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Why the season isn't quite dead but its close...

I know it sounds like I watched the Major League series or The Natural one too many times, but we still have a chance.  I now I sound insane, but the reason is the strength of the teams we're chasing.  Seriously, do you really think the teams in the division are playing that great.  What if the Tigers, White Sox, and Twins all play .500 baseball the rest of the year.  The division winner could be 85-87 wins.  Is that likely, no... not really.  However, after the last two baseball years, is anything possible??  The 2007 Rockies and the collapse of the Mets are two recent examples.  Now if the Mariners series is a confidence builder and the karma train blows into town, we could, maybe pull this off. 

Before you vote me being committed to the looney bin, think about these thoughts on our competition.  The Twins have the 2 M's offensively but will this young pitching staff hold up?  Also Neshek being out for the year could catch up their bullpen soon enough.  The tigers are old team and have a mediocre pitching staff at best.  Do you think this rotation is one of the 25 best in baseball?  Can Verlander, Rogers, and Robertson hold down the staff?  Who are the other guys?  The White Sox are the strongest of the bunch.  But what is maximum innings Danks has thrown in any previous year?  Will he start to tire?  Couldn't the same thing be said for Floyd?  Do Buehrle and Vasquez scare you?   What if Quentin or Dye cools off?  

All of these thoughts are meaningless unless we start playing some serious ball.  As my last count, we need to play .667 ball the rest of the way to go 87-75.  Plausible? no.  Possible? yes as last year shows.  What if the last couple of days is what Marte plays like the rest of the year.  What if Carmona returns to 2007 form.   

 

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We’ve won a few games against a slumping team and a horrible team.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 22, 2008 12:52 AM EDT   0 recs

The last couple days? Marte sat yesterday and went 0-for-5 the day before.

The bigger problem is that the White Sox, Tigers and Twins won’t all play under .500. The fact three teams are ahead of us — two of them by 10-plus games, all of them with better run differentials — is much more significant than our 11-game deficit.

by Jay on Jul 22, 2008 1:11 AM EDT   0 recs

OK reality check

Yeah Marte had an 0-5 Saturday, but he’s homered twice in the last 4 played games, batting 5 for 16. Yeah its 11 games as of tonight’s win. However, we do have 24 games remaining against the big 3. After watching tonights Twins game, they look like a team lucky to play .500 ball the rest of the year. The Tigers are a veteran team that lost 2 of their SPs for the season (Bonderman and Willis). That does leave the White Sox. The pale hose are 8-8 this month and Contreras is on the DL with the dreaded elbow tendinitis. Linebrink has an iffy shoulder. You lose those guys for most of the year and…. See 2007 Phillies and Rockies

by jerseywahoo on Jul 22, 2008 1:40 AM EDT   0 recs

I don’t know if we’ve ever “officially” had this discussion, but does being a veteran team really give anyone an advantage over a young team?

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 22, 2008 9:22 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think you’re nuts, but I love it.

by still ill on Jul 22, 2008 2:34 AM EDT   0 recs

You’re only allowed to be this crazy during game threads.

by supermarioelia on Jul 22, 2008 8:36 AM EDT   0 recs

I feel happy! I feel happy!

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jul 22, 2008 9:29 AM EDT   0 recs

1997 was a banner year

and it only came with a 86-75 record. If the White Sox and Tigers play .500 ball. They will be at 87 wins at best. Problem is, we have to 43 out of 64. Maybe Travis Hafner can be our Roy Hobbs. Dellucci is our Bump Bailey.

by jerseywahoo on Jul 22, 2008 9:36 AM EDT   0 recs

I’d say the chance of our playing .667 ball is something less than 10%.

The chance of any one of the three teams playing .500 or worse is, charitably, 50%. Therefore, the chance of all three doing it is charitably 12.5% (1/2 ^ 3 = 1/8). Of course, the chance goes down because they are all playing each other head-to-head, and somebody has to win those games.

Anyway, a little under 10% (times) a little over 10% ... you’re looking at roughly a 1% chance here.

by Jay on Jul 22, 2008 1:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

So your telling me there’s a chance!

by mjschaefer on Jul 22, 2008 2:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Help me out here, I’m not that experienced in dealing with the mentally incompetent.

by elsandito on Jul 22, 2008 3:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’d rec this if it wasn’t already done.

"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter

by Denver Tribe Fan on Jul 23, 2008 12:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sandy … in case you didn’t figure it out, click here.

by Jay on Jul 23, 2008 12:01 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Awesome reference!

"I think people should be allowed to do anything they want. We haven't tried that for a while. Maybe this time it'll work." -G. Carlin

by RD74 on Jul 22, 2008 4:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That’s about what the PECOTA-adjusted projections on BP have.

by odradek on Jul 22, 2008 4:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I checked the other day, and our playoff odds have nearly DOUBLED over the past two games. I like ELO the best by the way. It tells me 0.9% chance. Let’s go with it.

by supermarioelia on Jul 22, 2008 4:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Mr. Blue Sky was pretty good

by hans on Jul 23, 2008 4:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Out of the Blue is their best album. I like the whole “Concerto For a Rainy Day” on Side 3.

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jul 23, 2008 6:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m much more fond of Jeff Lynde’s work with The Travelling Wilbury’s

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Jul 24, 2008 1:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

so were a few others as well .. Evil Woman, Calling America, Diary of Horace Grant, Roll Over Beethoven, Don’t Bring Me Down, Strange Magic, Confusion ….

by talonk on Jul 23, 2008 6:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I believe you mean Diary of Horace Wimp – Horace Grant was a power forward for the Chicago Bulls.

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jul 23, 2008 7:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No, the season is not dead, we still have 64 games left. Our playoff chances, those are dead, or if not dead, severely injured, requiring a blood transfusion, some organ transplants, and possibly multiple resuscitations.

by ShawnK on Jul 22, 2008 10:25 AM EDT   0 recs

If you are looking for “big picture” moral victories, root for us to finish at .500. That would mean finishing the season 37-27. That seems more probable and would mean we finished the season 44-28, making us (probably) one of the hottest teams in baseball. That would be a great way to end the season.

WIth our current pitching staff and still lingering questions in the bullpen, it would be pretty amazing to come back and finish at .500.

by Toxicadam on Jul 22, 2008 10:38 AM EDT   0 recs

Yeah, I would view this as a very successful second half if we finish at .500. The fact that we need to play 10 games over .500 the rest of the way just to do that is really sobering. But I appreciate the reckless optimism.

"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter

by Denver Tribe Fan on Jul 22, 2008 12:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Make that 11 games over .500 now.

"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter

by Denver Tribe Fan on Jul 23, 2008 12:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hey, this is baseball, and anything can happen.

All I wish for is that the Indians don’t embarrass themselves, and us, the rest of the year and inject some excitement into the remainder of the season. I’m sick of feeling depressed every morning when I look at the box scores.

by LeftyCatcher on Jul 22, 2008 11:39 AM EDT   0 recs

Are there historical precedents for this type of comeback? Sure – thirty years ago today, the Yankees sat in fourth place in the AL East, 12 games behind the Red Sox, and we all know how that turned out. But the Yanks were eight games above .500 going into July 22, and still had to win 70% of their remaining games and pray for a fade by the Red Sox, Brewers and Orioles. That same year, the Twins sat 11 games behind the Royals on 7/22 and finished in fourth, 19 games behind. The Padres were 12 games behind the Giants and finished in fourth, 11 games behind the Dodgers.

So, is it possible for the Indians to pass the Royals, Tigers, Twins and White Sox? Yes, but it’s extremely unlikely. And if Wedge starts managing for the postseason, we may not see some of the things it would be nice to see for 2009.

by FredOx on Jul 22, 2008 12:08 PM EDT   0 recs

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

by mjschaefer on Jul 22, 2008 1:53 PM EDT   0 recs

You certainly brought your “A” game today

"I think people should be allowed to do anything they want. We haven't tried that for a while. Maybe this time it'll work." -G. Carlin

by RD74 on Jul 22, 2008 4:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Shut up, he’s rolling…

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Jul 24, 2008 1:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hell no! And it ain’t over now. ‘Cause when the goin’ gets tough… [thinks hard] the tough get goin’! Who’s with me? Let’s go! [runs out, alone; then returns] What the $%@! happened to the Tribe fans I used to know? Where’s the spirit? Where’s the guts, huh? “Ooh, we’re afraid to cheer with msjchaefer, we might get depressed.” Well just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I’m not gonna take this. The Sox, they’re a dead team! the Twins, dead! The Tigers….

by ShawnK on Jul 22, 2008 6:24 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

...dead.

by mjschaefer on Jul 22, 2008 7:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Can we intitute a ban on references to this scene, please?

While I would usually enjoy it as much as the rest of you, the place I saw a parody of this scene done was on Over The Monster when the Sux were down 3 game to 1 to Your Cleveland Indians.

(...and we all know how that turned out.)

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Jul 24, 2008 1:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It is true … this one of the great comic lines in movie history … and it has been referenced to death. I mean, it’s just not funny anymore.

Also: at least six different lines from The Princess Bride.

by Jay on Jul 24, 2008 2:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Woah woah woah woah … let’s not put a kibosh on the Princess Bride lines just yet.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 24, 2008 3:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No, really … let’s. It’s done.

by Jay on Jul 24, 2008 3:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Better get it in the ground rules.

by mjschaefer on Jul 24, 2008 3:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You can take “inconceivable” but you can’t have “nothing in his pockets but knives and lint” or “why so serious”. Not yet.

by FredOx on Jul 24, 2008 3:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If anyone ever quoted anything non-obvious from that movie, this step wouldn’t be necessary.

by Jay on Jul 24, 2008 3:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

My (other) favorite lines are “You rush a Miracle Man, you get rotten miracles”, “Have fun storming the castle” and “Yes, yes, you’re very smart; now shut up” but I’m not sure how to work them into a game thread.

by FredOx on Jul 24, 2008 4:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

“Have fun storming the castle!” — this line is for when someone is heading to the plate who is hopelessly overmatched, like when a guy inserted as a pinch-runner ends up coming to the plate with the game on the line two innings later.

“He’s only mostly dead.” — when the starter loads the bases loaded with no outs, but no runs have actually scored yet.

There must be another dozen lines that could get used.

by Jay on Jul 24, 2008 8:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

This is turning into one of those charts every NFL coach has regarding when to go for two points.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 24, 2008 10:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Like the Angels game, when we all knew Mastny was going to give up that slam, he just hadn’t done it yet. Or this whole season.

by FredOx on Jul 25, 2008 12:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

My friends at the Andre the Giant fan club will not be pleased.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 24, 2008 3:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Well what the hell are we supposed to do? You morons!!!!

by jerseywahoo on Jul 22, 2008 6:30 PM EDT   0 recs

Easy there…I was just continuing the loose reference to “Animal House,” one of my favorite movies.

In respect to the Tribe’s season, it’s dead, and I’m hoping to finish a game above .500.

by ShawnK on Jul 22, 2008 6:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Forget it, he’s rollin.

by supermarioelia on Jul 22, 2008 7:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

WTH!!! Cox suspended

and maybe fired for inappropriate comments during and after Sunday’s Nationals game? What did he say? Bad way to end a tremendous legacy.

by jerseywahoo on Jul 22, 2008 6:34 PM EDT   0 recs

He was only suspended for one game. for going off on an umpire.

by FredOx on Jul 22, 2008 9:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah. I believe mine was also a quote from the movie. At the beginning of Blutowski’s speech the nerdy guy in green with glasses says this.

by jerseywahoo on Jul 22, 2008 6:49 PM EDT   0 recs

That nerdy guy was known as Stork to his friends.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Jul 24, 2008 1:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

REPLY

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 22, 2008 7:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

YOU”VE BROKEN EVERY RULE ON LGT

by supermarioelia on Jul 22, 2008 7:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

is that an apostrophe or quotation mark

by Gradyforpresident on Jul 22, 2008 8:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thought I’d break a few rules of my own while I was at it.

by supermarioelia on Jul 22, 2008 8:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yours are rules of grammar though, for shame.

Proud supporter of the Cleveland.

by fwembt on Jul 22, 2008 9:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

May is overstating it – I have fond memories of many, many June Swoons.

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jul 23, 2008 8:22 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Remember 1988? 16-6 at the end of April, 31-19 at the end of May (in 2nd and only 2.5 GB). 6 GB at the end of June thanks to a 6 game losing streak; 10.5 GB at the end of July. It was almost better to get the swoon over early rather than be enticed by Swindell and Candiotti, Carter, Snyder and Ron Kittle. Even a 31-year-old Julio Franco. Plus 10% of the 2008 MLB managers.

by FredOx on Jul 23, 2008 9:25 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah. I still have my framed autographed picture of Cory Snyder. Scouting report on Cory Snyder, don’t throw it near the plate, he’ll still swing at it.

by jerseywahoo on Jul 23, 2008 9:44 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What’s wrong with being blindly optomistic. Its worked for Hawk Harrelson.

by jerseywahoo on Jul 23, 2008 9:54 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You don’t want to be compared to the Hawk in any, way, shape or form.

by talonk on Jul 23, 2008 9:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Very nice. Could be expanded somewhat. Possibly co-write with Brick.

by Jay on Jul 23, 2008 10:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The pessimists get even years. The optimists have the odd.

by jerseywahoo on Jul 23, 2008 1:44 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

/raises coffee cup

by fleerdon on Jul 23, 2008 1:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks Brick!!

Resident LGT beer kinda sewer

by mauichuck on Jul 23, 2008 1:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You make me proud, Brick.

by Jay on Jul 23, 2008 3:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That’s the best thing I have read in quite some time.

Proud supporter of the Cleveland.

by fwembt on Jul 23, 2008 7:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Awesome, and it pretty much sums it all up for me.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jul 24, 2008 8:22 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think this deserves to be in its own fanpost.

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jul 24, 2008 8:34 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Chuck deserves most of the credit on this one. It’s his list, which was perfect. I just rolled with it.

by Brick. on Jul 24, 2008 10:09 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You’re too modest. I just planted the see is all.

Resident LGT beer kinda sewer

by mauichuck on Jul 24, 2008 12:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’d tell both of you to get a room, but Blake and Wedge are probably occupying it already.

In any event kudos to both of you – this should be on the front page ….

...until next season.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Jul 24, 2008 1:48 PM EDT to parent up