Don’t you think GMs look past current performance with someone like Betancourt? Last year the guy was perhaps the best reliever in the American League. We wouldn’t be selling low on him. If he’s healthy he’s a valuable pitcher who would make a difference in a pennant race.

sorry, that wasn’t clear. What I meant was that Hardy now is like what Peralta was 2 or 3 years ago. Except that Peralta was 22 when he had his breakout season in 05, while Hardy was 24 in his breakout season last year. Also, they have the same strengths and weaknesses.

Hello cheech99,

One report I read (don’t remember if it was that blog or if it was someone like Rosenthal) who suggested that Hardy’s defense at SS has really deteriorated; combine that with the fact we’d only have him for 2 years, and I would be a bit surprised we’d take Hardy in the deal.

That same report also suggested that Milwaukee may be a bit more desperate than most teams because Sheets is a FA after this year and there are some disagreements regarding themselves and Prince Fielder, who is represented by Scott Boras – there is concern he won’t sign a long-term deal after they didn’t sign him to a new long-term contract after his great season last year.

In other words, Milwaukee might think this season is their best chance to win it all, being that there may be some changes (not a total overhaul, mind you, but still some considerable changes) after this season. Therefore, they may be willing to pay a higher price to get Sabathia, especially since they have a deep farm system (especially at the AA level) and the fact they’d get four high picks (two each for Sheets and Sabathia). Plus, if Fielder would be traded (I’m not totally sure that would happen, but I suppose it’s possible, especially if Gamel is moved to 1B or LaPorta remains with them), they would get a nice package of talent in return there as well, so I think it’s a realistic possibility they’d be willing to overpay a bit for Sabathia (i.e. 2 of the 3 guys mentioned of Escobar, LaPorta, and Gamel).

While Milwaukee is not in the same situation as Montreal was when we made the Colon trade with them back in 2002, Milwaukee is at a bit of a cross-roads in the sense that their ace (Sheets) will likely be gone after this season, and they don’t seem to be on great terms with their best hitter (Fielder) either. Therefore, I wouldn’t put it past them to pay a little more for Sabathia and go for it all in 2008, especially since they haven’t been to the postseason since 1982 (26 years!)

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Hello Jay,

Yes, I think I was thinking more of the start of the 2007 season, though I think a few publications were still considering Miller and Lofgren our top two pitching prospects and overlooking Laffey to start the 2008 season. Plus, I wasn’t sure if Laffey was still eligible to be ranked, but as I mention below, I guess he was still eligible.

I know I was disappointed in Lofgren’s performance in 2007 and was impressed with Laffey’s, so if I was doing writeups to begin the season, I would have put Laffey ahead of Lofgren. Though, was Laffey still eligible to be ranked going into the 2008 season? I see he had 49.1 IP, so I think he was still eligible as I think the rookie cutoff is 50.0 IP, correct?

Certainly though, Lofgren’s ranking has dropped in my book, as did his ceiling a few years ago, from a possible #1-#2 pitcher to more of a #3 with a chance to be a #2 if he can put it all together (which I’m having my doubts on at this point – too erratic with his command and not being able to go deep into games because he can’t finish hitters off easily).

I also agree about Sowers – his ability to adapt and stick at the ML level will make a big difference in our prospects for 2009. That’s probably why I’d like to get back a pitcher for CC if possible – that way, you’d have that prospect (McDonald from the Dodgers or whoever it is) and Huff going into 2009 to count on along with Sowers, since it’s likely Byrd won’t be back in 2009 and Westbrook won’t be ready to pitch at all until the second half, and not be at full strength until the start of the 2010 season.

Without that second pitching prospect, not only do you have to rely on Sowers, but you also have to hope you get contributions from Miller and/or Lofgren. Unless you go with another prospect like Frank Herrmann, J.D. Martin, Scott Lewis, or have a FA pitcher filling in like Jason Johnson (ugh!). That’s why I wouldn’t mind the LA deal if it’s actually a proposal (not sure if it is or not) as we’d get back a pretty solid pitching prospect as well, though I can understand why many are enthralled with LaPorta, and he would be a pretty solid acquisition for a 2-3 month rental.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Hello GFP,

I think they might be willing to if Shapiro and MLB were willing to offer a 72-hour window for a contract extension, but most reports I’ve heard suggest that Shapiro is not willing to offer that window, so I don’t think the Dodgers would be willing to pay any more than the Brewers would, and possibly less than the Brewers would, due to the fact that Sheets will likely leave after this season and the fact that Fielder may not sign with them long-term. That’s why I’m thinking the Brewers may be willing to pay that higher-than-expected price – they know this season is likely the last season they have with their current group (certainly with Sheets, and possibly with Fielder as well). Add to that that they missed the postseason last season when they were pretty close to making it and the fact that they haven’t been to the postseason since 1982, and I think that is why Shapiro is trying to get as much from them as he can.

Combine that with the Dodgers’ interest in CC, and I’d think that it may be possible for Shapiro to get LaPorta/Gamel (that’s either/or), Escobar, and Green. After all, I don’t think those other options are comparable to CC (Maddux isn’t the pitcher he once was, even with NL lineups, Wolf has been a bit erratic in some of his starts, and Burnett is often erratic in several of his starts, so while there are other options for the Brewers to consider, I think all three are at least two notches below CC in terms of the kind of pitcher they’d get. Maddux and Wolf aren’t frontline starters, and Burnett is far less consistent and reliable than CC is, even if he has frontline stuff). Therefore, I’d think the Brewers would be willing to pay a little extra to get arguably the best and most reliable pitcher on the trade market (which is why Harden would likely be excluded, due to his injury history).

Just my 2 cents. :-)