Second-half prediction thread.
by Toxicadam
on Jul 16, 2008 11:28 PM EDT
A boring day of no baseball. Let's kick around some bold predictions for the team in the second half.
What current Indian will have a huge second half?
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark?
Who will be the biggest disappointment?
How many wins will we finish with?
Guess Andy Marte's season ending average & homeruns.
--
Tack on any other bold predictions you see fit.
Come September, we can revisit the thread and see who was remarkably prescient.
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What current Indian will have a huge second half? Jeremy Sowers
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? Stevens
Who will be the biggest disappointment? Gootz
How many wins will we finish with? 75
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. .234 & 6
by Toxicadam on Jul 17, 2008 12:11 AM EDT 0 recs
Forgot to add that Casey Blake and David Dellucci will end the season in a Tribe uniform.
by Toxicadam on
Jul 17, 2008 12:12 AM EDT
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Huge second half? Eddie Moo
Biggest mark from a minor leaguer? Stevens, sorry to copy.
Biggest dissapointment? Choo
Wins? 76
Marte? .240 and 10. Just enough to give us all that bit of hope we need.
Bonus? Blake is traded but resigns with Wedge in the offseason, Jeremy Sowers continues to be miserable, Martinez hits his first HR on August 21st against KC.
Proud supporter of the Cleveland.
by fwembt on Jul 17, 2008 12:29 AM EDT 0 recs
It would be great if Wedge and Blake resign together at a teary press conference in November. They can both go off to play for the Dutch national team in Rotterdam.
by odradek on
Jul 17, 2008 12:54 AM EDT
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It would be great if Wedge and Blake resign together at a teary press conference in November. They can both go off to play for the Dutch national team in Rotterdam.
by odradek on
Jul 17, 2008 12:51 AM EDT
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What current Indian will have a huge second half? Grady. Does that count? If not, Mastny.
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? The biggest mark in the majors? None. If anyone, Huff.
Who will be the biggest disappointment? Blake, when he is either not traded or gets little in return.
How many wins will we finish with? Isn’t i weird that we’re way past the half season mark, yet we’re at the break? What are there, 68 games left? Ehhh. 37-31. So, 78.
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. I can’t do this math in my head. I’m just going to do his average and HRs after the break:
.265, 13 HRs.
Bonus: Paul Byrd returns something of value. Grady gets to 42 homeruns.
by afh4 on Jul 17, 2008 1:00 AM EDT 0 recs
Current Indian to have a huge second half? Grady - will finish 3rd in MVP voting & Lee - lowers (yes lowers) his ERA slightly & finishes with 23 wins thus convincing everyone he’s the Cy Young.
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? LaPorta - but only because he gets called up with the roster expansion to 40, hits a few HR’s and makes everyone weak in the knees.
Who will be the biggest disappointment? Tie VMart - comes back only to go on the DL again and never hits a HR. Byrd when we can’t trade him for a sack of balls and he tanks.
How many wins will we finish with? Being optimistic, 79.
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. He performs better the longer he is the everyday starter. .255, 14 HRs.
Others – Carmona comes back strong and the time off this season actually helps in the long run. On the day he’s traded, Blake says he’s open to coming back next year because he loves this team and appreciates working under Wedgie. Everyone cringes. The Twinkies win the AL Central. Sowers is better, but not enough to make us believe he can be our 5th starter next year.
Still the local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer" and also has hopes for Gutz. Free Marte.
by mjmarble on Jul 17, 2008 3:52 AM EDT 0 recs
OK, then send for the guys with the white coats, cuz I’m goin’ 81. Peralta keeps it up, Garko OPSs .900 for the rest of the season, Caberra ‘08 looks like Caberra ‘07, Shoppach contiues to hit and Victor comes back and hits like it’s July of 07. Lee stays lights out and Carmona is Ice Cold Fausto once again. Sowers finds the strike zone, Betancourt says “the hell with it” and starts working the inside of the plate again. Eddie Moo and Perez continue to be effective and Masa flashes back to Osaka.
Nope, we’re gonna turn this sucker around and partee like it’s 1999!
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
by mauichuck on
Jul 17, 2008 3:27 PM EDT
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This could actually happen if nothing else goes wrong. What am I saying? Something always goes wrong.
by elsandito on
Jul 17, 2008 3:50 PM EDT
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The 1999 Indians were a 97-65 (.599) team. In order for the 2008 Indians to get to 81 wins we would have to go 41-27 (.603), a 98 win pace.
We’d have to party like 1999, +1. That’s a lot to ask.
But I would gladly drop in the draft if we could count on Garko for a .900 OPS from here on out.
by KevinV on
Jul 17, 2008 3:50 PM EDT
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Yeah, but they were only 39-29 over their last 68 games.
Plus, Garko barely has a .900 APOPS (Average + OPS). He hasn’t seen .900 since April.
by FredOx on
Jul 17, 2008 4:02 PM EDT
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Granted, it’s optimistic. But we get Carmona back, Marte plays better, the bullpen can’t continue to be as bad (knock on wood), and we play crappy teams like ourselves (although we have more upside). Optimism isn’t such a bad thing sometimes.
Still the local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer" and also has hopes for Gutz. Free Marte.
by mjmarble on
Jul 17, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
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Optimism is not bad at all. I think by the end of the year we could be a team that could realistically win at a .574 clip, but for now we have to wait to get pieces back and performing. In the mean time we will probably lose a lot of games and put win totals like 79 or 81 out of reach for 2008.
by KevinV on
Jul 17, 2008 6:01 PM EDT
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What current Indian will have a huge second half? Peralta
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? Cabrera
Who will be the biggest disappointment? Gutz
How many wins will we finish with? 74
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. .210 , 7 HRs
by elsandito on Jul 17, 2008 8:21 AM EDT 0 recs
What current Indian will have a huge second half? Raffy Perez. Grabs some saves, looks dominant again. Causes a big “Maybe we don’t need an outside closer” debate.
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? You’ve got me. Huff is the only one I see being good enough to make a big mark, but I really wouldn’t call him up too soon. It’s hard to make a huge impact after September.
Who will be the biggest disappointment? Peralta. I love him, but we know the other side of the rollercoaster is looming. I say biggest disappointment just because I want him to carry on this hot streak very badly. He won’t.
How many wins will we finish with? 76
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. Hmm. .247, and let’s say 7 home runs.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Jul 17, 2008 8:38 AM EDT 0 recs
Oh, and:
Paul Byrd is a Met.
Casey Blake ends the season with us. Dammit.
We sign someone next year making at least $12 mil annually.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on
Jul 17, 2008 8:40 AM EDT
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I’m just doing the Marte watch:
Finishes at .264 with 11 HRs. Yes I did this systemagically.
by gte619n on Jul 17, 2008 8:49 AM EDT 0 recs
That assumes he keeps up the pace he’s been maintaining since he started playing more frequently in July (.302 and one HR in 23 AB over six games since July 5). I’m not sure he can keep it up. .250 and 7 seems more likely.
by FredOx on
Jul 17, 2008 9:55 AM EDT
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What current Indian will have a huge second half? Sizemore
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? Cabrera
Who will be the biggest disappointment? Laffey
How many wins will we finish with? 78
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. .233 9
by APV on Jul 17, 2008 9:10 AM EDT 0 recs
What current Indian will have a huge second half? Peralta—but not with the Indians. It’ll be with the team we trade him to for a minor league 2B or OF with pop.
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? Droobs, as our new shortstop. Also! Wegz, who will lead Team Canada to the Olympic Gold.
Who will be the biggest disappointment? Masa, who will fail to seize the closer opportunity.
How many wins will we finish with? 77
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. .212 & 6
by ken from alexandria on Jul 17, 2008 9:53 AM EDT 0 recs
I thought we agreed were only trading Peralta for outstanding packages. I don’t think merely a minor league 2B or OF with pop counts as such.
On the other hand, anyone who thinks that Canada will win Olympic gold can’t be half bad.
by supermarioelia on
Jul 17, 2008 11:34 AM EDT
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anyone who thinks that Canada will win Olympic gold can’t be half sane.
That looks better.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on
Jul 17, 2008 4:45 PM EDT
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What current Indian will have a huge second half? I don’t see a huge second half for any of them. Cliff Lee’s ERA will stay low, but I don’t see him getting to 20 wins because the team won’t score enough, and you can’t win if you don’t score, right? Grady Sizemore will come closest to a huge second 42%.
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? Asdrubal Cabrera, who will be in the lineup by August.
Who will be the biggest disappointment? To be disappointing, one must fail to meet expectations, so Sowers and Betancourt cannot disappoint, almost by definition. Neither can Dellucci, Byrd, or Garko. We’ll be disappointed when Lee finishes with 17 wins and a bunch of no-decisions and fails to win the Cy Young. We’ll be disappointed when VMart comes back and still doesn’t hit 20 HRs. We’ll be disappointed when LaPorta doesn’t hit .400 in September and doesn’t cure cancer. The real biggest disappointment will be trades that fail to be consummated.
How many wins will we finish with? 75
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. Upthread, I said .250 and 7, so I guess I should stick with that. If he keeps up his pace since July 4, and plays the same amount of time he has since July 4, he’ll hit .258 with 8 HR.
by FredOx on Jul 17, 2008 10:08 AM EDT 0 recs
Cabrera will be up by tomorrow, it seems.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on
Jul 17, 2008 4:46 PM EDT
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What current Indian will have a huge second half? Fausto
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? Aubrey
Who will be the biggest disappointment? Kobayashi
How many wins will we finish with? More than the Royals
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. Good enough to start next year
by Brick. on Jul 17, 2008 11:16 AM EDT 0 recs
What current Indian will have a huge second half? Grady.
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? Asdrubal (but it won’t be a big mark—he’ll be recalled later in the summer and play regularly.
Who will be the biggest disappointment? Jensen Lewis (he won’t get better); Hafner (neither will he)
How many wins will we finish with? 78
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. BA: .240/HR 8
by peter m on Jul 17, 2008 11:43 AM EDT 0 recs
What a nice, optimistic bunch of fans here. Only one prediction of the team playing worse than .500 from here on out. I love this team, but all things considered, not sure how they play .500 ball through the end of September.
You know Selig? Ombudsman.
by rolub on Jul 17, 2008 12:54 PM EDT 0 recs
(1) Get Carmona back.
(2) Get Martinez back.
(3) Marte > Garko
(4) Cabrera > Carroll
(5) 23 games against the Mariners, Royals and Orioles
by FredOx on
Jul 17, 2008 1:08 PM EDT
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i think our bullpen will improve, too. i mean, don’t they almost have to?
by Brick. on
Jul 17, 2008 1:24 PM EDT
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1) Lose CC. Carmona returning still leaves 1 black hole in the rotation as it currently stands.
2) Prove 3 and 4 are true.
Just playing .500 ball would be an improvement. I’ll happily take 75 wins at this point.
You know Selig? Ombudsman.
by rolub on
Jul 17, 2008 1:25 PM EDT
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Prove? This is a prediction thread. He’s saying Marte and Cabrera will play better than Garko and Carroll have played.
by Jay on
Jul 17, 2008 11:20 PM EDT
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He’s not predicting anything there, he’s giving reasons.
So he’s predicting 23 games against the Mariners, Royals, and Orioles? Should I give him odds on that?
Unless 1, 2, and 5 are reasons, and 3 and 4 are predictions. So if you can read his mind, kudos to you.
You know Selig? Ombudsman.
by rolub on
Jul 18, 2008 11:56 AM EDT
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You’re not refuting anything here, you’re splitting hairs.
He can’t prove #3 and #4, but they aren’t outlandish expectations, and nobody can prove anything.
He can’t prove Fausto and Victor are coming back, either.
by Jay on
Jul 18, 2008 12:26 PM EDT
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It’s my mind, so I’m pretty sure I can read it. For those inclined to need an algorithm, here’s what I meant:
Given 5, if 1-4 turn out to be true, 75-80 wins is optimistic, but not completely unreasonable. You said “not sure how they play .500 ball through the end of September,” and I provided one possible way they can do that. It’s the future, so asking me to prove that Marte will post better numbers than Garko would is asking the impossible, unless you’d like me to use my time machine.
by FredOx on
Jul 18, 2008 12:37 PM EDT
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please do.
my time machine is in the shop till Tuesday.
You know Selig? Ombudsman.
by rolub on
Jul 18, 2008 3:37 PM EDT
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What current Indian will have a huge second half? Choo
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? Cabrera
Who will be the biggest disappointment? Garko (ongoing)
How many wins will we finish with? 70
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. .212 / 9 HR
Bonus:
Beau Mills is going to have a huge second half. (+1.000 OPS)
Carmona’s going to be nasty but get hurt again
Blake to the Rays, Byrd to the Cardinals
Dellucci finshes the season on the active roster and awful.
Kobayashi is our closer going into next year, no one is happy about it.
by NickFantana on Jul 17, 2008 1:33 PM EDT 0 recs
Bite your tongue, dude. As a former resident of St. Louis, I still root for them in the NL, and I doubt even Duncan can resuscitate Byrd.
by FredOx on
Jul 17, 2008 1:46 PM EDT
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You underestimate Duncan. He has resuscitated far worse than Byrd
by Roger Dorn on
Jul 17, 2008 1:47 PM EDT
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I never understimate Duncan. Look at their rotation this year. I just refuse to overestimate Byrd.
by FredOx on
Jul 17, 2008 1:56 PM EDT
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What current Indian will have a huge second half? Victor
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? Adrubal
Who will be the biggest disappointment? Gutz
How many wins will we finish with? 72
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. .230 11HR
Byrd will not be traded.
LaPorta will CRUSH a 1.100 OPS in about 50 AB at the end of September at the Prog.
Raffy L will emerge as the foundation of the pullpen going in to 2009.
by KevinV on Jul 17, 2008 3:43 PM EDT 0 recs
I like the idea of a pullpen—it suggests clearly what needs to be done with many of the pitchers who inhabit it!
by peter m on
Jul 17, 2008 4:14 PM EDT
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Cue the Olde Tyme over-sized Vaudville performer yanking cane.
by KevinV on
Jul 17, 2008 6:02 PM EDT
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Here’s a crazy idea. Has any org tried to convert Jeff Weaver to closer?
by elsandito on Jul 17, 2008 5:03 PM EDT 0 recs
Doubtful – the last time he appeared in relief in any meaningful amount was with the Yankees in 2002, when he earned 2 saves.
by FredOx on
Jul 17, 2008 5:11 PM EDT
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I’m answering Jeff Weaver for all of them.
Marte with .199 average and 5 homers.
by mjschaefer on Jul 17, 2008 6:04 PM EDT 0 recs
What current Indian will have a huge second half?
I think Peralta keeps on going strong and puts up numbers akin to his 2005 numbers from here out. Something like 290/350/550.
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark?
Cabrera if he counts. If not, I’m not terribly enthusiastic about anyone in Buffalo. Probably one of the September call-ups in 25 ABs or something (LaPorta?)
Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Hafner and Martinez struggle to get back to Cleveland so we can’t make any real evaluation of their health/ability going into 2009.
On the field, Francisco and Choo show flashes but neither shows enough to convince that they are an answer going forward.
How many wins will we finish with?
I figure we play within a couple games of .500 the rest of the way, so…34-34 to finish at 75-87
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns.
Marte gets about 200 PAs the rest of the way and puts up fairly decent numbers from here out, maybe like 260/320/440.
So that would put his BA at like .230-.235 to end the year. And let’s say 7HRs.
by DaveE on Jul 17, 2008 6:38 PM EDT 0 recs
What current Indian will have a huge second half?
Grady, of course. Also Choo, who will show he deserves a starting job next year and a possibility as our new leadoff hitter next year (at least against righties).
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark?
I was going to say AstroCab (I still like that nickname) but it’s too late for that. So I guess I’ll go for LaPorta wooing the fans with a couple great weeks at the end of September.
Who will be the biggest disappointment?
BenFran will show he’s not a long-term answer—if Shapiro doesn’t flip him for something before the deadline while his numbers still look decent.
How many wins will we finish with?
76
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns.
.250 and 11 HR
Predictions—Fausto and Victor come back and play well. Pronk doesn’t come back until September, if at all. Blake is traded but Byrd is not. Peralta continues to hit well and cement his position on next year’s team.
Chicago runs away with the Central as the Twins start regressing to what their hitting stats say the should be doing. Other playoff teams: Boston, LAA, Tampa Bay (wild card). In the NL, Mets move ahead of the Phillies in the East, Cubs hold off the Brewers who get the wild card, and Arizona win the West (with a .500 record).
World Series: Boston over Milwaukee. CC pitches great but Sheets and the rest of the rotation falter against the Sox. Boston fans become even bigger pricks.
by Buckeye Brad on Jul 17, 2008 11:21 PM EDT 0 recs
”.Boston fans become even bigger pricks”
Longest shot on the board.
by elsandito on
Jul 18, 2008 10:51 AM EDT
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What current Indian will have a huge second half? Francisco
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? John Halama
Who will be the biggest disappointment? Victor
How many wins will we finish with? 77
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. .177 4
Garko gets traded at the deadline to Florida.
LAA beats FLA in the WS
AL MVP- Justin Morneau AL CY- K-ROD (63 S)
Sizemore gets a GG and ends up with 31 HR’s
by IZIO33 on Jul 18, 2008 12:52 AM EDT 0 recs
Halama had a complete game, 8 H, 2 ER start for Buffalo last night. I believe the usual baseball description would be that he scattered those eight hits, as the runs came on a 2-run HR.
by FredOx on
Jul 18, 2008 11:57 AM EDT
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What current Indian will have a huge second half? Laffey; also Carmona, if he counts.
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? Cabrera (“current” when this FanPost was put up).
Who will be the biggest disappointment? Sowers
How many wins will we finish with? 74
Guess Andy Marte’s season ending average & homeruns. .239, 10
Francisco finishes with a .287 BA, .349 OBP and 15 homers. Grady hits 37 homers.
by Matt Y. on Jul 18, 2008 10:11 AM EDT 0 recs
I hesitate to predict anything because of my poor showing in previous prediction thread, but what the hell?:
I think Carmona, Raffy P, Peralta, and Cabrera will have huge second halves.
Gutierrez and Choo will have very good second halfs, with mixed but overall encouraging results from Marte and Sowers.
Toreagas will get a callup and do reasonably well, Garko will be restored to AAA and Francisco will thoroughly tank and finish with awful numbers. Barfield and Hafner will remain disabled. Byrd will only get worse, and hopefully he’s traded so we won’t have to see it.
by jhon on Jul 18, 2008 11:23 AM EDT 0 recs
What current Indian will have a huge second half? Carmona
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? Perez
Who will be the biggest disappointment?Hafner
How many wins will we finish with?69
Andy Marte).204 6HR
by Sizemorgasim on Jul 18, 2008 12:38 PM EDT 0 recs
Which (current) minor leaguer will make the biggest mark? Perez
am i forgetting a perez?
by Brick. on
Jul 18, 2008 12:51 PM EDT
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The Perez most likely to have an impact on the second half of the 2008 season is Eduardo Perez.
by FredOx on
Jul 18, 2008 1:21 PM EDT
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Alexander Perez of the GCL Indians? Interesting choice.
by jhon on
Jul 18, 2008 12:51 PM EDT
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I’m interested to see how Jake’s remaining 24 IP in 2008 turn out.
by supermarioelia on
Jul 21, 2008 9:19 AM EDT
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Sheez, Notre Dame – bunch of frat-boy stunods.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
by mauichuck on
Jul 21, 2008 10:18 AM EDT
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Biggest Second Half- Sizemore ( Hopefully Wedge at some point will figure out at some point lead off hitters should not be hitting 40 HR; if Crowe stays healthy maybe we see him move to the 3 spot in the lineup in Sept.)
Biggest Disappointment – Marte/ Gootz… I am always confused by the love for Marte on this site… two of the best organizations in baseball have given up on him (ATL and BOS).... that should have been the first sign that something was wrong… He knew he had a chance to win a spot this year and to show up out of shape in spring training is a lack of professionalism… Gootz is like Pedro Cerano cannot hit a curve ball although probably a great 4th outfield to keep because of his great late inning Defense especially if they are going to play Laporta in the OF.
Minor League: I hope that it will be HUFF because we need a number 4 next year.
Marte: 232 AVG HR 8 ( Hopefully Traded) move Peralta to 3b A-Cab to SS and either Barfield or find a free agent 2B.
by NCTRIB on Jul 21, 2008 10:52 AM EDT 0 recs
two of the best organizations in baseball have given up on him (ATL and BOS)
Rule number 1: don’t ever let anyone else do your thinking for you.
Cleveland “gave up” on BP, Tampa “gave up” on Josh Hamilton. There’s plenty of other examples of good organizations “giving up” on young players only to see those players become wildly successful.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer