Midseason Stats of the Hitting Prospects that Matter
Here are the first fruits of DiamondView Lite's labors. They are the midseason lines for the hitters on Jay's Prospects that Matter list (plus a few of others). If in the future you want me add more names, make your case. Drennen and Rivero appear to be the biggest disappointments. Weglarz!, though. I chose to use LaPorta's Akron line going forward and anyway we're probably all familiar with the Huntsville line (I have a framed copy of it). I also omitted the PtMs who are playing for Cleveland now.
Age Tm Lv G AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
23 AKR AA 4 16 2 6 0 0 1 4 0 4 .375 .375 .563 .938 Matt LaPorta
22 BUF AAA 34 141 25 46 7 1 4 13 7 25 .326 .375 .475 .850 Asdrubal Cabrera
20 KIN A+ 87 305 57 84 17 3 10 35 60 64 .275 .400 .449 .849 Nicholas Weglarz
21 KIN A+ 78 314 53 76 17 1 0 23 28 44 .242 .316 .303 .619 John Drennen
20 KIN A+ 64 240 25 61 15 0 3 32 19 58 .254 .312 .354 .666 Carlos Rivero
24 BUF AAA 74 288 33 77 20 2 4 27 20 45 .267 .317 .392 .709 Jordan Brown
21 KIN A+ 88 338 56 94 27 2 15 60 41 70 .278 .362 .503 .865 Beau Mills
23 AKR AA 93 363 59 96 15 7 6 40 57 86 .264 .363 .394 .757 Joshua Rodriguez
23 AKR AA 91 340 52 107 18 3 10 72 42 71 .315 .389 .474 .863 Wes Hodges
By the way, I've sent an email to Baseball Reference telling them what I've done and whether I'm using their website fairly. I wouldn't think posting these few lines would cause any problems, but I thought I'd let them know.
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It would be nice to see LaPorta’s cumulative numbers.
I don’t see Rivero’s numbers as disappointing, given that he’s a 20-year-old slick-fielding shortstop.
by Jay on Jul 14, 2008 1:05 PM EDT 0 recs
Is he a good fielder though? The only scouting report I can recall reading on him said he was sort of deceptively quick for his size and might outgrow SS.
I have very high hopes for Rivero, so I’m trying not to be disappointed in the lack of power. Kinston seems like a pretty severe pitchers park though; I wonder how he’d be doing at Lake County.
by mrich on
Jul 14, 2008 1:13 PM EDT
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I do think they are a little disappointing, if only because the trend is in the wrong direction of decreasing BB% (9.6>7.1) and increasing K% (17.1>22.7), while not adding anything in the way of power (ISO .108>.098).
by APV on
Jul 14, 2008 1:19 PM EDT
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To add to this, the missed playing time is also not a great sign. I’m not sure what was wrong with him, but its not encouraging whatever it was.
by ClarkM on
Jul 14, 2008 8:45 PM EDT
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Here’s his isolated power and walk rate, month-by-month:
April: .083, 3.3%
May: .095, 6.9%
June: .121, 10.3%
July: .125, 13.2%
Feel any better? I’m not worried about the apparent power regression simply because he’s so young — he actually was 19 when the season started, he didn’t even turn 20 until May 20. So I’m sure they’re still taking him through major changes in his approach, and at barely-20, his development may simply have been at a slower pace than the difference between the levels. That’s not likely to be the case for the next couple of years, though.
by Jay on
Jul 14, 2008 10:58 PM EDT
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G AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
88 318 58 93 23 2 21 70 45 67 .292 .401 .575 .976
by FredOx on Jul 14, 2008 1:22 PM EDT 0 recs
That’s a good looking line.
John Drennen doesn’t matter anymore. It happens.
by jhon on
Jul 14, 2008 1:26 PM EDT
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Yeah, I meant that as a reply to Jay – LaPorta’s cumulative stats.
by FredOx on
Jul 14, 2008 1:33 PM EDT
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Here’s LaPorta’s career path so far (take 2007 with a big grain of SSS salt):
Helena .259/.286/.519/.804
WVA .318/.392/.750/1.142
AA .292/.401/.575/.976
by FredOx on Jul 14, 2008 1:41 PM EDT 0 recs
Not to be a jerk, but it’s hard to imagine how you could have made that more confusing.
If you’re worried about presenting small or uneven sample sizes, why not just indicate how many PA on each line?
by Jay on
Jul 14, 2008 1:48 PM EDT
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Sorry, sometimes I wish the world had an undo button (and it’s 28 PAs at Helena, 102 at West Virginia and 382 in AA).
by FredOx on
Jul 14, 2008 2:18 PM EDT
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Why was Drennen supposed to matter in the first place? Aside from his high draft pick? I have only been following this since last summer, so I’m not aware of what he was supposed “to be”.
by Toxicadam on Jul 14, 2008 1:59 PM EDT 0 recs
Didn’t he have a gambling issue? Or am I thinking of someone else?
You have no idea the physical toll that three vasectomies have on a person
by jakesinger777 on
Jul 14, 2008 3:11 PM EDT
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No idea what you’re thinking of.
Drennen was on the list because he had all-around great numbers at age 19, it’s that simple.
He is about to be booted off the list, which by design should be a rare occurrence.
by Jay on
Jul 14, 2008 3:59 PM EDT
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you’re probably thinking of radio/tv blowhard Bruce Drennan
by mpstable on
Jul 14, 2008 4:29 PM EDT
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Bruce Drennan, the sportscaster, was convicted on a gambling charge.
by elsandito on
Jul 16, 2008 5:45 PM EDT
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For some reason, this picture has never inspired confidence, but I can’t explain why:

by FredOx on Jul 14, 2008 3:33 PM EDT 0 recs
Was he playing is some Russian league?
"A good body with a dull brain is as cheap as life itself."
by Fiddlesticks on
Jul 14, 2008 4:06 PM EDT
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Interesting. I guess I didn’t have high expectations for him. We knew he had a limited power ceiling, and we knew he had a bum knee. The season outcome he’s having isn’t too many degrees below the median as I would have projected it.
by Jay on
Jul 14, 2008 7:32 PM EDT
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He isn’t too far below what we expected, but I saw him as a guy that was pretty likely to hit that median expectation, and he hasn’t. That is what is disappointing for me. I had no illusions that he could replicate his AA numbers at the big leagues, or even AAA, but I thought he was a safe bet to become a league average hitter, and now that looks like a much less safe bet.
by ClarkM on
Jul 14, 2008 8:43 PM EDT
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I don’t know. Is the problem with his hitting due to his knee? or is simply a collapse of his skills as a healthy player vs. improved pitching at the AAA level? If its due to injury than you have a simple solution, heal. I mean Victor Martinez put up pretty pathetic numbers this season that are almost completely due to playing through an injury and adjusting his swing because of it, we’re not saying that Vic’s hitting ability has diminished (well some of the dumb national media types are) but rather that it was due to injury. Unless the injury to Brown’s knee is a chronic concern I don’t think you read too much into his poor showing other than its due to injury.
by hans on
Jul 14, 2008 10:09 PM EDT
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Increasingly I feel that mediocrity is never a safe bet. See also: Garko, Sowers.
by Jay on
Jul 14, 2008 10:51 PM EDT
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Kind of like an escape velocity of talent? Either you’ve got enough to break loose of AAA, or you keep getting pulled back down into the minors.
by fleerdon on
Jul 15, 2008 9:53 AM EDT
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That’s a cool way of looking at it. But sometimes even then it’s not enough to get you out of orbit. Look at Jay Bruce.
by odradek on
Jul 15, 2008 7:21 PM EDT
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So whatever happened to Beau Mills being healthy enough to play 3b? I haven’t been following too closely so I’m curious if there is a reason for him playing 1b nearly exclusively.
by Joe. on Jul 16, 2008 12:02 PM EDT 0 recs
I think he’s just not very good defensively. Lastoria has a piece up in which Kinston coaches rave about how he’s made strides at 1B, so much so that he may eventually be average there. Faint praise. Who knows, tho. If he ’s decent anywhere defensively, that’s ok with me.
His bat looks to play, which is the main thing. He’s now leading the league in total bases. Third in doubles, tied for second in home runs.
by mcrose on
Jul 16, 2008 1:06 PM EDT
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Yep. All accounts I’ve read so far actually give him pretty good marks out there except for his footspeed. Apparently he made a great game saving catch crashing into the wall a couple games ago.
by mcrose on
Jul 16, 2008 3:53 PM EDT
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I read that, though I interpreted it differently. Seemed to me the coaches meant that he was learning the specific position well. If I remember correctly, the scouting report was that Mills’s footwork and hands were okay at third; he just had a bum shoulder and some awkward throwing mechanics.
by fleerdon on
Jul 17, 2008 3:38 PM EDT
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That may be true. But somehow I think the odds are that the only two positions Mills will be able to play in the major leagues are 1B and DH.
Speaking of 3B, though, there’s one other prospect that will be on this list next year and that’s Abner Abreu, 18 yr old for the GCL Tribe. He’s another guy who has a high ceiling as an offensive player. Currently leading his league (and a pretty big league it is) in total bases with a very good ISO.
by mcrose on
Jul 17, 2008 6:04 PM EDT
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