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Jayson Stark's Rumblings/Grumblings

Tiny by Maverick05 on

Indians rumors of the week: Seems as if the only Indians anyone ever talks about hitting the market next month are Sabathia and Paul Byrd. But one NL executive says the Indians have also let teams know they would talk about several of their bullpen arms -- starting with Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez -- and enigmatic 25-year-old outfielder Franklin Gutierrez.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings

Anyone think there is some truth to this? if so, thoughts?

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Just below that he also says the Brewers are likely to be most aggressive in pursuit of Sabathia.

So if Sabathia winds up somewhere other than Milwaukee, said one baseball man who has spoken with GM Doug Melvin, “it won’t be because they’re afraid to give up their prospects.

by NickFantana on Jun 26, 2008 3:37 PM EDT   0 recs

Matt Gamel and Alcides Escobar in return. I’d do that.

by mcrose on Jun 26, 2008 4:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I gotta say, the way you described him as “reigning down unbridled annihilation” has me wanting to sign up where I can to get this guy on this team right now.

by hans on Jun 26, 2008 5:02 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

WELGARZ!!!!!

by gte619n on Jun 26, 2008 5:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gamel’s defense at third makes Ryan Braun look like Scott Rolen. LaPorta, by all accounts, is, umm…an “adventure” in the outfield.

Both can probably hit well enough to offset their defensive shortcomings, but it’s still something to consider.

As far as I know, Escobar profiles as a shortstop in the bigs. “I don’t think anybody looks at Alcides Escobar as a power-hitting shortstop by any means, but he will develop some strength,” Brewers scouting director Jack Zduriencik said. “He’s such a great defensive player ɠthat you just want him to become a complete offensive player.

“If any power develops, that will just be a plus to his game.”

http://www.al.com/stars/huntsvilletimes/index.ssf?/base/sports/120946052029760.xml&coll=1

If we decide to trade CC, Milwaukee makes perfect sense for both teams.

by Peter Bendix on Jun 26, 2008 5:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Unlike LaPorta, Gamel is a good athlete who can run and throw. He can follow the Braun route to the OF if he doesn’t pan out at 3B.

by mcrose on Jun 26, 2008 6:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

this seems to be an even-handed summary:

http://www.moundtalk.com/prospects/milwaukee-brewers-top-10-prospects-2008/

LaPorta & Gamel both sluggers with severe defensive shortcomings.
Escobar a glove wizard with questionable bat (AA stats: .326 avg., 6hr, 47rbi, .359obp, .794ops, 21sb, but a 18-52 BB-K rate.

Screw it . . . gimme LaPorta and Gallardo and sign the paper.

by DocNo on Jun 26, 2008 5:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That’d be awesome considering that a) I kinda like the Brewers and b) they’ve got some great prospects.

Despite all of my best intentions, I have not, in fact, grown up to be a debaser.

by zempf on Jun 26, 2008 4:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don’t know why you would trade Perez.

by gte619n on Jun 26, 2008 3:47 PM EDT   0 recs

... unless there was just a silly offer for him. Perez for Billingsly, straight up. GET IT DONE SHAPIRO.

by gte619n on Jun 26, 2008 3:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree. Why trade Perez? And, for that matter, why trade Betancourt. He’s less valuable now than at any time in the past few years. Unless they think he’s done and want to cut their losses, this makes no sense. If he reverts to form, he’s one of the very best late inning guys in the league.

by peter m on Jun 26, 2008 4:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Adding to that, I WOULD believe it if someone said they were shopping Kobayashi. He’s pitched well, but not great, and might be attractive to another team (so might bring something in return). Plus he’s substantially older than Perez (who also might bring value) and is right-handed.

by peter m on Jun 26, 2008 4:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I wonder if the Indians have concerns about Betancourt’s longterm health

by APV on Jun 26, 2008 4:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Then trading him would make sense. But, you’d have to think a GM for another team might wonder why we’re unloading him.

by peter m on Jun 26, 2008 4:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Unless Shapiro knows something we don’t know or he thinks he can get someone to severly over pay for him.

by KevinV on Jun 27, 2008 8:36 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’ll be shocked if Betancourt is traded.

I’d be a bit surprised if Perez were traded, but it’s possible some team makes a stupid offer for him — young lefty with great stuff and a very good track record, even did well in the postseason until his arm fell off. He is quite valuable to us, though, and relievers who are better than a crapshoot do not grow on trees at all.

by Jay on Jun 27, 2008 11:57 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I saw this article before it was posted here any my reaction was “Perez – no way.”

Betancourt wouldn’t surprise me… and neither would Gutz. Although, if I was another GM, I’d go hard after Gutz and watch him turn into an excellent player.

Without having to constantly look over his shoulder, he’d be great., IMO.

The 2008 Cleveland Indians: Home of the Triple Steal, Unassisted Triple Play, and not a heck of a lot more.

by westbrook on Jun 27, 2008 2:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Without having to constantly look over his shoulder, he’d be great., IMO.

Is this about Gutz? And our you serious? Are we really dismissing his struggles to the fact that he has a little competition for his job?

by dgcambridge on Jun 27, 2008 3:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes it’s about him…

There’s a difference between competition and stupid lineup contruction. The fact that Looch plays at all is not helping us or Gutz.

The 2008 Cleveland Indians: Home of the Triple Steal, Unassisted Triple Play, and not a heck of a lot more.

by westbrook on Jun 27, 2008 4:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Looch? He only plays against righties anyway. Starting the season, Gutz had the job, straight up. It’s Cisco that’s been hammering him.

by dgcambridge on Jun 27, 2008 4:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

This is silly. He was more or less handed his job on a silver platter last year, and he was given no real competition not just for a roster spot but for an everyday lineup spot this year — probably a mistake in retrospect.

If having to beat out Trot Nixon and Jason Michaels for a job is too much pressure, then he’s in the wrong business. Next you’ll tell me AbaCab collapsed because of Jamey Carroll.

by Jay on Jun 27, 2008 7:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Jamey Carroll intimidates me.

by elsandito on Jun 27, 2008 8:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It’s those eyes of his.

by peter m on Jun 28, 2008 11:20 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Another thought… maybe he’s going to position Gutz kind of like he did Coco, a CF on any other team. I’d just hate to see Gutz blossom into a 30 HR guy in the NL playing CF for somebody else.

by gte619n on Jun 26, 2008 3:55 PM EDT   0 recs

Yeah, that is Gutz’ primary value, as a CF. If we were getting a slugging OF in return I wouldn’t have any problem freeing Gutz up as part of the exchange. It’d be the best thing for his career as well.

by mcrose on Jun 26, 2008 4:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think it’s becoming reasonable to doubt that FG will ever become a 30-home run guy in the big leagues.

by odradek on Jun 26, 2008 4:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don’t know. I’d just remind you than in 271 ABs as a 24-year old last year at the ML level, Gutz hit 13 bombs. Take that to a full season (550 ABs), throw in some age/development, and I wouldn’t have at all been surprised to see 30 HRs. Of course this season is way off his projection.

by APV on Jun 26, 2008 4:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He’s trending down in virtually every category. He’s 25 years old, has had 597 at bats and is slugging .405 with 17 career HRs. This year he has a 0.76 GB/FB ratio. He certainly isn’t developing this year.

by odradek on Jun 26, 2008 4:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

But his Age+ is only 26.3

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Jun 27, 2008 9:03 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It was always reasonable to doubt it. The allure of Gootz was that there was always a small possibility that he’d develop into a decent contact hitter — and if he did, 30 bombs was pretty likely — and a very high probability that he’d be at least an excellent defender in CF with fringe-starter offense. In other words, worst case scenario, he’s still worth having, and best case is enticing though remote.

by Jay on Jun 27, 2008 12:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree with you. Seventeen homers in 597 ABs is okay, fringy but okay. Better than some of the others who have recently patrolled the outfield.

by odradek on Jun 27, 2008 12:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Also, I think I need to mention that I have no problem talking to myself in this thread.

by gte619n on Jun 26, 2008 3:56 PM EDT   0 recs

Or talking to yourself in general.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Jun 26, 2008 4:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

SO MANY VAUGHNS

by Voltaire on Jun 26, 2008 4:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No matter how far out of first we are, it’s cool. You know, it keeps us from getting shut out at our favorite hotels and restaurant-type places.

by gte619n on Jun 26, 2008 4:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Don’t steal home without it.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Jun 26, 2008 4:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If I admit I haven’t seen it this year, would that explain our performance so far?

by Voltaire on Jun 26, 2008 5:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If we can get Gamel or LaPorta, whoa. It makes sense for Milwaukee, obviously. They’ve got hitting for days.

I can construct an argument for trading Perez and Betancourt. It can be inferred that Shapiro is as big a proponent for reliever volatility as anyone in baseball right now. He seems to think that if he can get 11 or 12 live arms he’s got as good a chance as having a good bullpen as anyone outside of those anchored on truly dominant relievers.

He does not think Betancourt or Perez are truly dominant relievers. He thinks they’re live arms that are great sometimes and not great other times. So, if someone values them as any more than just live arms, Shap sees market inefficiency. He’ll happily ship off Betancourt and Perez, find a couple of vets in the offseason, get some of the minor league arms pushed into the bullpen and try to win bullpen roulette again.

This assumes that Shap is staying the course with what we’ve perceived as his method of bullpen construction. At this point, I hope we’re working on a new method.

by afh4 on Jun 26, 2008 4:35 PM EDT   0 recs

I’m in agreement that if you can get top talent in return for a bullpen arm you don’t think twice. I was astonished that Jim Bowden didn’t trade Rauch or Colome last year from a last place team. What is the point of holding onto a reliever performing at a top level on a garbage team? I am a huge fan of Perez and would want a haul before we moved him, but if the offer is there, you have to do it

by Roger Dorn on Jun 26, 2008 4:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Didn’t we just pick up a Rincon of some description? Let’s trade him for Brian Giles. I’d appreciate the symmetry.

by gte619n on Jun 26, 2008 4:53 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

The problem with bullpen roulette is, you never know when you will be pointing the barrel at your temple and Julio or Oldberto is sitting in the chamber.

by elsandito on Jun 26, 2008 4:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hmm. I’m trying to work this out in my head. I assume if Julio were shot at someone he would travel at approximately 350 mph and miss. Oldberto would probably hit you with about the force of an infant’s punch.

by afh4 on Jun 26, 2008 4:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

All of which says – PLAY THE GAME!

by Voltaire on Jun 26, 2008 5:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think the more important point is that he doesn’t want to spend big dollars on the bullpen (preferring to spend his limited resources on more predictable stuff). That’s why Howry was allowed to leave, why they didn’t go after guys like Linebrink, why we have closers like JoBo and Wickie. It’s also why we signed Masa—he wasn’t very expensive, relative to the market for experienced relief pitchers. Neither Raffie is very expensive or is likely to become expensive short term (although I’m not sure about Perez’ contract situation, to be honest). So, that would point to their keeping them, unless they think they’re going to get worse and stay that way.

by peter m on Jun 26, 2008 4:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

the case for trading Betancourt is much stronger than the one for trading Perez, simply because of the difference in cost

by APV on Jun 26, 2008 4:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

While the genius of some GMs, Bavasi for one, would argue against me, itsn’t it possible that Shapiro isn’t the only one that considers these things? Especially the Brewers’ Melvin, since he’s operating in a similar market?

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Jun 27, 2008 9:06 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No, that’s crazy. You can’t get a bag of balls for Betancourt right now, and we still have a good contract on him for 2009 and 2010. By “good contract” I mean that no matter what happens to him this season, you have to consider him to be worth at least an Oldberto deal for 2009, and we’ve got that — 3.35M, with a 2010 option for 5.4M. (And hey, by the way, anybody still arguing we should have guaranteed him a third year?)

Perez is cheaper but also far more valuable to us.

by Jay on Jun 27, 2008 1:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That me arguing for that 3rd guaranteed year before. I did that assuming it would cost around 3.5M. I still wouldn’t have a big problem with a guaranteed 2010 at 3.5M. But at 5.4M it is clearly a bad idea.

by KevinV on Jun 27, 2008 4:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

But it wasn’t necessary and wouldn’t have helped us. Hopefully at this point you can see this.

by Jay on Jun 27, 2008 7:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not loving this argument.

You’re basically saying Perez = Oldberto. I don’t think that’s true.

And even if it were true, we’re going to have Perez for another four seasons for about half the cost of four seasons with four different Oldbertos.

by Jay on Jun 27, 2008 12:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah I’m not loving it either.

But, in years like 2006 and 2008 trading somebody like Lewis when he looked good starts to seem like a pretty decent idea. Perez might be in a slightly different category based on his stuff.

I guess what I’m saying is that there seems to be some argument for valuing nearly all relievers at the same level. If somebody disagrees and wants to pay, I could see Shapiro doing it.

That said, it’s not the best idea I’ve ever had.

by afh4 on Jun 27, 2008 2:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Joe Sheehan again makes the argument (free content) that the Indians should be buyers right now and not sellers. I still disagree strongly.

by APV on Jun 26, 2008 5:01 PM EDT   0 recs

Is this one different? (off to click on the link and therefore answer my own question)

by Voltaire on Jun 26, 2008 5:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, that’s what makes 2008 even more maddening … our division is completely winnable. At least in 2006, you had this amazing run by the Tigers where they broke out and never looked back. This year, we are the NL Central.

BTW: Has anyone seen Peter Bendix and Joe Sheehan in the same room together? I’m beginning to get suspicious.

by Toxicadam on Jun 26, 2008 5:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Off point, but relevant still, after losing their last five games the Tigers did finish one game behind the Twins in ‘06.

by Ohiokie on Jun 27, 2008 7:46 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No, Rafael Betancourt’s ERA will not hover over 6.00 all summer.

Not so sure about that.

by odradek on Jun 26, 2008 6:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sheehan also has an interesting comment about the Twins, now half a game out of first:

The strange thing about the Twins’ success comes on the other side of the ball, where a team that ranks ninth in OBP, eighth in slugging, 14th in homers, and 11th in walks is third in the AL in runs scored. The Twins’ performance with runners in scoring position has been outstanding: .314/.386/.465. That’s not necessarily a skill, but it has an enormous amount of value, and it is the single biggest reason the Twins are in contention.

by odradek on Jun 26, 2008 6:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Raffy’s FIP is 4.25, and given his track record of success, I think I can confidently say that his ERA will not hover over 6 all year.

by ClarkM on Jun 27, 2008 8:47 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

oh i’m really excited for next week now

by Gradyforpresident on Jun 27, 2008 12:37 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

love the post . . . hate the new ‘profile image’.

by DocNo on Jun 27, 2008 2:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

that was for Jay, not GFP

by DocNo on Jun 27, 2008 2:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Okay, let’s try out a few …

Here’s a couple of shots of one of my other alter-egos … one ... two ...

Here’s Luke Perry in a Wahoo cap ... kinda random …

Here’s one for AngG and all the other nerds out there.

And a couple of the Dude for good measure … bemused self-importance ... and one smoking a J.

by Jay on Jun 27, 2008 2:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

YES

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 27, 2008 3:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

then ryan would have to change, too.

by Brick. on Jun 27, 2008 3:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Jul 3, 2008 10:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The Rubin pictures are underrated, but not as funny.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jun 27, 2008 3:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Speaking of Luke Perry, a friend of mine went to high school with Luke Perry in Fredericktown and told me that, before he was famous, he was the Fredericktown Freddie, the high school mascot which dressed in a bird suit and did colorful antics at basketball and football games.

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jun 27, 2008 4:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

1 & 2 way too spiritual.
Luke Perry could look more like he’s sniffin coke.

Judging from your selections, I would imagine something between this:

http://www.tvguide.com/images/pgimg/caroll-oconnor1.jpg

and this:

http://www.fluffytails.ca/ritter/graphic.jpg

(if someone could explain posting images to me, I would be most grateful)

by DocNo on Jun 27, 2008 5:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He’s underestimating the difference in the return we can get for C.C. by trading him June 30 rather than July 31 — possibly as many as