Midseason Stats of the Hitting Prospects that Matter

by FranklinScott on Jul 14, 2008 11:40 AM EDT Comment 36 comments

Here are the first fruits of DiamondView Lite's labors. They are the midseason lines for the hitters on Jay's Prospects that Matter list (plus a few of others). If in the future you want me add more names, make your case. Drennen and Rivero appear to be the biggest disappointments. Weglarz!, though. I chose to use LaPorta's Akron line going forward and anyway we're probably all familiar with the Huntsville line (I have a framed copy of it). I also omitted the PtMs who are playing for Cleveland now.

Age Tm Lv G AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS

   23   AKR    AA        4     16        2        6     0     0     1        4        0        4        .375     .375     .563     .938         Matt LaPorta
   22   BUF    AAA    34     141     25     46     7     1     4     13        7     25     .326     .375     .475     .850     Asdrubal Cabrera
   20   KIN    A+ 87     305     57     84     17     3     10     35     60     64     .275     .400     .449     .849     Nicholas Weglarz
   21   KIN    A+    78     314     53     76     17     1     0     23     28     44     .242     .316     .303     .619     John Drennen
   20   KIN    A+      64     240     25     61     15     0     3     32     19     58     .254     .312     .354     .666     Carlos Rivero
   24   BUF    AAA    74     288     33     77     20     2     4     27     20     45     .267     .317     .392     .709     Jordan Brown
   21   KIN    A+    88     338     56     94     27     2     15     60     41     70     .278     .362     .503     .865     Beau Mills
   23   AKR    AA      93     363     59     96     15     7     6     40     57     86     .264     .363     .394     .757     Joshua Rodriguez
   23   AKR    AA      91     340     52     107     18     3     10     72     42     71     .315     .389     .474     .863     Wes Hodges

By the way, I've sent an email to Baseball Reference telling them what I've done and whether I'm using their website fairly. I wouldn't think posting these few lines would cause any problems, but I thought I'd let them know.

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Comments

It would be nice to see LaPorta’s cumulative numbers.

I don’t see Rivero’s numbers as disappointing, given that he’s a 20-year-old slick-fielding shortstop.

by Jay on Jul 14, 2008 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Is he a good fielder though? The only scouting report I can recall reading on him said he was sort of deceptively quick for his size and might outgrow SS.

I have very high hopes for Rivero, so I’m trying not to be disappointed in the lack of power. Kinston seems like a pretty severe pitchers park though; I wonder how he’d be doing at Lake County.

by mrich on Jul 14, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do think they are a little disappointing, if only because the trend is in the wrong direction of decreasing BB% (9.6>7.1) and increasing K% (17.1>22.7), while not adding anything in the way of power (ISO .108>.098).

by APV on Jul 14, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To add to this, the missed playing time is also not a great sign. I’m not sure what was wrong with him, but its not encouraging whatever it was.

by ClarkM on Jul 14, 2008 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here’s his isolated power and walk rate, month-by-month:

April: .083, 3.3%
May: .095, 6.9%
June: .121, 10.3%
July: .125, 13.2%

Feel any better? I’m not worried about the apparent power regression simply because he’s so young — he actually was 19 when the season started, he didn’t even turn 20 until May 20. So I’m sure they’re still taking him through major changes in his approach, and at barely-20, his development may simply have been at a slower pace than the difference between the levels. That’s not likely to be the case for the next couple of years, though.

by Jay on Jul 14, 2008 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that does make me feel better.

by APV on Jul 14, 2008 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

G AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
88 318 58 93 23 2 21 70 45 67 .292 .401 .575 .976

by FredOx on Jul 14, 2008 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That’s a good looking line.

John Drennen doesn’t matter anymore. It happens.

by jhon on Jul 14, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What is Laporta’s cumulative season line….am I right?

by APV on Jul 14, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I meant that as a reply to Jay – LaPorta’s cumulative stats.

by FredOx on Jul 14, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here’s LaPorta’s career path so far (take 2007 with a big grain of SSS salt):

Helena .259/.286/.519/.804
WVA .318/.392/.750/1.142
AA .292/.401/.575/.976

by FredOx on Jul 14, 2008 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not to be a jerk, but it’s hard to imagine how you could have made that more confusing.

If you’re worried about presenting small or uneven sample sizes, why not just indicate how many PA on each line?

by Jay on Jul 14, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, sometimes I wish the world had an undo button (and it’s 28 PAs at Helena, 102 at West Virginia and 382 in AA).

by FredOx on Jul 14, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why was Drennen supposed to matter in the first place? Aside from his high draft pick? I have only been following this since last summer, so I’m not aware of what he was supposed “to be”.

by Toxicadam on Jul 14, 2008 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

dude took Clemens deep on national TV.

by ASP on Jul 14, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Didn’t he have a gambling issue? Or am I thinking of someone else?

You have no idea the physical toll that three vasectomies have on a person

by jakesinger777 on Jul 14, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No idea what you’re thinking of.

Drennen was on the list because he had all-around great numbers at age 19, it’s that simple.

He is about to be booted off the list, which by design should be a rare occurrence.

by Jay on Jul 14, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you’re probably thinking of radio/tv blowhard Bruce Drennan

by mpstable on Jul 14, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bruce Drennan, the sportscaster, was convicted on a gambling charge.

by elsandito on Jul 16, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For some reason, this picture has never inspired confidence, but I can’t explain why:

by FredOx on Jul 14, 2008 3:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Was he playing is some Russian league?

"A good body with a dull brain is as cheap as life itself."

by Fiddlesticks on Jul 14, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rancho Bernardo HS in San Diego.

by FredOx on Jul 14, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The biggest dissappointment, for me, is Jordan Brown.

by ClarkM on Jul 14, 2008 7:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting. I guess I didn’t have high expectations for him. We knew he had a limited power ceiling, and we knew he had a bum knee. The season outcome he’s having isn’t too many degrees below the median as I would have projected it.

by Jay on Jul 14, 2008 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He isn’t too far below what we expected, but I saw him as a guy that was pretty likely to hit that median expectation, and he hasn’t. That is what is disappointing for me. I had no illusions that he could replicate his AA numbers at the big leagues, or even AAA, but I thought he was a safe bet to become a league average hitter, and now that looks like a much less safe bet.

by ClarkM on Jul 14, 2008 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t know. Is the problem with his hitting due to his knee? or is simply a collapse of his skills as a healthy player vs. improved pitching at the AAA level? If its due to injury than you have a simple solution, heal. I mean Victor Martinez put up pretty pathetic numbers this season that are almost completely due to playing through an injury and adjusting his swing because of it, we’re not saying that Vic’s hitting ability has diminished (well some of the dumb national media types are) but rather that it was due to injury. Unless the injury to Brown’s knee is a chronic concern I don’t think you read too much into his poor showing other than its due to injury.

by hans on Jul 14, 2008 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Increasingly I feel that mediocrity is never a safe bet. See also: Garko, Sowers.

by Jay on Jul 14, 2008 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Kind of like an escape velocity of talent? Either you’ve got enough to break loose of AAA, or you keep getting pulled back down into the minors.

by fleerdon on Jul 15, 2008 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

That’s a cool way of looking at it. But sometimes even then it’s not enough to get you out of orbit. Look at Jay Bruce.

by odradek on Jul 15, 2008 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So whatever happened to Beau Mills being healthy enough to play 3b? I haven’t been following too closely so I’m curious if there is a reason for him playing 1b nearly exclusively.

by Joe. on Jul 16, 2008 12:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think he’s just not very good defensively. Lastoria has a piece up in which Kinston coaches rave about how he’s made strides at 1B, so much so that he may eventually be average there. Faint praise. Who knows, tho. If he ’s decent anywhere defensively, that’s ok with me.

His bat looks to play, which is the main thing. He’s now leading the league in total bases. Third in doubles, tied for second in home runs.

by mcrose on Jul 16, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guess we better hope LaPorta sticks at LF, no?

by Joe. on Jul 16, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep. All accounts I’ve read so far actually give him pretty good marks out there except for his footspeed. Apparently he made a great game saving catch crashing into the wall a couple games ago.

by mcrose on Jul 16, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he’s a pretty decent athlete, just slow.

by fleerdon on Jul 17, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I read that, though I interpreted it differently. Seemed to me the coaches meant that he was learning the specific position well. If I remember correctly, the scouting report was that Mills’s footwork and hands were okay at third; he just had a bum shoulder and some awkward throwing mechanics.

by fleerdon on Jul 17, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That may be true. But somehow I think the odds are that the only two positions Mills will be able to play in the major leagues are 1B and DH.

Speaking of 3B, though, there’s one other prospect that will be on this list next year and that’s Abner Abreu, 18 yr old for the GCL Tribe. He’s another guy who has a high ceiling as an offensive player. Currently leading his league (and a pretty big league it is) in total bases with a very good ISO.

by mcrose on Jul 17, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs