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Westbrook – Tommy John Surgery?

Listening to WTAM this morning...they reported that Jake is headed to LA for a visit with Dr. Lewis Yokum to get a second opinion. Tommy John surgery was mentioned in the report since Yokum is the guru of this kind of surgery. All of this is speculation right now, but it certainly isn't sounding good. Our pitching depth is certainly being tested this year...any other team would be dead in the water with the amount of injuries that we have endured so far. Let's hope Sowers can step into the Indians rotation and continue pitching like he has been in AAA.

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That’s why I said two days ago….”sore right elbow” is a very ominous phrase for a pitcher. Losing Westbrook for the rest of this season is a different thing than losing him for both this season and next. Losing Westbrook for next season means we likely have 3 vacancies to fill in our starting rotation from our opening day 2008 variety.

The urge to do some dramatic reconfigurations is getting more and more realistic…

by APV on Jun 4, 2008 9:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree that the times they are a changing.

One thing I’m struck by is that the Indians haven’t been very decisive this year about dealing with injuries to key players. Hafner’s shoulder, Vic’s hammie and Westbrook’s elbow have all been examples, in different ways, of wishful thinking. I was surprised to learn that they let Sowers pitch on Sunday, knowing that Westbrook was hurting and might not pitch on Tuesday, and then turn around and send him to a consultant for what might be a more serious injury. In all of these cases, it almost seems as if they were hoping it would be okay, waited, and then had to scramble in various ways to deal with the fact that it wasn’t okay. I don’t recall this kind of thing happening often in the past with this management. I get the feeling they see a window of opportunity closing and they’re hoping against hope it’ll stay open. That might affect their willingness to reconfigure in the short term.

by peter m on Jun 4, 2008 10:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I always get a little nervous when veteran pitchers all of a sudden develop new life on their pitches, the way Westbrook did during Spring Training…

by APV on Jun 4, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gah! Adam! Please lay off the ominous ellipses! It’s like every post of yours ends with a dramatic cello sting.

Can you elaborate a little, if you get a chance? “Dramatic reconfiguration”—Sabathia and Byrd seem to be our best chips, and I can see Garko and Dellucci having some value on the market. But for whom? And is this even what you had in mind?

by fleerdon on Jun 4, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But I love the dramatic ellipses. Although, I really intend them more as an expression of me thinking aloud, with my thoughts somewhat unfinished.

My thoughts on dramatic reconfiguration mean that if they get bad news on Westbrook and Shapiro is really faced with a 2009 starting rotation of Carmona, Lee and three other guys (with Laffey and Sowers presumably close to locked into two those spots), he’s going to recognize that, coupled with our current offensive struggles, this is a very different team than the 2005 or 2007 versions. First, Shapiro’s obsession for depth means that the chances of us trading a starting pitcher at AA and above goes to somewhere near zero unless we receive an equivalent pitcher in return. The starting pitching depth chart for 2009 with those three gone is something like Carmona, Lee, Laffey, Sowers, and then some combination of Slocum/Miller/Huff. Neither Miller or Slocum have shown the ability to stay healthy, and I don’t think Miller’s pitched enough innings over the past two seasons to get a regular rotation slot. That’d be putting a lot of pressure on Huff were he to take the spot. I could see Shapiro bringing in a veteran, post-injury Paul Byrd type. I could even see them offering an extension to Byrd if he’s still getting people out with his 84mph jello pitches come September. Maybe Elarton will be kept around and given a shot at returning to the rotation. Also, I could see Peralta being included in a trade. I still view Peralta as one of our better trading chips. He’s an above average hitting shortstop, which is a nice luxury. But on our groundball heavy staff (which it is even without Westbrook), that luxury probably has more value for other teams than ours. I don’t know though…this is all extremely premature speculation.

But I do think if Westbrook goes down with TJ and we don’t have a great week, changes are coming sooner rather than later and those changes will be bigger rather than smaller. All with the intent that we will still be a contending team in 2009, 2010 and 2011.

by APV on Jun 4, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for replying. Peralta I hadn’t considered. His production-to-salary ratio is kind of ridiculous. But then I guess, as with Swisher, that’s what makes him a useful chip.

For whatever reason, I feel as though this mess makes it MORE likely C.C. gets flipped, rather than less. But then I may just be using the confusion as an opportunity to project my own thoughts onto the team.

by fleerdon on Jun 4, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that there could come a point where flipping CC is an obvious choice. But I don’t think there’s any rush to flip CC early in the process. Even if we decide to start making changes early, the AL Central is craptacular enough that we might go from “sellers” to “buyers” in the course of the trade season (June-July).

by APV on Jun 4, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, really…

Hard truth: Your eyes lie.

by AngG on Jun 4, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, THAT ellipsis came across as more disco whistle-sounding.

by fleerdon on Jun 4, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You’re a synesthete? What does “Westbrook’s elbow” sound like?

Is anyone here telepathic?

by jhon on Jun 4, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think Westbrook’s elbow sounds like anything. It’s an elbow.

by fleerdon on Jun 4, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’d say “creaky” at this point, Dr. Yokum has a better ear than I do though, naturally.

by Ohiokie on Jun 5, 2008 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My attitude is generally pretty dancey, so I can accept this.

Hard truth: Your eyes lie.

by AngG on Jun 4, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wedge says Indians making plural moves today including sending Mastny down,

by palcal on Jun 4, 2008 10:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The PD (print version) this morning said that Lewis was told he was up for one day and that they want him back in Buffalo where Scott Radinsky has been working with him with what they describe as promising results. So, he may go too. I think the Indians have a spot on the 40-man (I counted 39 just now), so they could call up Bauer and add him. Perez (of the many fingers) is also on the 40-man, and he’s done okay at Buffalo so far. We might see one or both of them, although Sowers will be called up by the weekend to replace someone.

by peter m on Jun 4, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I take it back about Perez. Two good outings, two bad. Sounds like Julio.

by peter m on Jun 4, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well it does present an interesting worst-case scenario for 2009. Let’s give in to our fears and look at our rotation if Westbrook has Tommy-John.

Sabathia (free agency), Byrd (free agency), and Westbrook (TJ recovery) are gone.

Our rotation’s top 4 looks like:

Carmona
Lee
Laffey
Sowers

First of all, that’s a lot of lefties. It’s also not a lot of Ks, but I can live with that if the rotation will put the ball on the ground at an above average rate (Is Lee going to keep doing that?)

The first name for the 5-spot is Adam Miller. I guess. He’s going to be almost a year behind (again) his development at AAA, although he was handling minor league hitters pretty well before the surgery. Of course that was only 25-ish innings. And let’s face it, regardless of his 2009 health I’m not going to invest a lot in Adam Miller.

Then there’s Slocum, who’s given up 51 hits and 30 walks in 49.1 IP for Buffalo this year. Huff and Lofgren could both end 2008 in AAA on the fast track to Cleveland, but Lofgren has treated AA hitters about the same as Slocum is treating AAA hitters.

This rotation looks better than a lot of big league clubs, but it doesn’t inspire me with too much confidence. Especially when I think of depth. If 2008 really goes down the drain - the hitting I think can be fixed, but there’s not much you can do with injuries - I’d look to get a ML-ready pitcher back among other things in a trade for CC. At this point you’re not getting a Kershaw (well, you never were), so it’s curious to see how this plays out.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jun 4, 2008 10:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What team in their right minds trades a major-league ready pitcher for three months of C.C.?

I don’t know that TJ is all that likely for Westbrook. As I mentioned last night, these specialists do many surgeries other than TJ, and most surgical consults don’t result in surgery anyway.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2008 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well that’s kind of my point. The best we can hope for is a Huff-type guy who could either be barely ready in 2009 or a couple of months away.

Or of course we could hope for a team not in their right mind.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jun 4, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point.

I guess my point would be, we’ve already got a Huff.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But don’t we usually make our hay by having two or three Huffs, hoping for a Laffey out of them?

by NickFantana on Jun 4, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, Laffey was more of a sleeper. Huff is a first-round guy, he was just injured before.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My bad. I forgot Huff was a first-round guy.

by NickFantana on Jun 4, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think there’s a ton of space between a Kershaw type guy and a Huff type guy.

Maybe Trevor Cahill of the A’s?

by Joe. on Jun 4, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay, flip it around.

Let’s say a week goes by, and we’re only two games back. Would you flip Huff for Halladay?

by Jay on Jun 4, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In a heartbeat.

by Joe. on Jun 4, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay, now let’s say Halladay walks at the end of the season. Still doing it?

And by the way, it’s probably not even just Huff.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, because at some point you have to stop playing for tomorrow and play for today.

I fear that’s the problem that sets in for small market teams, that they covet their prospects too much for too long a period of time and then realize that a lot of them are no longer prospects. There’s a paralyzation that sets in that makes every deal seem like it’s just not good enough … that you are dealing away a certain future when clearly that future is anything but certain.

My yes is qualified, however, in that it’s clear we don’t need Halladay as much as a middle-of-the-order type hitter—at least for this season should we find ourselves in contention.

I tried to make Paul Reuschel my Avatar, but he didn't fit into the box.

by emd2k3 on Jun 4, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, realistically, the market for a Halladay would be such that giving up a Huff alone would not even get it done … so I don’t know if this is a problem that small-market teams really have, in real life, since the deals available are actually even less attractive than this. I don’t even really know if it’s all that particular to small markets, as the richest teams have also eventually regretted making trades like that.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Absolutely there’s a ton of space between a Kershaw and a Huff. Casey’s grit couldn’t fill that canyon. I hope that’s not what it seemed like I was suggesting.

What I meant is that there’s no way now to pry a Kershaw from anyone (with a decent hitter on top of it) for CC, so the best we can hope for is a high-ceiling talent who could be ready by, say, May of 2009.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jun 4, 2008 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Huff and Lofgren could both end 2008 in AAA

And it would seem, after typing this, that Huff has just been promoted.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jun 4, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lofgren needs to start throwing fewer balls ASAP. He’s far from a finished product.

by APV on Jun 4, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, but Huff, on the other hand, if his numbers are for real — and there’s no real indication that they’re not — then he’s already an average major-league starter, and his second half of 2008 will be about “finishing” as with Sowers in the first half of 2006. He basically is already the 6th starter for 2009.

The problem for this season is not wanting to use up an option on him — by calling him up and then later sending him down — which really should be avoided if at all possible. We don’t even need to roster him this offseason, so if we call him up, it means not only that we almost certainly burn an option, but also that we protect one fewer guy from Rule 5.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

by APV on Jun 4, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can’t believe I keep admitting to this, but listened to Brinda’s post-game show a bit while in bed. He was befuddled as to how the Indians didn’t have any starter they could throw out there from either Akron or Buffalo. I wanted to call in and scream about the 40-man roster, but I’m above that. Maybe.

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Jun 4, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They clearly chose not to. They had Slocum available.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What have we told you about listening to Brinda?

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jun 4, 2008 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice guy. I’ve met him. He forgets details sometimes.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jun 4, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What if Sowers suck it up though? And Huff goes to AAA and keeps dominating. Don’t you give him a look in the middle of July?

by Joe. on Jun 4, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If we’re out of the race? No — there’s just not enough reason to. By that point he’s been dominating in Triple-A all of five weeks.

If we’re in the race? Maybe — but you try to set it up that you don’t have to send him back down. That just means keeping him in the majors from mid-July to the end of August, when rosters expand, so it’s only six weeks, should be doable.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I definitely meant if we’re still in contention. No point whatsoever if we’re not.

by Joe. on Jun 4, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who are you, Bill Bavasi?

I just loved that they felt the pressing need to burn Jeff Clement’s clock and then give him 30-odd at-bats before shipping him back down. Kudos Marineros!

I tried to make Paul Reuschel my Avatar, but he didn't fit into the box.

by emd2k3 on Jun 4, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah that comparison makes no sense at all. If we’re in the race, Huff might get his shot in Cleveland and it won’t be a bad idea.

by Joe. on Jun 4, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have to believe that someone is considering making Raffy L a starter again. Not saying its a good idea, just that he was a decent starter in the minors and could be a candidate for next year.

by JK in CBus on Jun 4, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’d bet good money that this is not being considered at all. Our bullpen has too many holes anyway, and as a starter prospect, he was pretty fringe.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sipp & Donnelly will both hopefully be healthy next year. If they sign a few FA relievers in the off-season you don’t think it would be considered?

by JK in CBus on Jun 4, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, because Perez was never a good starter prospect. Even when he was starting in Akron, they were saying that he was only starting to pile up more innings, that he’d be switched to the bullpen by the time he hit Triple-A.

That, and bullpen depth is a problem that won’t be going away, and Perez potentially can be a good-to-great late-inning guy for several years. He really is the new Betancourt.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about moving Perez back into a starting rotation spot, would this even be a possiblity. He was a starter in the minors before the year he broke through on the Indians.

by hans on Jun 4, 2008 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And I see someone has already posted this idea….as I was

by hans on Jun 4, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So I’ll give you a different answer … the Indians had every chance to do this last year, and they chose to clear a 40-man spot for Jason Stanford instead, knowing they’d have to DFA him a few days later. I have no reason to think they’d do differently right now — and Jason Stanford is waiting in Buffalo.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jason Stanford is banished to a lifetime toiling in AAA with the Indians and will never reclaim his spot in the rotation he had oh so many years back.

by hans on Jun 4, 2008 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You know one of the points I never got around to making in the original post: Westbrook getting TJ would do us in doubly because it handcuffs us from trading any SP depth for a bat this year, because we would barely have enough starters as it is next year.

Of course the Shapiro M.O. would be to find a reclamation project to fill in, but we’d probably do that without trading anyone away in the first place.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jun 4, 2008 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

verdict: 2008 kind of sucks.

Hard truth: Your eyes lie.

by AngG on Jun 4, 2008 11:03 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What makes Tommy John qualified to do surgery? You’d think the Indians could afford someone better.

by Toxicadam on Jun 4, 2008 11:05 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

FIRE LONNIE SOLOFF

by supermarioelia on Jun 4, 2008 11:13 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This is more or less the worst comment I’ve ever read.

by fleerdon on Jun 4, 2008 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

C’mon, t’was bathed in sarcasm.

by supermarioelia on Jun 4, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As was mine. Or ‘twas.

by fleerdon on Jun 4, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have no idea if they’re just being extra careful, but generally you don’t go right to the TJ guy for an opinion if its just a mild strain that requires a bit of rest. Let’s say rest is indicated – judging by Martin/Stanford/Sipp/Miller, they shut’em down for a couple months before trying again, waiting for round two before surgery is really indicated.

I’m wondering if Jake ends up being lost for the year and possibly more if that puts the nail in the coffin for resigning CC. That would be 2 for 2 in big contracts having close to zero return (short term at least) and it seems the possibility of going 3 for 3 with the biggest might be simply too much risk, period. As in, putting the franchise at risk.

In that case CC would almost have to be traded to reload at least somewhat to address glaring holes offensively that won’t be filled from within.

by mcrose on Jun 4, 2008 11:34 AM EDT reply actions   2 recs

We were unlucky with Hafner and even more unlucky with Westbrook (again assuming the worst). Shapiro knows this and there is absolutely no reason why Hafner and Westbrook would effect Sabathia’s contract negotiations. Except, of course, that there is less money available to throw at him.

by Ryan Kelsey on Jun 4, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think they have to affect his negotiations. Not because they believe that bad luck means CC is more likely to get hurt, but for the simple fact that they literally can’t afford unproductive big $$ contracts. If Westy and Haf are producing they can more afford the risk of CC not performing at $20 million a year. With them not, the chance that CC gets hurt could pretty much put the franchise in a straightjacket, with no dollars or players to move for an extended period.

by mcrose on Jun 4, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t know. The risk of a CC signing doesn’t change. If CC bombs while getting paid 18 million/year- that will be pretty devastating regardless of what Westy and Hafner are doing. If we look at Hafner and Westbrook’s contracts as anything besides fixed cost it would be as devastating- We are paying them what we are paying them no matter what, that decision was made and there is nothing that can change that, except trying to trade them, and I don’t think that is an option right now.

Plus, while it is apparent that we are not getting the best possible output from Westbrook and Hafner, it is still relatively early in their deals. If Westbrook comes back in a month, or even in a year and pitches at a level near his career ability and if Hafner can bounce back to something like 2007 with the potential to be something between 07 and 06- we aren’t getting zero from our investment, just less than we hoped.

by Ryan Kelsey on Jun 4, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

CC is a safer bet than either Westbrook or Hafner. And Westbrook’s contract looks cheap sitting next to a Carlos Silva deal.

Hafner looks to be the only true bum deal so far (Just citing his comps and his precipitous drop in production.)

I tried to make Paul Reuschel my Avatar, but he didn't fit into the box.

by emd2k3 on Jun 4, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m just saying with this team in this market, you can’t treat the big contracts in isolation. Production matters. For every big contract, however team friendly, that doesn’t work out, it decreases mobility in terms of dollars and trade moves. No hindsight involved – I was real happy with both Jake and Haf’s signings – but when the season ends and both guys futures for next year are in real doubt, this franchise is not going to double down in the hopes of getting even.

Of course, come mid-July trade season, some bet will have to be made, even if its the most cautious one – doing nothing.

BTW, I was actually for signing Hafner over CC, if it was either or, because we have pitchers and we don’t have sluggers in the system. That’s more apparent now that Pronk has swooned. At some point it seemed that was part of The Plan – dealing players whose success and market value priced them out of Cleveland, in exchange for players to feed the pipeline and shore up the weaknesses in your roster.

by mcrose on Jun 5, 2008 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sipp is going to be in the 2009 rotation.

by afh4 on Jun 4, 2008 12:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

that says rotation, right? not bullpen?

by Gradyforpresident on Jun 4, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

See: Chamberlin, Justin.

by gte619n on Jun 4, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But what is Sipp’s real name?

I tried to make Paul Reuschel my Avatar, but he didn't fit into the box.

by emd2k3 on Jun 4, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Joba. But his middle name is Marcel.

by odradek on Jun 4, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Marcel S(h)ipp?

The 2008 Cleveland Indians: Home of the Triple Steal, Unassisted Triple Play, and not a heck of a lot more.

by westbrook on Jun 4, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Shapiro is quoted in the PD this morning (and on radio) as not expecting a good outcome from Westbrooks visit to LA (and there’s reference to their having some knowledge about the problem already). Whether it’s TJ surgery or not, sounds like he might be out for a long time, so Sowers it is, at least until Carmona returns.

by peter m on Jun 5, 2008 10:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I just keep making little mournful “Jaaaaaake” noises and frowning the more I hear about this.

Hard truth: Your eyes lie.

by AngG on Jun 5, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Like Anthony Michael Hall screaming Jake when he’s trapped under the glass table in Sixteen Candles

by cheech99 on Jun 5, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I love these classic 80s movie references on this site … awesome!!!

by talonk on Jun 5, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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