Game Fifty-Six: Royals 6, Indians 1

by Ryan on Jun 1, 2008 11:23 PM EDT in Game Recaps

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Andy Marte	.034	Paul Byrd	-.246
Scott Elarton	.011	Kelly Shoppach	-.079
Ben Francisco	.004	Jhonny Peralta	-.070

So what do we make of this mess? A very good rotation tied to a dysfunctional lineup and an untrustworthy bullpen isn't going to win 81 games, let alone the 7 or 8 extra that it will probably take to win this division. Whatever depth there was in the minors has been recalled, but instead of that depth replacing "mediocre veterens" like David Dellucci and Casey Blake, they're being asked to cover for Victor Martinez's power and Travis Hafner's entire offensive game. To paraphrase Rick Patino, Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome aren't walking through that door.

Over the next two weeks, some difficult decision are going to be made. From my vantage, there's two ways to go: either drain the farm system in order to re-build the lineup on the fly, or punt 2008 by trading Sabathia. It's like choosing between a root canal and an IRS audit; both are destined to be painful, though in different ways. The next eight games, with the last four in Detroit, will probably make the decision for Mark Shapiro.

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Hey, if you are going to suck .. at least make history while doing it....

While going 12-15, the Indians batted only .218 in May. It was their lowest since August 1968 when they hit .208 and the worst in the majors since the New York Mets hit .217 in September 2003

The 2003 Mets ended up finishing 69-92 in 2003.

by Toxicadam on Jun 1, 2008 11:42 PM EDT 0 recs

Did the 2003 Mets fair any better in 2004?

by NickFantana on Jun 1, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

fare instead of fair. serves me right.

I want to go on the record that I choo-choo choose trading CC. I honestly don’t think trading him for value is a total punt on this season, given our rotation’s depth, and it definitely makes more long term sense to add someone under club control through at least 2010, like everyone else.

Is there any way CC could fetch a young, cheap bat? Someone like a Joey Votto, Wladimir Balintien, Melky Cabrera, etc.?

by NickFantana on Jun 2, 2008 12:03 AM EDT up 0 recs

Don’t know what’s on the block, but I think you’re right. Let’s get Carmona back, then talk about it.

I'll regress to my career numbers if you do too!

by Fire Slider on Jun 2, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

If the nobody pulls away from the division, there’s really no reason that we should have to make any moves at all, right? I don’t think there’s any reason to be strongly for or against making any moves until we’re clearly out of the race, which will most likely be much closer to august 31 rather than June 10, eh? I’m certainly not against trading CC for the right package, but with this pitching we’re primed for an early 2000’s A’s type second half tear, not implying that it will happen, but saying that this is the division that we’re in and we may as well operate like it. I wouldn’t mind waiting until after the all-star break to make any serious moves if we can keep within 5 games of any of these Central teams that are in first place. White Sox? Twins? Their “success” is no less fluky than our failure thus far.

by pittribefan on Jun 2, 2008 12:12 AM EDT 0 recs

I tend to agree with this, but I also think that we’d have to start playing ourselves toward the .500 mark if we are going to “hang around” and hope on making a run. I think Ryan is right that within a week or so we’ll have a better idea on where this team will need to go. But you’re point is valid, in that this team was predicted (by some very good prediction systems) to do much better than this, and Hafner aside we should still have enough talent to make a run in a division that has no clear-cut runaway with it team.

by hans on Jun 2, 2008 2:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

Not quite yet, but the move is to move C.C. Hope we can do better than Melky Cabrera.

by DixonCayne on Jun 2, 2008 6:42 AM EDT 0 recs

It’s this time of year that I actually check the cleveland.com forums to see if Dwags shows up

by Roger Dorn on Jun 2, 2008 9:46 AM EDT 0 recs

Who’s that?

by gahnki on Jun 2, 2008 10:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

The Indians trade rumor Deep Throat. I doubt he’s actually spiriting out front office info; it seems more likely to me he makes authorized leaks.

by fleerdon on Jun 2, 2008 10:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

So he’s real? Or does he just make educated guesses?

by gahnki on Jun 2, 2008 10:21 AM EDT up 0 recs

It does seem to be authorized and he tends to have the exact players in a deal well before anyone else. He posted on cleveland.com about the Lofton-Max Ramirez deal first. I also remember him getting the Marte-Crisp trade details first.

He posts rumors too though. In a post in the offseason, he was the one that said that Beane wanted Asdrubal, Laffey and Adam Miller for Haren

by Roger Dorn on Jun 2, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up 0 recs

Yep, I definitely remember him having the Lofton and Marte deals days before they were in the papers and I think he called some FA signings too, and I really can’t remember a case where he said a deal was done and it didn’t happen. Although he does occasionally post stuff that’s “being talked about” that doesn’t end up going down, but he’s pretty clear that it’s not definite.

cleveland.com forums really aren’t that bad if you just search for “dwags” and leave immediately if you don’t see anything new.

by mrich on Jun 2, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Someone should email dwags and guide him over here ;)

by talonk on Jun 2, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Andy Marte leading in WPA: Get used to it, folks.

by fleerdon on Jun 2, 2008 10:15 AM EDT 0 recs

Actually, Andy Marte’s WPA on the season (-0.41) is better than Casey Blake’s (-0.45), primarily because just about every time there’s been a late-inning high leverage situation, Wedge has pinch-hit for him. I also suspect that Marte’s WPA is highly affected by the number of successful sac bunts he’s laid down, but I’m not sure I uderstand WPA calculations method to state that definitively. Marte’s pLI is 0.74, compared to Blake’s pLI of 1.10.

Casey Blake has batted in a lot more high leverage situation, and despite his RISP, he has failed in enough of them to lower his WPA to the point where it is lower than Marte’s.

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jun 2, 2008 11:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

Unbelievable that a guy who goes 0-4 with no walks leads our team in WPA for the game (he reached on an error). Also, Andy reaching on that error (0.51) was our second-most-WPA-positive play of the day, pitching OR hitting-wise…Grady’s leadoff double took top spot for the day (0.57).

by supermarioelia on Jun 2, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

The Indians have really shown no signs of “coming out of it” and there’s no one left in the farm system who looks likely to make a significant impact on the offense in the short term. So, I guess trading CC is becoming reality.

The problem is what can you get for him. As has been pointed out, most teams won’t be able to sign him, so you’re trading them a “rental” for several months, which won’t net you a team’s best prospects or an established ‘star’ player. The teams that would be able to sign him (and which would be willing to give you more in return as a result) are few in number and several are teams that the Indians might hesitate to deal with (Yanks, Red Sox, Angels) because they’re in the AL. I think the Dodgers are worth exploring, and maybe the Braves (who love pitching and have some money). So, Shapiro has a tough task ahead of him.

The Indians have major gaps at multiple positions—3B, 1B, corner outfield, maybe DH. So, trading CC may not be the “cure” (although it might fill a couple of holes). Making a run in 2009 may still depend on getting better play out of the “core” guys with contracts (Martinez, Hafner, Sizemore, Peralta, etc.)

by peter m on Jun 2, 2008 10:27 AM EDT 0 recs

I think we would be able to get top prospects for a CC rental. If you are a team that is looking for a serious edge in a pennant race and you have the chance to pick up a 27 year old coming off of the Cy Young, you take that chance. I am thinking of the Cubs in particular as a team that would see adding CC as maybe putting them over the top. Not saying they are a match for us, but I can envision teams like that pushing all their chips in.

by Roger Dorn on Jun 2, 2008 10:44 AM EDT up 0 recs

Hmm. Off the top of my head:

Sabathia + Shoppach for Soto, Murton, and two B-B+ prospects. Start DHing Vic and Soto when they’re not catching, plus some first mixed in. Trade Garko.

by afh4 on Jun 2, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up 0 recs

I’d say no way the Cubs give up Geovany.

by odradek on Jun 2, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don’t know, its somewhat comparable to what the Braves did with Salt for Texierra (except they got Tex for two years, but also gave up some other prospects.

by hans on Jun 2, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think they’d listen. Might have to sweeten with Hodges or something but I doubt they could really consider Soto untouchable when CC’s involved.

by afh4 on Jun 2, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

The Cubs would have to demand a Santana-like claus: Only if we can sign him…

by odradek on Jun 2, 2008 7:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

I forgot to add 2B to the list of gaps, although Asdrubal could fill that if he starts to hit.

by peter m on Jun 2, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up 0 recs

I think you have to look at the Santana trade. The Mets traded for him, probably assuming they could sign him. In return, they gave the Twins to really good prospects (Carlos Gomez and Guerra, who’s very, very young) and two pretty decent pitching prospects, one of whom is 25, neither of which is seen as a potential 1 or 2 starter. You would have to assume a rental would bring less, both because it’s for part of a season and because you’re assuming Sabathia won’t stay.

Soto is a 25-year old catcher with power (plus he draws walks). Why would the Cubs trade him? Murton’s a decent player, but not the power hitting corner outfielder we seem to need. There’s talk he’ll be dealt for bullpen help. If I were Shapiro, I wouldn’t do that deal unless the Cubs included Soto, and even then, it makes Vic a 1B with no power, which reduces his value. Trading Garko is fine with me.

by peter m on Jun 2, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

i’m pretty sure the new contract was a stipulation of the Santana trade…the Mets weren’t guessing that they’d be able to sign him up, that was necessary to complete the transaction.

at this stage, i’m really hesitant to say “trade CC” b/c of exactly what you guys are saying—the quality of the return. if the best we’re doing is Soto or Melky Cabrera, then i say hang onto him and take the 2 first round picks.

by DontCallMeJoey on Jun 2, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well, I think they trade Soto because they want CC. I’m not saying it’s a perfect deal, or even plausible, it’s just the first thing that popped into my head. As you said, the deal doesn’t make any sense without Soto.

I don’t want to move Vic off of catching totally. I just think at this point, if trading CC, we need to identify the teams who might want him and get a major league hitter out of them. With the Cubs, Soto is the only one I can see as possible. Once we have that major league hitter, then we worry about patching together the lineup. We need a 1B and a DH, so finding a creative way to get decent ABs at those positions with players out of their natural position doesn’t seem like the world’s worst idea.

by afh4 on Jun 2, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

What about the Rangers? They desperately need a SP and seem to have a wealth of hitting right now.

by Toxicadam on Jun 2, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

They aren’t really good enough to be renting a SP are they?

by afh4 on Jun 2, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree that the right way to think of it is which teams think adding a top of the line starter will make them World Series contenders. The Cubs immediately came to mind when I thought of it that way, and I am sure there are other teams that will consider themselves in the mix come July.

by Roger Dorn on Jun 2, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

I was beginning to lean towards the “trade CC” camp last week, and dropping these last two games in KC has got me there completely. I absolutely do not believe this team has in it the hot hitting couple of months that will be required to make the playoffs and/or do anything once they get there. It looks like we got old - or at least, Vic and Pronk did - faster than anybody expected.

I would dangle CC and Byrd immediately, and really I’d listen to offers for anybody on the roster, although I honestly don’t see a scenario where I’d trade Grady.

Everybody else is fair game though, although it really saddens me to hear myself saying that. I was hoping to cheer for these guys for years, but this is a deeply broken team and if it takes giving up one of my favorite players (read: Vic or Jhonny) to fix it, then it has to be done.

by mrich on Jun 2, 2008 1:20 PM EDT 0 recs

Not that it would happen this season, but I could definitely see Vic as the next trading chip. He is the next core guy up for an extension. He’d fetch a decent amount back since it would be 1.5 seasons of a rental, plus an option year I think.

by talonk on Jun 2, 2008 4:03 PM EDT 0 recs

he’s the soul of the team

by Gradyforpresident on Jun 2, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

You assume that this team still has a soul. I have to admit that I’m beginning to wonder.

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jun 2, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

Maybe Clifford sold all of their souls, not just his own, to have this season.

"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter

by Denver Tribe Fan on Jun 2, 2008 6:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

He may be and I am not saying that is what I would be pushing for, I am just saying that it is an option to consider for Shapiro.

1. Vic is a valuable player
2. He is a catcher, who will continue to decline in production at some point.
3. If he moves to 1B eventually, he is not as valuable, especially for the Tribe

All things to consider. Again, I don’t think it will happen, but if we were to trade him, we could get a lot for him, probably more than we could for CC right now.

by talonk on Jun 2, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

I know I’m being irrational and that there is always a price at which you go, “Yes. I would do that.” But just thinking about this made me really upset.

You can pry my Victor from my cold, dead hands.

Hard truth: Your eyes lie.

by AngG on Jun 3, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree. I think we need to take a step back from the ledge and calm ourselves. These players are still good. They’re struggling right now, but it’s too soon to give up on the season. We will be fine.

by gahnki on Jun 3, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up 0 recs