Pluto says Jonathan Lucroy may be PTBNL

Second to last paragraph. Sorry if this has already been confirmed elsewhere.

4 months ago kwoog Comment 41 comments 0 recs |

Comments

That’s great to hear. I was hoping he was one of the guys we could choose from. BA calls him an offensive-minded catcher with good plate discipline, gap power which could grow into some homerun power, average throwing arm at best (but threw out over 40% of basestealers last year, and 38% this year), decent game calling, great leadership skills. Sounds pretty good to me, especially if it’s between Lucroy and Green.

btw … here are Lucroy’s pro ball stats so far (554 AB’s, so basically 1 full season):

.325/.386/.504/.890

by JP_Frost on Jul 13, 2008 3:21 PM EDT 0 recs

I’ll be in Florida July 25-August 1. I’m planning on catching a Brevard County game to see him in action.

I did a Google image search for "Andy Marte." It turned up zero results.

by emd2k3 on Jul 14, 2008 9:39 AM EDT up 0 recs

If he’s still there, that is.

I did a Google image search for "Andy Marte." It turned up zero results.

by emd2k3 on Jul 14, 2008 9:40 AM EDT up 0 recs

Wow, look at this little line:

The Indians love the OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) because it measures the ability to reach base and a batter’s power.

and:

The Indians and some other teams use a statistics called “Isolated Power.” It measures a player’s ability to hit for extra bases. You take a players’ batting average and subtract it from his slugging percentage. The average American Leaguer has a .136 isolated power number.

nice job Pluto.

Oh and I also like this:

Brantley’s agent told The PD’s Paul Hoynes that his client is not on the list, but as one GM told me, “That’s not information that you’d share with an agent.”

Seemed a bit of a reach that an agent would be in possession of the knowledge whether or not a player is considered on a PTBNL list.

This is a pretty good article considering what is normally written in the paper. And I too hope Lucroy is the potential PTBNL, I’d be happy with any of the three that have been rumored, but I’d rank Lucroy, followed by Brantley, then Green.

by hans on Jul 13, 2008 5:12 PM EDT 0 recs

Yeah, Pluto really goes crazy with OPS, OBP and ISO today.

by Jay on Jul 13, 2008 5:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

I was really glad to see that—Pluto has mentioned OBP and OPS before but this is the first time that he really breaks it down for the readers and explains why the Indians like those stats (that I can remember).

Must be shocking to those folks used to reading Hoynes, Shaw, and Livingston.

by Buckeye Brad on Jul 13, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

Actually, given the timing, with the Indians’ season in the toilet, I’m sure a lot of folks were just rolling their eyes at the numbers being used by such a terrible front office. And those are the ones whose eyes didn’t glaze over immediately.

by Jay on Jul 13, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

The value of those stats obviously declined precipitously over the past 12 months. The only stat that matters now is WTAFT, What The Average Fan Thinks.

by FredOx on Jul 14, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Brantley’s agent is obviously an idiot. That’s all I really take from him telling Pluto that Brantley is not on the list. He wouldn’t know if he was. Grrr. Isn’t he also Green’s agent?

Oh, and good job Terry Pluto.

by DaytonDogg on Jul 13, 2008 8:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

I like it. Pretty impressive offensive numbers for just 2 yrs of college ball, in his second year of pro ball, and what I really like is the numbers getting better as he moves up. But what happened that he did not play in 2006?

by plato on Jul 13, 2008 6:19 PM EDT 0 recs

my mistake, guess he did play in 2006, second of three good years at U of La/Lafayette.

by plato on Jul 13, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

U of La/Lafayette—known by alumni and supporters as “Ooh La La.”

"A good body with a dull brain is as cheap as life itself."

by Fiddlesticks on Jul 13, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

I’m going to send Pluto an email of encouragement for using all those fancy, schmancy numbers.

by Toxicadam on Jul 14, 2008 7:27 AM EDT 0 recs

Tell him is VORP is skyrocketing.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 14, 2008 10:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

VORJ?

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Jul 14, 2008 10:12 AM EDT up 0 recs

VORC

by Gradyforpresident on Jul 14, 2008 10:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

As I suspected, something like this comes up when you do a Google Image search for VORC:

by APV on Jul 14, 2008 10:59 AM EDT up 0 recs

The front page of image results for VORP includes Rich Rollins, Moises Alou and … Matt Lawton.

by FredOx on Jul 14, 2008 12:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

You can’t have VORP without the RP.

"A good body with a dull brain is as cheap as life itself."

by Fiddlesticks on Jul 14, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

replacement Clevelander?

by odradek on Jul 14, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Columnist?

by afh4 on Jul 14, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

yeah

by Gradyforpresident on Jul 14, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

Bob Livingston’s VORC: -27

by odradek on Jul 14, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

is this guy the type of guy that could be part of the big league picture sooner than green or brantley?

by Brick. on Jul 14, 2008 5:30 PM EDT 0 recs

Not if he stays at catcher.

by afh4 on Jul 14, 2008 6:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Brantley is the only one of the three above A ball so I don’t think its anything other than a promising prospect for the future with is more likely in 3-4 years at the earliest for any of the three. Although Brantley could make the jump to AAA for next season and potentially be a sept. call up in 09 although he’s the youngest+furthest along of the three, so there is a lot to like about him.

by hans on Jul 14, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Shapiro got the best guy he could and that the scouts have done their homework. I still know very little about the Brewers’ system other than what a quick-and-dirty stats filter can tell me. That said, if Lucroy can stay a catcher then it’s hard not to favor him.

It’s hard to find stuff on these “photo not available” guys.

What do you think, battlekow? Which PTBNL-once named-would upset you the most?

by jhon on Jul 14, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah I agree that Lucroy being a catcher and being able to hit boosts his value. In regards to his defense, I don’t know much other than he threw out 38% of attempted base stealers, which isn’t spectacular, but is far from terrible as well. He’s still catching for regularly, and his appearances in the DH role are probably more of chance to keep his bat in the lineup while giving him the typical days off that catchers receive. Like you this is all without seeing him play with my own eyes or reading any scouting reports, but I find nothing in the numbers that indicate that he isn’t holding his own defensively, and is above avg. offensively at position where there is a dearth of offensive catchers at the ML level. He’s my personal favorite choice of the three, but any of the three will satisfy.

by hans on Jul 14, 2008 7:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

that 38% was in the SAL league earlier this year (22 out of 58)

by hans on Jul 14, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, I think that 38% is pretty decent. I just mean this anecdotally, but shouldn’t his CS rate improve or stay about the same as he moves up levels? It’s not like the guys get any faster from level to level, or that MLB basestealers are that much more threatening than low-A runners. If anything, he’ll encounter pitchers who are better at holding runners on and infielders who are better at fielding his throws.

I see it as kind of a pass / fail thing, and if he can get 38% I’ll assume he passes. This one readily measurable aspect of the position, at least.

by jhon on Jul 14, 2008 7:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

My guess is that major leaguers are slower than minor leaguers. Plus speed will get you a certain distance as a pro ballplayer and is less rare than pure hitting ability — thus you’ll see a higher concentration of very fast runners the lower you go in the minors. Also, raw speed generally peaks for men at age 24, and minor leaguers tend to be closer to 24 than major leaguers.

by Jay on Jul 14, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

I trust it totally but just out of curiosity, how do you know speed peaks at 24? I’m guessing that’s the average age of olympic sprinters and all that?

by afh4 on Jul 14, 2008 7:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

I’ll dig it up. I don’t remember the sources right off the top of my head.

by Jay on Jul 15, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up 0 recs

Here’s one reference suggesting that SB rates peak at age 24. That conclusion was based on 1919-99 data.

by FredOx on Jul 15, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up 0 recs

that’s what I briefly looked for last night…then failed to find.

by APV on Jul 15, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

I like LuCroy and Brantley more than Green, I think. LuCroy is appealing because high ceiling hitters are inherently valuable; if Brantley’s defense is actually bad and power never shows up, we’ve got a problem.

Then again, I like all three of these guys, or at least LuCroy and Brantley, more than Angel Salome who was “untouchable.” So what do I know.

by afh4 on Jul 14, 2008 7:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

I can honestly say I’d be pretty happy about any of them — assuming that we don’t end up with Green if he’s not a legit 2B. As a a 2B, Green is a pretty tasty prospect to acquire.

by Jay on Jul 14, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, they’re all guys I want in the system.

by afh4 on Jul 14, 2008 7:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

it’s not july 31st yet.

by Brick. on Jul 14, 2008 8:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

For another perspective, compare Josh Rodriguez’s numbers to Green’s:

 Year  Age Tm  Lg  Lvl Aff   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO
+----+----+---+---+---+---+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+
 2008   21 BRE FSL A+  MIL   89   333   34   95  15   0  10   56   44   48 
 2008   23 AKR EAS AA  CLE   94   368   60   98  15   7   6   41   57   87 

 Year  Age Tm  Lg  Lvl Aff     BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   SB   CS  SB%  SH  SF IBB HBP GDP
+----+----+---+---+---+---+-------+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+
 2008   21 BRE FSL A+  MIL   .285  .369  .420  .789    3   2  60%   3   3   3   2   6 
 2008   23 AKR EAS AA  CLE   .266  .363  .394  .757   10   5  67%   4   2   1   0   5 

 Year  Age Tm  Lg  Lvl Aff   PA   Out  RC   RC/G | OPS  lgOPS tmOPS
+----+----+---+---+---+---+-----+----+----+------+-----+-----+-----+
 2008   21 BRE FSL A+  MIL   385  252   54   5.68| .789  .699  .669 
 2008   23 AKR EAS AA  CLE   431  286   56   5.19| .757  .743  .785

So here are the key differences I see.

1. Green is 21, Josh is 23. Big plus for Green.
2. Rodriguez is a level higher — but that’s not impressive given his age.
3. Rodriguez is a solid SS moving to 2B, Green is a 3B moving (back to) 2B. Significant plus for Rodriguez.
4. Green has a very good walk rate, Rodriguez’s is excellent.
5. Rodriguez would seem to be a lot faster, based on 3B + SB — 17 to 3.
6. Rodriguez is hitting a little better, but Green appears to be in a tougher league and/or park. ISO is very close.

On balance, I see them as very similar prospects, but I might give the edge to Green based on his youth. That is, Rodriguez isn’t knocking anyone’s socks off — he’s a solid guy at 23, but by the time Green is 23, he might well be killing the ball in Double-A, not just hitting “okay” and collecting a few extra TB with his footspeed.

by Jay on Jul 15, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Lucroy is the most ML-ready overall of the three

He has no real holes in his game, whereas the other two have gaping questions about their viability as real baseball players. He just needs experience.

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Jul 16, 2008 3:13 AM EDT up 0 recs