A Minor Weekend 6/27-6/29
by APV
on Jun 30, 2008 3:54 PM EDT
While the Indians continued to show just enough to not occupy last place all by themselves, the Indians minor league teams actually had a pretty nice weekend. A brief recap of some of the highlights:
Buffalo swept the first 3 games of a 4-game set with Scranton. Jordan Brown, who has been decidedly mediocre so far in Buffalo, had a strong weekend, going 4-7 with a 2B, 3B, HR and BB. He's had multiple hits in four of the last five games, including 2 HRs, raising his season total to 3. JAAAAson Cooper also had a big weekend, going 6-9 with 2 2Bs, a HR, and 2 BBs. Asdrubal has cooled off somewhat, but did hit a 3B while picking up two walks in the series. On the mound, Tom Mastny pitched 2.2 scoreless innings in two outings, walking 2 and K'ing 2. Juan Rincon made his debut yesterday, pitching a scoreless frame in the Bisons victory.
Akron took two of three from Reading. Everyone remember where you stuck your Trevor Crowe bandwagon?....it might just be time to start thinking about it. Crowe's not particularly young, has been injury prone, and has a very questionable performance record. But he's gotten a lot of attention and is currently going nuclear. Over the weekend he went 5-12 with a 2B, 3B, 2 HRs, 3 BBs, 0 Ks. Crowe's gone through hot stretches in the past, but they've mostly been marked by lots of singles. Over his past 10 games, Crowe has hit 4 HRs while putting up a .512 BA. In the 25 games he's played in June, his line is .400/.472/.629. That's still a small sample of games, but if Crowe could somehow turn back into a high-OBP, gap power, speedy guy...that could look mighty good in front of Sizemore in the Indians lineup...(oh prospects, why must I fall for you every time?). Bronson Sardinha (5-12, 2B, 2BBs) and Jose Constanza (7-12, 2B, BB), who are actually about the same age as Crowe, also had big weekends. JD Martin had the best pitching performance, throwing 2.2 innings of scoreless relief on Sunday while striking out 3. Martin actually has not allowed an earned run across his last 7 outings, covering 15.1 innings with 20Ks and only 4BBs.
Kinston joined Buffalo in winning all three of its games. The big offensive performance on Friday night was powered by Beau Mills, who went 3-4 with 2 HRs (11) and a walk. Jason Denham (5-11, 2 2Bs, BB, SB) and Nieman Romero (6-10, 2B, 2 BBs) were the other big offensive performers. Most of the success was pitching driven, though. Josh Tomlin (6IP,1H,0R,0BB,5K) and Hector Rondon (6IP,2H,1R,3BB,6K) carried Kinston to two of the three victories. A combination of reliever pitched 5 innings of 2-hit, 0-run ball in Kinston's other victory.
Lake County wasn't as successful as its other full-season cousins, losing 2 out of 3 in close games. As always this season, the story in Lake County is all about pitching. Kelvin De La Cruz (5.2 IP, 3H, 0ER, 1BB, 7K) and Ryan Miller (6IP, 2H 0R, 3BB, 4K) dominated their respective starts. Chris Archer '(4IP, 3ER, 5BB, 5K), after more success of late, was done in by his on-going control problems this time around.
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Our prospects just aren’t that good these days. I do like that Crowe is picking it up. It’s time to get him to Buffalo and see if he can maintain that high OBP and some of his power. He’s what, 26, time to get him moving.
How many more weeks until JD Martin has to go on the DL?
by Cols714 on Jun 30, 2008 4:08 PM EDT 0 recs
Ah, I see he’ll turn 25 this year. Still young enough to have an impact, if his power spike is real.
by Cols714 on
Jun 30, 2008 4:10 PM EDT
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He is not still young enough to have an impact.
Very, very, very few impact players are not in the majors by age 24.
by Jay on
Jun 30, 2008 8:29 PM EDT
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it’s not my intent to be Trevor Crowe’s water-carrier, but I think your statement is a little off-base. I’m not going to take the time to put together a list of guys who debuted in the bigs at age 25, but my guess is there are some, and they are probably disproportionately college draftees (like Crowe), who didn’t play their first season of professional ball till they were 22. The other big fraction of that group would be players who have been delayed in their development owing to injury. Crowe fits both of these categories (together with deciding to be injured AND completely suck for a full season). I’m not saying Crowe has much of a chance to be a significant part of the Tribe lineup in the future, but I think it’s silly to write his future off, knowing specifics about his development, by simply looking at his age.
by APV on
Jul 1, 2008 9:22 AM EDT
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There is a difference between being an impact player and having an impact. So yeah, Crowe isn’t going to be an impact player, but he is still young enough to be a starter for the Tribe. Especially with the lack of outfield prospects in the upper minors.
by Cols714 on
Jul 1, 2008 10:20 AM EDT
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I’m frustrated with the Crowe apologia. I’m glad to see him playing well, obviously, and it’d (pronounced “ettid”) be great if he pulls it together. But as for the things Adam mentions - late draft, frequent injuries - they seem to me to be factors which disfavor Crowe’s continued success, rather than reasons to view his stats with a forgiving eye.
I mean, Crowe’s career is basically a long, dry paragraph with a couple of exclamation points. He’s not going to hit for a whole lot of power, so he’s dependent on high contact, a good eye, and good mobility. Placido Polanco without the defense? That’s the upside?
by fleerdon on
Jul 1, 2008 10:31 AM EDT
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As I said, this isn’t really an argument I want to get into. I’ll just defer to my initial statements:
Crowe’s not particularly young, has been injury prone, and has a very questionable performance record…In the 25 games he’s played in June, his line is .400/.472/.629. That’s still a small sample of games, but if Crowe could somehow turn back into a high-OBP, gap power, speedy guy…
by APV on
Jul 1, 2008 11:02 AM EDT
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Responding to Cols714 and to Adam’s reposting of his original statements …
I don’t think any evaluators seriously believe that Crowe can be an everyday player anymore. If he’s ever more than a fourth outfielder, it will be a freak occurrence — and I think I’m stating not only my view, but the consensus view of the pros. To be fair, I don’t always defer to the consensus view of the pros, but Crowe’s high-toutedness never made any sense to me to begin with.
My objection to Cols714’s comment is only that he/she thinks that there’s something about Crowe that makes him a serious prospect as a future starter — what, exactly, prompts this view, other than the fact that you’ve heard of him? You complain about the lack of outfield prospects in the upper minors, but of course our upper minors have been flooded with outfield prospects for 2-3 years now — so what you really mean is that all of our outfield prospects are beneath serious mention.
There is no substantive indication that Crowe is any better than the rest of that very mediocre crowd — Cooper, Van Every, Goleski, Snyder, etc. There is nothing the least bit exceptional about Crowe’s performances to date, at any age and at any level. The 25-game line Adam cites would have to be his regular line, all the time, for him to be a good enough hitter to be an everyday player in the majors (as I’m sure you know), given that he’s not a particularly special defender. There’s no reason to think he can do that any moreso than Goleski or Snyder have. For that matter, Snyder was drafted not too many slots down from Crowe!
Finally, I simply have to call out this phrase … “if Crowe could somehow turn back into a high-OBP, gap power, speedy guy” ... Crowe could not possibly turn “back” into that, because he’s never been that in the real world, only in the (evidently) overactive imaginations of certain evaluators. He has been hyped as that, but he has never delivered — and in particular, he has never been close to that in the high minors, or in any setting when the competition wasn’t significantly younger.
Could Crowe turn into the player he was hyped to be, now, after years of failing to be that player in the slightest? Sure, he could. And Hafner could hit 50 home runs next year, too, and Lofgren could win the Cy Young. Lots of stuff could happen.
by Jay on
Jul 1, 2008 10:01 PM EDT
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I’m going to continue to dissent…not because I think Crowe is great, but because I think the criticism against him is being extended too far. Crowe was thought of highly by legitimate professional observers not that long ago. He was drafted out of high school by the A’s in 2002, then picked in the 1st round by Cleveland in 2005. In his first full professional season Crowe played his way up to AA after putting up a very impressive .449 OBP and stealing 29 bases in half a season at Kinston. Which by the way, is a high OBP speedy guy, maybe not so much gap power, just like he was in college (his junior year he put up a .477 OBP and stole 27 bases, as a sophomore he had a .416 OBP and stole 26 bases). He struggled a bit with a nagging injury and his adjustment to Akron in the final two months, but putting aside the injury for a minute (which, admittedly, is cheating), that’s not unusual. Last year was obviously bad. But if you recall, he was so terrible in the first half of the season (OPS under .450 if I recall), that to get to where he finished the season, he actually had a torrid finish, showed continued strong plate discipline, and put up 35 XBHs almost all of which came in the 2nd half. Now he’s got another half-season at Akron in which he’s got an OBP of .415 and an ISO of .181. He’s a little old (hard not to be when your first full season is at age 22) and he struggled mightily for half a season thanks in part to nagging injuries. He’s also put up at least two half-seasons of OBP +.415 with ISO +.150.
Is he Ty Cobb…obviously not. But he’s actually doing what he has to do to regain prospect status. And as I said at the beginning of all this, if he can maintain some semblance of this he re-enters the picture for 2009-2010.
by APV on
Jul 2, 2008 8:46 AM EDT
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I think the criticism against him is being extended too far.
Exactly. And while the Ty Cobb comparisons were obviously ridiculous, it is worth recalling that in the early days the comparisons were with Jacoby Ellsbury, his high-school rival. Yeah, we shoulda drafted Ellsbury instead. But “if he can maintain some semblance” of what he’s been doing for the past month, he looks like a legitimate left field candidate. Surely his glove is better than Ben’s.
by ken from alexandria on
Jul 2, 2008 9:12 AM EDT
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Here’s another comp that makes sense: Brady Anderson without the ‘roids.
by ken from alexandria on
Jul 2, 2008 9:55 AM EDT
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There’s a recent article over at BP (pay content) discussing Ellsbury’s recent slide in the past month or so. This kind of links to what Jay says below about the unliklyhood of high OBP low ISO players making and surviving in the bigs. In the article over at BP the author surmises that pitchers finally realized that Ellsbury wasn’t going to hurt them, and started blowing the pitches by him, starting him off with strikes and Ellsbury hasn’t adjusted (well the only adjustment he could make is to try and swing earlier in the count, as he’s not going to magically produce more power). Since pitchers at the ML level aren’t afraid of giving up a HR against a hitter like this, the BB rate drops, SB oppurtunities drop, the K’s go up, and the OBP drops (the players only valuable tool). If the player doesn’t develop some power (ala Johnny Damon) or doesn’t improve his contact rate (A guy like Jeff Keppinger as an example of someone who rarely strikes out) than the player won’t survive to be much more than a utility sort of guy. Alot of things have to work out for a guy like Crowe to make it and then to survive at the ML level.
by hans on
Jul 2, 2008 1:21 PM EDT
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I respect the dissent, and it’s well-argued. The main problem with it is that it’s more or less dismissive of the age issue — which is pretty typical whenever anyone (including me) decides he/she likes a prospect a little too much. The age factor is not arbitrary, and it’s particularly relevant for Crowe — a guy who seemed to embody OBP-theory run out of control, over-drafting a guy on the basis of OBP with no real projectable power, at college age, and who was probably going to end up as a corner OF.
OBP is the most important stat in baseball, but when that’s all you’ve got at 22, you’re not a projectable corner outfielder — you’re just not — if only because of the sheer statistical rarity that ANYBODY develops into a high-OBP low-ISO guy. You can’t name ten good hitters in the modern game who could be described that way — possibly not even five. So drafting Crowe was basically a statement that we were going to turn this not-very-projectable college kid into a type of valuable big-league hitter that very nearly doesn’t even exist.
He just has never (other than June 2008) shown the type of power needed to hit well enough to be an everyday player outside of CF — and since he’s about to turn 25, we pretty much know that’s not going to improve. Sure enough, we are now seeing a power surge, and this is almost certainly it for this kid. He’s having his power surge, fine. He’s not going to be a more advanced hitter — he was drafted as an already advanced hitter, and he’s already had two-plus seasons in the minors. So it all comes down to what he can sustain. If he can sustain how he’s hitting for the past month — or you’d like to say the past five months — then he joins the team as a Garko/Francisco type of player, with a ceiling of being a solid-plus starter for several years over his peak.
Finally, you know what I have to say about 22-year-olds in Kinston … and it was only 60 games anyway. For all we know, that was a fluke — and it sure looked like it based on his performance in Akron. Kinston Crowe = Akron Guthrie?
by Jay on
Jul 2, 2008 10:01 AM EDT
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Yep, it’s all about production – the rest is just speculation and hot air.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
by mauichuck on
Jul 2, 2008 12:53 PM EDT
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Did I mention that Crowe is four days older than Marte?
by Jay on
Jul 2, 2008 10:15 AM EDT
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Ah, hell, it wasn’t even a serious point.
The serious point would be, Chris Gimenez is potentially useful defensively (the new Blake!) and not ever being touted as an impact guy. If Gimenez is ever a starter, I’ll throw a parade, and I’m really just saying we should feel the same about Crowe.
by Jay on
Jul 2, 2008 5:16 PM EDT
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You have the resources to throw a parade?
I can’t even get the city to clear my permits.
by afh4 on
Jul 2, 2008 5:27 PM EDT
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I’m not saying much different, I just think the chances of throwing a parade have gone from zero to more than zero this season
by APV on
Jul 2, 2008 5:48 PM EDT
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but Hammy said I haven’t been watching if I think Marte is the solution, damnit!
by Roger Dorn on
Jul 2, 2008 1:54 PM EDT
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Amazing how Hammy can tell how bad Marte is just from watching him play dominoes.
by Jay on
Jul 2, 2008 5:17 PM EDT
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i think his domino play is what hammy is talking about in the booth. it’s the only playing time with a large enough sample size on which to comment with any authority.
by Brick. on
Jul 2, 2008 5:30 PM EDT
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it’s more or less dismissive of the age issue
I’m not dismissing it, certainly, but it’s not the ONLY issue to be considered. There are late bloomers: Guthrie is one, in fact.
by ken from alexandria on
Jul 2, 2008 12:24 PM EDT
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are either guthrie or phillips evidence of everything?
Some people digest more quickly than others. Brandon Phillips would be an example of this.
I once got a B on a Spanish quiz in high school. Guthrie is a prime example of this.
by Brick. on
Jul 2, 2008 12:35 PM EDT
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Very good. I plead guilty, but I was trying to respond to Jay’s assertion that Kinston Crowe = Akron Guthrie. I mean, considering age alone, Guthrie was a “prospect” only for about 15 minutes back in 2003. Andy Warhol lives!
by ken from alexandria on
Jul 2, 2008 3:10 PM EDT
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Jeff Stevens got a tough luck BS on Friday. There was some crazy fog rolling in when he pitched and a routine fly out to end the game, turned into a double w/ a game tying RBI. The game was called suspended and picked up the next day.
The curious thing was that Stevens wasn’t used on Saturday .. nor was he used the next day for a SO. Jensen Lewis got the save opportunity.
Does that mean Stevens could get a call up this week? Or just nothing? We will see.
by Toxicadam on Jun 30, 2008 4:10 PM EDT 0 recs
Poor grammar checking on my part there, ignore my sloppiness.
by Toxicadam on
Jun 30, 2008 4:11 PM EDT
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Last night Stevens blew a 4-1 lead in the ninth, as Buffalo lost 5-4. Looks like more than tough luck this time. Bummer.
by ken from alexandria on
Jul 1, 2008 8:49 AM EDT
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Hodges had a few loud outs in the Akron loss. One was a monster shot to dead centerfield. We were all sure it was going out. It was knocked down by the wind and caught at the wall. 400ft to dead center and a 10 foot wall there. It would have left the stadium completely if had just been a little left or a little right.
proverbial "moron in a hurry"
by 94neverout on Jul 1, 2008 8:16 AM EDT 0 recs
Josh Rodriguez is starting to play good ball as well. His triple slash numbers in June are: .291/.399/.444. That raises his yearly averages to: .271/..376/.386.
by ClarkM on Jul 1, 2008 8:34 AM EDT 0 recs
Thanks much, Adam, as always. Otras cosas:
-Brad Snyder, after a reasonably promising couple of weeks, is OPS sub-700 again …And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.
WEGLARZ! is still OPSing 800. The walk rate has come back to earth a little, and the power hasn’t quite taken off yet. The good news is that he’s showing only a minimal platoon split. The K rate is 22%. Not really the season we were hoping for - yet—but plenty to be excited about. He’s grown a lot in the last year; he may have some physical adjustments to make to accommodate his body mass. Just a thought.
-Dear John Drennen (629 OPS, 0 HRs), you are en route to being the guy who undermines Jay’s prospect evaluation philosophy. Please resume your promising trajectory. Sincerely, LGT.
-Jordan Brown mentioned recently that his knee hadn’t healed up as quickly as they had hoped, implying that his power stroke isn’t 100% yet. Perhaps this last weekend is evidence that he’s getting past that.
-Goedert: Not Kouzing it up.
-Nice to see Hodges continue to play pretty well, though I think the idea at his age is to smash his way out of AA, not to show gentle progress. Right? It’s been good; I’d like to see a little more (he said, thinking only about baseball).
-Reid Santos is still striking out nearly a dude an inning, but there are just too many flippin’ baserunners. Can we get some Hawaiian success in this system or what?
by fleerdon on Jul 1, 2008 10:21 AM EDT 0 recs
“Hawaiian success”
See Suzuki, Kurt and Victorino, Shane. And they’re from Maui too!!!!
Sorry boyz, my kid won’t be in the Indians’ pipeline for at least another four years.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
by mauichuck on
Jul 1, 2008 10:44 AM EDT
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Not Kouzing it up
More evidence that Kouzmanoff has been one of our best contributing prospects
by APV on
Jul 1, 2008 11:03 AM EDT
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remember when Drennen took Clemens deep on national TV? That was so great.
by ASP on
Jul 1, 2008 12:57 PM EDT
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Hodges was named to the futures game. I saw an STO interview with Ross Atkins yesterday, said he was talking to the coach of the Olympic team about Wes. Not that this means anything.
by joeee on
Jul 1, 2008 3:42 PM EDT
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Is there anyway to find out the Lake County starting pitchers in advance, other than by guessing they each take 5 games in between starts?
You know Selig? Ombudsman.
by rolub on Jul 1, 2008 12:07 PM EDT 0 recs
They list the probables the day off on the website, here. Beyond the day of, I don’t know if it’s possible other than keeping track of the order of the rotation.
by APV on
Jul 1, 2008 2:17 PM EDT
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I had no idea Jose Constanza was nearly 25 already. Here I thought he was a decent prospect too.
by mrich on Jul 1, 2008 12:39 PM EDT 0 recs
The minors are not offering me the kind of respite they need to. Wegz is stalling, which is depressing, and Mills has hardly ever taken off.
Hopefully we’ll get some offensive breakout in the 2nd half.
Sipp pitched in Kinston last night and went 1 scoreless with, if I remember right, 2 K’s.
The pitching in A and A+ is sick.
by afh4 on Jul 1, 2008 1:09 PM EDT 0 recs
Neither has had such a bad start that they can’t take off in the second half and make their season’s look awesome in retrospect
by APV on
Jul 1, 2008 2:15 PM EDT
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Agreed. But, well, you know. I want fire and brimstone in a wooden bat.
by afh4 on
Jul 1, 2008 2:36 PM EDT
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What ever happened to this guy?
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
by mauichuck on
Jul 1, 2008 2:51 PM EDT
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And OPS .917 and playin’ SS – Good God Adam there’s your fire and brimstone!!! The Fat Short Stops dayz are numbered!
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
by mauichuck on
Jul 1, 2008 3:20 PM EDT
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Yeah…I’m on the 23rd paragraph of my write-up of him (and his 4 games played) as we speak
by APV on
Jul 1, 2008 3:24 PM EDT
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Oh, and Chisenhall appears to have adjusted to wooden bats finally. He’s 8-12 with 2 2B, 1 3B, and a HR over his last 3 games. And 2 walks. And a SB.
And his pic is total baseball player:
by afh4 on Jul 1, 2008 1:12 PM EDT 0 recs
Geez, and I was hopin’ to see his mug shot.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay
by mauichuck on
Jul 1, 2008 1:15 PM EDT
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I can only hope one day the AP has cause to describe Lonnie’s neck as “sweaty” and “muscular.”
by fleerdon on
Jul 1, 2008 11:31 PM EDT
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APV, as always a great write-up.
May I ask of one change though? When posting the scores, any way we can have the winning team first? I always get my hopes up to see each team with sweeps, only to look closer and see that they lost 2 of 3. If someone is just glancing through they may not notice that the teams lost.
Or maybe I am being too picky. Meh.
by talonk on Jul 1, 2008 2:21 PM EDT 0 recs
Perdomo to Akron, Pestano to Kinston. Sipp is making a pitstop in Kinston as well. We may actually see him make his ML debut late in the year if his rehab continues to go well.
by mcrose on
Jul 2, 2008 12:48 PM EDT
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Even if the Tribe was off yesterday and unable to lose, the minor-league system made up for it by going 0-6. Nice to see everyone on the same page.
In good news, Sipp has now thrown 6 innings without giving up a hit. Also, check out Abner Abreu down in the GCL. Atkins had some good things to say about his potential. He doubled, tripled, and homered yesterday. Like his size at the age of 18.
by TribeJay on Jul 4, 2008 11:42 AM EDT 0 recs
Hello TribeJay,
Yes, I noticed too that the farm system went 0-6 – a rarity in terms of all the farm teams losing on the same day. Those days, and the days when the farm system goes 6-0, are rare indeed (I usually keep track of the records, and you can count on one hand during a season the times a system goes 6-0 or 0-6 on any given day).
I too noticed Sipp’s dominance to this point (which you’d hope to see being that he was at AAA before he was injured, but the outstanding performance should just hasten him back to AA Akron and AAA Buffalo that much quicker, with him having a decent to solid chance of making his ML debut before the season is out).
I also noticed Abreu – he’s very intriguing. In fact, reading his profile on MinorLeagueBaseball.com, he just missed hitting for the cycle twice in 2007, and now again in 2008. He certainly seems to have some good hitting skill at such a young age and should be one to keep an eye on as he moves up in the system.
Another one that caught my eye was RHP Alexander Perez, who is also 18-YO and with the GCL Indians – you can see his season stats here. I think he’s another one to keep an eye on.
Despite this disappointing season and some disappointments in the farm system to this point:
- Miller and Lofgren both injured, and Lofgren struggling mostly before he was injured;
- Crowe being inconsistent and dealing with injuries himself;
- Weglarz/Mills/Goedert/Drennen all stalling a bit at High-A Kinston, etc.
There have been some bright spots as well:
- Sipp’s strong recovery to this point and reports that he is virtually back to 100% velocity-wise before the injury, according to a report I seen on TheClevelandFan.com recently;
- Abreu and Perez standing out at such a young age;
- Rondon doing very well in the Carolina League at age 20;
- Stevens continuing to pitch well after a breakthrough season last year;
- Huff doing quite well and posting a higher K/9 IP rate than I expected;
- Even Perdomo, despite being older than ideal (turned 24-YO in April and just reached AA), transitioning well to this point at AA, and with a mid-90s power arm (according to reports I’ve heard and read), has likely put himself on the prospect map, especially since our current bullpen is in a state of flux.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
by indiansfan on
Jul 4, 2008 7:02 PM EDT
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