Why the season isn't quite dead but its close...
by jerseywahoo on Jul 22, 2008 12:31 AM EDT
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PrintI know it sounds like I watched the Major League series or The Natural one too many times, but we still have a chance. I now I sound insane, but the reason is the strength of the teams we're chasing. Seriously, do you really think the teams in the division are playing that great. What if the Tigers, White Sox, and Twins all play .500 baseball the rest of the year. The division winner could be 85-87 wins. Is that likely, no... not really. However, after the last two baseball years, is anything possible?? The 2007 Rockies and the collapse of the Mets are two recent examples. Now if the Mariners series is a confidence builder and the karma train blows into town, we could, maybe pull this off.
Before you vote me being committed to the looney bin, think about these thoughts on our competition. The Twins have the 2 M's offensively but will this young pitching staff hold up? Also Neshek being out for the year could catch up their bullpen soon enough. The tigers are old team and have a mediocre pitching staff at best. Do you think this rotation is one of the 25 best in baseball? Can Verlander, Rogers, and Robertson hold down the staff? Who are the other guys? The White Sox are the strongest of the bunch. But what is maximum innings Danks has thrown in any previous year? Will he start to tire? Couldn't the same thing be said for Floyd? Do Buehrle and Vasquez scare you? What if Quentin or Dye cools off?
All of these thoughts are meaningless unless we start playing some serious ball. As my last count, we need to play .667 ball the rest of the way to go 87-75. Plausible? no. Possible? yes as last year shows. What if the last couple of days is what Marte plays like the rest of the year. What if Carmona returns to 2007 form.
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The last couple days? Marte sat yesterday and went 0-for-5 the day before.
The bigger problem is that the White Sox, Tigers and Twins won’t all play under .500. The fact three teams are ahead of us — two of them by 10-plus games, all of them with better run differentials — is much more significant than our 11-game deficit.
OK reality check
Yeah Marte had an 0-5 Saturday, but he’s homered twice in the last 4 played games, batting 5 for 16. Yeah its 11 games as of tonight’s win. However, we do have 24 games remaining against the big 3. After watching tonights Twins game, they look like a team lucky to play .500 ball the rest of the year. The Tigers are a veteran team that lost 2 of their SPs for the season (Bonderman and Willis). That does leave the White Sox. The pale hose are 8-8 this month and Contreras is on the DL with the dreaded elbow tendinitis. Linebrink has an iffy shoulder. You lose those guys for most of the year and…. See 2007 Phillies and Rockies
1997 was a banner year
and it only came with a 86-75 record. If the White Sox and Tigers play .500 ball. They will be at 87 wins at best. Problem is, we have to 43 out of 64. Maybe Travis Hafner can be our Roy Hobbs. Dellucci is our Bump Bailey.
I’d say the chance of our playing .667 ball is something less than 10%.
The chance of any one of the three teams playing .500 or worse is, charitably, 50%. Therefore, the chance of all three doing it is charitably 12.5% (1/2 ^ 3 = 1/8). Of course, the chance goes down because they are all playing each other head-to-head, and somebody has to win those games.
Anyway, a little under 10% (times) a little over 10% ... you’re looking at roughly a 1% chance here.
mjschaefer: What are the chances of a team like this and the playoffs… ending up together?
Jay: Well, that’s pretty difficult to say.
mjschaefer: Hit me with it! I’ve come a long way to see Marte. The least you can do is level with me. What are our chances?
Jay: Not good.
mjschaefer: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
Jay: I’d say more like one out of a million.
[pause]
mjschaefer: So you’re telling me there’s a chance.
by FredOx on Jul 22, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
I’d rec this if it wasn’t already done.
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Jul 23, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I checked the other day, and our playoff odds have nearly DOUBLED over the past two games. I like ELO the best by the way. It tells me 0.9% chance. Let’s go with it.
by supermarioelia on Jul 22, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Out of the Blue is their best album. I like the whole “Concerto For a Rainy Day” on Side 3.
Free Andy Marte!
by woodsmeister on Jul 23, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
so were a few others as well .. Evil Woman, Calling America, Diary of Horace Grant, Roll Over Beethoven, Don’t Bring Me Down, Strange Magic, Confusion ….
I believe you mean Diary of Horace Wimp – Horace Grant was a power forward for the Chicago Bulls.
Free Andy Marte!
by woodsmeister on Jul 23, 2008 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
If you are looking for “big picture” moral victories, root for us to finish at .500. That would mean finishing the season 37-27. That seems more probable and would mean we finished the season 44-28, making us (probably) one of the hottest teams in baseball. That would be a great way to end the season.
WIth our current pitching staff and still lingering questions in the bullpen, it would be pretty amazing to come back and finish at .500.
Yeah, I would view this as a very successful second half if we finish at .500. The fact that we need to play 10 games over .500 the rest of the way just to do that is really sobering. But I appreciate the reckless optimism.
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Jul 22, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Make that 11 games over .500 now.
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Jul 23, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Are there historical precedents for this type of comeback? Sure – thirty years ago today, the Yankees sat in fourth place in the AL East, 12 games behind the Red Sox, and we all know how that turned out. But the Yanks were eight games above .500 going into July 22, and still had to win 70% of their remaining games and pray for a fade by the Red Sox, Brewers and Orioles. That same year, the Twins sat 11 games behind the Royals on 7/22 and finished in fourth, 19 games behind. The Padres were 12 games behind the Giants and finished in fourth, 11 games behind the Dodgers.
So, is it possible for the Indians to pass the Royals, Tigers, Twins and White Sox? Yes, but it’s extremely unlikely. And if Wedge starts managing for the postseason, we may not see some of the things it would be nice to see for 2009.
You certainly brought your “A” game today
"I think people should be allowed to do anything they want. We haven't tried that for a while. Maybe this time it'll work." -G. Carlin
Hell no! And it ain’t over now. ‘Cause when the goin’ gets tough… [thinks hard] the tough get goin’! Who’s with me? Let’s go! [runs out, alone; then returns] What the $%@! happened to the Tribe fans I used to know? Where’s the spirit? Where’s the guts, huh? “Ooh, we’re afraid to cheer with msjchaefer, we might get depressed.” Well just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I’m not gonna take this. The Sox, they’re a dead team! the Twins, dead! The Tigers….
by ShawnK on Jul 22, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Can we intitute a ban on references to this scene, please?
While I would usually enjoy it as much as the rest of you, the place I saw a parody of this scene done was on Over The Monster when the Sux were down 3 game to 1 to Your Cleveland Indians.
(...and we all know how that turned out.)
"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.
It is true … this one of the great comic lines in movie history … and it has been referenced to death. I mean, it’s just not funny anymore.
Also: at least six different lines from The Princess Bride.
You can take “inconceivable” but you can’t have “nothing in his pockets but knives and lint” or “why so serious”. Not yet.
My (other) favorite lines are “You rush a Miracle Man, you get rotten miracles”, “Have fun storming the castle” and “Yes, yes, you’re very smart; now shut up” but I’m not sure how to work them into a game thread.
“Have fun storming the castle!” — this line is for when someone is heading to the plate who is hopelessly overmatched, like when a guy inserted as a pinch-runner ends up coming to the plate with the game on the line two innings later.
“He’s only mostly dead.” — when the starter loads the bases loaded with no outs, but no runs have actually scored yet.
There must be another dozen lines that could get used.
WTH!!! Cox suspended
and maybe fired for inappropriate comments during and after Sunday’s Nationals game? What did he say? Bad way to end a tremendous legacy.
Yeah. I believe mine was also a quote from the movie. At the beginning of Blutowski’s speech the nerdy guy in green with glasses says this.
is that an apostrophe or quotation mark
by Gradyforpresident on Jul 22, 2008 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Thought I’d break a few rules of my own while I was at it.
by supermarioelia on Jul 22, 2008 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow jerseywahoo, this sure takes me back. You’re doin’ the full-on ‘60 Cleveland Indians fan, aren’t you. Yep, hope springs eternal, and it ain’t over until Mama Cass finishes her aria.
Someday we’ll hafta list the seven stages of the Cleveland baseball season. You know, irrational expectations, discouragement, rationalization, the search for meaning, adoration of the unworthy, acceptance of abject failure, and planning for the future. And that’s just May.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
by mauichuck on Jul 23, 2008 6:48 AM EDT reply actions 5 recs
May is overstating it – I have fond memories of many, many June Swoons.
Free Andy Marte!
by woodsmeister on Jul 23, 2008 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Remember 1988? 16-6 at the end of April, 31-19 at the end of May (in 2nd and only 2.5 GB). 6 GB at the end of June thanks to a 6 game losing streak; 10.5 GB at the end of July. It was almost better to get the swoon over early rather than be enticed by Swindell and Candiotti, Carter, Snyder and Ron Kittle. Even a 31-year-old Julio Franco. Plus 10% of the 2008 MLB managers.
The Seven Stages of Indian Fandom
1. Irrational Expectations
Every off season Indians fans peruse the roster. They figure out how each player is going to be healthy, each player is going to fall into the role which we all envision and even if something goes wrong we can go with plan B.
Example: Look at the year Victor had last year. If he does that again, we’ll role and even if he doesn’t Shoppach won’t have any problem coming in. He should be starting for every other team in baseball, right now.
2. Discouragement
As the glow and promise of Spring Training dwindle, every year Inidans fans make the trip back to the snow belt and wonder why things didn’t play out the way they were supposed to.
Example: We should be 8-2 right now instead of 5-5. Grady has 3 homeruns already. Our starters have gone into the 7th inning 8 times and everyone except Victor is healthy.
3. Rationalization
Cleveland isn’t made up of a bunch of wusses that can’t take a little hardship. They might remember past frustrations, but there’s got to be some reason for hope, right.
Example: If we would have gotten that runner home from 3rd with no outs in game 2, Betancourt not give up that homer in game 4, and if Marte wouldn’t have gotten picked off first before Grady hit that one out in game 7 we’d have taken all three of those games. If a few balls bounce our way, we’re having a different conversation. When things balance out, we should be in good shape. Just wait till Victor gets healthy.
4. The Search for Meaning
There has to be a reason things aren’t working out. Indians fans are never sure what it is, but they sure as heck know it’s one thing, and one thing exactly. And nothing else. But nobody ever knows which one thing it really is. One thing for sure, is that you won’t get any clues from Indians beat writers – or will you?
Example: Fan A might say "This is all Wedge’s fault. He refuses to play Marte, he keeps making mistakes with the bullpen and there is no way Blake should be batting as high as 8th in the batting order." Fan B is positive it’s the hitting coach. He’s the only common link to all the hitters, so what else could it be. Fan C thinks it’s because we failed to make a trade to acquire a guy tearing it up for another team. Imagine if we got him, none of the rest of this would happen.
5. Adoration of the Unworthy
Cleveland loves their guys. Sometimes their guys haven’t been here in years. Sometimes their guys are years from being here. But one thing is certain. Their guys are not currently in the every day line-up.
Example: Why the heck aren’t we playing Andy Marte? Nick Weglarz is going to be amazing in a few years. I miss Omar. What, Grady’s doing what? Who cares!
6. Acceptance of Abject Failure
Cleveland fans can only hold out hope for so long. They believe down to their core that someday the other shoe will drop. All their fears will be realized, and they will be sad once again this year.
Example: Screw it. I knew this was going to happen. This always happens. Remember the ALCS last year? Remember Edgar Renteria. We might as well just give up.
7. Planning for the Future
Time once again to peruse the Indians roster and figure out who we can pawn off to others for some players that can help next year. Time to take a look at other guys we already have. Next year, we should be able to bounce back if everything goes to plan. If not, we’ve always got plan B.
Example: Let’s trade everyone who is good and everyone who sucks and get a bunch of guys that are better. Let’s bring up everyone from the minors because they can’t be any worse. How long till Weglarz is ready? We should trade Casey Blake for Tim Lincecum. Then if Westbrook gets healthy, our starters will be amazing. That way Marte can play too. I miss Omar.
by Brick. on Jul 23, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 13 recs
The pessimists get even years. The optimists have the odd.
by jerseywahoo on Jul 23, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think this deserves to be in its own fanpost.
Free Andy Marte!
by woodsmeister on Jul 24, 2008 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Chuck deserves most of the credit on this one. It’s his list, which was perfect. I just rolled with it.
Yeah, this is crazy brilliant.
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on Jul 24, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
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