... really, a .437 batting average on balls in play is not regression to the mean - it’s regression so far past the mean that it can’t even see it with a telescope. It might be tempting to look at Lee’s 5.51 ERA in June and determine that he’s back to being what he always was, but the old Cliff Lee was never a 2 BB/10 K/1 HR pitcher. His core stats from June would fit right in with Johan Santana’s career line. June is simply not an example of Lee reverting to previous form.
over 3 years ago
Jay
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Yeah, it’s real easy to automatically revert to The Narrative rather than admit that The Narrative doesn’t apply any more.
Cliff Lee’s GB % is 46.5%, a huge departure from even his early career numbers. His walk rate is the lowest in his career by a large margin. His strikeout rate is equivalent with 2004. He’s given up a grand total of 2 unearned runs this season. The only things that are still a bit out of whack is a 78.1% LOB% (he’s usually around 72%) and a HR/FB% of 5.9% (usually around 10-11%). And those rates have come back to the earth recently.
I’d agree. And also add that he has done it without seemingly changing his basic “stuff” that much (if you look at his numbers on fangraphs), but rather by changing how he uses it and place pitches. I think little Cliffy Lee finally learned how to pitch.
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