2009 Most Pressing Needs?

by ShawnK on Jul 2, 2008 10:54 AM EDT Comment 42 comments

Unless we can put together a Colorado Rockie-esque 2007 winning streak, we have moved into the unfortunate "Take Stock, Move Inventory, and Reload" phase of the 2008 season.

I have seen a lot of chatter on this site about trading for sluggers to improve the offense in 2009 (Matt LaPorta is my favorite of these, but perhaps more of a 2010 fix), but there has not been, or I have missed, any discussion about what I think might be the most pressing need of the 2009 season and beyond: a dominant closer.

Looking at the first 84 games of this year, we have converted 14 of 27 save opportunities. If we had a decent closer (assume an 80% save rate), we would have already won 8 more games this year, and would find ourselves 4 games out of first.

In all fairness, Borowski does have an 80% career save rate, and he has not been given many opportunites to save games in the past month. However, it appears his age is finally getting the better of him as his ERA and arm have begun to give out.

So what's the arm-chair GM move to make ? Go for a closer or go for a bat? Or just go for value and hope for the best?

My dream scenario is to get both by trading CC plus a reliever to Milwaukee for:

AA Matt LaPorta: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Matt%20LaPorta&pos=RF&sid=t559&t=p_pbp&pid=453181

AAA Luis Pena: http://www.nashvillesounds.com/clubhouse/Default.asp?playerId=204

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the next few weeks.

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The thing about this is…we can probably get both!

We have needed a shut down closer for 5 or 6 years now. We actually havent really had a great one since Mesa was in his prime.

2007 – great bullpen…average to below average closer
2006 – terrible bullpen…Wickman trade…Carmona/F-Cab experiments\
2005 – great bullpen…Wickman at his best…Howry, Betancourt, and Rhodes were studs
2004 – below average bullpen…Wickman hurt for a major portion

We won 90 games in 05 and 07. Coincidence, I think not! Look at last night. There is another win with a good closer. I dont think we need a complete bullpen overhaul but a top closer would be key.

The Angels, Twins, and Red Sox seem to compete every year and every year they have one of the better bullpens.

by Tribe Alive on Jul 2, 2008 11:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I totally agree. Many people have commented on not pursuing relievers due to bullpen volatility, but it seems like the most consistent clubs have a rock solid closer. I think this anchor does a lot for the team because the rest of the bullpen has a set role. I haven’t seen any analysis, but I would guess that teams that try to close by committee or shift roles have a lower save rate. Maybe relievers are all head cases.

Last year was a perfect example. Borowski had the 9th while Perez and Raffy took the 8th. The roles were set and the relief was amazing. This year, Borowski goes down with a tricep injury, the roles shift, and all of a sudden everyone stinks.

by ShawnK on Jul 2, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the most pressing need is a bat for either 1st or 3rd base. The Tribe really needs another guy to plug into the lineup that has power and some OBP skills.

Obviously the bullpen has been a, if not the, key factor in the last few years. However, building a good bullpen takes a lot of luck as well as skill and trading CC for a bullpen arm seems sort of like a waste. There is just so much volatility among those guys.

by Cols714 on Jul 2, 2008 11:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The problem is that this FO doesn’t want to overpay for bullpen help. At least, recent history suggests that. They have tried to grow it (Baez, Carmona) instead.

I would think they are more likely to go with Perez before they bring in a Cordero-type of contract. Or maybe Stevens ..

If I was playing GM for a day, I would go out and get Heath Bell from the Padres. But that could be a pretty costly trade. It’s not like we have a wealth of prospects we can just fling around.

by Toxicadam on Jul 2, 2008 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The problem can not possibly be that the FO “doesn’t want to overpay” for anything. We should be glad that our FO does not want to overpay. Overpaying is, by definition, a problem for a team with limited resources.

You’d be more precise, I think, in saying that the FO doesn’t place a proper price on relief pitching. And that’s debatable.

by tabler84 on Jul 2, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The White Sox overpaid for Linebrink and it seems to be working out for them (so far).

Which goes back to my point. If you want to get proven, reliable bullpen help (via FA) .. you will have to outbid a few other teams to get it. Which means you will be “overpaying” in some regard.

by Toxicadam on Jul 2, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You can’t just pick out the best example of overpaying “working out” and use it without also mentioning that the Orioles spent some ungodly sum in the 06-07 offseason to add Chad Bradford, Danys Baez and Jaime Walker. Those moves totally blew up in their face.

The fundamental truth about bullpen talent is that there is no “proven and reliable.” Its volatile, look no further than Raffy Betancourt. Last year, people were upset that we didn’t lock him up longer. Now he sucks. That’s bullpens. The real key to a small market team isn’t selectively overpaying for bullpen “talent,” it’s never overpaying for a commodity so volatile that its virtually impossible to get a solid ROI. This is why we’ve signed Brendan Donnelly, Juan Rincon and Rick Bauer in the past year. None of them are good or bad, they’re all just relievers.

PS I’d be willing to wager a six pack that by the end of the deal, the White Sox end up taking a bath in that contract for Linebrink.

by NickFantana on Jul 2, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those Oriole signings do not have the track record that Linebrink has/had. Not a fair comparison.

Re: White sox taking bath

I agree with this. Which is what I meant by “overpaying”. They will most likely get 2 really great years from Linebrink and probably 2 average-bad years. The same assumption could probably be made of CC Sabathia. Whoever gets him is probably going to get 3-4 years of incredible pitching and 2-3 years of not so incredible pitching. It’s a trade-off you have to make to sign incredible talent. If you are able to win a World Series (or two) during that stretch of good service time, its completely worth it, imo.

So, at some point, if we can’t “grow our own” we have to go out and overpay for help. That means signing a potentially bad contract. You can’t keep calling on guys like Rincon and Bauer and expecting some kind of Borowski 07 miracle to occur again.

by Toxicadam on Jul 2, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I would point out too that “overpaying” for a reliever, like Linebrink, costs a lot less than overpaying for a lot of other things.

by KevinV on Jul 2, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Damn, Heath Bell looked awesome against the Indians. But they’re keeping him, no doubt, for when Trevor departs.

by odradek on Jul 2, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hitters

RPs (esp closer)

Hitting Coach

Baserunning smarts

Health

by JulioBernazard on Jul 2, 2008 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How about Jonathon Broxton from LA? I’m kinda not impressed with LaPorta…

One of these days... bang, zoom, straight to the moon...

by mixmasterasia on Jul 2, 2008 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not happening…end of story.

by Tribe Alive on Jul 2, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, there’s the possibility that he can eat as much as CC …

I did a Google image search for "Andy Marte." It turned up zero results.

by emd2k3 on Jul 2, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Broxton is about to hit arbitration and he’s a reliever, I’ll pass. Why are you not impressed with LaPorta? The defense is supposed to be pretty bad, but we could use him at left, first, or DH.

by ClarkM on Jul 2, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think we should be looking more at the hitting side. Pitching prospects flame out so often that I don’t trust them unless they are total studs.

by Cols714 on Jul 2, 2008 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Colby Rasmus & Chris Perez (future Stl. closer) anyone?

by DocNo on Jul 2, 2008 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think everyday players are our main concern for 2009. AAA is not going to provide up with anyone outside of Asdrubal for 2009 on the position player side.

Bullpens are chaotic by nature outside of a few elite relievers. We are certainly not going to get an elite reliever for CC because any team we would be trading him to would need their elite reliever for the penant run for which they are renting CC. Shapiro will continue on his path of just getting enough live arms to try to scrounge up some effectiveness.

This trade is a rare opportunity to fill multiple holes with possible core type guys. Shapiro will make it count by getting at least 2 everyday 2009 players.

by KevinV on Jul 2, 2008 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think you trade a Cy Young award winner for relief pitching. I think what they do is gonna depend on what they think about Barfield, Cabrera, Peralta. If they think they’re set up the middle, then I’d say they’ll go for help at 3b (getting help at 1b is a little easier, generally speaking) and then try to get a prospect or two in the deal. If they don’t see Barfield working out, then I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them try for middle infield help (again plus prospects). I also wouldn’t at all be surprised to see them try to make sure one of the prospects is a starter (someone who could start next year at AAA and provide depth), given Sowers’ and Byrd’s struggles, Miller’s injuries, etc.

by peter m on Jul 2, 2008 2:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree with this. Casey Blake should be able to net us a reliever. I want to point out, that established closers are probably overvalued by teams in regards to trading them away, there are some middle relievers/set up men, that are as good as these closers and only need to be given the chance.

by hans on Jul 2, 2008 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t want a reliever for Blake. What contender trades a reliever to a non-contender anyway? Makes no sense.

I want a solid but unspectacular position player guy. I want a new Max Ramirez, 2007 version.

by Jay on Jul 2, 2008 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well I guess that makes sense, I equate Blake to a reliever in value, and Max Ramirez was acquired for a reliever in Wickman, and then traded for a marginal outfielder in Lofton, Yeah a Max Ramirez type would be ideal for Blake. Although if they do intend on contending next year, I think they are going to want to go into the season with an established closer or established set up man taking a shot at the closers role. Not sure we have that on the team now (although I’d give Bentencourt a shot) or what the FA market will look like.

by hans on Jul 3, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just don’t see a team giving up a reliever of any value — and there aren’t many to begin with. I mean, if it’s a young, live-armed guy with at least one option left, then maybe.

by Jay on Jul 3, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And now we’ll get to see if anyone takes to role and runs with it since Joe Borowski has been DFA’d.

by hans on Jul 4, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Quick bullpen study of the first place Rays…

Percival – 3.54
Balfour – 1.08
Howell – 2.96
Wheeler – 1.88
Reyes – 4.02
Glover – 3.34
T. Miller – 3.92

Those are bullpen ERAs…

by Tribe Alive on Jul 2, 2008 2:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bullpen ERA’s aren’t very informative—but their bullpen is good.

by peter m on Jul 2, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I realize this but point taken…

by Tribe Alive on Jul 2, 2008 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is where the fractional ERA stat would help to determine bullpen effectiveness, but I guess inherited runners scored and WHIP are valuable enough.

I did a Google image search for "Andy Marte." It turned up zero results.

by emd2k3 on Jul 2, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/wheelda01.shtml

Dan Wheeler is a great study in bullpen volitility. He’s almost RIske-esque.

by Toxicadam on Jul 2, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He’s mentioned in an ESPN column by someone (forgot who) about guys who are performing way beyond expectations this year, I think.

by peter m on Jul 2, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bats. Bullpen arms can be found. True stud bats are tough to get a hold of.

by Bernie19Kosar on Jul 2, 2008 6:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This could meet most of my pressing needs in 2009.

by fleerdon on Jul 2, 2008 7:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

don't kill me

Trade Casey Blake and either Franklin Gutierrez or Ben Fransisco to Colorado for Garrett Atkins and Matt Holliday.

Keep Jamey Carroll.

Sign Huston Street.

I’m just dreaming by the way…

One of these days... bang, zoom, straight to the moon...

by mixmasterasia on Jul 4, 2008 4:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Keep your dreams to yourself then.

by supermarioelia on Jul 4, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You’re not so much “dreaming” as “on crack.”

by Jay on Jul 4, 2008 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Funny. Amy Winehouse suggested making the same deals.

I did a Google image search for "Andy Marte." It turned up zero results.

by emd2k3 on Jul 5, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, and she tried to punch out the guy who suggested she was out of her mind!

by peter m on Jul 5, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That’s the kind of deal that Baseball Mogul’s AI would let you get away with as long as you balanced the money.

by Toxicadam on Jul 5, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

by KevinV on Jul 7, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Matt Laporta jersey

by APV on Jul 7, 2008 2:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We got LaPorta, so no complaints on my end. I think this is the best we could have done. LaPorta is such a good guy and role model that he will be a great addition to the Cleveland community.

What is the impact of the trade on 2009 salaries? How much money will the Indians have to play with and what is the most likely target? A closer?

by ShawnK on Jul 8, 2008 10:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs