Trade Everyone! - The Outfield + Pronk

by Ryan on Jun 7, 2008 8:01 PM EDT in Events

TRADE EVERYONE! an epic survey in six parts
1	The Starters by Ryan
2	The Infield by Jay
3	Wait. What? by Andrew (afh4)
4	The Prospects by Adam (APV)
5	The Outfield + Pronk by Ryan
6	The End by Jay

Now it's time to trade the outfielders, and it's not an easy task to figure out who should stay and who should go. Besides the one guy.

GRADY SIZEMORE

$3.0M salary, signed through 2011, controlled through 2012 (team option)

PRO: ...

CON: Sizemore is one of the most valuable players in baseball, taking into account age, ability, upside, consistency, contract status, and (dare I say the words) intangible value. Trading him at this moment would be franchise suicide.

CON: OK, let's get specific. Grady Sizemore is in his Age 25 season, and he's already had three full seasons under his belt. His career OPS+ is 124, and his lowest full season OPS+ is 122. His on-base percentage has increased each season. He's gradually become a better base stealer as his young career has unfolded. That's on top of the things that have pretty much been there from day one: his defense, and his power. He's just starting to enter his prime, that period where his power should mature while he's still young and athletic enough to be a terror on the bases and a vacuum cleaner in the field. And the Indians have him under control for most of that period.

FRANKLIN GUTIERREZ

$404K salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2012

PRO: Because of the guy I just mentioned, Gutierrez is a right fielder with the Indians. Other teams will think of him as a plus center fielder with a very good arm, and won't care as much about his offense. And as Gutierrez is several years from getting expensive, he's that much more valuable to clubs with a hole in center.

PRO: He's not hitting enough to start in right field, so the Indians might be better off getting center fielder value out of him by trading him. The only problem is that he may be the best right fielder in the system right now....

CON: The Indians don't exactly have a surplus of power-hitting outfielders to replace Gutierrez, and would see a huge drop-off in outfield defense no matter who'd they plug in.

CON: Still only 25, and hasn't really had consistent playing time until this year. The power potential is there, and the defense is good enough to keep him in the lineup even if he isn't hitting. And even if he doesn't hit, he'd still be a fine fourth outfielder for the next couple years.

SHIN-SOO CHOO

$383K salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2013

PRO: Kind of redundant, with Ben Francisco being the better hitter and Franklin Gutierrez the better fielder.

PRO: Not a center fielder, and would have to be platooned if he does play regularly. From a tactical standpoint, it makes sense to play him in right field to take advantage of his arm, but Gutierrez has a better arm, not to mention range. Of the outfielders mentioned here, he's the one the Indians would miss the least.

CON: He's relatively young (25) and cheap, and that's worth a lot to a team that suddenly has a lot of big contracts on the Disabled List.

BEN FRANCISCO

Minimum salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2013

PRO: As with a lot of his young outfield brethren, Francisco would fetch a lot of interest because of his low service time. But Francisco has a more consistent track record of hitting through the minors and his little time in the majors. He would be very enticing to a team looking for an offense-first corner outfielder.

CON: If Francisco played for another team, don't you think we'd be clamoring for him? During the offensive blackout in May, Francisco was one of the few in the lineup who consistently hit for power. That he's hitting second or third in the lineup just weeks after his callup says volumes about the 2008 offense.

CON: Even though there isn't much upside to his game and his defense is decent at best, the Indians don't have any better options at the corners right now.

DAVID DELLUCCI

$3.75M, signed through 2009, controlled through 2009 (free agent)

PRO: Francisco has outclassed him at the plate, and Dellucci's defense (especially his arm) has always been a liability.

PRO: His contract isn't an albatross, but it'd be nice to free up $4M for next year.

PRO: Is 34, and corner outfielders who rely mostly on power don't age well.

CON: Is a great guy in the clubhouse, which shouldn't be completely ignored.

CON: With Travis Hafner on the DL, he's a good fit as the DH; the Indians can put his power in the lineup without worrying about other teams running on his arm.

TRAVIS HAFNER

$8.05M, signed through 2012, controlled through 2013 (team option)

PRO: Offensive game has withered away in the space of a year, and physically can't play the field beyond a game or two at a time.

PRO: A Hafner who can't hit obviously won't be worth the $57M contract he signed last season.

PRO: Has a limited no-trade clause in that extension, so it will be more difficult to deal him the longer he's not hitting.

CON: The offensive struggles could be a least in part related to a shoulder injury, so he could regain at least a portion of his prowess after his shoulder has recovered.

CON: Hafner made a commitment to stay in Cleveland instead of electing free agency; dealing him so soon after signing the extension wouldn't exactly send a good message to those on the team who are making decisions about free agency.

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Comments

I don’t really see the margin in flipping any of these guys. Dellucci, maybe, but what’s the point? Even if he’s just an occasional DH and lefty off the bench, Righteous D’s not really expensive, and the alternative is, no disrespect to Jason Cooper, Jason Cooper.

by fleerdon on Jun 7, 2008 8:23 PM EDT 0 recs

I’ve had this discussion before, but what if we’ve already seen Grady’s best season? What if he doesn’t turn into a superstar? He’s a great player. He’s currently 20th in the majors in VORP (but 26-year-old Nate McLouth is eighth).

It would be a ballsy move, with a lot of potential for disaster, but what if you unloaded him? I bet you could get a boatload.

by odradek on Jun 7, 2008 8:25 PM EDT 0 recs

But even if we were going to trade him - which we won’t and shouldn’t, for all the reasons Ryan mentioned - trading him now would be selling low.

Furthermore, it’s not ballsy, it’s just stupid.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 7, 2008 8:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

Shapiro would have to fortify his home and wear a disguise.

by odradek on Jun 7, 2008 11:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

funny that the perception is that sizemore is having a down year of some sort. the only stat of his that is noticeably down is his batting average-everywhere else, he’s improving in very tangible ways. he’s on pace to hit 30+ home runs and have 120 walks. he’s turned into an absolute monster on the basepaths, with 15 steals and only 2 CS, and this is reflected in his .311 EqA, the highest of his career to this point. he’s also a vacuum cleaner out in CF-scouts love his range and defense, and he’s second in the AL in RZR (although not all defensive metrics are so kind to him).

he’s been around for seemingly ever, but he’s only 25. the likelihood that we already saw his best season in 2006, when he was just 23, is just so very very tiny. fun trivia: i was actually at the game where sizemore made his big league debut. nice!

by Cap'n Snegiryov on Jun 7, 2008 11:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

This is great point, basically his idiot stats aren’t as pretty as we would like, but under it all he’s having a great season.

by hans on Jun 8, 2008 1:49 AM EDT up 0 recs

See…we spent a lot of time and effort into building this system so we could contend now. We went through some really bad years so we would have the talent/depth to contend now. I am not happy with having one good year and then blowing everything up so we can contend 3 years from now. And let’s be honest, if you are trading Grady then you are blowing up the plan because Grady is about the only thing going right so far this year. If you’re trading Grady then you might as well trade Jhonny, Victor, Garko, Sabathia, Westbrook, and Lee.

Things aren’t going too great right now, but if anything it isn’t the time to freak out and try to get what we can for our players. We will turn things around. Our hitting has started to get better. Our bullpen is questionable, but who expected it to be lights out like last year? Our starting pitching is better than every other contenders.

And before you throw the injury card I have this to say: Isn’t this exactly the situation this organization is built for? Quality depth that can play at a league average or even above level. We are built to survive these injuries to our starting rotation better than any team out there. All we have to do is be patient and watch while the good fortune some clubs have turns on them. And watch while we climb to the top of our division.

by gahnki on Jun 8, 2008 2:51 AM EDT up 0 recs

I agree that it would be imprudent to blow up this team. But I was thinking about it in a Billy Beane manner. Is it worth preserving a team that can win 85 games? In the Indians’ case, I think the answer is yes.

The severe blow to the Indians’ chances is the loss of Westbrook. Before his injury I would agree with you that the Tribe’s climb to the top was imminent. Now, I’m not so sure.

Good fortune doesn’t inevitably turn on other clubs. The Twins and White Sox are evidence of that.

by odradek on Jun 8, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

The Twins and White Sox of yesteryear were much, much better than this years version. Those teams have gotten lucky and remained relatively healthy. That will change as the year goes on. We will be fine.

by gahnki on Jun 8, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Rationally, I know there’s a good chance you are right. But right now I cannot remember a series this year, 63 games into the season (with 275RS/270RA), where the Indians have looked dominant. Perhaps the opening series against the White Sox? I don’t expect rah-rah head-banging affect from baseball players, but this team at present plays to lose. The ramifications of Westbrook’s injury will be profound—as we saw today, as good as Sowers is and can be, he is nowhere near as solid as Jake. The bullpen will stabilize somewhat, some sort of equilibrium will be established. The offense should rebound as well, but we’ve experienced a classic Cleveland clusterfuck that appears too deep to dig out of. If we write off 2008, where is it written that 2009 will be our year? We’ll be down two starting pitchers—three if we don’t sign Byrd—with any significant reinforcements in the minors at least two seasons away.

I’m trying to look for positive signs. The starting rotation was obviously amazing the first third of the season. With Jake gone (and Carmona not a sure thing upon his return) we will see continuing regression from the rotation. The bats and the pen should improve. The Twins I don’t worry about so much, but I think the White Sox can play well over their heads for a while yet. They’re about to go 20-8 in the Central. The Indians are 10-15, better than only the Tigers (7-18).

The Indians are eight games out. Win tomorrow and maybe there’s reasonable hope.

by odradek on Jun 8, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

I hate the White Sox. I can see them playing .500 the rest of the way. I expect some of their young pitchers to start regress toward what was initially expected of them, particularly their second/third go around against teams. Swisher is going to start hitting soon, but I think Konerko is their Pronk, he’s not coming back this year. Quentin is for real, but probably not this good the whole season. Its up for grabs still.

by hans on Jun 8, 2008 9:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

I’ll see your hatred of the White Sox and raise you ten.

Young pitchers, okay. But what about Jose Contreras, for christ’s sake?

Joe Crede=George Brett?

The White Sox seem to thrive on pixie dust. Alexei Ramirez better than Franklin Gutierrez? Scott Linebrink better than Rafael Betancourt (or anyone else in the Cleveland bullpen)?

by odradek on Jun 9, 2008 1:15 AM EDT up 0 recs

I see their bullpen as the crutch that gets them through hard times (bats struggling, starting pitchers blowing up). Much in the same way our 07 success was largely due to our superior middle relief corp, the White Sox can be successful in the same way.

That being said, Dotel is a key guy on that team and is prone to injury and McDougal and Thorton are both pitching way over their heads.

by Toxicadam on Jun 9, 2008 10:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

Well it can’t just be the bullpen alone. Starting pitching players a larger role in a team’s performance than bullpen. Without the starting pitching we received last season we don’t make the playoffs no matter how good our bullpen was. If their starting pitching starts to revert back to what was originally expected of the bunch, than I think you’ll see them slip (not that playing .500 ball the rest of the way means they’ll slip out of first place mind you, its going to take either us or Detroit to get on track to catch them).

by hans on Jun 9, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

I think the comment about Gutz having more value as a CF is salient, and makes him attractive trade bait. He could be one of the best CF’ers in the game. If and when we trade for an outfield bat (that is, someone who hits better than Guti), it would make sense to include him in the package. Of course, trading our excess pitching is kinda moot right now, since we don’t have any.

But if Carmona does come off the DL in good shape, and it the club does entertain offers for CC later n the summer, packaging FG with CC might make sense if a power OF’er is what we get in return.

by mcrose on Jun 7, 2008 8:55 PM EDT 0 recs

I’ve given this more thought than it’s probably worth over the last couple of weeks, publicly and privately, even as Frank’s bat has shown signs of life. Here’s what I’ve learned.

1. Without Frank, we have minimal insurance for Sizemore. Francisco and Choo have spent some time in center, but neither should be there on more than an emergency basis. Our next best defensive outfielder after Frank and Grady is probably Brad Snyder, who is left-handed and, though still intriguing, not a regular MLB talent in 2008.
2. Keeping Frank is not challenging. He’s our only real 3-position outfielder, and a plus defender in all 3 positions. There’s always room for that guy.
3. Upside, upside, upside: He’s still quite young, and the Indians have completely overhauled his offensive approach. I think “solid platoon player” is a conservative 5-year estimate, and “genuinely good, legitimate corner outfielder” is still on the map. Dude’s got pop.
4. Cost. He’s SO cheap.

by fleerdon on Jun 8, 2008 12:11 AM EDT up 0 recs

I’m not sure the difference between Snyder and Gut is so large that we should hesitate to trade Gut if the right deal came along. PECOTA seems to think Snyder could provide league average offense this year. While I think that may be a tad optimistic, I see no basis for thinking that Snyder isn’t at least replacement level.

by ClarkM on Jun 8, 2008 2:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

I agree with this, Its not as if Gutz has seperated himself that much from the rest of our AAA OF depth options.

by hans on Jun 8, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

You won’t find many bigger Brad Snyder fans around here than me - it’s all about the SLG - but at 26 he’s yet to have the season in AAA that Franklin Gutierrez had at 23. And that’s not even taking into account handedness. I’m not calling Frank untouchable by any means, but I dispute what I perceive to be the notion that he’s somebody we should be looking to flip a la Coco. We can still wring an awful lot of value out of him.

by fleerdon on Jun 9, 2008 12:19 AM EDT up 0 recs

I like FG – I’d trade him only as part of a package for someone that takes his spot in the outfield and has that SLG.

by mcrose on Jun 9, 2008 10:19 AM EDT up 0 recs

Snyder is not as good as Frank, I agree, but I am not sure that’s dispositive. I’m not saying that Snyder should replace him as the starting right fielder, I’m saying that I’m comfortable with him being the long term back-up center fielder, whether it be on the 25 or 40 is probably not a big deal. The difference between the two is minimized by the low probability of their services being needed.

I like the idea of trading Frank, because as Ryan mentioned, he’s more valuable to other teams, than he is to us. If we can get a package that reflects that, then I think we should probably do that. To be sure, we may not be able to get that value in a trade, as we would be trading Frank before he realized his full potential, unlike the Crisp situation.

by ClarkM on Jun 9, 2008 7:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

I know that you include Hafner for completeness but Hafner doesn’t need a no-trade clause in his contract. There’s no way in hell any non-Bavasi GM would trade a bag of infield practice balls for Hafner as long as his $57M contract came with him – no way.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Jun 8, 2008 8:48 AM EDT 0 recs

And we wouldn’t get anything worthwhile even if a team did.

We just need to hold on to him and hope he turns things around.

by gahnki on Jun 8, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree, but I don’t think we have any choice but to do this. Basically, we have no choice but to hold on to him and hope he turns things around.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jun 8, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

I assume you mean this year; I don’t think he is a lock to complete the remaining 4+ years on his contract with the Indians.

by palcal on Jun 8, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

He could complete his contract playing for the Tecolotes de Nuevo Laredo. Or the Fargo-Morehead Red Hawks.

by odradek on Jun 8, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hopefully his “bat speed” will improve after his stint on the DL, in much the same way that Borowski’s “arm strength” returned after being on the DL.

I’m not saying that’s it, but.. you know… I’m just sayin’.

MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)

by The Cactus Leaguer on Jun 9, 2008 12:32 AM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, it’s all been a scam. That includes the ice pack he’s had wrapped around his shoulder after every game. They cover all the bases, man…

by TribeJay on Jun 9, 2008 8:12 AM EDT up 0 recs

Guitierrez’s future is the most interesting. A guy who flashes signs of being a gold glove, league average-type of OF’er … but also a guy who can put together long stretches of horrible AB’s. He’s like a better fielding, distant cousin of Jhonny Peralta.

After watching Choo, Francisco and Dellucci all mangle plays out in the field, I would hate to give up what Franklin brings to the table.

by Toxicadam on Jun 9, 2008 10:22 AM EDT 0 recs

I’d say he’s the much much much better fielding distant cousin of Peralta

by hans on Jun 9, 2008 11:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

I can’t see the Indians trading Choo or Gutierrez at this point. Other teams that would make a deadline trade want someone to help them get over the top; I don’t see either of those guys as falling into that category. Losing teams want prospects, but offer veteran help in return - we don’t need a solid guy with no up side if we’re serious about contending next year. Francisco might be attractive, since he has been more effective offensively, but he’s also more of a prospect. Trading Sizemore makes no sense - he’s locked up, affordable and good. Hafner isn’t trade-able. If he starts to hit, then maybe, but then why would you trade him? Dellucci is the only one on the list I can see being traded (to a contender for a marginal prospect or two).

by peter m on Jun 9, 2008 12:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Gut was rated +51 runs above replacement in the latest UZR as a RF. That’s f-ing AMAZING.

by gte619n on Jun 9, 2008 1:30 PM EDT 0 recs

Wow

by gahnki on Jun 9, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

He’s the best outfielder in baseball according to The Hardball Times’ RZR with .957.

On a related note, Grady Sizemore is the second-best outfielder at .939

David Dellucci comes in at .846.

by Ryan on Jun 9, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Dellucci… wow… that is BRUTAL.

by gte619n on Jun 10, 2008 9:46 AM EDT up 0 recs

He’s actually not the worst AL left fielder (Ibanez, Ramirez, and Quentin are worse). And Ben Francisco hasn’t been a whole lot better (.857- SSS applies). But with Hafner out, Dellucci should be the DH against right-handers, if only to take his awful arm out of play.

by Ryan on Jun 10, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up 0 recs

i tell you what, francisco looks absolutely lost out there on line drives in his general vicinity.

by Brick. on Jun 10, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up 0 recs

And pop ups. I think those numbers are going to go down even further the more he plays.

by gahnki on Jun 10, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up 0 recs

He’s been a professional outfielder since 2002. Really, it is unbelievable.

by ken from alexandria on Jun 10, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Is there any reason ever to play Dellucci in the field at this point?

I think he and Garko should platoon at DH, with Blake or Victor playing 1B against lefties. Between Choo, Francisco and Gutierrez, I just can’t see why would should put Dellucci in the field, or even Blake at this point.

by Jay on Jun 10, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up 1 recs

Really, in general, aren’t there just a multitude of ways in which Wedge’s deployment of his roster this year have been abominable? It’s to the extent that I don’t believe that he has any sort of plan at all. He’s scuffling worse than the hitters.

by NickFantana on Jun 10, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don’t entirely agree. I think he’s done a number of good things, and when the whole lineup is scuffling, I don’t see anything wrong with doing a lot of mixing things up. I know some guys get all fired up about the number of different lineups, but unless he’s screwing up something that was actually working, who cares?

by Jay on Jun 10, 2008 3:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don’t mean lineups, I agree that those are mostly meaningless. I mean deployment. As in, Garko should be platooning with a lefty, Dellucci shouldn’t be playing the outfield, Blake’s usage (of course), Peralta’s several enforced mini-vacations, ignoring young bullpen guys, of course there’s that complete debacle you wrote about a month ago or so with the L/R matchup and Dellucci and Peralta where Wedge may have been sleeping. I also seem to recall him getting outmaneuvered by Ron Washington once or twice.

I feel like he hasn’t snapped out of playoff manager mode and he’s managing like his players from last year’s ALCS are static assets that don’t need their usage patterns modified in accordance with their performance.

by NickFantana on Jun 10, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Wedge does seem to be still managing the 2007 campaign. He obviously prefers habituation, but he never has been a Earl Weaver-Jim Leyland manager tapping his feet nervously and smoking Viceroys in the dugout. When he makes decisions, they are often by the book. He doesn’t make many gut or intuitive moves. But isn’t it better to undermanage than overmanage?

by odradek on Jun 10, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up 0 recs