A Large Minors Rundown: 25-11
by afh4 on Jul 28, 2008 5:02 PM EDT
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The first in a two part series. I got excited after all the big moves and wanted to put together the system in my own eyes. In the second part we'll be looking at the other prospects as well as trying to figure out where the Indians' farm is in comparison to others.
Please realize that I'm not a professional and, as such, if you have an issue we can talk it out. Adam (APV) was a big help but he was too busy to correct me everywhere I was wrong; as such, the rankings are ultimately my fault.
The Best Case/Worst Case is supposed to be taken less than seriously, obviously.
On the Radar: Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chiz, Chris Jones, Reid Santos, Matt McBride, Josh Judy, Kyle Landis, Paolo Espino, Vinnie Pestano, Josh Tomlin, Steven Wright, Stephen Head, Zack Jackson, Randy Newsom, Jared Goedert. Michael Aubrey
Before you even ask, Brick, Goedert is too old and can't hit enough for 3B.
25. Ryan Miller: LHP 2.98 ERA/93.2 IP/55 BB/91 K; 12/14/1986 (A)
2008 BA Ranking: #21
Adam: Time constraints.
Andrew: One of the Indians' last ever draft and follow picks. Hopefully he's on the move soon but with so much pitching depth it's hard to get all these guys to the right levels.
Best Case/Worst Case: Ted Lily/Ryan Edell
Trajectory: Steady.
24. Rob Bryson: RHP 3.93 ERA/66.1 IP/26 BB/82 K; 12/11/1987 (A)
2008 BA Ranking: #11 in Milwaukee
Adam: Time constraints.
Andrew: He'd probably be considerably higher if we were scouts. His stuff is pretty impressive sounding-fastball that touches 95, 78-82 mph slider. Part of the reason he's this low is that there doesn't seem to be any indication he's going to be made back into a starter.
Best Case/Worst Case: Jonathan Broxton/Dallas Cawiezell
Trajectory: Going up
23. Ryan Morris: LHP 3.88 ERA/99.2 IP/45 BB/68 K; 1/10/1988 (A)
2008 BA Ranking: Unranked
Adam: Time constraints.
Andrew: Has really fallen apart in his 7 starts since the break, with a 6.89 ERA.
Best Case/Worst Case: CC Sabathia/Aubrey Huff the pitcher
Trajectory: Going up
22. Joey Mahalic: RHP 4.00 ERA/72.0 IP/22 BB/53 K; 11/28/1988 (A)
2008 BA Ranking: Not ranked.
Adam: Young and interesting.
Andrew: Is apparently inducing a lot of balls on the ground, with a 3.03 GO/AO.
Best Case/Worst Case: Brandon Webb/Brian Slocum
Trajectory: Going up
21. Chris Archer: RHP 3.98 ERA/83.2 IP/69 BB/74 K; 09/26/1988 (A)
2008 BA Ranking: Not ranked
Adam: Young and interesting.
Andrew: There are things to like and there are things to not like in that line.
Best Case/Worst Case: Tom Seaver/Sean Smith
Trajectory: Going up
20. Jeanmar Gomez: RHP 5.54 ERA/100.2 IP/42 BB/86 K; 02/10/1988 (A+)
2008 BA Ranking: Unranked
Adam: How many Jeanmars do you know?
Andrew: He's in the Carlos Rivero camp-the fact that he's able to do anything in A+ at his age is an accomplishment. His strikeout numbers are pretty good and he's a big boy-6'4". He'll always suffer by the comparison to Rondon and Lord Kelvin but, well, consider this: he's only a month older than Kelvin and the Indians chose to have Jeanmar start the year in A+ while Kelvin just got promoted. That probably means something.
Best Case/Worst Case: Ervin Santana/Scott Elarton
Trajectory: Steady
19. Trevor Crowe: OF .393/.479/.871 (AAA)
2008 BA Ranking: #14
Adam: Show it is more than BABIP and stay healthy in Buffalo.
Andrew: I've found a lot of different ways to attack Trevor Crowe as a prospect over the last two years or so and I don't think I need to repeat them. Suffice to say, I don't have a lot of confidence in Crowe's ability to hit or to stay healthy. He did hit a homerun in his second game in Buffalo, which is cool.
Alright, just one thing. The biggest problem with Crowe that goes unmentioned is his positional value. Crowe doesn't appear to have a future in CF (only 15 games there this year) and even if he reaches his absolute ceiling (~.800 OPS) it's going to be hard for him to stick as a corner outfielder. The Indians were right move him to 2B even though it blew up in their face.
.
Best Case/Worst Case: Shane Victorino in a corner/Chris Denorfia
Trajectory: Going up.
18. Carlos Rivero: SS .309/.351/.660; 05/20/1988 (A+)
2008 BA Ranking: #18
Adam: Young, but at some point he's got to put up good numbers too.
Andrew: A wise man once defined minor leaguer success in High A as succeeding at 21 and solid at 20. So, Rivero has next year to actually be good. His OPS is one of the worst in the league but he's also one of only 6 players in the league under 21. He's always been considered a highly projectable "athlete" but he's got to improve his plate discipline ASAP. His fielding doesn't look great by idiot stats and there have always been some rumblings that he might need to go to third.
Best Case/Worst Case: Jhonny Peralta/Jack Hannahan
Trajectory: Steady
17. Wyatt Toregas: C .351/.474/.825; 12/02/1982 (AA)
2008 BA Ranking: #24
Adam: If he can hit above AA...
Andrew: Is supposedly defensively ready to play in the majors right now with a plus arm and good game calling skills. Was forced into AAA this year without showing any ability to hit in AA as a 24 year old; answered that bell by showing he couldn't hit in AAA as a 25 year old. He and Gimenez have been hilarious mirror images of each other-they were basically swapped out for each other and obliged everyone by switching batting lines-both destroy AA and neither is doing much in AAA. Toregas is wrecking the Eastern League with a 1.159 OPS and 10 homers in 29 games. That's more homeruns than Toregas has ever hit in a full season. It's hard to explain away his AA performance with age because the power is unlike anything he's ever shown.
Best Case/Worst Case: Brian Schneider/Henry Blanco
Trajectory: Going up?
16. Chris Gimenez: C/1B/LF .440/.470/.910; 12/27/1982 (AAA)
2008 BA Ranking: Unranked.
Adam: Future Casey Blake? (with the ability to catch and better plate discipline)
Andrew: Absolutely torched AA this year to the tune of a 1.024 OPS. His problem is that he spent his age 22 and 23 seasons in Lake County which is not good. Has struggled to replicate his success in Buffalo but has also been good since the ASB; in an ultra small sample of 7 game he's OPSing 1.025. If he can get red hot again we can parlay him into Josh Barfield.
Best Case/Worst Case: Casey Blake/Mike Rabelo
Trajectory: Going up
15. Jordan Brown: 1B/DH .335/.407/.743; 12/18/1983 (AAA)
2008 BA Ranking: #7
Adam: Sigh...needs to regain plate discipline AND gain power.
Andrew: Is supposedly just now getting back to full strength after an offseason knee surgery. Whatever. A classic example of why you shouldn't get excited about guys who are too old for their league; won back to back MVP awards in 2006 and 2007 in A+ and AA but was older than most of his competition by a couple of years. On top of that he won both MVPs for hitting a good average and getting a bunch of RBI. Again, whatever. He's also getting killed by lefties which is going to make this professional hitter thing tough.
I would just be a jerk if I didn't mention that he's looked much, much better in the 10 games since the all star break, a break that he said allowed him to get back to full strength. Since then, he's at a .984 OPS with 9 walks. So, take heart, IndiansFan. Is very comparable to Ryan Garko, just promoted less aggressively.
Best Case/Worst Case: Sean Casey/Shelley Duncan
Trajectory: Going down
T-14. Josh Rodriguez: SS/2B .347/.376/.723; 12/18/1984 (AA)
2008 BA Ranking: #20
Adam: If he can stick at 2B or SS...
Andrew: Josh Rodriguez bores me, intensely. As far as I can tell he doesn't do anything particularly well except for stand somewhere near second base; that's his most marketable asset. He had 32 errors last year and he already has 17 this year in about half the number of games. Obviously errors are stupid but that's a lot of errors.
Best Case/Worst Case: Kelly Johnson/Joe Inglett
Trajectory: Steady
T-14. Chuck Lofgren: LHP 5.56 ERA/69.2 IP/43 BB/61 K; 01/29/1986 (AA)
2008 BA Ranking: #2
Adam: Here's the thing...Lofgren is still only 22. And while he's sucked this year, the scouting reports talk about it being something getting messed up in his delivery, which is correctable, and an associated lack of confidence, which would seem to be correctable as well. And then there were his back-to-back starts on May 1st (6IP,6H,1R,3BB,9K) and May 7th (7IP,4H,1R,2BB,7K) where he seemed to "get it". He's probably falling faster than any prospect we have, but he has actually given himself enough of a cushion, age wise, that I would think it's too early to give up on him. He might need an offseason to get it worked out but I think he has until midway 2009 before he falls completely off the horizon.
Andrew: It's sort of a relief that he's this terrible and healthy because it indicates some kind of problem that is ruining everything and can be fixed-whether that's mechanics or what. The upswing to this admittedly crackpot viewpoint is that if you fix that ruinous problem, you get old Chuck Lofgren back. He's not really supposed to succeed until he's 23, according to the PTM.
Best Case/Worst Case: Mark Buehrle/Jorge de la Rosa
Trajectory: Going down.
13. Tony Sipp: LHP 4.32 ERA/16.2 IP/8 BB/19 K; 07/12/1983 (AA)
2008 BA Ranking: #12
Adam: Reliever with sexy K rate.
Andrew: Formerly Jon Meloan. Getting shelled in Akron though who knows what that means. Will have a shot at the bullpen out of ST next year if his arm holds up. It's a success that he's throwing again, period.
Best Case/Worst Case: Brian Fuentes/Scott Sauerbeck
Trajectory: Going up
12. Scott Lewis: LHP 3.17 ERA/54.0 IP/6 BB/38 K; 09/26/1983 (AA)
2008 BA Ranking: #16
Adam: Fantastic command (+4:1 K:BB in minor league career). If healthy, might be the next in line behind Huff for an audition for the rotation.
Andrew: Lewis is good when he's healthy but he's not incredible. His control is great but his strikeouts are just so-so. He's sort of replicating his 2007, including level.
Best Case/Worst Case: Carlos Silva/Aaron Fultz
Trajectory: Steady
11. Jeff Stevens: RHP 3.23 ERA/55.2 IP/25 BB/75 K; 09/05/1983 (AAA)
2008 BA Ranking: #19
Adam: Reliever with sexy K numbers.
Andrew: Stevens is working hard to become something besides the PTBNL returned for Brandon Phillips. He's struggled a bit in Buffalo with run suppression but his strikeouts have actually gotten better (38 in 27 IP vs. 37 in 28.2 IP in Akron). He's off to Beijing to try to help the USA win a medal; next year he's a solid bet to win a job in the bullpen out of ST.
Best Case/Worst Case: Scot Shields/Chris Bootcheck
Trajectory: Going up
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Comments
Not to nitpick, but those numbers are hard to put in context because they don’t specify level. Do you have that data handy? Could I help you by generating it? Otherwise, it’s a great read.
I’ll try to add player links later tonight or tomorrow morning so that you can click and see each player’s whole profile
GFP humorously echoing my comment – totaling the third “level please” remark – I’m just saying that I didn’t mean it in a FREE LEVEL or HIRE LEVEL INDICATOR way.
I’m pretty sure Mike Pontius didn’t make the top 10, but he’s a guy that probably belongs somewhere in the top 30, having one of the best arms in the system and promoted to high-A earlier in the year (with mixed success to date) after outperforming fellow 20 yr old Bryson against low-A competition.
BTW, I read Bryson was prematurely removed from his last relief appearance due to arm pain. No details, just a mention of “elbow and shoulder”, which didn’t sound too good.
I have no idea how to evaluate minor league relievers. But what I generally care about isn’t age and level as much as I would with a starter or position player, but dominating K-numbers without atrocious BB and HR-rates AND the ability to maintain those numbers with advancement. If Pontius hadn’t blown up on his promotion to Kinston, I’d be more thrilled with him. Instead he’s a young reliever getting torched at high-A, but still with good K-rates. He’s a guy to keep track of, but struggling A-ball relievers aren’t something to get too excited about.
Leaving him off of the ‘on the radar’ is an oversight but he never really got close to the list for me. His performance at Kinston is pretty abysmal-waaaay too many walks and his arm isn’t regarded anywhere near the way Bryson’s is (the only A+ or A reliever on the list).
Hope Bryson is ok.
I’m just going off the fact that Pontius didn’t even get a mention in BA and Bryson got a #11 in a good system.
Obviously that’s a bit crude but I don’t have a whole lot else to go on-I know he throws hard but I’m not sure what to do with that. A lot of guys throw hard and aren’t any good.
true, but the Indians farm system doesn’t really have that many guys who can throw that hard in the system, and if the ability is there than at least there’s something to work with, vs. a guy like Sowers who has to be pretty near perfect in regards to maxing his performance near his ability.
I got to think that projecting minor league relief pitchers has got to be pretty damn difficult considering its so difficult to project major league relievers year to year.
Update on Bryson: “Right-handed reliever Rob Bryson was placed on the disabled list Tuesday with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Tests on the injured shoulder indicated partial tears of the labrum and rotator cuff.” from Lake County Press, no other details.
Yeah, that didn’t take long at all.
In happier news, BA (subsc only) did a writeup on Salome and Lucroy, the two Brewer catching prospects, and gave very high all around marks for Lucroy, who in the mind of many scouts has moved ahead of Salome in the rankings. ‘Course, this is news only if Lucroy’s on “da list”.
And hey, I hear Zach Jackson kicking ass in Buffalo! (hopeful sarcasm)
Links are useful, but current level would still be nice. I know a lot of the prospects, but for some of these guys, I couldn’t tell you whether they were in Kinston or Lake County.
I’ll also add that a number of those young guys “on the radar” might end up as big-risers once we seem them in full-season play. Chisenhall, for example, is presumably (or until he gets an extended chance to show otherwise) a top prospect. It’ll also be fun to see what they do with 18-year old Abner Abreu next year and his prodigious power numbers.
Nice work guys, the effort is much appreciated. Judging from this list, I think you guys got the right guys in the top ten. One player I think that’s being judged too harshly is Stephen Wright. Wright pitched great at Kinston before getting promoted to Akron. Upon arrival, he got lit up pretty good, but of late has shown signs of adjusting. In his last 3 starts: 16 IP 17 H 4 ER 2 BB 13 K. Wright’s 23, so he’s nobody to get too excited about, but I value him more than most of the pitchers toward the end of the list.
Thank you, gentlemen. There is a lot to digest here.
1. The Gimenez/Toregas trajectories are odd in that everyone says the big jump is from A+ to AA, not between AA and AAA. It will be interesting to see how they work Santana into the catching pipeline.
2. I’m starting to think that the right comp for Crowe might be Coco Crisp. A useful guy to have on your team, but probably not part of your core.
3. Re Steven Wright, I seem to recall that when he was drafted they talked about him as a prospective reliever because of his K rates at the U of Hawaii. That still might make some sense.
by ken from alexandria on Jul 28, 2008 8:37 PM EDT reply actions
Lord Kelvin knocked out in the first tonight for Kinston. Sigh.
by ken from alexandria on Jul 28, 2008 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually have 2 (2!) summer jobs. But they’re just officey things at my school and then at the Art Institute. So yeah, I did get that thrown up while sitting in an office.
No more lunch at Bennignan’s huh? What will they do with all the flair?
by ganatz on Jul 29, 2008 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Mahalic could be a guy who potentially moves up the rankings quickly. But not till he 1) performs better, and 2) gets closer to Cleveland
I think for a guy with his stuff and age, he’s performing very well. The strikeouts will come as he improves his changeup.
Do you think Mahalic is a lot better than a guy like Archer? I have trouble contextualizing the Lake County pitchers, having never seen them and only “heard” them pitch a couple fo times.
I like Archer’s K’s a lot but Mahlic has that groundball pitcher thing working.
Yeah I definitely do like Mahalic a lot better than Archer. Both have similar stuff as it stands but Mahalic has a lot more projection in him. I have more confidence in Mahalic upping his strikeouts as he ages than Archer’s control improving. Granted Archer has improved his walk rates but they are still way too high. When you factor in Mahalic’s groundball rates, I think he comes out as the clear victor.
Both have similar stuff as it stands but Mahalic has a lot more projection in him.
Just curious, why do you think that?
WHERE IS 1-10??
Andrew, what am I paying you for???
If you need me, I'll be senselessly rooting for Sizemore 40/40 for the remainder of 2008.
My God, those pitchers in the 20’s have horrendous peripherals. Do we really not have 25 prospects better than those guys?
I’m looking at Ryan Morris now. Why are we even talking about this guy? If he had 30 more strikeouts, he’d still have too many walks. And if he had 30 fewer walks, he still wouldn’t have anywhere near enough strikeouts! GROSS!!!!
There seems to be a lot of really high gb rates with these pitchers in Lake County. What do we know about gb rates translating as these pitchers rise through the minors? Is it the same as the rest of the peripherals or is there something in particular about the low minors that tends to create a disproportionate number of ground balls?
Hello Andrew and Adam,
You two did a nice job – well done!
A few points:
Regarding Crowe, I think the advantage the Indians do have is the fact they have an above-average offensive SS, an above-average offensive CF, and if Victor returns behind the plate (or even if Shoppach continues hitting at about a 20-25 HR pace), you have an above-average offensive C – that’s above-average production at 3 positions that are still not where you’d expect the offense to come from.
Therefore, if you have 1 or 2 “offensive” positions that aren’t prototypical of most lineups, I don’t think that would hurt you, especially if Crowe can get on-base at a high clip, steal bases, and cause havoc for the opposing pitcher and defense.
Besides, keep in mind who has manned LF out there the last few seasons – Jason Michaels and Dave Dellucci, neither of which were offensive powerhouses. Crisp himself was never considered an offensive powerhouse in his own right, but if Crowe comes close to what Crisp did for us, the offense will likely be fine.
And whereas Crisp may have been a better defender than Crowe in CF, Crowe should grade out at least above-average on the corners, since I’ve heard he’s passable in CF (mostly has trouble with range, which wouldn’t be a problem on the corners; his instincts and arm are fine or better).
Therefore, I don’t see the problem with having him in LF if he does his thing and helps this offense add more speed to it, something this lineup could use more of, not to mention more plate discipline, another of Crowe’s strong suits.
As for Brown, you mentioned it, but keep in mind that Brown, by most accounts, has not been healthy – I’m not going to dismiss him having above-average to outstanding seasons the last two seasons, the last of which was at age 23 at AA, and according to the PTM criteria:
“In Double-A: succeeding at age 23, solid at 22, or younger.”
Also, according to PTM:
“In Triple-A: succeeding at age 25, solid at 24, or younger.”
so Brown still has next year to prove that the last two years (which arguably were healthier than this year has been) were no fluke.
Granted, you’d like them younger at those levels, but 23 is not ancient for AA – recall that Kouzmanoff was older than that at AA (24), yet is turning out quite well for San Diego so far (though his BB/K ratio in 2008 is a bit of an eye-opener – 14 BB/89 K!), so don’t be too quick to dismiss Brown just yet.
I’d like to see him 100% healthy at AAA before judging whether he can or cannot help the Indians. And while he may not profile as the proto-typical power-hitting 1B, Mark Grace and Sean Casey were certainly not bad players in their own right, and neither profiled as (nor turned into) power-hitting 1B either.
Just my 2 cents.
Overall, nice job on the list – there’s a few names others have mentioned (such as Pontius, Landis, etc.) that could have been placed on the list, but the names you listed certainly seem to be in the discussion as well.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Besides, keep in mind who has manned LF out there the last few seasons – Jason Michaels and Dave Dellucci, neither of which were offensive powerhouses. Crisp himself was never considered an offensive powerhouse in his own right, but if Crowe comes close to what Crisp did for us, the offense will likely be fine.
I think we have to look back at the Dellucci and Michaels platoon as a failure, not something to hold up as an acceptable level of production out of the LF position. So if Crowe produces to their level (despite the advantages in CF, SS, and C, which shouldn’t have anything to do with what kind of production we should expect out of the position) than Crowe will be a failure.
Can you really seriously be saying that Crowe is a better prospect because we can just keep on doing what we’ve been doing — getting crappy production out of LF or RF? Even if that is true, we don’t need Crowe to be that guy for us — we have ten other guys who can be crappy in those positions. “If he can get on base at a high clip” — if there was good reason to be confident he can do that, then we wouldn’t be having this conversation. The whole point is that there’s no reason to think he can.
Brown was successful in Double-A last season — he got promoted — but he was certainly not “outstanding.” There’s nothing “outstanding” about a first baseman who slugs under .500, as Brown has done every season. We heard the knees-are-sapping-my-power excuse last season, but the knees and the power have gotten worse, not better. I can’t consider what he’s done at Buffalo solid, and even if it is due to injury, that doesn’t make him a better prospect.
I’m all for the three-way battle in Spring Training for the 1B platoon job — Garko vs. Aubrey vs. Brown — and I don’t care who wins, and I definitely don’t care who loses.
I agree with this. They’re going to have to take a serious look at free agency or possibly a trade to bring in a legit first baseman next season.
Plan A — acquire a new 1B who’s a legit hitter.
Plan B — set up a three-man, 90-60-50 split between Martinez, Shoppach and Aubrey/Brown.
Plan C — let Garko compete for the job.
Of course, this all also depends on whether the Indians think Hafner will really be healthy by March.
Where does LaPorta fit into the plans? I kinda figured him as plan A for 1B. And yes, I am talking about 2009.
I don’t see why they’d take him out of the outfield, and I doubt they have plans to have him start 2009 in Cleveland, not having ever seen Triple-A.
shapiro said as much during a booth interview the other day. said hodges and laporta are what he considers depth options if plan A doesn’t work out because of injury or sucky-suck.
If 2009 is supposed to be serious contention, I have to admit that Marte and Hodges are not a very impressive Plan A and B for 3B. Marte is too iffy, Hodges is pretty undercooked. I’m skeptical that they’ll leave it at that.
Am I wrong to be so excited about Mills at 3b? He’s had a nice year in Kinston. Where do you see him 2009-2010?
You are wrong to be excited about Mills at 3b, but not about Mills in general. Nobody really thought he would stick there, and he has barely played there this year, so I think its safe to say he has no future at third.
Actually, if any one of them — just one — gets 75% of the starts, then we’ll probably be in good shape.
If that’s because the one that gets the starts is productive, then you may be right. Then again, Garko’s gotten 74% of the starts in 2008, so that alone doesn’t prove anything. One presumes that 2009 won’t be so optionless due to injury, and one further presumes Aubrey and Brown will be readier than they are in 2008.
I think the point is that if Garko gets more than 75% of the starts again, presumably he’d have been doing good things to earn that many starts again after his disastrous ‘08. And if Brown or Aubrey get 75% or more, they must be doing something right to limit the other+Garko to 25% or less. I think.
by supermarioelia on Jul 30, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Just realized our first round draft pick didn’t even crack the top 25. More due to lack of info I guess, but still…
Another guy I’ve paid attention to is Bo Greenwell, Mike Greenwell’s son who we drafted out of high school last year (2007) in the sixth round. He’s 19 and playing down in the GCL, so there’s no reason to be excited about him. But I always liked his dad and since July he’s actually been tearing it up (.294/.400/.529) and has a nice 15:11 BB:K ratio in about 120 plate appearances.
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