite a few big successes coming up. I think we also came out of the 2006 season, where we auditioned a dozen young guys late in the year, with more knowledge of the guys in Buffalo, who were shoved back down there by our veteran free agents.
Ryan and I are actually writing more this year than last, I think. Generally that will foment more discussion, but is it possible we’re shutting it down in some way by covering more things more deeply?
by Jay on May 7, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
My guess it that for more of the regulars, and I’ll say definitely for myself, there is more pressure to not put up diaries that are just complete crap. Do I really need to post this? Is it contributing in anyway? And that’s in part a product of you and Ryan doing a great job of moderating the site…to have a community of participants who hold themselves to a higher standard. But I suppose one potential outcome it can lead to is simply less discussion
by APV on May 7, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s also true that there’s less controversy because there’s a pretty strong consensus between most regulars on most Indians-related issues, all of which have been hashed out before. What are some new questions that need answering…..I suppose the questions Jay poses every week could be made into FanPosts in one form or another.
There’s some inertia for sure. The call-ups this season are going to be guys we’re familiar with, so there’s less to get excited about on the farm. Wedge’s most questionable decision - Marte - we’ve written a small book about. There’s not much heat on, since the entire division is playing bad baseball.
I also seem to think a lot of the tools we once used to generate new content are much more common knowledge now than they were last year - BP’s stuff, Pitch F/X, THT advanced stats - so the value of the sort of hey-check-this-out analysis and discussions you refer may have decreased. I dunno—I was kind of bummed that moloh’s most recent look at Hafner didn’t stir up any trouble. it was good stuff. But by and large, if I have a question now, I’m more likely to answer it myself and leave it at that.
I agree with Adam and Nick: If I made the kind of diaries I used too—not that they were objectionable, but, shoot, let’s take a look: Here’s a diary of mine from last summer. Even if there was some kind of demand to justify making that diary again, who here would need to read it?
And, finally, there’s some truth to what you say. Your week in review pieces, for example, may not generate as much discussion not because we don’t read them, but because we read them and really don’t have any questions left. You and Ryan may have streamlined your composition processes without realizing it, you know?
I dunno, I’ve been reading since late 2006 and posting nearly that long. I feel like I’ve been through Logical Thought and Critical Reasoning Baseball Academy. There’s always more to understand, of course, but perhaps less to talk about.
by fleerdon on May 7, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m with you on this Tyler. I always find myself nodding along to the thought processes as I read them and have little to add. The discourse on this site both forms and serves as a reflection of my thoughts, even if I sit in the corner quietly.
As for the Game Threads, with a 1 1/2 year old, I rarely watch a game live (thank God for DVR) and 800 comments is just not something that I have time to pore through.
by The DiaTriber on May 7, 2008 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions
anywhere i could follow this game online?
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 12:56 PM EDT reply actions
agh, i’m at work. no gamecast or anything?
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
so are we allowed to swear in minor league threads?
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 1:03 PM EDT reply actions
So my quick recap so far:
Goedert doesn’t like Jay.
Am I wrong?
by APV on May 7, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice thread guys. Stephanie Storm has a cool feature on one of our man-crushes, Mr. Hodges.
Break over. Time for me to get back to work.
Further proof that NBA basketball is the dullest thing on earth:
The top story on my Yahoo! Sports page at this moment is “Nuggets’ Anthony Gets Speeding Ticket.“
Whatever it takes.
Geodert knows perfectly well that none of these numbers count until he gets to Akron anyway.
by Jay on May 7, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Those three of course loaded the bases on a single, single, walk….but were all then left stranded.
by APV on May 7, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
salmon burger AND crab cake….you are decaent my friend
by APV on May 7, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
that should have read “decadent” by the way….
And I don’t think you need to apologize for eating yogurt, salmon, crab, or beans (they’re good for your heart, the more you eat, the more you…)...
by APV on May 7, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
You get more effeminate every day.
Did you wash that meal down with a Long Island Iced Tea or a Bay Breeze?
by Jay on May 7, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I assume the latter contains a healthy amount of Malibu rum?
by APV on May 7, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Neither do I, but it has to, right? I mean…”Bay Breeze”? Who goes up to a bartender and, while not paying up a dare, asks for a Bay Breeze? That’s like going to a jukebox in a bar and putting Kenny G in the queue.
by APV on May 7, 2008 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Cringing at the analogy.
I do eat quiche … but it’s the way I eat it. Very manly.
by Jay on May 7, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
with bacon in it, of course….
...although a nice spinach quiche can be tasty….
by APV on May 7, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the thing that actually makes this effeminate is that it’s so many different things. Real men eat a large quantity of one thing, like a whole large pizza.
that sounds really good
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I can’t say for sure. The record in my family is still just one whole friend chicken, but that’s pretty impressive.
by Jay on May 7, 2008 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
and?
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
My body is a temple. And fish is awesome. So is yogurt.
You know what, I’m not ashamed of this. When I eat pizza and fried chicken I fall asleep and wake up needing to throw up.
i get sleepy after i eat anything. i think my body is dying
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
i get sleepy after pbr too
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
2 or fewer PBRs make me sleepy….more than two make me excited. More than two also make me a bit “gassy” the next day.
by APV on May 7, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
sounds good to me
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully for the last few innings the Kinston staff will at least be able to hold them to single run innings…
by APV on May 7, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
what’d i miss
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 2:23 PM EDT reply actions
Goedert continues to spit in Jay’s eye with four hits. Although admittedly the last two have been hollow singles.
by APV on May 7, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not even following the game, I’m just following the thread. As my wife does several times a week. She refers to all of you guys as “Fred.”
by Jay on May 7, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
why fred
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
so whatever happened in this game?
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 3:30 PM EDT reply actions
maybe someone just wanted the other half of your salmon burger…
by APV on May 7, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
it did sound good …
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.
by Gradyforpresident on May 7, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
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