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Blake could easily get a $6 million deal on the open market, if he were willing to take a one-year deal.

What he’ll actually do is hold out for a three-year deal in the range of $16 million, possibly more. While that would be a lower average annual salary than just accepting arbitration, his agent no doubt will advise him that at his age, he should go for the deal with the highest guaranteed total.

I do not think he would accept arbitration from the Rays. There is a small but significant chance he would accept it from the Indians, his team since 2003.

Hmmm…a midlevel prospect? I think we’ve got a few of those that aren’t doing us a whole lot of good right now, especially pitching, like James Houser (AA), Heath Rollins (A+), and Alex Cobb (A). I would love to see the Rays work a deal for Blake.

To be fair and honest, I’m probably in the minority of Rays fans for wanting Blake. Most want Bay, Holliday, or Nady, but all of those guys scare me for one reason or another. Holliday has atrocious home/road splits, Nady is having a career year which I don’t think he can sustain, and Bay would cost a ton in prospects. The only guy I think would be better than Blake is Jayson Werth, but the Phils are in contention, so that may not be as doable.

First, the arb stuff is going to be answered accurately by Jay. But, no, I don’t think he’ll take arbitration from the Rays. He can easily make that much on the open market; Mike Lowell is making 12 million a year and Blake and Lowell are more similar than most people would think at this point in their careers. Plus, Lowell’s deal is going to be a couple of years old. Casey will get a mini-Lowell deal I’d think, probably some like 3/24.

I think he’d take arbitration from the Indians. This is an argument Jay has made persuasively; certain types of players will do it in gratitude to their teams, going to arbitration, then leaving for FA. It gives the team a draft pick at no cost.

Second, what type of return do you guys think Shapiro would be looking for for Blake? Would it be mostly a salary dump/roster space move, with a couple of low-mid level prospects, or would Shapiro try to get a really solid prospect?

If he’s trading, Shapiro is going to the table with a big sign that says “Casey Blake, Free!” The Indians are going to eat his remaining salary in order to maximize return. This has been Dolan and Shap’s MO for a while. It’s not going to be a salary dump or roster clearing. Casey Blake is useful; in fact, right now he’s probably more useful than he’s ever been.

So, I think you’re looking at a David Price or Wade Davis type.

Zing! Kidding.

In all seriousness, your comp deals are the Broussard and Perez trades from 2006, suped up a little bit. Shapiro is a good trading partner in that he tends to be involved in deals that allow other teams to deal from a position of strength. This was on display with the CC situation-Milwaukee just has too many hitters to use and we took some.

For the Ray, your depth is obviously in pitching as well as a bit in CF and C. We don’t want any more outfielders and we’re alright at catcher.

I think the list is going to look something like this and I would look for a deal that involves a huge ceiling guy who’s under 20 and a guy who’s a little more advanced but not all that good:

Eduardo Morlan
Jeremy Hellickson
Alex Cobb
Nick Barnese
Heath Rollins
James Houser
Mitch Talbot
Glenn Gibson
Chris Mason

I would want to see a player like Hellickson, Houser or Morlan as the centerpiece but that might be a little ambitious. I think more likely is something like Talbot or Mason, both of whom the sheen is probably off and aren’t really needed with Price, McGee, and Davis so close, and then one of Cobb, Barnese, or Rollins. We sort of have a thing for depth starters.

I could see them doing Hellickson, Houser, or Morlan straight up.

Third, I don’t know much about Blake other than his offensive stats. How is his defense, especially in RF? And how is he regarded as a teammate/clubhouse presence?

His defense is fine all over the diamond and not great anywhere. He’s considered a superior athlete. His weakest defense is, I think at 3B. He hits well, especially this year. He has a big beard, which people tend to associate with leadership.

I think I speak for all of Casey’s fans when I say that the Rays would be getting a guy who has blossomed this year into the kind of clutch hitter that he was projected to be. It would be a thrill for all of us to see Casey lead the Rays into and through the playoffs. You would be getting a clubhouse presence and a player who can play 6 positions. If Shapiro agreed to pay the balance of Casey’s salary, it would make the Rays transition entirely painless as he would not be asking for a major league player in return.