Minor Gainers and Losers
by APV
on Jul 18, 2008 10:07 AM EDT
We've had posts on the statistical performance of some of our more exciting minor league hitters and pitchers. Here is my take on guys who have improved their stock, declined, or just stayed in line with expectations. This list is not quite as exclusionary as Jay's Exciting Prospect List, but is focused on guys who are or might be interesting at some point.
Jordan Brown (DOWN): After two seasons of maintaining a high average with great plate discipline and lots of doubles, hopes for Brown were that he'd maintain the first two and start to turn a few of those doubles into HRs. Instead his plate discipline has gone down fairly dramatically (BB% 12.5>7.5, K% 9.9>14.3) and he has actually lost power.
Chris Gimenez (EVEN): Gimenez forced himself into the interesting category by blasting Eastern League pitching to the tune of a 1.024 for the first two months of the season. His transition to AAA has not gone well, though (.613 OPS)
Adam Miller (DOWN): "If you don't have your health, you don't have anything"
David Huff (UP): After missing almost all of 2007, Huff has emerged as our best pitching prospect by crushing AA and AAA hitters. Huff's numbers have actually improved since his promotion from Akron to Buffalo (K/PA% 24.5>27.9, BB/PA% 5.5>2.9). The FO is monitoring his innings since he's coming off injury, so we may not see him in Cleveland till next season. He looks ready, though.
Jeff Stevens (EVEN): His control is down a little from last year, but he is still striking out guys at a better than 1.25/IP rate at the AAA level.
Wyatt Torregas (EVEN): Entered this season as the emergency 3rd catcher by starting at Buffalo. Showed next to no ability to hit and eventually got demoted to work with Akron's hitting coach. Now looks like Babe Ruth with a .347/.435/.787 line in just under a month at Akron. If he can hit 2/3 of that in Cleveland he's a very respectable backup option behind the plate.
Trevor Crowe (EVEN): Performance (.921OPS) would suggest he's gone up (and re-enetered the interesting category). Unfortunately his performance has been limited by injuries.
Wes Hodges (EVEN): Steady as she goes for Hodges (.313/.387/.470, 31 XBHs).
Josh Rodriguez (EVEN): Still sticking in the middle infield and his numbers have been trending upwards (+.400 OBP since April).
Chuck Lofgren (DOWN): With the exception of two starts in May for Lofgren, it's been pretty bleak. Control problems and way too hittable for a guy with his stuff.
Reid Santos (DOWN): Earned a 40-man spot in the offseason because of last season's performance. Earned a demotion back to Akron after allowing batters to hit .378 off him.
Tony Sipp (UP): Pitching again.
Luis Perdomo (UP): As a 23-year old in Lake County last year, wasn't worth paying attention to despite good numbers. But now he's worked his way to Akron and is still putting up good numbers out of the pen.
Nick Weglarz (UP): Ok...I wish he had about 25 HRs already, but he is just 20. And while his power numbers are down a little right now from last year, he has upped his BB% and lowered his K% substantially.
Beau Mills (UP): Mills has also made some improvements in his K:BB numbers and has actually added a little power. Like Weglarz, not way up, but up.
Jared Goedert (DOWN): Goedert's got a thin margin of error because of his age (although made wider by his switch to 2B) and needs to be exceeding expectations to keep raising his ceiling. He's been ok this year, but his BB% and power numbers are both down.
Carlos Rivero (EVEN): His numbers aren't super, but they're improving, and he's still a very young shortstop at high-A.
John Drennen (DOWN): He'll always have Roger Clemens...
Hector Rondon (UP): His Futures Game appearance solidifies his transition from interesting young guy to legit high-ceiling starting pitching prospect. That and 107Ks in 99 innings.
Josh Tomlin (UP): Tomlin's not going to matter much till he gets to Akron because of his age, but he's got 73Ks and just 9 walks! And he's worked as both a starter and a bullpen guy. Move him up!
Jeanmar Gomez (DOWN): Gomez hasn't made the transition as well as Rondon, but he's still just 20. A few too many HRs and walks so far.
Mike Pontius (EVEN): Entered the realm of the interesting by putting up videogame numbers in Lake County. Has still been striking out better than a guy an inning in Kinston, but has lost his control and gotten hitten around pretty badly.
Kelvin De La Cruz (UP): Chasing Rondon for the title of most exciting young pitcher in the system.
Other young guys to look out for in the 2nd half:
Joey Mahalic and Chris Archer: young pitchers in the Lake County rotation with interesting stuff
Jeremie Tice and Lonnie Chissenhall: Two 2008 draftees in Mahoning Valley. Tice has been tearing it up since he got there, Chisenhall's been a little up and down.
Matt McBride: Catching prospect working his way back into playing shape. Look for him to get promoted up to Kinston soon.
Abner Abreu: I wouldn't suggest making a habit of getting excited by GCL prospects. But Abreu is an 18-year old Dominican 3B who is putting up a legitimate .299/.349/.636 line in Florida.
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I think Jeanmar is (EVEN). It’s unclear to me what the motivation is to keep him in A+ but there must be some reason. If he was in A I really think his numbers would be comparable to Kelvin’s and Tomlin’s. His strikeout rate is very good and he’s a month and two days older than Kelvin.
He’s the pitching equivalent of Carlos Rivero.
Also, Wegz went 2-3 with a 2B, a 3B, and a BB last night. If he wasn’t going to the stupid olympics I think we might see a monster 2nd half. He just passed Mills for the team lead in OPS.
by afh4 on Jul 18, 2008 10:34 AM EDT 0 recs
so is huff penciled in for a rotation spot next year or what?
by Brick. on Jul 18, 2008 10:48 AM EDT 0 recs
Provided he has a healthy and successful remainder of the season/spring, I hope so. But I could also see Cleveland starting him in Buffalo and giving him two months to pitch his way onto the staff.
by APV on
Jul 18, 2008 10:54 AM EDT
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yeah, i don’t think he starts the year topside – they just never seem to do that. but i think they have to be thinking he’s going to get a lot of starts next year with the indians.
for miller, i say they just pitch him in the majors while he’s healthy. he keeps getting hurt trying to prove he can stay healthy. might as well use him while you can. or put him in the bullpen.
by Brick. on
Jul 18, 2008 11:01 AM EDT
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I find it curious that for the last three years someone has leap-frogged Miller during the season to become our best pitching prospect.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on
Jul 21, 2008 8:00 AM EDT
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Could work the other way, though, given Westbrook’s timetable. Could start the year with him and then send him back down to work on stuff once Westbrook is back. It’s really going to depend on the other guys — as Brick says, they never seem to do that, and the reason is that they do seem to find a marginal veteran and then just let everything Johnson/Sowers itself out. Maybe it will even be Byrd on a one-year deal.
You know I’m rarely in favor of rushing a guy, but Huff so far shows little room for improvement. His peripherals are just perfect, and they’re even better in Buffalo than they were in Akron. His ERA has risen, but almost entirely as a function of giving up too many of his hits with runners in scoring position (.345, vs. .190 in other situations). Here’s something to love, though … in about 65 PA with one or more runners on base, he’s allowed only one walk.
Anyway, I don’t know what pitches he’s working on, and I haven’t scouted him, but he was drafted in the first round because of his advanced pitchability, so I’m not sure in this case what the team will wait for. He’s going to be 24 next month, so even if they do the “really dumb thing” and he ends up with exactly six years of service time, we’re talking about a pitcher walking at age 30 rather than 31 — and you just can’t worry about that six years in advance.
Bottom line, I think they’ll keep him off the 40-man so they can protect an extra guy, but if he’s clearly the best guy for the fifth spot in the rotation coming out of Spring Training, I think he’ll get the call. Put it another way, if Sowers doesn’t show us something in the next ten weeks, he’s going to end up behind Huff in the pecking order come March.
by Jay on
Jul 18, 2008 11:15 AM EDT
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i have a hunch we sign bryd to a one year deal with a team DFA option.
by Brick. on
Jul 18, 2008 11:52 AM EDT
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Speaking of service time, did you read this? So teams aren’t actually allowed to keep guys in the minors just for the sake of time clock management? Does this agent have a leg to stand on or is he just blowing hot air?
by supermarioelia on
Jul 18, 2008 2:09 PM EDT
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They are allowed to do that. Furthermore, Liriano’s presence in AAA has a lot more to do with his 11.32 ERA in his first month back from TJ surgery than it does his 2 yrs and 45 days’ service time. The Twinkies are a game and a half out of first, and I hardly think they’d miss the playoffs in order to avoid arbitration with their phormer phenom. Why is everything a conspiracy?
by FredOx on
Jul 18, 2008 2:26 PM EDT
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All the team has to do is say “No, we didn’t. We wanted him to work on X.”
Liriano’s a weird situation. He’s right on the cusp of this being an interesting discussion but his putridness earlier makes it impossible.
What if, this is absurd but, what if a team had a Grady/Hanley type guy, not bought out, the team’s tanking, Granley is raking. And they send him down. That would be an interesting thing to follow.
by afh4 on
Jul 18, 2008 2:27 PM EDT
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I just thought about the type of stats Granley would post, it was a beautiful thing.
by Pronk33 on
Jul 18, 2008 11:34 PM EDT
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I’m actually writing a little guest piece for Twinkie Town about this. The short answer: hot air.
by Jay on
Jul 18, 2008 3:07 PM EDT
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Continuing on with Sowers, what do you think his problem has been since he first broke in during the 2006 season? Based on his minor league stats and age, it doesn’t seem like there’s much more for him to accomplish in Buffalo, but he hasn’t been able to make a successful transition to the Majors.
Did hitters figure him out that quickly, is it mental, have his mechanics changed? I was going to try and break down his pitch mechanics/selection later on, but Sowers just seems like a weird case considering he had that awesome burst with Cleveland two years ago. He seems to be in danger of getting lapped by the “next wave” of pitching prospects now.
by Pronk33 on
Jul 18, 2008 11:41 PM EDT
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There was a long thread on the Sowers “enigma” about a week ago. FanPost, I think.
by ken from alexandria on
Jul 19, 2008 8:34 AM EDT
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Original baseball name. I’m already attached to this prospect for almost no other reason.
by jhon on
Jul 18, 2008 11:34 AM EDT
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Original, except for the guy credited for a long time with originating the game of baseball in America.
by APV on
Jul 18, 2008 11:41 AM EDT
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Sipp’s outing last night must have been painful to watch: 0.0 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, GS.
by FredOx on Jul 18, 2008 11:53 AM EDT 0 recs
Grand slams are painful only for a few seconds. It’s not like root canal or Jason Davis.
by ken from alexandria on
Jul 18, 2008 12:24 PM EDT
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Anyone notice that hitters that were mashing in AA are struggling now? And hitters that were doing ok/poor at their previous level are now mashing in AA? Is it just coincidence, or maybe the signs of a weak league/hitters parks?
by Toxicadam on Jul 18, 2008 1:12 PM EDT 0 recs
I know Kevin Dixon will never make it onto a PTM list due to his age (drafted as a senior in 2005), but he’s a big strong righty that has been converted to a starting pitcher and just keeps getting incrementally better as he advances. In his first exposure to AA, his K rate has jumped, and he’s been a steady workhorse. No reason why he wouldn’t be on the depth chart at Buffalo next year.
Frank Herrmann fits the same kinda mold, but hasn’t been as consistent this year, although he did pitch one of the best games of the year in a reecent spot start at Buffalo, striking out 10 in 6 innings.
by mcrose on Jul 18, 2008 1:24 PM EDT 0 recs
I’m actually more intrigued by Ryan Edell than Kevin Dixon, only because Edell has a very good walk rate (two years running). Both are potential candidates for a Brian Slocum/Jason Stanford role (i.e. emergency minor league veteran starter stashed in Buffalo).
by APV on
Jul 18, 2008 2:34 PM EDT
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Hello mcrose & APV,
Like APV, I too have been intrigued by Edell, especially after last season when he was thriving quite well at Kinston (though admittedly old for the Carolina League at age 23). In fact, if I remember correctly, he was even better when he was shifted into the rotation from the bullpen, and he wasn’t bad there either.
As for Dixon, during last season, I thought this guy would be just an organizational guy, as he was really struggling at Kinston. However, I’ve been surprised by the drop in his BB rate and the increase in his K rate, all at the important higher level of AA, enough so that I think he could perhaps have a ML future in some role. Granted, he still doesn’t have a high ceiling, but last year, I was about to write him off like I’m about to do with Sung-Wei Tseng, who’s even struggling a bit in his return to Kinston (after getting torched in Akron). So, for now, Dixon is back on the outskirts of the prospect map for me.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
by indiansfan on
Jul 18, 2008 7:14 PM EDT
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By the way, the word is “selective,” not “exclusionary.”
Great post.
by Jay on Jul 18, 2008 1:40 PM EDT 0 recs
And by the way, I no longer have an exciting prospects list.
by Jay on
Jul 18, 2008 8:32 PM EDT
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Hello everyone,
I agree that one should not get too high on GCL Indians, but one other guy besides Abner Abreu who I’ve been keeping an eye on is RHP Alexander Perez (no relation to Rafael as far as I know):
His current ERA is 5.09, but that was due to a bad outing on July 11 (his first and only bad outing so far this season if I remember correctly – 2.0 IP/8 H/8 ER/4 BB/3 K), but even with that bad outing, his peripherals are pretty strong:
23.0 IP/20 H/13 R/13 ER/1 HR/9 BB/22 K, 1.81 GO/AO, .235 BAA
(Without that July 11 outing: 21.0 IP/12 H/5 R/5 ER/1 HR/5 BB/19 K).
The Dominican turns 19-YO this upcoming Thursday (July 24) – while he’s still a good deal away, I think he’s someone to keep an eye on, or at least, keep his name in the back of your minds – it’s possible he could be the next big leaper like Rondon and De La Cruz have been this season in another year or two.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
by indiansfan on Jul 18, 2008 7:20 PM EDT 0 recs
Crowe is playing tonight.
KDLC already has 4 K’s through 4 innings. His ERA is now 1.73. Why is he down still? I don’t get the deployment of he and Jeanmar. Not that it’s a huge deal, it’s just odd looking.
by afh4 on Jul 18, 2008 8:27 PM EDT 0 recs
And De La Cruz (Soul) now has 8 K’s through 6 innings. 3 hits and one BB.
He’s got to be getting close to his last start in Lake County. His ERA is now 1.69.
by afh4 on
Jul 18, 2008 8:54 PM EDT
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Lofgren pitching in relief in Akron. Gave up a double, got 2 K’s. Ick.
by afh4 on
Jul 18, 2008 8:58 PM EDT
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Anyone got a scouting report on him? It’s kind of hard to find. I did discover some Lake County article that says he apparently touches 94 at times? That would kind of be a huge deal if true.
by Joe. on
Jul 19, 2008 10:51 AM EDT
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I listened to part of the game last night, and his fastball was sitting at 92 and reaching 94 several times as late as the fifth, when I stopped listening. He got stronger as the game went on with his command, and he doesn’t waste any time at all. He was often on the rubber waiting for the batter to get back in the box between pitches. Changeup was at 82-83, when he used it.
by mcrose on
Jul 19, 2008 12:06 PM EDT
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They just don’t make moves at the drop of a hat, that’s all.
April-May: 52:28 K:BB, 57.2 IP
June-July: 44:6 K:BB, 38 IP
Looking at April-May, you can see that he’s doing well, but the walk rate is worrisome, especially considering he’s a little old for the league. In six starts in May, he lasted less than six innings and walked three batters per start. His peripherals for June-July are phenomenal — meaning, it probalby makes sense to promote him soon, but it wasn’t clear-cut a month ago.
by Jay on
Jul 19, 2008 12:37 PM EDT
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Bummer about T.J. McFarland. I’d kind of hoped he’d be a sleeper this year.
by fleerdon on Jul 18, 2008 9:11 PM EDT 0 recs
Is he hurt or something? That link just goes to his player card where I didn’t see anything except a decent line.
by afh4 on
Jul 18, 2008 9:22 PM EDT
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Nah, I’m just bummed about the 7:13 BB:K in 24 innings. I secretly was hoping for rocket launch out of him, but for no reason. Maybe I just remembered his name.
Has anybody heard anything about us signing Trey Haley?
by fleerdon on
Jul 18, 2008 9:29 PM EDT
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He’s doing alright on groundballs. His ERA is low. There’s always the chance he’s too good for the league and they’ve got him working on something.
by afh4 on
Jul 18, 2008 9:36 PM EDT
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The guy made his first start ever, 29 days ago, and you guys already are bummed and dissecting his performances?
Hey, from June to July, his peripherals got way better — but his HR rate went up infinitely!
by Jay on
Jul 19, 2008 12:50 PM EDT
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I just wanted to see him hit the ground running. I recognize that if he does well in the second half, he will, in fact, have hit the ground running. It was totally irrational, and I’m probably just projecting my own various insecurities onto some poor pitcher whose scouting report I liked.
by fleerdon on
Jul 19, 2008 1:45 PM EDT
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And one of the four singles came after a 2-out fielding error, resulting in an unearned run. I’ll take that line.
by FredOx on
Jul 21, 2008 1:39 PM EDT
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His peripherals have skyrocketed since the break!
K/BB before the break: 1.86.
K/BB after the break: INFINITE.
by Jay on
Jul 21, 2008 4:03 PM EDT
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And in his last inning he struck out two guys! Think about that over the course of an entire season.
by APV on
Jul 21, 2008 4:11 PM EDT
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Hey, when the season’s in the tank, you have to search for things to get excited about, even if it’s five innings in a GCL game. I’m excited that Matt McBride’s OPS against LHP is 1.767, even if it’s only 10 AB and indicative of precisely nothing. Then again, the high point of my weekend may have been the “Watchmen may not suck completely” moment before The Dark Knight, so perhaps I’m just a loser.
by FredOx on
Jul 21, 2008 4:23 PM EDT
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We’re just riffing on Andrew being depressed and disappointed about a guy, like, three innings into his pro career.
There was a “Watchmen may not suck completely” moment?
by Jay on
Jul 21, 2008 4:34 PM EDT
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Tyler.
TYLER. Not Andrew.
I know way more about prospects than that chump. I hardly even look at MVS box scores and then only to see if there’s something fun and potentially good. Bad performances I just ignore.
by afh4 on
Jul 21, 2008 4:52 PM EDT
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Hahaha. Fine, you’re not a chump. Nice hardwoods.
Akron about to start a 4:35 game! This is how you become a real prospect dittohead. You listen to these dumb games every day. Sometimes over the major legue games.
I can’t think of T.J. McFarland without thinking of Booger:
by afh4 on
Jul 21, 2008 5:39 PM EDT
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The first trailer was the Watchmen teaser. I’ve always been in the “Watchmen is unfilmable” camp, but the trailer actually looked pretty good, even though there was more light than heat. They’re doing a fairly extensive sneak preview in San Diego, so we’ll see. The fanboys in the audience had a bit of a nergasm when Rorschach first appeared.
by FredOx on
Jul 21, 2008 4:54 PM EDT
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I think you gotta give Gimenez more than just an even. He finished last year with just a .718 ops at Akron and now he’s been promoted (and Torregas has been demoted). Looking at a wider time frame, after 2 years at Lake County, he’s at AAA after just 636 abs at A+ and AA, ie, relatively fast. He’s continued to develop offensively. If he continues to struggle, then in the next assessment he should rate as disappointing but for now I’d rate him as exceeding expectations.
by plato on Jul 19, 2008 1:56 AM EDT 0 recs
APV, geat post, as always. One thing I would quibble with is Wes Hodges’ even score. I would say he has improved his stock this year by maintaining his performance on the jump to AA. The OPS is the same as it was last year, but this time its coming with a higher OBP and lower slugging. The lower ISO should be noted, but he has been able to cut down the K’s which partly explains the higher BA. He’s also stayed healthy this year, which is nice.
by ClarkM on Jul 19, 2008 2:11 AM EDT 0 recs
Tony Lastoria says Kelvin De La Cruz is getting promoted to Kinston. The “choose your favorite pitching prospect” battle between him and Rondon becomes a teammate affair again.
by APV on Jul 21, 2008 4:02 PM EDT 0 recs
Can I not choose David Huff as my favorite pitching prospect?
by Roger Dorn on
Jul 21, 2008 4:54 PM EDT
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Does this mean Rondon moves up to Akron?
Also from Lastoria: “RHP Brendan Donnelly was officially called up to Buffalo today. To make room for him, RHP J.D. Martin was sent to Akron.” What? J.D. MARTIN DID NOTHING WRONG!
by ken from alexandria on
Jul 21, 2008 6:17 PM EDT
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akron is closer to cleveland? i don’t know
by Gradyforpresident on
Jul 21, 2008 6:24 PM EDT
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This isn’t worth its own FanShot, so I’ll just note here that the current (July 28-Aug 10) issue of Baseball America has an article by Ben Badler about developments occurring since the beginning of the international signing period on July 2. The Indians appear to have been one of the more active teams. Badler’s piece is not on the BA website, so I can’t link it. Here are the Tribe-related highlights.
The Indians spent $700,000 on Alex Monsalve, a 16-year-old Venezuelan infielder who might end up at catcher (sound familiar)?
For something like $575,000, the Indians signed a 16-year-old shortstop from the Dominican named Jose Osoria. Sounds like a defensive whiz.
For unannounced sums, they also signed Dominican RHP Edward Pinales and Colombian shortstop Giovanny Urshella.
by ken from alexandria on Jul 21, 2008 8:37 PM EDT 0 recs
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