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Quick Update: We're in Last Place

Just wanted to keep everyone up-to-date with the standings. We're in last place. In the AL Central.

I guess what I'm wondering is; what do we think caused this?
Was it one thing, something that could have been avoided? Was it a tasty melange of failure?

I go back and look at the offseason. Obviously, it's hindsight and it's easy to say now we should have added Quentin or something. But read this excerpt from Jay's chillingly prescient "Why We'll Lose" piece:

"Lack of quality depth. I'm serious. On our 40-man roster, we've got nine warm bodies for four corner spots -- Garko, Gutierrez, Dellucci, Michaels, Blake, Marte, Choo, Francisco, Aubrey and Snyder -- but only one of them (Garko of course) is a really solid bet to post above-average production in 2008.

In the bullpen, we started 2007 with at least four rookies waiting in Buffalo -- Perez, Mujica, Lara and Slocum -- young, talented, live-armed dudes who'd already gotten their feet wet in 2006. We don't have the same caliber of reinforcements to start 2008. It's basically Elarton, Mastny and a diminished Mujica."

Weigh in everyone. What principal factor has led to our last place at the end of June-itude? Or a mixture maybe.

Link 3 months ago Dry_iron_tiny NickFantana Comment 65 comments 0 recs |

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I’m going to go out on a limb and say injuries, ineffective bullpen and a lack of offense.

by PatBordersHelmet on Jun 26, 2008 11:04 AM EDT   0 recs

I would actually put more emphasis on the ineffective bullpen. The offense, while bad, has been middle of the pack even with the injuries. With an effective bullpen, even as poorly as this team has been hitting, they would be achieving something close to their pythagorean record. A 40-38 record right now puts them 2 games out of first place.

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jun 26, 2008 11:09 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Any more room out on that limb with ya?

by peter m on Jun 26, 2008 11:09 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m thrilled to know that you spent 4 minutes arduously researching your conclusions. I’m doubly thrilled you deigned to share them with us. Your response is exactly what I had in mind when posing the question.

Thanks.

by NickFantana on Jun 26, 2008 11:15 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No problem, but four minutes? I spent no more than the time it took me to type it up if you can’t tell. My point is that it’s fairly obvious to me what caused this promising season to go south. I’m dismayed as well, hence the need I must have felt to post this morning, but I’m not confused as to why the Tribe are where they are in the standings. Sorry I don’t have a well researched pie chart to explain why.

How’s this: 33% Injuries, 40% ineffective bullpen, 25% weak offense and 2% Dellucci.

That work for ya?

by PatBordersHelmet on Jun 26, 2008 4:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Don’t you want to add a fraction for Michaels’ half of the left field platoon early in the season?

by peter m on Jun 26, 2008 4:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I spent no more than the time it took me to type it up if you can’t tell.

Works just fine.

by NickFantana on Jun 26, 2008 5:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Injuries is a lame excuse. Every team has injuries, though the younger ones (Marlins and Rays, for instance) have fewer. You have to have guys in the pipeline ready to step in. If you don’t, you have to go out and sign the Fasanos and the Velandias. We should have seen that the pipeline was drying up a year ago.

Bullpen? Yes, horrific.

Offense? Anemic. You might be able to demonstrate “middle of the road” statistically, but that’s only because we’ll pound out a 15-2 win after losing all week by scores of 2-1, 3-2, 4-0, etc.

by ken from alexandria on Jun 26, 2008 11:19 AM EDT   0 recs

Well its not the 15-2 wins per se. I’d say its the hitting with RISP that has bolsted the runs per game stat. As a team our EQA is .249 and bad enough for fourth worst in the AL and 5th worst in all of baseball. So dismissing how poor our offense has truly been because the runs per game has us up to 7th in the AL, is doing a disservice to how hard these guys have worked at sucking when hitting. They’ve worked pretty damn hard to suck this year and deserve full credit for it.

by hans on Jun 26, 2008 4:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not every team has its second and third best pitchers and second and third best everyday players go down with injuries. It ain’t the same.

by Jay on Jun 27, 2008 11:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You’re right, although the Red Sox came close this year (Schilling, Matsuzaka and Ortiz). But, they have the money to have depth.

by peter m on Jun 28, 2008 11:19 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, I almost threw up last night when I saw that we have fallen behind the Royals. Of course, we still have a positive run differential which makes this all the more frustrating.

I would agree that most of the blame falls equally on the bullpen and the offense. The offense is bad because we have many hitters underperforming and pretty much nobody overperforming (I would say Grady’s doing exactly what we would expect). That’s a bad combination. Usually you have a couple guys that do worse than projected but a couple guys do better, so it evens out. We don’t have that.

by Buckeye Brad on Jun 26, 2008 11:26 AM EDT   0 recs

Offensively, we now see the importance that was Victor and Pronk mashing in the middle of this lineup. We still have not found the closer to replace the once effective Wickman. I think Masa can do it, but you won’t find out unless you hold a small lead in the ninth. These are key losses for small makret teams held together with bailing wire and duct tape.

by elsandito on Jun 26, 2008 11:33 AM EDT   0 recs

I forgot to mention the elephant in the room. We failed to move Grady down in the lineup.

by elsandito on Jun 26, 2008 12:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Is there statistical evidence to support such a move?

by peter m on Jun 26, 2008 12:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I found a lineup analysis model on the net. I plugged in some numbers. Grady should bat seventh behind Marte.

by elsandito on Jun 26, 2008 4:33 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

bullpen. end of story.

by Gradyforpresident on Jun 26, 2008 11:42 AM EDT   0 recs

I still can’t see how the offense gets a pass. If that hitting with RISP evens out, we’d be down toward the bottom three teams in runs per game.

by hans on Jun 26, 2008 4:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

But hitting with RISP is not the only luck factor involved in scoring runs.

by Jay on Jun 27, 2008 11:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’ve kind of hammered the point in game threads, but we are 1-34 (?) when trailing in the 8th inning. We are 2-11 when tied in the 7th inning. Its a lethal combination of poor hitting and some bad bullpen work. But, I think the batting deserves the majority of the credit.

Innings 7-9

.213 AVG .650 OPS

9th inning

.167 AVG .240 OPS (!!)

That’s even WORSE than the Mariners, who are considered the worst team in baseball.

by Toxicadam on Jun 26, 2008 11:46 AM EDT   0 recs

I think the Tribe’s abysmal performance in late innings is caused by the pressure so eloquently explained below by mcrose. This team is easily harmed, quite vulnerable to disappointment and frustration, and not quick to recover. The body language in late innings suggests defeat, hopelessness.

by odradek on Jun 26, 2008 1:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

This is all so subjective… can you really provide me a reasonable sample of instances where teams look giddy in the dugout when they’re down in the late innings? And even if you could, how could we have any idea what they really are feeling?

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 26, 2008 2:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It is subjective. I know you are exaggerating, but they don’t need to be giddy. It is my opinion this team is wrapped too tight. Why do they have a .240 OPS in ninth innings? Certainly they are facing good pitchers, that’s part of it. With all the obsessive malarkey about batters’ “making adjustments,” I think they go up to the plate already defeated. But that’s just dime-store psychologizing on my part.

My point: It is conjecture, but we don’t really need to know what they’re thinking. Scoring 11 runs all season in the ninth inning says enough.

by odradek on Jun 26, 2008 2:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think the most obvious case it Gutierrez. He has had his swing retooled and he has been coached to look for walks to the point that he looks completely lost when it is time for him to swing the bat

by Roger Dorn on Jun 26, 2008 2:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If you’ve followed his career in the minors — and the careers of other prospects like him — then you know that had his swing not been totally retooled, he would not be in the majors leagues right now. It may not be a perfect fix, but as a rule, guys like him can’t be fixed at all.

by Jay on Jun 27, 2008 11:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

To continue on with the subjectivity, I don’t think they’ve even looked as happy when they’ve won this year as they did last year. Granted it hasn’t happened often, but it always looks more like relief than joy.

by supermarioelia on Jun 26, 2008 3:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No pies!

by CBusSteve on Jun 27, 2008 12:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That’s really true. But that’s what happens when you come back only once in 35 times when trailing in the eighth inning.

by odradek on Jun 27, 2008 1:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

you know, if they’d let me I can go up and down the dugout around the seventh and eigth innings dolling out depression inventories and seeing if hopelessness is statistically proven to be occuring. I’d probably assign each player to watch the end of “Rudy” as a quick “pick-me-up”.

by hans on Jun 26, 2008 4:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Can you dispense pep pills?

by odradek on Jun 27, 2008 1:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

So you’re saying this team is a teenage girl with self-esteem issues?

by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Jun 26, 2008 2:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Kind of, I guess. They’re fragile. I think a lot of that defeatism comes from having a gas-can bullpen. That has to be discouraging.

by odradek on Jun 26, 2008 2:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I purposely left out the Freudian interpretations of these stats, because it’s kind of pointless. I can’t fathom what a major league ball player thinks or how he reacts in late inning games where a tie game suddenly turns into a 3 run game. Or how being shutdown for 7 consecutive innings after jumping out to a 3-0 lead and suddenly be in danger of losing that game effects your hitting. No idea.

But, I do know as a FAN .. it’s absolutely dismal to sit through these games and realize that the game is over if we fall behind late in the game. It evaporates your spirit and your will to watch these guys.

What a dramatic turnaround for a team that had so many late-inning heroics in ‘07. Even in losses that year, we would somehow find a way to scratch and claw and bring the tying man up to the plate in that 9th inning. Easily one of the most enjoyable seasons to watch in the past 8 years.

by Toxicadam on Jun 26, 2008 5:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don’t think it’s pointless, because I believe most players feel the same way fans do, only more so. There is a psychological aspect to the game, even if it isn’t quantifiable. When teams deviate wildly from expectations, I think it’s fair to look at other possible reasons.

The White Sox made a big deal about coming back and nearly beating the Indians on Opening Day. They subsequently said it proved they were going to fight and not give up, as they had in 2007. It seems to have inspired their surprising (and otherwise inexplicable) start. Isn’t this psychological? They lost the game, after all.

by odradek on Jun 27, 2008 1:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I blame last year. As in, the expectations going into this year being so high. They choked in the playoffs and apparently spent the winter nights going to bed with their hands still nestled around their throats.

I say that somewhat facetiously, but I do think that a Wedge team inherits his very strange combination of high pressure intensity and straightjacket restraint.

They just weren’t ready to play this year, literally going into opening day in denial – insisting that JoBo and Haf were in fine health. Jensen Lewis laughing off the fact that his fastball was nowhere near the velocity it was in ‘07. CC completely forgetting how to pitch. Gutz seizing up at the plate after a really great ST and opening day.

The injuries are what they are, but they don’t explain what happened this year. The team that was supposed to make a run for the series stepped in a bucket from the getgo.

by mcrose on Jun 26, 2008 12:16 PM EDT   0 recs

During the Wedge era, only last year’s team was ready to play out of Spring Training. Granted, the weather in Cleveland can bear some blame, but, really, Wedge has to take a significant piece of the blame. It’s happened too many times now to not be a characteristic of Wedge-helmed teams. The 2005 team was almost able to fully recover. None of his other teams have been able to recover from terrible early season play.

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jun 26, 2008 12:28 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

I agree. I’ve been thinking recently about how Charlie Manuel marched into Shap’s office wanting to know if he was going to be the manager or not, and walking out basically with a pink slip. I understood it at the time, out with the old in with the new, but I really think someone like Manuel would set a better tone for the major league club, someone that stands slightly apart from the extreme analysis and top down zeitgeist (both in temperamant and philosophy), rather than someone like Wedge who is not only a full partner in it but intensifies it further still.

Nah gah happen, I know – but I really think Shap needs to assert himself somehow, and break with the happy family deal and make some statement that he’s the boss and production does matter. I mean really, how can you handicap yourself by publicly stating that no matter how badly things go, the coaching staff is safe? Is the world going to end if Shelton gets moved back to roving hitting instructor and somebody else sits on the bench?

by mcrose on Jun 26, 2008 12:54 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

I must say mcrose, I have been reading your comments here and in the game thread and I think you are spot on with everything. I’ve had similar feelings, but don’t think I can express them as well as you have

by Roger Dorn on Jun 26, 2008 1:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree. This is really well put. And I’ve thought about what Chollie would be doing with this team. Probably having a bit of fun. Removing the sofa from the locker room until they started to hit.

by odradek on Jun 26, 2008 1:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks. But I wanna go on record as well that I’m an admirer of Shapiro and the system he’s put together. I still think the organization is capable of an extended run of good years if and when they get a consistent mix of motivation and mojo in the big league clubhouse that let’s them get the most out of a good talent pool. Not sure if Wedge is the guy for that yet – he’s definitely still on the “big league manager” learning curve imo.

by mcrose on Jun 26, 2008 3:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not sure I’m comfortable separating the fact that all these teams have been managed by Wedge, and the fact that all of them are ridiculously young. My intuition is that the composition of the roster would have a more measurable impact on early-season performance than the manager.

by fleerdon on Jun 27, 2008 2:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

this should be a fanpost?

by emil minty on Jun 26, 2008 12:17 PM EDT   0 recs

Pay attention emil – he leads with an article reference.

As to this year,I blame the FO and specifically their over reliance on sabermetrics to evaluate and project player’s performances. They need a coupla old school scouts mixed in with all those stat heads.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Jun 26, 2008 12:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

sometimes I get demoralized and think we overvalued ourselves, but we did have the best record in baseball last year with essentially the same squad. It was the FO’s great credit last year, and now they are to be blamed for the exact same approach?

by joeee on Jun 26, 2008 12:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes – it’s all about the Ws. In pro sports you can’t rest on your laurels.

I hate to get all negative, but right now that’s how I feel right now. Down in the minors the cupboard looks pretty bare – on the offensive side anyway. I don’t see any bats on the horizon – I’m pretty down on Marte and Barfield and I don’t see anyone else in the pipeline at third or second. Aside from BenFran and Grady, we got the biggest collection of AAAA outfielders in baseball, no potential DH candidates and a SS who can’t field his position. Our catcher appears to be entering the that brittle stage that all catchers eventually reach. However, I still think our first baseman will come around. Aside for Asdrubal I’m not too excited about any of our current crop of AAA offensive players.

So tell me, what has the FO done to fix this?

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Jun 26, 2008 1:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That’s been my argument for trading CC regardless of where we are in the standings

by Toxicadam on Jun 26, 2008 1:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sigh, I have to agree. I can only quibble at the edges: i.e. if you’re going to be sold on Francisco, you should include Choo, and let’s not sell Hodges short yet.

But the big questions (bigger than the CC one): we’ve been cutting Gutz out of the picture in the short term, are we going to keep him around next year? How long are we going to let Garko ride it out?

And the Peralta question, which is different only because I still believe he’s much harder to replace. I have to think Garko goes before Peralta. Actually, the more I think about, the more obvious this seems.

by dgcambridge on Jun 26, 2008 5:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

These two things are things that I see eventually conflicting with eachother:

Our catcher appears to be entering the that brittle stage that all catchers eventually reach. However, I still think our first baseman will come around.

I am a huge believer in Garko, and think Shelton has destroyed him as far as this year goes. Now, I would love to say that after a while V-Mart ends up our every-day 1B for a long time, but where does that leave Garko? I believe Gark can go 3-4 straight years hitting .300… and would hate to trade that away.

The 2008 Cleveland Indians: Home of the Triple Steal, Unassisted Triple Play, and not a heck of a lot more.

by westbrook on Jun 26, 2008 6:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Was thinking about this the other day. As I recall, the Shapiro plan was to field a team which could compete regularly from 2006 on. 2005 was an aberration - early maturation of Grady and Jhonny, Hafner and Martinez maybe outperforming their expectations, etc. - but since then, the pitching seems to have come along much faster, and the positional player talent seems largely to have petered out.

I can think of a handful of guys who were considered near sure-shots - Phillips, Aubrey, and Snyder come to mind, to a lesser extent Barfield and Marte - who for various reasons haven’t produced yet for this organization. My impression is that, had even a couple of these guys come through and/or stuck, we’d be looking at a very different squad right now.

by fleerdon on Jun 27, 2008 2:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I would say ipso facto the FO overvalued its talent. This team has won fewer games than the Kansas City Royals.

by odradek on Jun 26, 2008 1:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Between this possibility and the indisputable fact that the injury situation has been handled abysmally this season, I have a bunch more doubts about our front office now than I did in the offseason, when we submitted Shap’s name to the Vatican for sainthood.

Chuck, you’ve always been right about everything. Thanks for being our rock.

by NickFantana on Jun 26, 2008 2:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don’t know about the rest of these crazies, but at least you and I agree.

by supermarioelia on Jun 26, 2008 3:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I was thinking about the comment when I wrote that. I thought GFP said it though. Sorry brother.

by NickFantana on Jun 26, 2008 3:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’ve always been of the opinion that the more sainthood comments, the better. Classes the place up.

by supermarioelia on Jun 26, 2008 6:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think we used to have scouts…..until that mf’er Antonetti ate them and served their bones to his computer. Maybe you should submit a resume, Mr. Old School McNeverWrongaboutTravisHafner.

by NickFantana on Jun 26, 2008 1:04 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

“Look at the bones, man! Look at the bones!”

-Tim the Enchanter-

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jun 26, 2008 1:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

“E’s got a vicious streak a mile wide”

run away

(another geek)

by DocNo on Jun 26, 2008 1:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hire mcrose.

by supermarioelia on Jun 26, 2008 1:58 PM EDT   1 recs

wow….I thought a big part of why no one would sign him was that he was demanding a hefty salary. To offer to play for free and still not get signed…..that’s when you know you’re a serious d-bag!

by Nat on Jun 26, 2008 2:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

“Borris said Bonds even would play for free—offering to donate whatever salary he receives to purchase tickets for children”

wow. If this is true, not sure how collusion isn’t going on, even though yeah he’s a douche bag. And, how the Indians argue against it… I don’t know man, I don’t know….

by hans on Jun 26, 2008 4:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If it’s true if it’s true if it’s true…

by Voltaire on Jun 26, 2008 5:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

When did Bonds fire Scott Boras as his agent and hire this guy?

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Jun 26, 2008 5:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m putting this squarely on the offense. We can’t hit. We can’t score. Therefore, we can’t win, and only DO two things:

1. Say Hello To Last Place
2. Suck.

The 2008 Cleveland Indians: Home of the Triple Steal, Unassisted Triple Play, and not a heck of a lot more.

by westbrook on Jun 26, 2008 6:29 PM EDT   0 recs

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