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Trade Everyone! - The End

TRADE EVERYONE!
an epic survey in six parts
1 The Starters by Ryan
2 The Infield by Jay
3 Wait. What? by Andrew (afh4)
4 The Prospects by Adam (APV)
5 The Outfield + Pronk by Ryan
6 The End by Jay

So who's left, anyway?  Well, let's see what Jayson Stark is saying ...

With CC Sabathia and Blake now dealt away, the one player the Indians are now most actively marketing is Paul Byrd.

Okay ... duh.  Of course they're most actively marketing Byrd — he's the only guy left in his walk year, i.e., the only guy whose remaining contract is utterly pointless on a noncontender's roster.  But Ryan already talked about Byrd — don't you have any other info for us, Jayson?

Clubs that have spoken with them say they're willing to listen to talks on anybody on the roster and are "open to anything."

Mm, really?  Open to anything?  Why am I skeptical of this?


THE CATCHERS:
  Some interesting things have happened with catchers.  Victor Martinez went down last month, perhaps showing some signs of his impending thirtyness, or his aggressive use over the past few seasons, or both, or (in fairness) neither.  Kelly Shoppach stepped in and immediately started showing what we here and the front office have been saying for two years:  This guy is a big-league starting catcher, more than reasonably robust at the plate and outstanding behind it.  At the same time, we have the Yankees' starting catcher going down for the season, and the Red Sox starting catcher just plain sucking — and both teams are in the heat of a three-team fight for the AL East, and both teams are laden with exactly the knid of ready-for-the-majors, high-ceiling players we need.

Could one of these teams use a well-healed super-backup — or, dare we even ask, a new superstar starter?  If the Indians were really open for anything, could we even be looking at a Johanesque bidding war, you know, before that bidding war dried up into nothing?  It's a startling thought, mostly because it's not clear why it isn't happening.  Oh, sure, Victor has yet to come back from the DL, so in that sense it's not an issue.  But you have to wonder, just how far could Shapiro's PR-immune decision-making go?  Would he seriously have entertained the notion of Victor Martinez, among the very coriest of his core players, willfully shipped off to wear pinstripes?

If not Victor, why not Kelly?  Under contract for three more seasons, about to hit arbitration.  Oh, sure, the Indians may finally be on the verge of giving Shoppach a substantial share of starts behind the plate — recognizing perhaps belatedly that if Garko's upside is only 100 points of OPS higher, that's not a good reason to put him in the lineup over Shoppach (with Victor playing 1B).  We don't know how ready the club is to go in that direction, but if they're not, wouldn't it be kind of dumb not to sell high on Shoppach?


THE RELIEVERS:  It's a little strange to me that this topic has generated any significant debate, because there's one big, giant, obvious reason why we're not trading any of our relievers:  They suck.

Tempting as it is to leave it at that, I'll delve further.  Relievers are funny.  They're scarce, and yet nobody really wants to pay all that much for one except for Wayne Krivsky, and his ass got fired.  So when you've got one who's pretty good, or might be pretty good, and who isn't in a walk year, it's tough to part with him, because they're scarce, and because you wouldn't get all that much anyway.  And we already dumped all the ones who would have been free agents.

Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, they're special, or they seem like they could be special, or anyway they used to be special, or they sure used to look like they were special, and who the hell knows, anyway?  Is someone knocking down our door with some big offer for these guys?  No?  Well, then, we're not going to just give them away, are we?  And is there a king's ransom, or even a minor duke's ransom, waiting out there for Mastny or Mujica or Slocum?  Somehow I doubt it.

So that leaves Betancourt and Kobayashi.  Why anyone thinks we could get more than a bag of balls for Betancourt, I have no idea.  Kobayashi, maybe, but this is actually beside the point.  The last couple of seasons, Shapiro has tried to stockpile bullpen depth, and he's still at it, sneaking a young, live arm into each of this month's two major deals.  That's one kind of reliever he likes to stockpile.

The other type of bullpen acquisition he likes is a veteran with a history of  past late-inning success, perhaps with some recent difficulties driving down his market price, and yet someone for whom there's some reason to believe might just bounce back and be effective.  Who fits this exact profile, going into the 2009 season?  Betancourt and Kobayashi, that's who.  And what kind of contract does Shapiro like to sign with a reliever of this profile?  A reasonably small one-year deal with a club option for a second year.  And what's the contractual status of Betancourt and Kobayashi going into the 2009 season?  Each one has a reasonably small one-year guarantee for 2009 with a club option for 2010.

So you see, if Shapiro dealt either one of these guys, he'd just have to go out and find another guy just like him.  I personally am not at all eager to see the club sell low on Betancourt, nor do I think we have any depth to deal from in the bullpen in general.


SO WHAT, THEN:  Well ... not much.  We will get Byrd through revocable waivers and make a deal next month — though after his sterling start last night, maybe some team will decide to move aggressively on him and not risk a blocked waiver situation.  It shouldn't take much.  But as for "open to anything," I somehow doubt it, because the consistent thread across this whole series is that it's hard to imagine getting equal value out of anyone other than our walk-year free agents.  Consider:

  • We traded three months of C.C. Sabathia for six years of a blue-chip hitting prospect, plus two or three other good prospects.  How could we get equal value for Cliff Lee, who has almost five times as many starts left under his current contract as Sabathia?  Can we get 24 years of a blue-chip prospect, plus 10 to 12 other good prospects?  Of course not.
  • We traded two months of Casey Blake for six-years of another terrific prospect — a guy who instantly becomes not only our top catcher prospect, but arguably also our best 3B prospect and our best skill-position prospect overall — plus another guy with possible value.  Blake is a solid contributor, not a star, and if he's worth all that, what is a guy like Peralta worth, under contract through 2011?
  • And in the extreme example, Grady Sizemore, who would today be projected as high as $100 million in on-field value (per the "MORP" valuation system) through the end of his current contract in 2012, added to his marginal contract value of around $75 million.  Even if we compelled a team to take Hafner and his contract along with Sizemore and his, how in the world is any team supposed to come up with another $140 million in real value to send back to us, while sending only prospects?

It's tempting to blame the lack of more significant, team-shaping moves on a lack of vision and creativity on the part of our front office — if they're so damned smart, this line of thinking goes, then why can't they pull off those cool, out-of-the-box, seismic-shift trades like Billy Beane does?  That topic bears more exploration, but truthfully it belongs in the offseason, not at the trade deadline.  In-season, by far the best trade value lies in moving walk-year guys to contending teams for top-tier minor leaguers — you're trading a guy out of a low-leverage situation into a high-leverage situation, not unlike trading an out-of-position CF to another team where he actually can play CF.

Just as a relief ace is most valuable when pitching in the most high-leverage innings, the best players are most valuable in the most high-leverage games, i.e., in a tight pennant race.  On the flip side, games beyond the current season are just as high-leverage for the Indians as they are for the current season's contenders, so for players who aren't in their walk years, there's a much smaller value difference to be leveraged.  It is hard to overestimate the value of an established major leaguer who is still well within his peak years and under a team-friendly contract — a description that fits almost all of the Indians' most desirable remaining players.  That type of player doesn't get traded a whole lot, because it's hard to trade guys like that except for other guys like that — and you're not going to get one of those players when your trading partner is in a pennant race.

So this ultimately becomes a topic for the offseason — how much reshaping does this team need to do for 2009, and does this front office have the creativity to do it?  Having assembled a club chock full of "the right guys," Shapiro has rarely shown the emotional detachment to move one of those guys when he didn't have to, with the notable exception of Coco Crisp.  And by "when he didn't have to," I mean when the player wasn't in his walk year.  Moving a guy in his walk year doesn't take fortitude, it just takes not being an idiot.  (Yes, I know — cue the long list of idiots, led by the Orioles.)

So we don't really know how capable Shapiro is of moving one of his guys — a guy like Martinez, Peralta or Lee — and it seems unlikely that he seriously considered moving Casey Blake last offseason, or Sabathia for that matter.  After all, it's one thing to be "listening to everyone" and "open to anything" — which may be merely an Intellectually Correct posture — but it's quite another thing to actually move significant players when it isn't the obvious call.

Again, that question is more for the offseason.  For the moment, we don't get to trade everyone, as satisfying a thought as that might be.  We only get to trade Paul Byrd.

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Comments

Display:

But Jay, I WANT to trade Ryan Garko.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jul 29, 2008 10:02 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well don’t let me stop you.

by Jay on Jul 29, 2008 10:03 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I just need my mid-season prediction to come true.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jul 29, 2008 11:10 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

At the moment, Ryan Garko’s most valuable asset is his remaining option.

by fleerdon on Jul 29, 2008 11:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I wonder if we can sell his rights to Warner Bros. for a new Flintstones movie?

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Jul 29, 2008 12:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

I’m firmly against anything that may grant Rosie O’Donnel more employment.

by Toxicadam on Jul 29, 2008 12:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if I am not mistaken, those have already been sold to Shoppach

by DocNo on Jul 29, 2008 7:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe this is why Garko hasn’t been optioned yet…they’re saving it for next year?

by supermarioelia on Jul 29, 2008 12:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I actually do think that’s the reason. They won’t hesitate to acquire a big-league starter for 1B in the offseason, and if they don’t, they’re going to make him compete with Aubrey and Brown for the job in Spring Training.

by Jay on Jul 29, 2008 12:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

will he be in that service time rules for a send-down window – not the “he has to approve it” one, but the “2007 cliff lee has to clear waivers one”?

by Brick. on Jul 29, 2008 2:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know I have said this before, but I would not be shocked if we traded Vic away in the off-season. His bat would be worth a lot on the market. Maybe we could finally get a closer back in the trade and a solid upside bat/starting pitcher.

His club friendly contract for 09 and option for 10 would really net us something pretty I think.

Would Shapiro “want” to trade one of his guys? Probably not, but if the price was right, I think he’d do it.

by talonk on Jul 29, 2008 10:40 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A catcher trade wouldn’t be surprising simply because it is a position most teams have a need for and we have an abundance at. Furthermore, there a number of different ways we could depart with one catcher and still have the position well covered. Toregas was added to the 40-man because Cleveland recognized he could be a backup catcher now (and would likely get taken in the Rule 5). Gimenez has been converted to catcher to give us another decent bat option at the position. I have no idea if the Indians actually will trade a catcher this off-season, but it would not surprise me if they did.

by APV on Jul 29, 2008 10:44 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A Victor trade wouldn’t happen in the off-season, more likely if the team tanks again (which means that certain position players have continued to under-perform) and we have to do some midseason dealing to fill holes.

I think Shapiro did an admirable job in stocking up for the next few years. There was a noticeable void in the upper levels of our farm system after 2007. Maybe we will look at 2008 as a blessing in disguise in the future.

With La Porta and Crowe (assuming he keeps doing well) in the system, I think something has to be done with Choo, Gootz and Francisco. The problem is that almost everyone in the league has players similar in stats, age and expectations in the outfield. So, if something happens .. it will probably be with one of those three.

by Toxicadam on Jul 29, 2008 10:49 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don’t think Crowe is really a part of that equation. We can’t count on him as any kind of replacement for any of those three guys, as mediocre as they are.

by afh4 on Jul 29, 2008 10:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

”...certain position players have continued to under-perform.”

In that event, would they still be underperforming? Would that be their true level? Maybe Garko, Gutierrez, et al. aren’t underperforming but are performing to their true levels.

by odradek on Jul 30, 2008 5:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don’t know how I’d feel about shipping Kelly or Victor to Boston or New York. Both of these teams need a catcher and have talent that we’d likely be interested in, but the Indians appear set to (attempt to) contend in 2009, and will likely be battling against the Sox and Yanks for a wildcard spot or (hopefully) in October.

That said, it’s never a good idea to rule out any trading partners, is it?

by Peter Bendix on Jul 29, 2008 10:49 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Would the Yankees definitely even want Shoppach over Molina? It’s not like that team is lacking hitting and as far as throwing out base runners goes, Molina has been light years better than Shoppach so far.

by Joe. on Jul 29, 2008 11:14 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The thought of trading Cliff Lee has crossed my mind. This year is just such an absurd abberration for him that I feel like the team is going to kick themselvesfor not trading him if/when he regresses to old Cliffy next year.

by Joe. on Jul 29, 2008 11:12 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

shhhh, don’t wake chuck ;)

by talonk on Jul 29, 2008 11:24 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Absurd aberration? That’s going too far. It’s a huge improvement over 2007 (when he was injured), but it’s not as if he never had good seasons before:

2004 8.09 K/9, 4.07 BB/9, 80 ERA+, 1.503 WHIP
2005 6.37 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 111 ERA+, 1.218 WHIP
2006 5.78 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 103 ERA+, 1.405 WHIP
2007 6.10 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, 73 ERA+, 1.521 WHIP
2008 7.62 K/9, 1.37 BB/9, 186 ERA+, 1.031 WHIP

Cliff Lee in 2009 may not look like Cliff Lee in 2008, but even if he regresses to the mean of 2004-2008 (leaving out 2007), he’d be in the top 20 in the AL in WHIP, top 15 in K/9, top 20 in BB/9. And there’s no particular reason to expect him to regress to that mean.

by FredOx on Jul 29, 2008 11:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The fact that he has never been close to this good before in his entire career? All those numbers do is prove my point for me. The guy has peripherally and otherwise been the best pitcher in baseball this year. So yea, it’s an absurd aberration.

by Joe. on Jul 29, 2008 1:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think the two issues, should we trade Lee and is Lee really this good, are pretty unrelated. With regards to the first, I don’t think the Indians are in a position to trade any major-league or near major-league starting pitching without getting an equivalent major-league ready pitcher in return. Without Westbrook, losing CC and likely Byrd, and with questions about all our young guys, we just can’t trade Lee right now. With regards to the second point, I don’t know if anyone has done research on pitchers who suddenly improve their control, which seems to be driving a lot of Lee’s success, and the sustainability of that improvement.

by APV on Jul 29, 2008 1:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cliff’s success can be tied to three things:

1) his walk rate is down
2) his strikeout rate is up
3) he’s become a groundball pitcher. after having a GB/FB ratio between .71 and .79 every year of his career, Cliff’s at 1.50 this year.

it’s like jake westbrook, but with strikeout ability. you can’t score tons of runs when you’re striking out one an inning AND when the only rally you can stage is a couple of singles.

by xrickx on Jul 29, 2008 9:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That’s the Dave Duncan Plan.

by FredOx on Jul 29, 2008 9:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

we should have traded laffey for atkins when it was on the table.

by Brick. on Jul 29, 2008 11:52 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In all games not played in Coors Field, Garret Atkins is hitting .268/.336/.434 in his career.

Them’s Casey Blake-like numbers.

by Peter Bendix on Jul 29, 2008 11:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pretty sure Brick was joking.

by Jay on Jul 29, 2008 12:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah, but the reason a joke like that is fun is in case someone takes the bait. the other route to go was to point out how we should have sold high on laffey, look at him now. either way, we got a handy link to a classic thread

by Brick. on Jul 29, 2008 2:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I love the Krivsky line, and I agree about our pen… but I’d certainly listen on Kobayashi. I don’t see him as all that special.

Dear Mr. Sabean, I hear you have a reputation of being stupid. Want to deal Lincecum or Cain? You can pick THREE of these 4 players for either: Borowski, Dellucci, Blake, Byrd.

by westbrook on Jul 29, 2008 12:34 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It’s not that they aren’t listening on Kobayashi. They are, I promise. It’s just that he’s valuable enough to next year’s team that someone would have to overpay the Indians for the trouble of replacing him in the offseason.

Really, his contract makes him special, not so much his on-field performance.

by NickFantana on Jul 29, 2008 12:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The thing that I take away from this is how strong the argument is for trading Shoppach. Given the need for catchers out there, and also that we’d be selling high, it’s conceivable we’ll get an offer we can’t refuse.

by ken from alexandria on Jul 29, 2008 12:59 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I can definitely see Gimenez/Toregas as the backup next year with a Fasano/Laker type at Buffalo in case of an injury to Victor. What we need to hope for is Mujica to be lights out for the next two months and then try to steal something for him this winter.

by riter on Jul 29, 2008 1:05 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

so we want Mujica to be good so we can trade him? How about he becomes good and sets up for Meloan in 09?

Dear Mr. Sabean, I hear you have a reputation of being stupid. Want to deal Lincecum or Cain? You can pick THREE of these 4 players for either: Borowski, Dellucci, Blake, Byrd.

by westbrook on Jul 29, 2008 4:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dellucci

Can a major leaguer be sold directly to a team in the Japanese league?

by LAIndianfan on Jul 29, 2008 1:08 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nice work as always, Jay. And kudos for earning the shoutout from THT: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/tribe-trade-outlook/

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Jul 29, 2008 1:27 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree. Great article, Jay!

I wasn’t sure if I was reading an analysis of MLB trades or a treatise on arbitrage, but you nailed it either way.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Jul 29, 2008 2:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My ignorant and bold predictions:

They will pursue CC in the off-season, unsuccessfully.
They will pursue the beard in the off-season, I hope unsuccessfully.
They will pursue more bullpen help. They will sign nothing that appears to be significant.
They will pursue a 1st baseman, but will not give away much to do so. Vic is at 1st or DH next year, or possibly gone by this time next year.
Fasano will not be here. Gimenes/Toregas will back up Kelly.
They will pursue a 3rd baseman with vigor. They will be unsuccessful.
They will pursue a corner outfielder. They will land someone that excites the fanbase, and by the fanbase I mean me, specifically.
Core players (read mostly-untouchable): Sizemore, Lee, Westbrook, Carmona, Shoppach. Everyone else, keep a bag packed for the next 367 days.
By off-season I mean from now until 7/31/2009

proverbial "moron in a hurry"

by 94neverout on Jul 29, 2008 1:31 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

feeling pretty sunny this afternoon, huh?

by APV on Jul 29, 2008 1:38 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Me? No, just ingnorant and bold.

proverbial "moron in a hurry"

by 94neverout on Jul 29, 2008 1:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One of the most tradeable guys we have is Jhonny Peralta. Alot of teams need a shortstop and one with power (Boston, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Cards, Cubs, Angels, maybe the Rays). Most of those teams have a very good farm system, so Peralta can definately net us some impressive players.

However, those favorable things I’ve mentioned are exactly the reason why he’s still here. Granted his OBP sucks this year and his defense is iffy, he does give you about an .800 OPS which is very good. He’s also very cheap and still young. If we were to trade him, we’d need a 3rd baseman or 2nd baseman in return. AssCab would move to short and to compensate for his lack of power it’d be nice to get a guy that you know will slug. I think it’s certainly worth it though to listen to offers for Jhonny now and in the offseason.

by JP_Frost on Jul 29, 2008 2:22 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

AssCab?

Why Ass? Do you think he’s an ass?

by Jay on Jul 29, 2008 3:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah, poor choice of words there.

AstroCab, Mr. Tripleplay on my own?

by JP_Frost on Jul 29, 2008 3:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He just picked his most prominent physical feature and went from there.

Proud supporter of the Cleveland.

by fwembt on Jul 30, 2008 10:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don’t think they really need him, but Longoria and Peralta would be one hell of a power combo on that side of the diamond.

Dear Mr. Sabean, I hear you have a reputation of being stupid. Want to deal Lincecum or Cain? You can pick THREE of these 4 players for either: Borowski, Dellucci, Blake, Byrd.

by westbrook on Jul 29, 2008 4:59 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’m not in favor of moving Peralta in a trade or even from short. Asdrubal could be the next Tony Pena Jr.

by mjschaefer on Jul 29, 2008 2:56 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I didn’t know Asdrubal could pitch.

by FredOx on Jul 29, 2008 3:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

http://www.instantrimshot.com/

If you need me, I'll be senselessly rooting for Sizemore 40/40 for the remainder of 2008.

by gte619n on Jul 29, 2008 3:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

FWIW, Tony Pena Jr’s career minor league line is .252/.285/.332 (and he’s somehow managed to get caught stealing 40% of the time he tries to steal). He’s also been old for his league at every stop.

Asdrubal Cabrera’s career minor league line is .288/.350/.421, despite being very, very young for his level of most of the time.

by Peter Bendix on Jul 29, 2008 3:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah its a rough comparison and not at all accurate but I’m one of the few on the sight who don’t see Asdrubal as a sure thing.

by mjschaefer on Jul 29, 2008 4:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I do not think that’s true. I think a lot of people are down on Astro, in the sense that they’re hopeful he’ll just get to replacement level offensively.

by afh4 on Jul 29, 2008 4:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

First I can’t believe I put sight instead of site, but I can recall people who thought trading Cabrera was nuts. Wasn’t he a big part of a potential Haren deal?

by mjschaefer on Jul 29, 2008 4:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think you would be right if you were talking about March 2008. A lot of people’s opinions are changing.

by afh4 on Jul 29, 2008 4:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

mine still isn’t. i’m not ready to give up on him any more than i think fausto’s contract was a mistake. yet.

by Brick. on Jul 29, 2008 4:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fausto’s contract was not a mistake

by Roger Dorn on Jul 29, 2008 6:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Angel Berroa, maybe.

by odradek on Jul 30, 2008 5:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Are we really going to contend next year?
Let’s look at our starters. Cliff and Fausto are the two guys I feel really confident about. Westbrook will be out for most of the year, and Sowers hasn’t resolved his issues. Laffey has been good, but are people expecting a full year of decent pitching from him?
Bat-wise we will certainly be better if we have a healthy Victor, but I have absolutely zero-confidence in Hafner to return to his earlier form. So I think we need to net in the offseason at least one good hitter and one good starter. Or am I way off base?

Words do not do justice to my hatred for Boston sports teams.

by FaustosSinkingFastball on Jul 29, 2008 5:43 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A lot depends on what happens over the next two months. There are quite a few young players who could play key roles in 2009. If, at the end of 2008, it appears they’re not likely to be able to produce in 2009, then we’ll have to make major changes, possibly even retrench for a year.

Most significant make-or-break guys: Sowers, Barfield, Marte, Francisco and Choo.

Also: Laffey, Carmona, Garko and Cabrera. Less significant only because I think we have a better fix on what they can and can’t do for us.

by Jay on Jul 29, 2008 6:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Shoppach should have been on the second list.

by Jay on Jul 29, 2008 6:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would add Gutz to that first list.

The Shin-Soo Choo of LGT.

by Buckeye Brad on Jul 29, 2008 9:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I meant to put him on the second list.

I don’t think he belongs on the first list, because I think there’s reasonable evidence that he’s both valuable as a fourth outfielder and not reliably good enough to be an everyday player. You know, he’s coming up on 500 career PA just against RHP, and all he’s got to show for it is a 653 OPS — just for comparison, Casey Blake’s career OPS vs RHP is 765, Peralta’s is 749.

This extends down to the minors, too. His last full year in Buffalo, he had 740 vs RHP and 996 vs LHP, not unlike what he did in the majors last season. Career 796 in Double-A, mostly at ages 21-22, career 797 in Triple-A, mostly at age 23. He’s got a career 691 in the majors now, and while he probably can be a little better, it’s far from certain, and he’s unlikely to be that much better.

by Jay on Jul 29, 2008 10:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Do we think that a Gutz-Choo platoon is sustainable at least into next year? I think using Gutz against righties is pretty much a lost cause, but against lefties in his major league career he’s still sniffing an 800 OPS. Choo’s hit righties well so far with an 871 OPS (114 AB), but his 512 OPS against lefties doesn’t really say much in 25 AB.

And how real is this BenFran “reverse split” again? I know we said last year that it was more of a neutral split, and that it was a SSS against lefties, but do his numbers this year finally give some support to a Ben-Gutz platoon if Choo can manage to hold his own against lefties the rest of this year?

by supermarioelia on Jul 30, 2008 10:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’m still skeptical about the reverse-split holding up long term, but the main problem is that he simply doesn’t hit RHP well enough to be the “left side” of a platoon.

by Jay on Jul 30, 2008 12:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So you still have hope for Francisco? By having him on the first list you suggest the jury is still out, and that he might be a real player. The other four players seem obvious, but haven’t we already seen what BF can or cannot do for the Indians?

by odradek on Jul 30, 2008 5:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Might be a real player in the sense that he might be a solid-average guy at his peak, which probably is the next 3-4 seasons. It’s a big plus to have a guy like that on the roster at minimum salary. It’s what Garko was supposed to be.

by Jay on Jul 31, 2008 5:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK, I see what you’re saying. I was thinking we still need to see if he can be everyday outfielder, but looking at your stats you’re probably right that he’ll never be one. We’d like to see him “break out” and show the potential we all know he has, and I guess that why I was thinking about him on the first list, but that may never happen. He’s probably exactly what we’re seeing now—a valuable fourth OF and not a reliable starter.

The Shin-Soo Choo of LGT.

by Buckeye Brad on Jul 30, 2008 10:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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